I agree Scotland have a reasonable chance of 3rd, but personally I think that says more about the decline of Wales and (to a lesser extent) Ireland than it does about the Scots.
They have a decent squad and on their day, they can be very good, but I'm not sure how good they really are?
In recent times, they've beaten a poor Welsh team and a French team that would probably have won but for a dumb red card. They also beat Italy, which is almost a given, but only by 17 points.
I'm not dismissing them as a threat. Watson, Russell and Hogg are on song, they can be very dangerous and van der Merwe is a great addition, despite not being in the least bit Scottish.
That said, their midfield is weak and for this 6N, they are missing their first and second choice hookers, which will inevitably affect the quality of their set piece.
I'm definitely not complacent about it, but I would be disappointed if we were to lose.