Potential Ukrainian gains around Svatove
From the looks of things this morning, it was either a recon. unit, or a push that Russia repelled - or possibly Russians spooking at nothing much.
Early (Russian) reports suggested that Ukraine had reached Nyzhnia Duvanka on the Krasna River and P66 main road North to Russia (an advance of 12 miles and of game-changing importance) have reduced down to attacks on Kuzemivka, Kyslivka and Orlyanske - which were previously under artillery attack.
Of course, Ukraine weren't claiming the advance in the first place, and Russian sources don't seem to have panicked about being outflanked at all - so probably a nothing-burger.
Weather seems to be really closing in now; so we really can't expect any more big advances like we saw in September.
Given Russian issues with basic supplies, and their non-existence; I can't imagine this being a fun time to be a Russian soldier in Ukraine - but equally, Ukraine will likely be very limited in what they can do about it to actually take territory.
Suspicion is that Ukraine will want to establish fire control over the P66 (Svatove to Kreminina) and it's adjacent railway as a realistic goal; and actual manned control over 1-2 villages on that route as an optimistic goal, maybe mopping up a few villages on the P07 (Kupyansk to Svatove). Personally, I'm still impressed they tried to push on past the Zherebets river, and they may still have to retreat back to it (and are pretty close from having been pushed back there currently).
Kherson, of course, is anyone's guess - they might clear right along the Dnipro, they might hold current lines, they might up to the city / Inhulets R, or anything in between. The only thing I don't see happening, is Russia making any significant advances anywhere - so long as Ukraine continues receiving Western aid.
Losses and Wounded figures
Looking again at that post about Russian and Ukrainian losses.
Russia sent 200k men in, in February.
60-70k of them are dead, deserted or captured.
70-80k of them are moderately or severely wounded, meaning a return to service somewhere between 3M and never.
50-60k of them lightly wounded, meaning to return to action measured in weeks.
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