A Political Thread pt. 2

[Gavin]

It's always amazed me how local elections in England can compare to General Elections.

Like realistically the English public wouldn't vote for Starmer above Johnson as Prime Minister, would they?

Local elections IMO mean nothing when compared to GE

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Agreed with all of that - barring Farron not being a problem

Swinson's approval ratings went from 23% finding her bad or very bad to 45% in just 6 months as an opposition leader. That's about as bad as it can possibly get. 'Sir' Ed is nothing special, but he's a massive upgrade by default on that shambolic pair.

Jo Swinson approval rating

Do you think Jo Swinson is doing well or badly as leader of the Liberal Democrats?

yougov.co.uk

Tories are now the 5th largest party on Edinburgh council.

 

[ncurd]

Swinson's approval ratings went from 23% finding her bad or very bad to 45% in just 6 months as an opposition leader. That's about as bad as it can possibly get. 'Sir' Ed is nothing special, but he's a massive upgrade by default on that shambolic pair.

Yeah Swinson just got no bedding in time and was immediately thrust into possibly one the most constutionally complex arguments I can remember. She was advised extremely badly and made poor decisions. Better advisors and maybe more time before general election may of helped her.

This sisnt to say she was great just dealt a pretty rough hand most people would of struggled with.

Reality is we needed a coalition government of Tory backbenches and everyone else but the DUP and they couldn't agree on a single unifying figure. Sadly only one guy was saying they should be in charge and it wasn't Letwin, Swinson, ChangeUK or Blackford that was the road block.

 

[Which Tyler]

We're pretty much done now, just 2 councils left to declare (Croydon & Tower Hamlets).

Lab +139 (4.8%) - have done... reasonably well (remember, we're comparing with before their vote fell away in 2019)
Con -490 (26.4%) - have done disastrously, though they'll try to spin it differently, the initial 1 in 5 was bad, but 1 in 4 is a disaster.
LDs +222 (34.4%) - have done really well, and finally seem to be putting the coalition behind them
Grn +76 (105.6%) - the big success story of the day
SNP +22 (5.1%) - they'll be happy enough with that - they've got about a third of all seats in Scotland, so there's not really much room to grow
PC -6 (2.9) - have obviously lost ground to labour's resurgence in Wales

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

What's with all the independents in Wales? And are England and Wales also using STV for local elections? I assume so given the signs of life in the Greens (many peoples inoffensive second choice).

 

[ncurd]

Can one of the Irish folks explain to me why Sinn Féin returning the exact same number of councillors is the only story rather than any stories about Alliances gains?

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

“No One Would Know It Was Us”: Trump Thought He Could Fire Missiles Into Mexico and Blame It on Another Country

According to former defense secretary Mark Esper, Trump insisted such an operation could be done “quietly” and no one would be the wiser.

www.vanityfair.com

Turns out Trump openly asked about firing missiles into Mexico on more than one occasion and also floated the idea of bringing the military into Washington DC to simply shoot protesters... Staggering that he still has supporters who insist he is a great president. He is a complete megalomaniac who would turn the USA into a dictatorship if he could. Turns out all that talk about Trumps dictatorial tendencies were not hyperbole, he really did want to do this ****.

 

[Gavin]

Can one of the Irish folks explain to me why Sinn Féin returning the exact same number of councillors is the only story rather than any stories about Alliances gains?

Probably because it's the first time a Nationalist party topped the polls in terms of seats taken and first preference votes, beating the Unionist lot.

It's probably also more in the media than Alliance because of Sinn Feins links to the IRA and clear national agenda putting more focus on the possible of a united Ireland in the north and a move away from the UK (though I think more votes still went to unionist parties than nationalist parties)

IMO the Alliance gains are more important for Northern Ireland as it's clear there's a massive centre ground of perhaps don't see themselves as nationalist or unionist, but as they refer to themselves as 'other', they'd struggle to get a First Leader role even if they were the second largest party.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

I would be surprised if we see a United ireland within the next 20 years amazed in the next decade.
NI is heading more central now it will take a while for those to then go further.

How much of this is DUP etc imploding on themselves in the most spectacular way and how much is it down to not wanting to be in the uk?

Saying that considering Brexit has already diminished our global power I don't get why people are still so attached to NI in this country.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I would be surprised if we see a United ireland within the next 20 years amazed in the next decade.
NI is heading more central now it will take a while for those to then go further.

How much of this is DUP etc imploding on themselves in the most spectacular way and how much is it down to not wanting to be in the uk?

Saying that considering Brexit has already diminished our global power I don't get why people are still so attached to NI in this country.

I think it's a move towards people of NI voting for what is good for NI rather than for their side of the nationalist/unionist divide. That's an important shift because the best thing for NI is undoubtedly to become Ireland, partition hasn't worked, there's a list longer than my arm of reasons why.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

I think it's a move towards people of NI voting for what is good for NI rather than for their side of the nationalist/unionist divide. That's an important shift because the best thing for NI is undoubtedly to become Ireland, partition hasn't worked, there's a list longer than my arm of reasons why.

I mean it's the best thing for the us as well IMO.
I think Ireland will unify in my lifetime but I just don't see it being as near as quick media etc are suggesting after this.

I think people will see a NI that is far more willing to want to worth with Ireland.

 

[McTallshort]

I mean it's the best thing for the us as well IMO.
I think Ireland will unify in my lifetime but I just don't see it being as near as quick media etc are suggesting after this.

I think people will see a NI that is far more willing to want to worth with Ireland.

Hasn't that already happened with Brexit etc?

At the moment NI is just a problem. It's a problem for the UK politically, it's a problem for Brexit in terms of trade agreements and it's a problem for Eire in terms of smuggling fuel etc. What will fix these problems? Just unite it with the south.

20 years ago you could rightly argue that most people in NI wanted to remain part of the UK but lots has changed since then: Eire has become much more economically prosperous, the average attitude from most people in NI has softened and being in the UK just isn't what it used to be. Also speaking as an Englishman NI is a bit of a enigma to me. Abortion, hard-line religious politics and a mindset that seems focused on the past not the future. These are problems that Eire has wrestled with since it's independence and has gotten through them and moved forward, as such are in a better place to solve such problems than a British government.

Just my thoughts

 

[Which Tyler]

I hope he's right.
If so, my emotions don't include sympathy

 

[Amiga500]

How much of this is DUP etc imploding on themselves in the most spectacular way and how much is it down to not wanting to be in the uk?

So the DUP voters splintered off in two other directions
- TUV - even more hardline nutcases (yeah, they do exist). They'll always be up in arms over a united Ireland. Many of them literally up in arms.
- Alliance - middle ground. unionists with a small "u" - the people that quite possibly could be persuaded by the economic case of a united Ireland.

Some of that is the self-inflicted wounds of the DUP (i) the billion pound corruption that was RHI and (ii) their idiotic positioning and strategy on Brexit*.


Brexit has definitely moved a border poll forward by 20+ years. In 2015 I'd never have seen us talking about it like we are right now.

Today, would a border poll succeed? With an extremely well run campaign, it just might. But even if it did pass, it'd be a fuking disaster. 'cos we (the island) aren't ready** - I don't think we'll be ready within a decade either.
**not ready socially, not ready with legislation, not ready with public services etc etc


There is a shitload of work that needs done first. Brexit is a case in point for running something half-cocked then being the rabbit in the headlights after getting the change you wanted but not being at all prepared for that change.

To that end, the Dail at this point really does need to acknowledge SF's calls for a citizen's assembly as something that cannot be kicked down the road. That assembly would start greasing the rails and planning for what would happen in event of a border poll result for a united Ireland. It really can't be slung together last minute.


*If the DUP had played their cards right, they would have almost guaranteed NI in perpetuity - they would have obtained a best of both worlds by having one foot in the EU and one foot outside. The place could well have become a massive trade hub and no economic voter would ever have sprung for a UI. Indeed, the ROI wouldn't have wanted it as they'd have been on the gravy train too. But they were too f**king stupid to realise that. So instead shot themselves in both feet, both knees and probably both femoral arteries too. Their decisions will be a case study in 50 years of how not to do strategic thinking.

 

[Amiga500]

<Admiral Makarov>

Apparently fake news I'm afraid.

 

[Groundhog]

Shinners will be clever enough not to push for unity immediately I'd imagine. They'll probably want to consolidate a bit/ let the DUP try to subvert democracy and claim that the world is only 3000 years old.

 

[The Seeker]

Putin is pure Evil.

Up to 60 feared dead after Russian bomb hits Ukrainian school, local governor says

Up to 60 feared dead after Russian bomb hits Ukrainian school, local governor says

news.yahoo.com

 

[The Seeker]

“No One Would Know It Was Us”: Trump Thought He Could Fire Missiles Into Mexico and Blame It on Another Country

According to former defense secretary Mark Esper, Trump insisted such an operation could be done “quietly” and no one would be the wiser.

www.vanityfair.com

Turns out Trump openly asked about firing missiles into Mexico on more than one occasion and also floated the idea of bringing the military into Washington DC to simply shoot protesters... Staggering that he still has supporters who insist he is a great president. He is a complete megalomaniac who would turn the USA into a dictatorship if he could. Turns out all that talk about Trumps dictatorial tendencies were not hyperbole, he really did want to do this ****.

Trump is a moron. I never liked him before he ran for President in 2016 and I dislike him more now. If he wins in 2024, can I rent a room from you in England?

 

[The Seeker]

 

[The Seeker]