2014 Six Nations: Wales

[Draggs]

I am bored and figured the EOYT has run its course for Wales discussion, so lets talk 2014 now.
Some major points:
-Can Wales make history with three consecutive ***les?
-Adam Jones and his backup, Mitchell, Andrews, Jones, Lee?
-Tipuric v Warburton (v Lydiate?)
-Mike Phillips and his backup, uh... help?
-Dan Biggar v Rhys Priestland
-Alternative midfield/back three combinations

Possibly. France are France and we play them at MillStad. We start and finish against Italy and Scotland, and have one of the big matches in between the bye weeks. England at Twickenham and Ireland at Aviva aren't places we are afraid of, so it all comes down the match. Ireland are a huge question mark, going from being crushed by Aus to nearly beating NZ in spectacular fashion. This is one of the years where I care less about winning the tournament and would rather develop some depth and get the squad ready for 2015. That being said, three on the trot would be an impressive achievement, and not worth overlooking.

I am worried about our tightheads going into 2015. Adam Jones has had the role for nearly a decade, and whenever he has been injured, it has been a point of weakness. He spends more time injured each year, and must be carefully managed. Craig Mitchell has looked decent but also suffers from injuries at the wrong time. Scott Andrews has never shown anything beyond being 'less dire than thought', and unfortunately hasn't improved since he was brought in the squad in 2010. Samson Lee is likely the future, but is 2015 too soon? He has had the nod over Rhodri Jones, a convereted loosehead, for the Scarlets, but not for Wales. Jones was respectable and put in a good shift in the loose this November. I would like to see him and Lee given more chances in 2014.

Going purely on regional form, Tipuric has eclipsed all others for the past two seasons. With Lydiate struggling for gametime in France, I'd consider Warburton and Tipuric together, with Lydiate an option in game we want to play at a slower pace. Ryan Jones has had mixed form, but not worth casting away just yet.

Phillips has his fair share of detractors, but nobody is really there to push him out. Lloyd Williams has gone backwards, while Richie Rees is a lost cause with the current staff (despite excellent performances, much like the ignored Jonathan Evans last year). Rhodri Williams might have taken over from Lloyd, we will have to see.

Dan Biggar has not reached the heights of the past few seasons, but he has been in an increasingly weak backline. Still out number one standoff. Better distribution than given credit for, and less likely to make a glaring error than Priestland.

Scott Williams, despite not being a Gatland inside centre, always looks threatening. I think Cory Allen will push him, offering the bulk that we like at second five. His Blues teammate Owen Williams is likely to provide cover further out, if Davies is injured. Ashley Beck has struggled with form recently.

Liam Williams can be a penalty risk, but doesn't lack commitment. Eli Wales will be one to watch when he returns to form, while Harry Robinson still needs to hit that next level. Gatland seems to have a soft spot for Prydie, praising his commitment in the recent training squad before pulling out injured. Young Dragon Hallam Amos didn't disappoint v Tonga and will look for more international honours.

EDIT. Got overeager and submitted this without my squad.
Looking ahead, this is a wider training squad I'd select for 2014 (~three per position, alphabetical by last name).

LH Prop:
Ryan Bevington
Paul James
Gethin Jenkins

TH Prop:
Adam Jones
Rhodri Jones
Samson Lee

Hooker:
Richard Hibbard
Ken Owens
Emyr Phillips

Second Row:
Jake Ball
Luke Charteris
Bradley Davies
Ian Evans
Alun Wyn Jones
James King (can cover flanker)

Blindside Flanker:
Ryan Jones
Dan Lydiate

Openside Flanker:
Justin Tipuric
Sam Warburton

Number 8:
Morgan Allen
Toby Faletau

Scrum Half:
Mike Phillips
Lloyd Williams
Rhodri Williams

Standoff:
Dan Biggar
Rhys Priestland

Centre:
Cory Allen
Jonathan Davies
Jamie Roberts
Owen Williams
Scott Williams

Outside Back:
Hallam Amos
Alex Cuthbert
Leigh Halfpenny
George North
Eli Wales
Liam Williams

Standby:
Craig Mitchell
Sam Parry
Andrew Coombes
Sam Lewis
Gareth Davies
Rhys Patchell
Ashley Beck
Jordan Williams

 

[Big Ewis]

lol I love how you've just conceded at this point "France...........*deep sigh*........France are France." you're not even attempting any sort of prognostic or prediction at all !

Yehhhh well Wales ain't winning it for a third straight time buddy, sorry for the reality check here !...
you know where this is going, don't you ?...this year...
































Italy is winning.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I think Wales really could win it a 3rd time running but really hope they don't. Wales have been a settled team for quite a while now and can certainly beat any of the 6N sides if given the chance. However saying you aren't worried vs Ireland seems odd, they did you over last year and their performance against the ABs was pretty good. If they bring that game to the game against Wales, I think you should be very worried.

 

[UlsterRugby2012]

I think Wales really could win it a 3rd time running but really hope they don't. Wales have been a settled team for quite a while now and can certainly beat any of the 6N sides if given the chance. However saying you aren't worried vs Ireland seems odd, they did you over last year and their performance against the ABs was pretty good. If they bring that game to the game against Wales, I think you should be very worried.

And arguable should have won the previous 2 years as well. Wales have a decent chance I think, just as much as a England and Ireland. For some reason I can't see France winning, surely their poor form of most clubs will have a knock on effect eventually?

 

[Draggs]

I think Wales really could win it a 3rd time running but really hope they don't. Wales have been a settled team for quite a while now and can certainly beat any of the 6N sides if given the chance. However saying you aren't worried vs Ireland seems odd, they did you over last year and their performance against the ABs was pretty good. If they bring that game to the game against Wales, I think you should be very worried.

No, I said Aviva and Twickenham are places we shouldn't be afraid of, having won at both of those stadiums recently. Its not a "Wales haven't won here in X year" situation.

@Yoe/Ewis. I won't both analysing France, it will be terribly wrong and you'll bring it up in a few months to laugh at me.

 

[DuncTheDoodle]

I do think the Six Nations is the time to hit the highest level with the first XV rather than developing players, regardless of the year. However, I'd like to see the likes of Samson Lee and Cory Allen get gametime, as they're both nearing the required level in the regional game and with an extra boost could just up to full international standard very quickly.

Squad-wise I think we're looking at-

Loosehead is very well covered initially -Gethin and Paul James- but our third choice isn't ideal. Phil John is on outstanding form but is also 32. Bevington, a distinctly average scrumager before has been turned into a poor one by the new laws while Rhys Gill isn't getting much gametime behind Vunipola.
Hooker is a very similar situation. Hibbard and Ken are as good as anyone, but Emyr Phillips/Scott Baldwin aren't ideal. Baldwin is my preference, though the Welsh management seem to think otherwise.
Tighthead is improving, with Adam obviously head and shoulders above everyone else. Our next two options are Samson Lee and Craig Mitchell, one has he potential to be a ginger Adam Jones, whilst the other is a solid option who won't let us down. I'm relatively happy at the minute, but if Adam gets injured, it begs many questions.
Second row is well-covered, albiet difficult to select. AWJ again, the obvious selection, but any of Charteris, Coombsy, Bradley or Ianto could then take the other shirt. Healthy-ish position to be in, perhaps give Charteris a go, although I'd also love to see Coombs get another chance. James King is another good option.
Back row: Warburton, Tipuric, Lydiate, Ryan, Toby. Navidi and Shingler then hover in behind. Tidy. I'd go Warburton/Tipuric/Faletau as first-choice.
Mike Phillips at scrum half. Rhodri should be above his namesake Lloyd, but I hold Richie Rees deserves a recall. He's been fantastic for the Dragons and would be something different off the bench, whilst still being a smart player who's been around the block a few times.
Biggar. Unless... Patch.
North, Eli, Cuthbert nailed into the squad. Hanno Dirksen'll be qualified, too. Amos went well against Tonga, and Prydie's always a decent last resort. Harry Robinson needs to kick on. Sanjay is solid cover, too.
Centres are obviously going to be Roberts/Davies, but I think if Scott Williams can continue his form, he could work rather nicely as our 12, with a bit more dynamism than Roberts. If Cory Allen is back in time he's our next option. Although I do want everyone to stop for at least fourty-eight seconds and think about a SuperGav/Big George partnership.
Leigh Halfpenny. Sanjay, Lee Byrne, Hook, whatever. Leigh Halfpenny.

 

[Rich Taff]

Going to be interesting to see how Patchell develops. He's come on leaps and bounds the last 12 months, and imagine the size of the (fit)Welsh backline with him in it as well.

 

[Big Ewis]

I think Wales really could win it a 3rd time running but really hope they don't. Wales have been a settled team for quite a while now and can certainly beat any of the 6N sides if given the chance. However saying you aren't worried vs Ireland seems odd, they did you over last year and their performance against the ABs was pretty good. If they bring that game to the game against Wales, I think you should be very worried.

It's true, the only side that's been actually problematic to Wales recently has been Ireland. They really should've won that game if not for a stupid mistake I think by Kearney at home in 2012 but let the game slip in the last 10min stupidly, and then they actually were the only team to beat Wales and in Cardiff in last year's 6N.

Sure ppl would say Wales was still playing in their 8-game losing streak EOYT form, and Ireland were on form themselves that opening weekend before failing to win a game after that..
but still. France and England have been able to scare Wales a bit in the last two 6N, but it's truly Ireland that's been the worthiest foe.

I think Wales ought to be very wary of going to Dublin this year...

P.S.: I HATE ENGLAND, BARRRR AARRRRRR !!!! PIS S CONT SH SHYT FOK ARRR ARRR ARRRRRR !!!...

 

[Draggs]

It's true, the only side that's been actually problematic to Wales recently has been Ireland. They really should've won that game if not for a stupid mistake I think by Kearney at home in 2012 but let the game slip in the last 10min stupidly, and then they actually were the only team to beat Wales and in Cardiff in last year's 6N.

Sure ppl would say Wales was still playing in their 8-game losing streak EOYT form, and Ireland were on form themselves that opening weekend before failing to win a game after that..
but still. France and England have been able to scare Wales a bit in the last two 6N, but it's truly Ireland that's been the worthiest foe.

I think Wales ought to be very wary of going to Dublin this year...

P.S.: I HATE ENGLAND, BARRRR AARRRRRR !!!! PIS S CONT SH SHYT FOK ARRR ARRR ARRRRRR !!!...

No, I said Aviva and Twickenham are places we shouldn't be afraid of, having won at both of those stadiums recently. Its not a "Wales haven't won here in X year" situation.

Like I said, I didn't say we should take Ireland lightly, only that we have won in Dublin recently so it is not an impossible task.

 

[Rich Taff]

I'm always wary of going to Dublin, because Dubliners are thieves!

Every time I go there, I enter a pub, then wake up in a hotel room the next day after having my memories stolen, and with an empty wallet!

 

[Big Ewis]

like i said, i didn't say we should take ireland lightly, only that we have won in dublin recently so it is not an impossible task.

dude, why do you want to take ireland so lightly ?!!! Dude, don't you know they beat you last year, in caaaardiff blahblahblah....(...)
LIKE, DUDE ! DUUUUDE

 

[Draggs]

Dammit Yoe, go watch your horror movies already.

 

[Rich Taff]

Dammit Yoe, go watch your horror movies already.

May I suggest last years Italy v France game?

 

[Big Ewis]

May I suggest last years Italy v France game?

oh, awwww, just uncalled for there !
but nice one....sneaky.....but good.

 

[Draggs]

 

[Big Ewis]

meanwhile, in.......Hillbill-ton ?

Anyways. I get a feeling not too many ppl want to discuss 6N Rugby from now til about mid/end of Jan when players are discussed in articles and teams announced and all...it's just such a long wait though.

Just a quick stat paragraph concerning Wales and their possible threepeat:
of course, winning the Six Nations three times in a row has never happened (most was back-to-back by England, France and now Wales once each), but dating back to the 5N the last time was France in 86-87-88-89 but two of those years they were tied with Scotland then Wales. And Wales had a higher Goal Avg. in 88 so it's not even really 3 or 4 straight by today's tournament standards.
The last outright 3-straight-times winner was........never.
lol at the 1973 5N. All five nations won.

Considering Goal Average (or pts diff.) as the distinguisher, Wales did win 3 in a row in 64-65-66.
France in 59-60-61-62.
Wales in 54-55-56.

 

[Maverick1987]

I do think the Six Nations is the time to hit the highest level with the first XV rather than developing players, regardless of the year. However, I'd like to see the likes of Samson Lee and Cory Allen get gametime, as they're both nearing the required level in the regional game and with an extra boost could just up to full international standard very quickly.

Squad-wise I think we're looking at-

Loosehead is very well covered initially -Gethin and Paul James- but our third choice isn't ideal. Phil John is on outstanding form but is also 32. Bevington, a distinctly average scrumager before has been turned into a poor one by the new laws while Rhys Gill isn't getting much gametime behind Vunipola.
Hooker is a very similar situation. Hibbard and Ken are as good as anyone, but Emyr Phillips/Scott Baldwin aren't ideal. Baldwin is my preference, though the Welsh management seem to think otherwise.
Tighthead is improving, with Adam obviously head and shoulders above everyone else. Our next two options are Samson Lee and Craig Mitchell, one has he potential to be a ginger Adam Jones, whilst the other is a solid option who won't let us down. I'm relatively happy at the minute, but if Adam gets injured, it begs many questions.
Second row is well-covered, albiet difficult to select. AWJ again, the obvious selection, but any of Charteris, Coombsy, Bradley or Ianto could then take the other shirt. Healthy-ish position to be in, perhaps give Charteris a go, although I'd also love to see Coombs get another chance. James King is another good option.
Back row: Warburton, Tipuric, Lydiate, Ryan, Toby. Navidi and Shingler then hover in behind. Tidy. I'd go Warburton/Tipuric/Faletau as first-choice.
Mike Phillips at scrum half. Rhodri should be above his namesake Lloyd, but I hold Richie Rees deserves a recall. He's been fantastic for the Dragons and would be something different off the bench, whilst still being a smart player who's been around the block a few times.
Biggar. Unless... Patch.
North, Eli, Cuthbert nailed into the squad. Hanno Dirksen'll be qualified, too. Amos went well against Tonga, and Prydie's always a decent last resort. Harry Robinson needs to kick on. Sanjay is solid cover, too.
Centres are obviously going to be Roberts/Davies, but I think if Scott Williams can continue his form, he could work rather nicely as our 12, with a bit more dynamism than Roberts. If Cory Allen is back in time he's our next option. Although I do want everyone to stop for at least fourty-eight seconds and think about a SuperGav/Big George partnership.
Leigh Halfpenny. Sanjay, Lee Byrne, Hook, whatever. Leigh Halfpenny.

I agree on george North going in at centre but Gavin Henson ?!? He is currently playing for bath A team apparently and I think Carl fearns exposed his glass jaw just recently

 

[Big Ewis]

Considering Goal Average (or pts diff.) as the distinguisher, Wales did win 3 in a row in 64-65-66.
France in 59-60-61-62.
Wales in 54-55-56.

I'm bored so I'm just going to stir a bit of crap just now.

ahem, so basically the last time a team won three consecutive "outright" tournaments was in deed Wales from 64-66. Boy, that's almost as long ago as the last time Wales beat the All-Blacks !....
*drum roll*

 

[Draggs]

Welsh Regions, four to watch

We see more and more players going straight from U20 and Sevens directly into the national side these days. Some players might take a bit longer, yet we risk missing them out due to what sometimes seems to be an obsession with youth. I'll take a look at a player in each region whom I think are worth watching. Could they step up for country if asked?

Where? Scarlets
Who? Jake Ball
Position? Second Row
Why? Jake Ball was signed by the Scarlets ahead of the 2012/13 season from the Western Force youth team. The young lock qualifies for Wales through his Wrexham-born father. He is an abrasive forward, and at 6'7" he offers a change from the 'short' second rows that the U20 team has offered over the past few years.
How? It will be tough, with Lions captain Alun Wyn Jones a guaranteed selection, and one of Ian Evans, Luke Charteris, and Bradley Davies starting. He doesn't give us as good of a lineout option than the former two, and has tendency to pick up penalties, much like Davies. Being the 'right' side of 30 could go in Ball's favour. He most certainly should push Lou Reed out of the 'wider' squad, and offers more from a second row perspective than James King.


Where? Ospreys
Who? Morgan Allen
Position? Number Eight
Why? Former Pontypool backrow Allen lost out to Cross Keys rival Toby Faletau in Gwent as the number eight prospect. He was picked up by the Ospreys, and seems a leading candidate to take over from Ryan Jones at the back of the scrum, increasingly likely with his deployment to the blindside. Despite being shorter than his rival eights, Allen still offers bulk and true carrying ability.
How? As far as young eights go, Wales are lacking. Fellow Gwent forward Ieuan Jones is one to watch as well, but three years Morgan's junior. Ryan Jones is used mainly as a utility forward replacement for Wales these days, and no other regional eight apart from Faletau has impressed in recent times. He would be a better rival to Faletau than Rob McCusker and Andries Pretorius, who have all been capped at Eight over the past few months.

Where? Cardiff Blues
Who? Kristian Dacey
Position? Hooker
Why? Kristian Dacey has been given his chance to shine in unfortunate circumstances, with predecessor Matthew Rees taking leave due to cancer. Dacey has made the most of his opportunity to put in some eye-catching performances over recent weeks. A physical player, Dacey has stood out in a sometimes weak Cardiff pack. His powerful performances and increasingly long hair evoke comparisons to Welsh rival Richard Hibbard.
How? Lion Richard Hibbard and Scarlet Ken Owens have been fighting for starting hooker over the past few months, and it is tough to call one over the other. Beyond them, however, we lack a clear backup. Emyr Phillips and Scott Baldwin were capped against Japan, but both failed to impress. Dacey could push himself ahead and find himself in the Welsh squad come 2014.

Where? Newport Gwent Dragons
Who? Ross Wardle
Position? Centre
Why? Jack Dixon was set to lock himself into the inside centre position this season, with Wardle outside, but an injury put and end to that for the time being. Wardle was then shifted to inside centre, where he has excelled. An imposing figure, offering a mixture of size and pace, he has offered his former centre-partner a rival to the second five position.
How? We know Warren Gatland likes a physical inside centre. Jamie Roberts is undoubtedly first choice, but beyond him there is no candidate to execute the desired gameplan. Scott Williams has stood in admirably, but lacks the necessary size. Ashley Beck has suffered with form and injuries of late, while Cory Allen recently underwent shoulder surgery. Dixon was expected by many to take over from Roberts, but Wardle might shake things up.

 

[khaotix]

Rhys Webb should get a shot, personally I would rate him over both Lloyd and Rhodri.