[2015 Six Nations] Ireland vs England (Round 3)

[Leonormous Boozer]

You're putting a lot of faith in O'Brien carrying anywhere near as well as he did before his injury.
vs France he had 6 carries for 3 metres and looked well off the pace (or at least compared to his usual standards). This is to be expected after such a long lay off, but I doubt an extra week of conditioning is going to improve this drastically, especially as there was no game time during it.

I think that's exactly what the week will do! O'Brien limited himself to 6 carries in a game, he wasn't fully fit but needed to play to gain it. I reckon O'Brien will be at about 85-90% next week.

but that's not how France scored their try, it was counter attack and intense pace in the wide channels - they literally ran backwards to avoid contact at times and keep the ball alive.

They didn't batter ireland until they ran out of defenders (which is how i read what you're saying)

There's been a misunderstanding here, if I recall correctly (from Murray Kinsella's analysis) the phase before the French try, France had a 4 on 3 while on the other side of the pitch Ireland had 6 players on 2 French players. This is very uncharicteristic and to me would suggest physical or mental fatigue or both after the battering received from the likes of Lamerat, Fofana, Basta, Huget and the French pack. And whereas England are better in every other way than France they aren't quite as brutal!

 

[big ginger 8]

I suspect we're going to use a much more open gameplan than we have thus far. We ran it a lot last year against England and I think with all the talk about our kicking game from the England camp it will catch them off guard. Most of our forwards aren't really the type that will win much ground in tight despite what Cmac was saying. I'm also somewhat doubtful of Healy starting as he still only has about 50 minutes in total. Murphy is far better in midfield where he can pick a line and run at weak shoulders because he is really quite light to play 8 internationally.

Sexton also will now have that much more sharpened decision making and himself, Henshaw and Payne have another game together hopefully letting them start to grow past the simple rugby.

Of course are kicking game will still be prominent but I expect us to be more willing to go through the phases. Although we did to that a bit against France in order to play on Thomas' inexperience to get him into the line.

On defence as usual I expect our ground game to be vital, six of our starting pack and four of our subs are all very good at getting over the ball, this allied with the choke tackle will hopefully stop the English getting the quick ball and space that comes with it that the likes of Joseph can be so dangerous in.

 

[msf]

Both the Irish ball-carriers mentioned are coming back from injury. I haven't seen the stats but I imagine Haskell has made more yards than either of them in the first two games. I am not saying that Haskell is a better ball-carrier, he isn't, just that injuries have affected both sides ball-carrying ability (Tuilagi, Heaslip, Lawes)

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And I haven't seen Ireland's main advantage mentioned: that they have one of the world's best coaches (rather than team managers) in charge.

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Oops, Olly made same point about O'Brien, my mistake.

 

[big ginger 8]

@munstermuffin any word on TO'D's concussion? With Diack out, if TO'D's out we're going way down the pecking order unless they moved Henderson to 20 and Mike Mc to 19.

 

[Groundhog]

Billy Holland has been called up. So has Wilson. Wow. Good for them I guess.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

@munstermuffin any word on TO'D's concussion? With Diack out, if TO'D's out we're going way down the pecking order unless they moved Henderson to 20 and Mike Mc to 19.

Any chance on Rhys Ruddock? Dominic Ryan would probably be in otherwise, not a huge drop from Diack or TO'D.

 

[bw245]

Can't be good if billy Holland has been called...

 

[big ginger 8]

Billy Holland has been called up. So has Wilson. Wow. Good for them I guess.

Nothing more than tackle bag holders.

Any chance on Rhys Ruddock? Dominic Ryan would probably be in otherwise, not a huge drop from Diack or TO'D.

Doubt it, his arm is still heavily strapped and don't think Schmidt would risk it. Yeah forgot about Ryan. Panic over.


EDIT: Here's the squad:

Best, Cronin, Strauss
Healy, McGrath, Ross, Moore
Toner, O'Connell, Henderson, McCarthy, Holland
O'Mahony, Murphy, O'Brien, O'Donnell, Ryan, Wilson

Murray, Boss, Reddan
Sexton, Madigan, Keatley
Henshaw, Payne, D'Arcy, Cave
Zebo, Bowe, Fitzgerald, Earls, Dave Kearney
Rob Kearney, Jones

 

[msf]

Ok, time for another debate: if you could pick one player from the other side, who would you pick?

I would pick Murray since he is much better than our scrum-halves.

 

[goodNumber10]

There's been a misunderstanding here, if I recall correctly (from Murray Kinsella's analysis) the phase before the French try, France had a 4 on 3 while on the other side of the pitch Ireland had 6 players on 2 French players. This is very uncharicteristic and to me would suggest physical or mental fatigue or both after the battering received from the likes of Lamerat, Fofana, Basta, Huget and the French pack. And whereas England are better in every other way than France they aren't quite as brutal!

yes, but I think that came from being moved at pace and chasing the linebreaks, not from being sent backwards and adding to the breakdowns and thus tired.

Just to be clear, it's the 70th minute or so, so I'm sure they were tired, but that try was a counter attack for certain. Huget caught the ball, they moved left to Fofana and then swung it right to Huget who danced around for a bit then brought it back infield - then they spun it wide.

It was one of the rare occasions France held their width and didn't run head first into the Irish wall of defenders.

 

[Every Time Ref]

Our best chance at the breakdown will be to hit it hard I think. Although I'm much happier with Haskell-Vunipola-Robshaw in terms of over the ball work than I was in the autumn (Vunipola, although nothing to write home about, has improved there), we can't expect to match O'Mahony and O'Brien there so should look to blast over them rather than matching them for technique and guile. Obviously it's a lot easier to say "we should blast over O'Brien" than it is to blast over O'Brien, but still. In theory ...

I'm actually starting to think that in the long term the best thing to come out of this 6 Nations for England might be Billy Vunipola - I was worried about him returning when Morgan broke his leg, but although his carrying hasn't been as fearsome as it was in the past he has improved other areas of his game to make himself a much more rounded player. In future, that is very positive for us. When he lost his place in the autumn, the three big criticisms were 1) one trick pony; 2) poor fitness; and 3) he's being targeted as the main ball carrier. I think he's shown real improvements in terms of all three of those, which is what you want to see from your players - going away and working on their weaknesses.

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yes, but I think that came from being moved at pace and chasing the linebreaks, not from being sent backwards and adding to the breakdowns and thus tired.

Just to be clear, it's the 70th minute or so, so I'm sure they were tired, but that try was a counter attack for certain. Huget caught the ball, they moved left to Fofana and then swung it right to Huget who danced around for a bit then brought it back infield - then they spun it wide.

It was one of the rare occasions France held their width and didn't run head first into the Irish wall of defenders.

Agree with this.

It's about mixing it up - they scored by holding their width, but Ireland's tired legs and poor positioning was achieved by the power game they'd been soaking up for 70 minutes. If they were able to mix it up in a more sophisticated way than 70 mins of A followed by 10 minutes of B, France could be seriously good, and England could have some success doing that.

 

[bw245]

Ok, time for another debate: if you could pick one player from the other side, who would you pick?

I would pick Murray since he is much better than our scrum-halves.

JJ! He's unreal

 

[Every Time Ref]

Ok, time for another debate: if you could pick one player from the other side, who would you pick?

I would pick Murray since he is much better than our scrum-halves.

Good question! Good answer too, I think I'd have to agree, but for the sake of keeping it interesting I'll give another answer. Maybe Tommy Bowe? Wing is our other area of difficulty and he is a proven international class performer. I also really rate O'Mahony, but I don't think we "need" a class flanker in the same way we do a winger.

 

[munstermuffin]

@munstermuffin any word on TO'D's concussion? With Diack out, if TO'D's out we're going way down the pecking order unless they moved Henderson to 20 and Mike Mc to 19.

Worked with him Sunday on just streches and aerobic. He felt fine but as is always he'll have to ace every test. I think his case was more being cautious given it's the subject now rather than being bad. I'd expect him to be ready myself. As I said I was hearing Henderson is the much bigger doubt. And as was said Ruddock hasn't much hope of being near this game. The arm would be dangerously weak and well this isn't the game to really risk it all in terms of he still has a european campaign and RWC to think about.

FWIW as was said Holland is there just as cover. I 100% expect us to have him and few others back for our game vs Glasgow on Saturday night. Well they'll be back here for Thursday.

Also just noticed Ferg McFaddem completely left out.

 

[msf]

Yeah, I thought about Bowe, Sexton and Kearney, but in my opinion Watson, Ford and Brown are at a similar level, if not quite as experienced.

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Oh, and I would have O'Brien over Robshaw, if both are fit, but then I would have a true openside over both of them so this is less tempting.

 

[Every Time Ref]

Yeah, I thought about Bowe, Sexton and Kearney, but in my opinion Watson, Ford and Brown are at a similar level, if not quite as experienced.

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Oh, and I would have O'Brien over Robshaw, if both are fit, but then I would have a true openside over both of them so this is less tempting.

To be honest I see O'Brien as more similar to Haskell - if I was replacing one English back row with one Irish back row that's the change I would be considering (depending on whether we're talking form right now or ability at full match fitness)

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

Meh...definitely Murray to be honest...up until a few months ago it would have been Sexton every time, but Ford is looking exciting. Bowe and Watson as wings would be great!

 

[Every Time Ref]

Composite side?

Murray-Sexton-Watson-Henshaw-Joseph-Bowe-Kearney would be my backs. Burrell / Henshaw was tricky, both have their attributes but neither are really setting the world alight at the moment. Fullback would've been trickier if Brown was fit.

 

[big ginger 8]

Composite side?

Murray-Sexton-Watson-Henshaw-Joseph-Bowe-Kearney would be my backs. Burrell / Henshaw was tricky, both have their attributes but neither are really setting the world alight at the moment. Fullback would've been trickier if Brown was fit.

Probably what I'd pick but if Fitzgerald comes in for Zebo I'd have him ahead of Watson.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

yes, but I think that came from being moved at pace and chasing the linebreaks, not from being sent backwards and adding to the breakdowns and thus tired.

Just to be clear, it's the 70th minute or so, so I'm sure they were tired, but that try was a counter attack for certain. Huget caught the ball, they moved left to Fofana and then swung it right to Huget who danced around for a bit then brought it back infield - then they spun it wide.

It was one of the rare occasions France held their width and didn't run head first into the Irish wall of defenders.

Fair enough, I think it's a bit to out of character to be put down to the French suddenly having the Irish defences number. Probably a mix of both being honest.

Probably what I'd pick but if Fitzgerald comes in for Zebo I'd have him ahead of Watson.

Agree with this, as for an English player over an Irish one Dan Cole pls...