Since when did Italy have the potential of beating New Zealand?
Look at Italy's results against New Zealand and South Africa in the pro era.
http://stats.espnscrum.com/statsgur...eam=8;template=results;type=team;view=results
http://stats.espnscrum.com/statsgur...eam=5;template=results;type=team;view=results
And then compare that with Romania's against Italy.
http://stats.espnscrum.com/statsgur...am=20;template=results;type=team;view=results
Now tell me whether you still think that it makes any less sense Italy playing Romania than playing New Zealand despite never coming with in 14 points of them (of which was a complete reserve AB side that day).
As Melhor Time always used to point out. Australia has never had a pro-league of their own outside Super Rugby. In the 2001 tour some of the Lions opposition was pretty amateur.
http://www.lionsrugby.com/history/results.php?includeref=9755&season=2000-2001#.UXIg9rWG3zk
If Argentina get teams playing in Super Rugby or somewhere they could be on a par with that of 2001. So yes, your 12-16 years is accurate estimation. I don't think a tour to Argentina would catch on though. Lions tours have only really worked due to the fact all of SANZAR have normally been better than the British Isles sides. In fact this is the first tour since 1989 when the tour hasn't coincidentally happened against the best side in the world at the time.
By the way, the elite Argentine based players despite not having pro clubs are professional now Little Guy. Some are officially (
http://rugbyworldcup-argentina2023.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/uar-signs-10-players-on-professional.html), but the squad of the Pampas XV or Jaguars are all pro (except maybe those on the fringes of the squad) in that they play rugby for a living even if they are only technically semi-pro.