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[2013 EOYT] New Zealand

Taylor will likely be used as a midfield option and bench cover.

I'm expecting the line up against Japan to now be:
1 Moody
2 Coles
3 Faumuina
4 Thrush
5 Bird
6 Luatua
7 Cane
8 Whitelock
9 Kerr-Barlow
10 Carter (c)
11 Piutau
12 Saili/Taylor
13 Crotty/Saili
14 Halai
15 Dagg

16 Mealamu
17 Crockett
18 Franks
19 Retallick
20 Messam
21 Perenara
22 Taylor/Crotty
23 Smith
 
So from the All Blacks squad announced is this a possible starting lineup v Japan?

1. Crockett
2. Coles
3. Faumuina
4. Romano
5. Bird
6. Luatua
7. Cane
8. Messam

9. Kerr-Barlow
10. Carter (captain)

11. Halai
12. Saili
13. Ben Smith
14. Piutau
15. Taylor.

16. Hore
17. Moody
18. Ben Franks
19. Thrush
20. L. Whitelock
21. Perenara
22. Barrett
23. Crotty

Yeah I think you are probably pretty on to it (I'd make a couple changes though)! So from what Hansen has said already DC will start (presuming he is fit). 9 guys will go straight to Europe. I imagine the 9 guys would be: Woodcock, Mealamu, S Whitelock, McCaw, Read, A Smith, Cruden, Nonu, Dagg so we can probably rule those guys out. That leaves 27 guys to select from. I think they will want to give O Franks, Retalick, and Savea rests. Then for the most part I believe they will start the second stringers (and the guys returning from injury) and have the 3rd stringers off the bench, so that leaves me with the following:

1. Crockett
2. Coles
3. Faumuina
4. Romano
5. Bird
6. Luatua
7. Cane
8. L Whitelock
9. Kerr-Barlow
10. Carter (captain)
11. Halai
12. Saili
13. Crotty
14. Piutau
15. Taylor

16. Hore
17. Moody
18. Ben Franks
19. Thrush
20. Messam
21. Perenara
22. Barrett
23. B Smith

EDIT: Jane injury changes things...
 
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Corey Jane has a grade 1 hamstring strain; those usually take 3 weeks to clear going by the grade 1 strains suffered by George North and Jamie Roberts in the Lions series. So looks like the Japan game might come too soon for him.
 
You might want to be a bit careful if those stats are just this year's ITM Cup. Remember that the two teams are only guaranteed to have played six of their 10 matches against the same opponents. They also play cross-pool matches and not necessarily agianst the same teams

Differing Cross Pool Matches

Wellington v Northland & Hawkes Bay

Canterbury v Tasman, Otago

Most sporting statistics need to be treated with caution, as it is often impossible to directly compare two players/teams. Regardless I think these stats do emphasize that Canterbury have had a very destructive scrum this season (which is a prime reason for Joe Moody's inclusion). The scrums in the Canterbury v Wellington match in the weekend will be intriguing viewing, as on one side we have match-up between the form LH of the NPC (Moody) and the form TH (Toomaga-Allen).

Anyways.... It will be interesting to see what sort of side the selectors pick vs Japan. I understand Romano is still out for the next couple of weeks, so we will likely see Thrush and Bird as the two locks (as in Invictus's predicted side). The midfield and outside back selections will be particularly interesting. There are pile of players in the squad whose best position is 12, but no specialists centres. I would probably go with Saili and Crotty, though in what positions I'm not sure. If Jane is fit I would imagine he would start, while it may also be the only chance on tour they have to start Halai. Piutau may have the inside running to start at fullback (though he could start on the wing if Jane is out), but it wouldn't surprise me if they started Barrett there.
 
Most sporting statistics need to be treated with caution, as it is often impossible to directly compare two players/teams. Regardless I think these stats do emphasize that Canterbury have had a very destructive scrum this season (which is a prime reason for Joe Moody's inclusion). The scrums in the Canterbury v Wellington match in the weekend will be intriguing viewing, as on one side we have match-up between the form LH of the NPC (Moody) and the form TH (Toomaga-Allen).

Anyways.... It will be interesting to see what sort of side the selectors pick vs Japan. I understand Romano is still out for the next couple of weeks, so we will likely see Thrush and Bird as the two locks (as in Invictus's predicted side). The midfield and outside back selections will be particularly interesting. There are pile of players in the squad whose best position is 12, but no specialists centres. I would probably go with Saili and Crotty, though in what positions I'm not sure. If Jane is fit I would imagine he would start, while it may also be the only chance on tour they have to start Halai. Piutau may have the inside running to start at fullback (though he could start on the wing if Jane is out), but it wouldn't surprise me if they started Barrett there.

From what I've heard, Romano and Jane will both be unavailable for the match against Japan.
 
Corey Jane has a grade 1 hamstring strain; those usually take 3 weeks to clear going by the grade 1 strains suffered by George North and Jamie Roberts in the Lions series. So looks like the Japan game might come too soon for him.
Oh OK, wasn't up to play there... Will change my team accordingly.
 
I can't remember seeing any awe inspiring performance from the blues back line. Even rene ranger appeared to be below his best with a blues shirt on. Consequently I don't have high hopes for Charles piatau and Francis saili.It seems to me to be more of you were outstanding at junior level lets see if you can setup. If that's the case why is robbie fruen not being given a chance. We know he is injured but he had proved himself at super rugby level. The likes of piatau, saili and sam cane don't exactly strike fear into the opposition. Back to Jane he is an outstanding player who should start . My concern is come 2015 i a good no of the back line will be in their thirties .That can take away your explosiveness and a vital edge of your game. The ITM is displaying some outstanding talent which if not harnessed will end up in Australia and abroad .There is In my view enough depth for a sixth super rugby team .I ve gone off the tangent

Yeah I just do not get his comment either......
I can only imagine you are just not watching enough of Piutau and Saili play. IMHO they are two of the biggest backline talents NZ have coming through....
Piutau is one of the most explosive backs in the country, needs to learn a bit of in game awreness, defensive postioning etc but mate you only have to watch him to see that he has the x factor.
Saili might not have shown huge amounts at Super Rugby level yet, was good though, but he did well in his AB start, has been an absolute stand out for NH this year and he is deservedly next in line in the ABs mid field.
Ranger was awesome last year....??
Fruean is a good player but as many have pointed out he is a liability on D.
 
Yeah piutau and Saili have a serious amount of potential.

Piutau stands out because of his combination of all round skill set and age as well as his ability to run the ball. I mean look at his D on the weekend - fantastic.

Saili has been really good and really did devalop well over time for the blues. Then he had a couple of games where he basically broke the line every time he ran the ball he has a good boot as well.

I really want to see more of Saili at 12 for the AB's I think hes better than nonu, Nonu just has the 80 odd tests experience under his belt. Saili needs test caps and time in camp to get better. Nonu can still contribute but I really struggle to see nonu being relevant in 2015. I can see Conrad Smith being there and Saili would be a good partner for Conrad.
 
Yeah piutau and Saili have a serious amount of potential.

Piutau stands out because of his combination of all round skill set and age as well as his ability to run the ball. I mean look at his D on the weekend - fantastic.

Saili has been really good and really did devalop well over time for the blues. Then he had a couple of games where he basically broke the line every time he ran the ball he has a good boot as well.

I really want to see more of Saili at 12 for the AB's I think hes better than nonu, Nonu just has the 80 odd tests experience under his belt. Saili needs test caps and time in camp to get better. Nonu can still contribute but I really struggle to see nonu being relevant in 2015. I can see Conrad Smith being there and Saili would be a good partner for Conrad.

I agree wholeheartedly. I think I actually posted my concerns about his defense before the game - he answered that pretty spectacularly. Came up at the right times and made sure of his tackles. I like how intense he is when he does everything, seems to go full noise the whole time which is great. If he keeps going like that Ben Smith might start looking sideways at him given he has a lot of learning to do at 13 and could find the younger man stealing his spot on the wing in the meantime.
 
Yeah piutau and Saili have a serious amount of potential.

Piutau stands out because of his combination of all round skill set and age as well as his ability to run the ball. I mean look at his D on the weekend - fantastic.

Saili has been really good and really did devalop well over time for the blues. Then he had a couple of games where he basically broke the line every time he ran the ball he has a good boot as well.

I really want to see more of Saili at 12 for the AB's I think hes better than nonu, Nonu just has the 80 odd tests experience under his belt. Saili needs test caps and time in camp to get better. Nonu can still contribute but I really struggle to see nonu being relevant in 2015. I can see Conrad Smith being there and Saili would be a good partner for Conrad.

Care to place a wager on that as well?? ;)

Seriously, we all get you are not a Nonu fan, but there is a reason a player has 80+ caps for the ABs under their belt and it's because they are damn good!! You may not like the guy but you are letting that cloud your judgment IMHO.
 
Care to place a wager on that as well?? ;)

Seriously, we all get you are not a Nonu fan, but there is a reason a player has 80+ caps for the ABs under their belt and it's because they are damn good!! You may not like the guy but you are letting that cloud your judgment IMHO.

Agreed.

I can't get my head round how Larksea can say he can't see Nonu being relevant for RWC 2015 other than he just does not like the guy. Here in England most people are excited at the prospect of Tuilagi because he could turn into someone of the calibre of Nonu. A player who makes the yards, has added a passing and kicking game to his repertoire and is solid in defence. Sure I heard he doesn't perform at S15 but when he pulls on that All Black shirt he's an amazing player.

Don't forget ideally most players in a winning WC team should have 40-50 test caps; there's no way Hansen would jettison Nonu before the WC other than for injury reasons; Sailli and SBW would not have anywhere near that many caps come RWC 2015. Plus why would Hansen get rid of the most capped partnership in the world in Nonu and Conrad Smith?
 
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sure he comes out and has big games every once in a while
but he has a lot of average games in between, hes had this uncanny ability to have a big game every time questions start to pop up regarding his selection.
he still gets visibly flustered and frustrated on the field when the all blacks are under real pressure.
I dont like him on defense, I think he generally gets an armchair ride between two of the best defenders in the world (Carter & Conrad) and when he does make a tackle he takes an absolute age to get back in line
2015 world cup time he will be 33 and IMO while he is still good he has past his peak now - how good will he be then?

"why would Hansen get rid of the most capped partnership in the world in Nonu and Conrad Smith?"

same reason all player partnerships end, they get old and past used by date, better younger options present themselves. While Conrad seems to be a better player than he was in 10-11 I don't believe Nonu is.

Any player who is going to be over 32-33 come 2015 WC will have question marks over them

Dan Carter
McCaw
Conrad
Mealamu
Hore
Woodcock
Nonu

you cant guarantee every one of these guys will still be relevant in 2015, a lot of them are already the greatest and most capped all blacks ever for the position they play, have they got another ~25+ tests in them? Or if they do get themselves there are they going to contribute to a winning side or be a liability?
 
on another note :)

Joe Moodie, Dominic Bird, Ryan Crotty, Luke Whitelock and Tom Taylor have been released to play for Canterbury which means they are unlikely to play against Japan

Thrush has not been released.
 
I still don't get it. Do you seriously think a player gets 80+ test caps by having "a good game once in a while"? No offence but on this one I will back the rugby brains of Hansen, Smith, Henry, JK etc over you on this one ;)
You didn't answer my question as well :) willing to put your money where your mouth is on this one?? For me that can be a pretty good indication of how much one really believes what they are saying.
 
on another note :)

Joe Moodie, Dominic Bird, Ryan Crotty, Luke Whitelock and Tom Taylor have been released to play for Canterbury which means they are unlikely to play against Japan

Thrush has not been released.

I stand to be corrected but I'm not sure that's correct. I caught the end of a Hansen interview and the logic behind releasing (or not releasing) players was that IF a player had spent the majority of the season with their ITM cup side then they would be released to play, however I didn't get the impression this meant they would not be available for Japan. Anyone else confirm??
 
Right so:
"We thought about releasing him [Thrush], but he's going to be involved in the game in Japan," Hansen said. "If he wasn't going to be there [All Black training on Saturday and Sunday in Auckland] it would really disrupt the team's preparation, so in the end we said 'no he couldn't play'.

Suggests your post above was correct and the 5 Canterbury players wont be part of the Japan game.....Not sure it all adds up though because Hansen said the Japan game would be a B team and also said 9 guys would go straight to Europe, does that mean the 5 Cantabs will go straight to Europe? I had originally thought those 9 guys would be the most senior players (McCaw, Read, Woodcock etc), but now it seems there will be at least a bit of a cross over (either one or two of the senior guys will be involved in the Japan game OR one or two of the 5 Cantabs will be.....
 
I still don't get it. Do you seriously think a player gets 80+ test caps by having "a good game once in a while"? No offence but on this one I will back the rugby brains of Hansen, Smith, Henry, JK etc over you on this one ;)
You didn't answer my question as well :) willing to put your money where your mouth is on this one?? For me that can be a pretty good indication of how much one really believes what they are saying.

did I say he got to 80 tests by having a good game every once in a while? no. I'm obviously not talking about his whole carrier, maybe I should have been more specific. I would say after the world cup hes been a mixed bag, even world cup year he was a bit hit and miss. Hes had quiet games, bad games and the odd great game to hold his place helped by the fact hes in what is a dominant and winning team generally.

Nonu is a special case because of any player in the current squad he is the one player whos super rugby form has been ignored and much better players in super rugby have been ignored for Nonu to retain his starting role. Be honest on super rugby form would Nonu even have made the squad?

now obviously he has not "let the all blacks down" hes generally done a good job.

but shouldn't we wonder how well the likes of Saili, Horrell, Aki would do if they were given the chance - all were better than Nonu in super rugby by some margin. Add Tom Taylor too and even Sean Treeby had better showings for the highlanders than Nonu.

Nonu established himself during a period post Tana, Mauger & Luke McAlister leaving where options where thin, he definitely solved a problem. Now we have options with genuine potential and worth. but Nonu has an absolute strangle hold on the 12 spot.

I know its not black and white, the reality is that Nonu has a specific set of skills, in particular his footwork and running game that provide an important balance to the All Black Backline in such a way that you can't just pull him out and put someone else in and keep the same gameplan, hes just such a unique player. But time time will come where we will have to use someone else, no one can play forever.
 
sure he comes out and has big games every once in a while
but he has a lot of average games in between, hes had this uncanny ability to have a big game every time questions start to pop up regarding his selection.
he still gets visibly flustered and frustrated on the field when the all blacks are under real pressure.
I dont like him on defense, I think he generally gets an armchair ride between two of the best defenders in the world (Carter & Conrad) and when he does make a tackle he takes an absolute age to get back in line
2015 world cup time he will be 33 and IMO while he is still good he has past his peak now - how good will he be then?

"why would Hansen get rid of the most capped partnership in the world in Nonu and Conrad Smith?"

same reason all player partnerships end, they get old and past used by date, better younger options present themselves. While Conrad seems to be a better player than he was in 10-11 I don't believe Nonu is.

Any player who is going to be over 32-33 come 2015 WC will have question marks over them

Dan Carter
McCaw
Conrad
Mealamu
Hore
Woodcock
Nonu

you cant guarantee every one of these guys will still be relevant in 2015, a lot of them are already the greatest and most capped all blacks ever for the position they play, have they got another ~25+ tests in them? Or if they do get themselves there are they going to contribute to a winning side or be a liability?

I see you are a very hard person to please; I think Nonu has been superb the whole of the RC. I don't know which average games you're referring to. It is clear to me that your dislike of him is clouding your judgement of the player who is rated one of the best, if not the best, 12 in the world. Not many players of his physicality have played so many tests and avoided serious injury; that is a testament to how fit Nonu is.

34 is about the end limit of international rugby players, depending on injury; so the players you've listed about, the RWC 2015 will most probably be their last WC. However, neither of us know what will happen to them in 2 years time. But you seem to be totally discounting experience, which test players need; especially as less expenienced players are likely to have dips in their form. Those players you've listed will be vital to underpin those players in their prime and those who will only have 20-30 caps come WC time like Cane, Luatua, Piatau. I also think those younger players will actually prolong the careers of McCaw, Carter, C. Smith so they won't be knackered come 2015.

Right now the Hansen has really bringing through the youngsters and mixing them with veterans to create the perfect blend. I think Hansen will phase out the these players, as and when he thinks he has the requisite replacements, like he has done with Weepu. However, I don't think he would be giving the likes of Conrad, Carter and McCaw sabbaticals if they did not figure in his plans for RWC 2015. Also I'm sure NZRU and Hansen would not have got the Blues to take on Nonu for 2014 if he did not figure in their plans for 2015. It would be far easier to just let him go overseas.

Regarding the Nonu and Conrad Smith partnership ending; yes it will end eventually, but I doubt it will be before the next WC. The All Blacks aren't exactly blessed with strength in depth in that department and Hansen knows that this partnership works because they complement each other and have shown time time and again that they perform in the big games. That is not something to throw away before 2015. This partnership will either be Hansen's first choice for RWC 2015 or as a minimum his insurance policy if a players who do surpass them lose form. The younger options of Saili, Crotty and Ben Smith won't even have 40 caps between them come 2015 and just because they will be in their prime come 2015, does not mean they will not have bad games between now and 2015; this is where and when the experience in Nonu and Smith is invaluable to step in.

The only person who could challenge Nonu for the no. 12 jersey IMO is SBW; so if he does return in 2015, as he says he will, then he will be 30; who knows what the state of his body will be in after another year spent being battered in NRL. I just think you're kidding yourself that Nonu will be irrelevant come 2015.
 
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