Hi everyone,
I think that Gatland announcing the team this early is just that 80% of the side picks itself, and the other ones won't change with the side PSA names.
Saint-André, on the contrary, things he's playing some kind of cunning mind game delaying the naming of the team as much as possible. He announced changes after last game, and in the end kept pretty much the same 30, except for the injured Kockott.
On the front row, the replacements have made an impact, so people have been calling for them to start. But that won't happen, at least as far as the props are concerned. Debaty has played a lot under PSA, but always as an impact player, and Atonio has admitted he doesn't have the legs to play more than 30 minutes at international level. So Ben Arous and Slimani it will be. Kayser may start, but him and Guirado are pretty much the same.
Papé is not available, which greatly increases the chances of playing 80 minutes with 15 players. Maestri is sure to start, and the other lock is likely to be Taofifenua, as he has been more involved in the team than Vahaamahina and Suta lately. On the backrow, frenchman Leroux has been the best player so he stays, Dusautoir will stay despite his lack of form, and Chouly will start because he's the lineout captain. So the pack will be pretty much the same as in the previous games.
A few thoughts on this: Slimani has been very disappointing. He's been destroying scrums all year, but hasn't taken that to the international level (the ref was a bit harsh on him against Ireland imo, but still). Also, maybe PSA has called in Suta as a potential lineout captain to put pressure on Chouly. For years our lineout depended on Bonnaire and Harinordoquy, so we developed a whole generation of non-jumping locks, and now we're paying for it, being stuck with Chouly instead of a normal number 8.
On the backs, Dulin will probably start (yey!), with Spedding dropping from the 23 altogether. Huget will start too, as he has been the only half-threatening back this year. Fofana will start too, and I can't see Tales or Plisson starting in Lopez's place, though I can see Plisson taking Tales' place in the bench. It's a toss up between Bastareaud and Lamerat, the one not starting probably on the bench. And on the other wing, I think PSA will give Guitoune (or Nakaitaci) a chance. Kockott is not in the 30, but Tillous-Borde is back from injury so Parra is not sure to start.
So it will look something like this:
Ben Arous, Kayser, Mas; Maestri, Taofifenua; Dusautoir, Leroux, Chouly; Parra, Lopez, Guitoune, Fofana, Bastareaud, Huget, Dulin.
Bench: Guirado, Debaty, Atonio, Vahaamahina, Goujon, Tillous-Borde, Plisson, Lamerat.