[2013 EOYT] New Zealand

[ABs2011]

I'm not sure about Luke Braid's current injury, but if he was for he would be my pick. He has been excellent for the last couple of seasons at Super Rugby level, and his style of play suits what the AB's look for in an openside. I don't expect he will be picked (as the AB's selectors don't appear to be big fans of him), but he is who I would go for. The other obvious option (should the require three 7's) is Latimer. I'm not a massive fan - he is a good player who will give 100% every match and won't let the side down, but I feel there are better options around.

Yup, that is what I was getting at really. Even if Braid was fit, they don't seem to rate him for what ever reason (I agree with you in terms of him being the preferred 3rd option). The next cab off the rank then becomes Latimer, who feels like a bit of a step backwards to me. He is a really good player, BUT I'd prefer they take a risk and develop someone and the obvious someone is Savea

 

[donmcdazzle]

Is it too late to convert Ardie Savea to the midfield? With his running game and defence, and ability to get the odd steal he would be like replacing Rene Ranger.

He just seems to cause havoc when he gets on the field, such an entertaining player. For the record I would definitely pick him on the tour, there is so much more potential upside taking him than there is someone like Latimer or Braid (and I really rate Braid). I'd take Savea at number 8 over Luke Whitelock in a heartbeat, and he doesn't even play number 8 regularly.

 

[smartcooky]

... The thing with Luke Whitelock is that he hasn't even stood-out at ITM Cup level, let alone Super Rugby level. There are really no stand-out features to his game - he is pretty solid in most departments, but if you watched him during an ITM match you wouldn't automatically think "he's a Super Rugby player", let alone "he's a potential All Black"! This nothing against Luke Whitelock - he is a good young player who probably deserves a spot in a Super Rugby squad, and could one day evolve into an All Black.

Sometimes, players do stuff that your average fan doesn't see or notice, but the expert analysts do.

A case in point would be Reuben Thorne. Few players were more maligned for their apparent lack of sensational play than him. Doug Golightly (probably the most ignorant rugby journalist on the planet outside of Stephen Jones) labelled him "Captain Invisible", yet, he kept getting selected at No. 6 for the All Blacks. Why? Because of the amount of work he did in the tight, where his contribution went unseen by all but the most discerning eyes. while he was no great ball runner, he was a devastating tackler who hardly ever missed. With Thorne on the blindside of the scrum, the blindside was effectively closed and bolted shut. When asked, opposing players would vote him as the most feared opponent in both the Crusaders and the All Blacks.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Right, here's my analysis and predictions:

First of all, it's worth having a look at who the All Blacks took on their 2009 end of year tour. Obviously the coaching regime was a bit different, and the squad had three fewer players, but it's ok to use as a comparison at least to some extent. In 2009 the All Blacks took 33 players to Japan and Europe, where they played six matches (Australia, Wales, Italy, England, France, Barbarians). There was an 18 forwards, 15 backs split, and in the squad there were only two open side flankers - McCaw and Tanerau Latimer. This is the first reason why I can't see the All Blacks taking Ardie Savea on tour this year.

With that out of the way, we can have a look at who will definitely be making the squad. It is very likely that almost the whole RC squad will be taken, minus Hore and Conrad Smith. Of the remaining 25 players, Perenara is injured and probably has a 50/50 chance of making the cut. Injuries will likely play a large part in the final make up of the squad, with Todd also definitely out of contention, whilst others such as Romano and Bird are also not guaranteed to be fit.

This leaves us with a core squad of:
Props - Woodcock, Crockett, Franks, Franks, Faumuina
Hookers - Mealamu, Coles
Locks - Retallick, Whitelock
Loose Forwards - Messam, Luatua, McCaw, Cane, Read
Halfbacks - Smith, Kerr-Barlow
First Fives - Carter, Cruden, Barrett
Centres - Nonu, Smith
Outside Backs - Savea, Dagg, Piutau

That's 24 players, leaving us with 12 more spots to fill. If fit, it's likely that the selectors will take both Romano and Bird, and given the length of the tour and the fact that the two are returning from injury we will probably see Thrush remain with the squad in a full time position. There will definitely be at least three hookers on tour, and given his relative experience over the other options, Liam Coltman will certainly fill this spot. Francis Saili will definitely tour, having received his first cap against Argentina. Cory Jane will also probably be reinstated straight onto the right wing, given Ben Smith's move to the centres. With three spots occupied in the midfield, a fourth player will probably be taken, and I think at this point it's a straight shoot out between Taylor and Crotty. Taylor is probably viewed as a better long term option, and certainly offers more utility value, so will likely be selected as the final centre. That leaves us with five more gaps in the roster. A third halfback will be seen as a necessity. If Perenara is fit, he will travel, otherwise Augustine Pulu will probably take his spot. The selectors indicated that Weepu was taken to South African ahead of Pulu due to his experience, but given the weaker tour opposition that won't be a problem now. The final four spots will be divided between outside backs and loose forwards. The players vying for these final spots are Brad Shields, Luke Whitelock, Ardie Savea, Tanerau Latimer, Victor Vito, Johnny McNicholl and Frank Halai. Given the nature of the tour, I think we can rule out the two more experienced, safer options (i.e. Latimer and Vito), this is very much a tour looking towards the future. Halai and Whitelock have both remained part of the training squads for this year (Shields was dropped) so are the probably the first two cabs of the rank. Savea is a prodigious talent, but has yet to prove himself at Super level. I'm more inclined to pick a back straight out of the ITM Cup because the step up is not as extreme. Savea for me needs to tighten up his game, something Shields has shown he is capable of. With only four games on tour, it's unlikely we'll even see Cane start more than one (two at most) matches (consider we're yet to see him start a match where McCaw hasn't been injured), so I can't see a third seed flanker getting any game time. Todd is already in place as a back up for the medium term, should injury strike, and the same goes for Latimer. I think Savea will be an All Black, but I don't think it will be prior to the 2015 World Cup. For that reason, the last two spots will likely go to Shields and McNicholl.

That would leave us with a final squad of:
Props - Woodcock, Crockett, Franks, Franks, Faumuina
Hookers - Mealamu, Coles, Coltman
Locks - Retallick, Whitelock, Romano, Bird, Thrush
Loose Forwards - Messam, Luatua, McCaw, Cane, Read, Whitelock, Shields
Halfbacks - Smith, Kerr-Barlow, Perenara/Pulu
First Fives - Carter, Cruden, Barrett
Centres - Nonu, Smith, Taylor, Saili
Outside Backs - Savea, Dagg, Piutau, Jane, Halai, McNicholl

Possible changes could occur if one of the locks are injured, in which case another prop would likely be added to the squad (Afeaki or Moody). Luatua, Shields and Whitelock can all cover lock quite easily, and there aren't any other locks running around that would really justify selection at the moment. Likewise, McNicholl could also be overlooked in place of the sixth prop.

From this squad, I think a likely lineup to face Japan would be:
1 Crockett
2 Coltman
3 Faumuina
4 Romano
5 Thrush
6 Luatua
7 Cane
8 Whitelock
9 Kerr-Barlow
10 Carter (c)
11 Savea
12 Taylor
13 Saili
14 Jane
15 Piutau

16 Coles
17 Franks
18 Franks
19 Bird
20 Shields
21 Perenara/Pulu
22 Smith
23 McNicholl

Keep in mind this is what I expect the selectors to run with, not necessarily what I want them to do (though McNicholl made me being a bit quick to jump the gun!).

 

[RyotoTheDragon]

From this squad, I think a likely lineup to face Japan would be:
1 Crockett
2 Coltman
3 Faumuina
4 Romano
5 Thrush
6 Luatua
7 Cane
8 Whitelock
9 Kerr-Barlow
10 Carter (c)
11 Savea
12 Taylor
13 Saili
14 Jane
15 Piutau

16 Coles
17 Franks
18 Franks
19 Bird
20 Shields
21 Perenara/Pulu
22 Smith
23 McNicholl

Keep in mind this is what I expect the selectors to run with, not necessarily what I want them to do (though McNicholl made me being a bit quick to jump the gun!).

Looks good except you have Saili at centre, I would have thought that the selectors would rather have him playing second five. I dont know about McNicholl as well, seems a bit too early given that he was injured most of the SR.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Looks good except you have Saili at centre, I would have thought that the selectors would rather have him playing second five. I dont know about McNicholl as well, seems a bit too early given that he was injured most of the SR.

Saili has been spending some time at 13 with Harbour, which I think is great for his development. I don't think it would hurt to give him some time there against Japan. Worst comes to worst you can bring on Ben Smith.

 

[Hulk Hogan]

[strike]Samoa[/strike] New Zealand by 50 points

 

[Darwin]

Sometimes, players do stuff that your average fan doesn't see or notice, but the expert analysts do.

A case in point would be Reuben Thorne. Few players were more maligned for their apparent lack of sensational play than him. Doug Golightly (probably the most ignorant rugby journalist on the planet outside of Stephen Jones) labelled him "Captain Invisible", yet, he kept getting selected at No. 6 for the All Blacks. Why? Because of the amount of work he did in the tight, where his contribution went unseen by all but the most discerning eyes. while he was no great ball runner, he was a devastating tackler who hardly ever missed. With Thorne on the blindside of the scrum, the blindside was effectively closed and bolted shut. When asked, opposing players would vote him as the most feared opponent in both the Crusaders and the All Blacks.

Indeed. However when an expert analyst such as myself doesn't see anything in a player it is usually because there is nothing to see

Luke Whitelock is in a similar mould to Thorne - he has a good work-rate, is generally accurate, and has a pretty low error rate. I don't think he has shown anything that suggests he will be an AB (yet). This doesn't mean he won't turn into an All Black - Kieran Read was a similar style of player when he hit the Super Rugby scene and he has turned into a pretty handy player! Obviously the AB's selectors can see something in Luke Whitelock that many off us can't - I can't wait to find out exactly what it is

 

[Hulk Hogan]

Obviously the AB's selectors can see something in Luke Whitelock that many off us can't - I can't wait to find out exactly what it is

His last name, mystery solved.

 

[Chikwa]

Yup, that is what I was getting at really. Even if Braid was fit, they don't seem to rate him for what ever reason (I agree with you in terms of him being the preferred 3rd option). The next cab off the rank then becomes Latimer, who feels like a bit of a step backwards to me. He is a really good player, BUT I'd prefer they take a risk and develop someone and the obvious someone is Savea

Yep Savea looks like an awesome prospect he is clearly better than same cane!

 

[jessta]

this is whats worded in the Australian:

"He says that squad will be split in two, comprising one group to contest the Test against Japan in Tokyo on November 2 and another to head straight to Paris to prepare for the Test against France a week later."

does that mean there gonna in essence be two squads, one going straight to japan and one straight to Europe? is so how do the coaches split up, seems a bit logistical.

this would imply dan carter starting the japan game, which has been hinted at, would mean either barrett or cruden will start vs france.

i think a big call is who starts on the wing vs aus when smith moves into center, got piutau, halai, jane

 

[Chikwa]

this is whats worded in the Australian:

"He says that squad will be split in two, comprising one group to contest the Test against Japan in Tokyo on November 2 and another to head straight to Paris to prepare for the Test against France a week later."

does that mean there gonna in essence be two squads, one going straight to japan and one straight to Europe? is so how do the coaches split up, seems a bit logistical.

this would imply dan carter starting the japan game, which has been hinted at, would mean either barrett or cruden will start vs france.

i think a big call is who starts on the wing vs aus when smith moves into center, got piutau, halai, jane

Jane may start just to give him the game time he needs.What a prospect for the AB's if his form returns.Like Ben smith he has a good rugby brain.The only disadvantage is his age.In 2 years time he will be 32.He may have lost a yard or 2 of pace.I

 

[ABs2011]

this is whats worded in the Australian:

"He says that squad will be split in two, comprising one group to contest the Test against Japan in Tokyo on November 2 and another to head straight to Paris to prepare for the Test against France a week later."

does that mean there gonna in essence be two squads, one going straight to japan and one straight to Europe? is so how do the coaches split up, seems a bit logistical.

this would imply dan carter starting the japan game, which has been hinted at, would mean either barrett or cruden will start vs france.

i think a big call is who starts on the wing vs aus when smith moves into center, got piutau, halai, jane

I'm hearing Piutau will start and Jane will be on the bench.

 

[psychic duck]

this is whats worded in the Australian:

"He says that squad will be split in two, comprising one group to contest the Test against Japan in Tokyo on November 2 and another to head straight to Paris to prepare for the Test against France a week later."

does that mean there gonna in essence be two squads, one going straight to japan and one straight to Europe? is so how do the coaches split up, seems a bit logistical.

this would imply dan carter starting the japan game, which has been hinted at, would mean either barrett or cruden will start vs france.

i think a big call is who starts on the wing vs aus when smith moves into center, got piutau, halai, jane

9 players of the 36 man squad will go straight to Europe and the rest plays in Japan. So it's not really two squads.

 

[ABs2011]

I'm hearing Piutau will start and Jane will be on the bench.

Might have to back track on that - heard Hansen on the radio and while he is a bit hard to infer much from it seemed he was hinting at Jane starting....

 

[Chikwa]

Might have to back track on that - heard Hansen on the radio and while he is a bit hard to infer much from it seemed he was hinting at Jane starting....

I can't remember seeing any awe inspiring performance from the blues back line. Even rene ranger appeared to be below his best with a blues shirt on. Consequently I don't have high hopes for Charles piatau and Francis saili.It seems to me to be more of you were outstanding at junior level lets see if you can setup. If that's the case why is robbie fruen not being given a chance. We know he is injured but he had proved himself at super rugby level. The likes of piatau, saili and sam cane don't exactly strike fear into the opposition. Back to Jane he is an outstanding player who should start . My concern is come 2015 i a good no of the back line will be in their thirties .That can take away your explosiveness and a vital edge of your game. The ITM is displaying some outstanding talent which if not harnessed will end up in Australia and abroad .There is In my view enough depth for a sixth super rugby team .I ve gone off the tangent

 

[nickdnz]

]I can't remember seeing any awe inspiring performance from the blues back line. Even rene ranger appeared to be below his best with a blues shirt on.[/B] Consequently I don't have high hopes for Charles piatau and Francis saili.It seems to me to be more of you were outstanding at junior level lets see if you can setup. If that's the case why is robbie fruen not being given a chance. We know he is injured but he had proved himself at super rugby level. The likes of piatau, saili and sam cane don't exactly strike fear into the opposition. Back to Jane he is an outstanding player who should start . My concern is come 2015 i a good no of the back line will be in their thirties .That can take away your explosiveness and a vital edge of your game. The ITM is displaying some outstanding talent which if not harnessed will end up in Australia and abroad .There is In my view enough depth for a sixth super rugby team .I ve gone off the tangent

...what?

Rene Ranger was certainly one of the most impressive players in Super Rugby last season - while I suggest you watch the Blues backline run rampant over the Hurricanes...twice.

 

[Darwin]

I can't remember seeing any awe inspiring performance from the blues back line. Even rene ranger appeared to be below his best with a blues shirt on. Consequently I don't have high hopes for Charles piatau and Francis saili.It seems to me to be more of you were outstanding at junior level lets see if you can setup. If that's the case why is robbie fruen not being given a chance. We know he is injured but he had proved himself at super rugby level. The likes of piatau, saili and sam cane don't exactly strike fear into the opposition. Back to Jane he is an outstanding player who should start . My concern is come 2015 i a good no of the back line will be in their thirties .That can take away your explosiveness and a vital edge of your game. The ITM is displaying some outstanding talent which if not harnessed will end up in Australia and abroad .There is In my view enough depth for a sixth super rugby team .I ve gone off the tangent

Really? Piutau was outstanding for the Blues this season. He has a few rough edges to his game (his decision making with ball in hand needs work, and he is a bit of a ball-hog), but he is a phenomenal talent with ball in hand. He has a great step, good pace, and is very strong. 1-on-1 he is arguably the most dangerous player in the country. He has impressed in his brief cameo's in Black too - I would be very disappointed if Cory Jane started ahead of Piutau against Australia. Jane is a world class wing (when fit), but has only just returned from a serious injury, so is nowhere near his best - if the AB's want to give him some more rugby to get him up to speed he would be better playing another match for Wellington this weekend then starting the next test vs Japan.

Saili has more rough edges than Piutau, but has shown a lot of potential. Unlike Piutau I don't think he is ready for international rugby (yet), but he is certainly an exciting talent. Fruean is not up to Test standard - his defense is atrocious, and he tends to fade in an out of games. Hopefully he recovers quickly from his heart surgery, as he certainly has some potential, however personally I would be surprised if he ever makes the AB's given his health issues.

...what?

Rene Ranger was certainly one of the most impressive players in Super Rugby last season - while I suggest you watch the Blues backline run rampant over the Hurricanes...twice.

Not sure if that is necessarily a big achievement - even the Highlanders managed to do that on one occasion

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Right, here's my analysis and predictions:

First of all, it's worth having a look at who the All Blacks took on their 2009 end of year tour. Obviously the coaching regime was a bit different, and the squad had three fewer players, but it's ok to use as a comparison at least to some extent. In 2009 the All Blacks took 33 players to Japan and Europe, where they played six matches (Australia, Wales, Italy, England, France, Barbarians). There was an 18 forwards, 15 backs split, and in the squad there were only two open side flankers - McCaw and Tanerau Latimer. This is the first reason why I can't see the All Blacks taking Ardie Savea on tour this year.

With that out of the way, we can have a look at who will definitely be making the squad. It is very likely that almost the whole RC squad will be taken, minus Hore and Conrad Smith. Of the remaining 25 players, Perenara is injured and probably has a 50/50 chance of making the cut. Injuries will likely play a large part in the final make up of the squad, with Todd also definitely out of contention, whilst others such as Romano and Bird are also not guaranteed to be fit.

This leaves us with a core squad of:
Props - Woodcock, Crockett, Franks, Franks, Faumuina
Hookers - Mealamu, Coles
Locks - Retallick, Whitelock
Loose Forwards - Messam, Luatua, McCaw, Cane, Read
Halfbacks - Smith, Kerr-Barlow
First Fives - Carter, Cruden, Barrett
Centres - Nonu, Smith
Outside Backs - Savea, Dagg, Piutau

That's 24 players, leaving us with 12 more spots to fill. If fit, it's likely that the selectors will take both Romano and Bird, and given the length of the tour and the fact that the two are returning from injury we will probably see Thrush remain with the squad in a full time position. There will definitely be at least three hookers on tour, and given his relative experience over the other options, Liam Coltman will certainly fill this spot. Francis Saili will definitely tour, having received his first cap against Argentina. Cory Jane will also probably be reinstated straight onto the right wing, given Ben Smith's move to the centres. With three spots occupied in the midfield, a fourth player will probably be taken, and I think at this point it's a straight shoot out between Taylor and Crotty. Taylor is probably viewed as a better long term option, and certainly offers more utility value, so will likely be selected as the final centre. That leaves us with five more gaps in the roster. A third halfback will be seen as a necessity. If Perenara is fit, he will travel, otherwise Augustine Pulu will probably take his spot. The selectors indicated that Weepu was taken to South African ahead of Pulu due to his experience, but given the weaker tour opposition that won't be a problem now. The final four spots will be divided between outside backs and loose forwards. The players vying for these final spots are Brad Shields, Luke Whitelock, Ardie Savea, Tanerau Latimer, Victor Vito, Johnny McNicholl and Frank Halai. Given the nature of the tour, I think we can rule out the two more experienced, safer options (i.e. Latimer and Vito), this is very much a tour looking towards the future. Halai and Whitelock have both remained part of the training squads for this year (Shields was dropped) so are the probably the first two cabs of the rank. Savea is a prodigious talent, but has yet to prove himself at Super level. I'm more inclined to pick a back straight out of the ITM Cup because the step up is not as extreme. Savea for me needs to tighten up his game, something Shields has shown he is capable of. With only four games on tour, it's unlikely we'll even see Cane start more than one (two at most) matches (consider we're yet to see him start a match where McCaw hasn't been injured), so I can't see a third seed flanker getting any game time. Todd is already in place as a back up for the medium term, should injury strike, and the same goes for Latimer. I think Savea will be an All Black, but I don't think it will be prior to the 2015 World Cup. For that reason, the last two spots will likely go to Shields and McNicholl.

That would leave us with a final squad of:
Props - Woodcock, Crockett, Franks, Franks, Faumuina
Hookers - Mealamu, Coles, Coltman
Locks - Retallick, Whitelock, Romano, Bird, Thrush
Loose Forwards - Messam, Luatua, McCaw, Cane, Read, Whitelock, Shields
Halfbacks - Smith, Kerr-Barlow, Perenara/Pulu
First Fives - Carter, Cruden, Barrett
Centres - Nonu, Smith, Taylor, Saili
Outside Backs - Savea, Dagg, Piutau, Jane, Halai, McNicholl

Possible changes could occur if one of the locks are injured, in which case another prop would likely be added to the squad (Afeaki or Moody). Luatua, Shields and Whitelock can all cover lock quite easily, and there aren't any other locks running around that would really justify selection at the moment. Likewise, McNicholl could also be overlooked in place of the sixth prop.

From this squad, I think a likely lineup to face Japan would be:
1 Crockett
2 Coltman
3 Faumuina
4 Romano
5 Thrush
6 Luatua
7 Cane
8 Whitelock
9 Kerr-Barlow
10 Carter (c)
11 Savea
12 Taylor
13 Saili
14 Jane
15 Piutau

16 Coles
17 Franks
18 Franks
19 Bird
20 Shields
21 Perenara/Pulu
22 Smith
23 McNicholl

Keep in mind this is what I expect the selectors to run with, not necessarily what I want them to do (though McNicholl made me being a bit quick to jump the gun!).

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks/9301617/Few-ABs-surprises-expected-from-Steve-Hansen

Stuff's predicted All Blacks' end of year squad:

16 Backs: Outsides: Israel Dagg, Julian Savea, Charles Piutau, Frank Halai, Cory Jane. Midfield: Ben Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Francis Saili, Tom Taylor, Ryan Crotty. Five-eighths: Dan Carter, Aaron Cruden, Beauden Barrett. Halfbacks: Aaron Smith, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, TJ Perenara.

20 Forwards: Loosies: Kieran Read, Liam Messam, Steven Luatua, Richie McCaw, Sam Cane, Luke Whitelock. Locks: Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Luke Romano, Jeremy Thrush, Dominic Bird. Props: Tony Woodcock, Joe Moody, Wyatt Crockett, Ben Afeaki, Owen Franks, Charlie Faumuina. Hookers: Andrew Hore, Keven Mealamu, Dane Coles.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

So Crotty, Moody and Hore in, McNicholl, Shields and Coltman out. Seems reasonable.

Oh and Afeaki ahead of Frank's according to that lineup, but I'm pretty sure that's a mistake.