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He's proven himself more than enough over the last two 6nations as far as I'm concerned. I think Kearney is the best of the three fullbacks at his best but his form has been very poor this season and he doesn't really deserve to tour ahead of Hogg because 'Hogg lacks basics' when Hogg has been playing better than him this season.
How much of Hogg have you watched?
As I said I think Kearney's poor form is over exagggerated just because he hasn't been as good as before injury doesn't mean he's been bad. I haven't even said Hogg's been bad I just don't trust him under the high ball and I'd question his positioning and tackling even more than I would Kearney's.