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A Political Thread pt. 2

Zahawi, Patel and Gove now backing Rishi. This will be over this morning I reckon with Mordaunt throwing the towel in.
 
The Oggmonster said:
Not sure if it will happen but I'd love to see the party break up. The Tory membership is not representative of the parliamentary party. Any future leadership election will see the membership vote for Boris or someone on the right wing. Centre right candidates only have a chance of winning if it's a coronation amongst MPs as it looks now with Sunak.
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Its always been an issue but have ever seen a generational gap like this one? We know the average age of Tory members are above retirement age. Yet most MP's are not so don't really subscibe to their world view. Although they are closer than the working populace at large who are fundamentally anti-Tory. The gap seams massive though especially when you get to 55's and younger who just want to the polar opposite.

I'd also struggle to call Sunak center-right he's very much right wing economically he's just libertarian as opposed to authoritarian.
 
ncurd said:
Its always been an issue but have ever seen a generational gap like this one? We know the average age of Tory members are above retirement age. Yet most MP's are not so don't really subscibe to their world view. Although they are closer than the working populace at large who are fundamentally anti-Tory. The gap seams massive though especially when you get to 55's and younger who just want to the polar opposite.

I'd also struggle to call Sunak center-right he's very much right wing economically he's just libertarian as opposed to authoritarian.
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The Labour Party membership is considerably larger so the figures are hard to compare. The average age of MP's is between 50-59. Once voters hit 39 the swing to Conservative is massive based on 2019 voting figures. Once the working population hits the family years, pensions, mortgage etc it would appear they start to change sides.
 
Saintjay said:
The Labour Party membership is considerably larger so the figures are hard to compare. The average age of MP's is between 50-59. Once voters hit 39 the swing to Conservative is massive based on 2019 voting figures. Once the working population hits the family years, pensions, mortgage etc it would appear they start to change sides.
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It changes but the swing isn't massive just a steady progression, the numbers always look weird because 18-29 are two sperate groups instead of one like other age groups. The key thing is you have to to the 50+ before the majority of the age group isn't voting for progressive parties. Correlate that with the steady swing and you hit about 55+ before you get a majority possibly a bit older as its 52% in the 50-59 bracket.

Also anecdotally most Tories I've met who are below the retirement age are free-market libertarians or one nation types. The real racist/homophobic underbelly is in those older generations.

1666600573686.png
 
The Oggmonster said:
Not sure if it will happen but I'd love to see the party break up. The Tory membership is not representative of the parliamentary party. Any future leadership election will see the membership vote for Boris or someone on the right wing. Centre right candidates only have a chance of winning if it's a coronation amongst MPs as it looks now with Sunak.

We really need a non-binary set up with more political parties to choose from (Far right, centre right, centre left and far left etc.) even if it means more coalition governments in the future. Broad church parties are starting to fail.
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Really we need to move to some sort of PR system for this to happen. I can't think of an FPTP system anywhere in the world that isn't just dominated by 2 parties due to the nature of it.

ncurd said:
It changes but the swing isn't massive just a steady progression, the numbers always look weird because 18-29 are two sperate groups instead of one like other age groups. The key thing is you have to to the 50+ before the majority of the age group isn't voting for progressive parties. Correlate that with the steady swing and you hit about 55+ before you get a majority possibly a bit older as its 52% in the 50-59 bracket.

Also anecdotally most Tories I've met who are below the retirement age are free-market libertarians or one nation types. The real racist/homophobic underbelly is in those older generations.

View attachment 15329
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Usually the way, people hark back to the "good old days" and view the past through a nostalgic and rarely accurate lens. They then go for a party which also is stuck in this nostalgic view of the past and how this new fangled stuff is all bad, like not being racist and invading countries and stealing their resources now being frowned upon. Considering the damage the Tories are doing to things that affect people in these age groups (mortgages and pensions) it's staggering how many would still vote for them. Also it's a mentality I've never quite understood where the young get screwed over by a government but the older generations will continue voting for them, even though it is often their own offspring who are suffering as a result of their votes.
 
ncurd said:
He'll be gone in a day or five, can't see Sunak keeping him on board. He'll appeal to the Baker's in the ERG
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It's a question of what his replacement wants to do - I didn't get a chance to read far into the article to see if it addressed that, as I had to do some actual work :(
 
Tallshort said:
Yeah, that's a reason why some people stopped voting Labour....Iraq
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Don't think so TBH. Played a role but I think the real reason they switched is because of the financial crash that was shortly before the election. The Iraq war will hang over Labour for a while but I think everyone involved in that decision is gone now. Lib Dems were torpedoed by their idiotic decision to raise tuition fees after explicitly stating they wouldn't. Tories on the other hand can go back on their promises all the time and it isn't held against them by their voter base, at least not until now. The difference in the amount of damage the Tories need to do before their base abandons them is part of the reason this country is so screwed up and why we need more right wing alternatives. There needs to be something that right wing voters can turn to apart from the Tories that isn't itself a far-right extremist alternative.

I did some calculations a while back and found that left wing parties collectively were consistently getting a higher share of the vote than right wing parties collectively in this country, yet it was translating into right wing governments the majority of the time. That is a sign of a dysfunctional system (The USA is the same, Republicans haven't achieve a majority of voter support in about 2 decades yet have been in power for over half that time).
 
Sunak it is, just needs to announce a general election but don't think he'll do so until May next year.
 
There seems to be a concerted effort from the Conservative Party to paint Sunak as a "normal bloke done good" as if having parents able to cover £33k a year school fees (currently) is a situation that many / most children in the country find themselves in is symptomatic of either how out of touch they are or how stupid they think we are to blindly swallow it.
 
TRF_Olyy said:
www.cityam.com

Brexit opportunities minister Jacob Rees-Mogg: I would refuse to serve in 'socialist' Rishi Sunak's cabinet - City AM

Boris Johnson ally Jacob Rees-Mogg has branded Rishi Sunak a 'socialist’ and refused to serve in his cabinet should he become PM. The Brexit-backing Writing in the Daily Mail, Rees-Mogg who alongside Nadine Dorries is a backer of Liz Truss in the leadership contest, said Truss “rejected the path...
www.cityam.com www.cityam.com
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And I absolutely refuse to have a threesome with Jessica Alba and Tessa Thompson!
It's a matter of principal, you see

(I have a feeling I made the same joke at the time)
 
oh there has been some interesting quotes from the nut job wing of the party. Will be interesting to see if they follow through with their threats to not play along.
 

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