(Very) early thoughts on the 2017 Lions

[ALJ]

I'd like to see JJ run some more direct lines. He tends to devour the outside ark but usually can't find space at international level unless there's an overlap or he's chasing a chip/grubber. I reckon he could be lethal like Fofana with his pace and step if he varied his approach. I'd definitely be in favour of a Henshaw/JJ pairing then

13 tries in 30 caps isn't bad for a guy who can't find space.

Also more than twice the strike rate than Davies in terms of tries.

If Davies can return to his best, it's an interesting dilemma but right now I can only see one choice between those two.

 

[AzaMatt]

at the mo JJ is certainly the better player but you wont see rugby porn like this from JJ haha

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zmx7TDRtM-w

 

[ncurd]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OaDfotGspw

 

[Every Time Ref]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OaDfotGspw

Thank you so much, that's real rugby porn!

 

[Peat]

Not to pick at this but I don't think Davies has ever been at JJs level. He just doesn't have half the skill set that JJ does.

I genuinely think JJ is the best 13 in the NH, he reads a game so well, has great all round footballing skills and is a brilliant defensive leader and tackler.

Yours sincerely

Papa JJ

See, I rate Davies' footballing and defensive skills quite highly. I reckon he's probably a better kicker of the ball than Joseph.

What he doesn't have at the moment - and maybe never did - is that same electric attacking threat.

I could be wrong though and I certainly think JJ is currently comfortably the best 13 in the NH, albeit while wondering what guys like Bennett and Daly could do with a run in the position in a strong international team.

 

[welshglory]

13 tries in 30 caps isn't bad for a guy who can't find space.

Also more than twice the strike rate than Davies in terms of tries.

If Davies can return to his best, it's an interesting dilemma but right now I can only see one choice between those two.

I'm not comparing him with Davies though! I wouldn't have him in my team either. I would go with Ford Farrell Henshaw at the moment. I'm just saying that Joseph could be a much better player if could run some Fofana like lines

Edit:
I could be wrong but I think a lot of JJ's tries come from intercepts and chases. Its not a matter of him not finding space, its whether players can create space for him with the way he approaches the gain line. He has a tendency to receive the ball behind the gainline and rely on his footwork rather than preemptively beating the defender like some like Daly for example.

 

[AzaMatt]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OaDfotGspw

to be fair that was class. suppose they are just different breeds of centre, horses for courses and all that

 

[Saint4805]

See, I rate Davies' footballing and defensive skills quite highly. I reckon he's probably a better kicker of the ball than Joseph.

What he doesn't have at the moment - and maybe never did - is that same electric attacking threat.

I could be wrong though and I certainly think JJ is currently comfortably the best 13 in the NH, albeit while wondering what guys like Bennett and Daly could do with a run in the position in a strong international team.

Bennett is behind Huw Jones in the pecking order at the moment.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Ringrose will have a full 6nations at 13 as well. Gatland will have at least one option from all four nations.

 

[Peat]

Bennett is behind Huw Jones in the pecking order at the moment.

Still waiting for him and Ringrose to play a bit more at international level in general (and yes I know I should be doing that with Daly too, touch of English bias there). Well, that and I forgot about him a little tbh.

Still reckon Bennett is in the picture for one of the best though. If Scotland ever found a pack to match their backs...

 

[ALJ]

I could be wrong but I think a lot of JJ's tries come from intercepts and chases. Its not a matter of him not finding space, its whether players can create space for him with the way he approaches the gain line. He has a tendency to receive the ball behind the gainline and rely on his footwork rather than preemptively beating the defender like some like Daly for example.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqD97oPdF8U

- - - Updated - - -

See, I rate Davies' footballing and defensive skills quite highly. I reckon he's probably a better kicker of the ball than Joseph.

What he doesn't have at the moment - and maybe never did - is that same electric attacking threat.

One of the reasons JJ was picked at O/C over Daly was his defense - his kicking game has shown to be decent as well I think, just doesn't use it that much.

You can't criticize a player for not having pace but I have memories of Davies making some poor decisions with his kicking - probably selective memory to be fair.

 

[anderton46]

at the mo JJ is certainly the better player but you wont see rugby porn like this from JJ haha

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zmx7TDRtM-w

I love a JD handoff, had another beaut vs Sexton I believe where he just floored him.

See, I rate Davies' footballing and defensive skills quite highly. I reckon he's probably a better kicker of the ball than Joseph.

What he doesn't have at the moment - and maybe never did - is that same electric attacking threat.

I could be wrong though and I certainly think JJ is currently comfortably the best 13 in the NH, albeit while wondering what guys like Bennett and Daly could do with a run in the position in a strong international team.

I would agree that since his injuries he hasn't had the same attacking impetus, which is a shame as around 2012 (ish) he was the guy consistently making breaks for Wales/Lions. Now it's rare you see him do that. Hopefully he comes back to full strength though.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

JJ can actually pass too, JD has admitted he can't.

 

[Peat]

I've seen Davies win a foot race with Trimble. He's quite quick - or at least he was.

Fair enough if he's admitted he can't pass, never read that :lol:

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/21373249

 

[anderton46]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/21373249

To be fair that was from 3/4 years ago. I'd hope he's improved a bit since then.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

Bored so here is my idle assessment of the current tour party hierarchy. This would be my choices with some consideration of what Gatland thinks. Sorry Wales, you brought this on yourselves. Hi Scotland.

NB: I consider myself highly ignorant about scottish rugby. In particular I find it hard to tell who is considered first choice in the back row Also...I'm probably very wrong.


Loose-head Pro - I believe Scrummaging comes first so McGraph is really a no brainer. Mako is a great bench option to have, but Jenkins could also go through impact and experience. Healy needs to play himself into the fray during the six nations. Marler and beyond have no chance except for some serious injuries. I think we take something like 6 or maybe 7 props overall.

1) Jack Mcgraph
2) Mako Vunipola
3) Gethin Jenkins
4) Cian Healy (has the ability to be second choice given a run)
5) Joe Marler - Meh
6) Alan Dell?


Hooker - Lots of good options but after Best it becomes tricky. Hartley might simply not tour because of his discipline risks. If Gatland takes that decision, I think Owens is a good reliable thrower which George and Cronin are better around the field. I like George a little more than Cronin but I think the reverse will be true for Gatland

1) Rory Best
2) Dylan Hartley
3) Ken Owens
4) Jamie George
5) Sean Cronin
6) Scot Baldwin
7) Ross Ford

Tight-Head Prop - Not completely happy with the situation here. Lots of good but no great options, and the more talented players I see haven't established themselves - but saying this, the options are mroe consistently decent than last time. I'm a big Sinkler fan but given that he gets little game time I think Gatland will feel happier with the two above him.

1) Dan Cole
2) Tagh Furlong
3) Samson Lee
4) Mike Ross
5) Moray Low
5) Kyle Sinkler
6) Marty Moore / Fagerson / Nell

Locks - On current form, fitness and considering need for leadership, the current match-day locks would be Henderson, Alun-Wyn and Launchbury imo. Maro Itoje could be back in pole position with a good six nations. The amount of compeition is insane. There's literally no way in hell someone like Courtney Lawes tours, and that's quite telling. 5 locks were taken last time with Croft also consider as "capable" of playing there. Wer'e set for a real battle for the 5th place as Toner, Kruis and Gray would all be unlucky to miss out.

1) Maro Itoje
2) Iain Henderson
3) Alun-Wyn
4) Joe Launchbury
5 George Kruis
6) Devin Toner
7) Johnny Gray
8) Courtney Lawes
9) Luke Charteris

Blindside - Lots of really good options here, and Warbuton could also shift across. Stander and Haskell for me are the best options right now but because Haskell has been playing at 7. I think that because so many of the 7's can play 6, Robshaw is almost certain to miss out as is O'Mahony.

1) CJ Stander
2) James Haskell
3) Peter O'Mahony
4) Chris Robshaw
5) Teimana Harrison
6) Rob Harley
7) Dan Lydiate

Openside - Interesting decisions. Warburton is a likely captain so the incumbent whereas on form it should be an Irish player. Some quality players will miss out. The most notable ommission will be Tipuric who I don't believe will go.

1) Sam Warburton
2) Jordi Murphy
3) James Haskell
4) Sean O'Brien
5) Justin Tipuric
6) Josh VDF


Number 8 - Think the first choice is a tough one and I'd be happy with any of the top 3. With Vunipola injured, Hughes does have an opportunity to stake a claim to a place. If he has a storming six nations with england, he could go and that would mean at least one big name misses out. Wilson and Moriatys changes are close to zero. Last time we only took two; right now Heaslip might just miss out.

1) Billy Vunipola
2) Toby Faletau
3) Jamie Heaslip
4) Nathan Hughes
5) Ryan Wilson
6) Ross Moriarty


Scrum Half - The first two are head and shoulders above the rest. Laidlaws hanging in there because of experience and kicking but might not tour if Webb has a good six nations

1) Conor Murray
2) Ben Youngs
3) Gregg Laidlaw
4) Rhyss Webb
5) Danny Care
6) Gareth Davies

Fly-Half - For me the top 3 is very easy right now and given Hoggs automatic selection as someone who can also play fly half, we're not really going to get any lower than Jackson on this list. The tough call would be between Ford and jackson but I'd go with Jackson right now - possible entirely that neither will go and the choice will be the same as 2013. I think it extremely unlikely that Biggar will be anywhere near this tour. Where's Madigan at?

1) Jonathan Sexton
2) Owen Farrell
3) Paddy Jackson
4) George Ford
5) Danny Cipriani
6) Dan Biggar
999) Andy Goode
1000) Sam Davies

Left Wing - I don't think many of these guys will tour, maybe just two, however Daly is super versatile and right now he needs to go.The competition on the other wing is just better and I think it most likely we'll get some combination of North, Watson and Williams. I would be extremely surprised if tour-selection gets down to Seymour and beyond in this list, to be honest.

1) Simon Zebo
2) Johnny May
3) Elliott Daly
4) Tommy Seymour
5) Keith Earls
6) Tim Visser
7) Jack Nowell


Inside Centre - Am really excited about many of the options here. Farrell will tour as a fly-half which should make room for another. Might be a little early for Ringose and almost certainly a tour too early for Henry Slade. Jamie Roberts would be dead lucky to get on the plane but who knows, given a storming six nations. The spanner in the works is basically Farrell who I believe is in pole position even though Henshaw is a more interesting option. I think Scott Williams could also creep onto the tour as a "tech choice". Thankfully, there will be no need for the likes of Barritt and Twelvetrees this time around.

1) Owen Farrell
2) Robbie Henshaw
3) Scott Williams
4) Gary Ringrose
5) Jamie Roberts
6) Alex Dunbar
7) Henry Slade


Outside Centre - Nice problems to have, I think if Wales have a strong tournament, Davies will be at the heart of it and may become first choice in Gatlands head. Right now I'd have both english OCs ahead of him.

1) Jonathan Joseph
2) Elliot Daly
3) Jonathan Davies
4) Mark Bennett
5) Jared Payne


Right Wing - North's form has been poor but in a positive tour environment I think he will come good - on form, the four below him are more deserving. I haven't put Bowe here because I have literally no idea whats going on with him. If he came back into some form he could tour and the likes of Maitland or Trimble could miss out.

1) George North
2) Anthony Watson
3) Liam Williams
4) Andrew Trimble
5) Sean Maitland
6) Semesa Rokodoguni
7) Marlan Yarde


Full-back - I see Hogg and Williams is quite far ahead of the competition. We took 3 last time, but because Daly and Williams are both very versatile backs we might get 4 who can play here. I think Halfpenny will end up in a shootout with Kearney for a spot.

1) Stuart Hogg
2) Liam Williams
3) Rob Kearney
4) Mike Brown
5) Leigh Halfpenny
6) Elliott Daly

 

[Peat]

Seems fair. Few things I'd disagree with big

6 - Given how little faith Jones has placed in Harrison, I can't see Gatland putting any in him. Wonder how hard Jones is thinking about Henderson/Itoje here.

7 - Murphy should be bottom of that list.

10 - Ford has a lot more experience of running an international game and, biased as I am to Jackson, should be ahead of him. Cipriani has no place on that list and should be replaced with Finn Russell. Gareth Anscombe could be a good sneaky bet for 3rd 10. Madigan, last I heard, wasn't even starting for Bordeaux. Forget him.

12/13 - Te'o is in the running. Gatland loves a gain line merchant and he's about as good as there is available. Huw Williams, as pointed out, is ahead of Bennett for Scotland, so probably ahead of him for the Lions (and more versatile iirc).

15 - Can't see Halfpenny as low at 5th choice in Gatland's thoughts. Again, Anscombe's name deserves a mention. Also, I think Jared Payne might get in as primarily a full-back, as he'd arguably be third best on that list.

 

[Saint4805]

I won't reply with quote as it'll take up half the page. Your admission to being ignorant of Scottish rugby certainly shows but I won't hold that against you.

2. Fraser Brown is in great form right now and way ahead of Ross Ford (Brown actually used to play flanker and is very mobile)
3. Nel if fit and on form would be second behind Furlong
4/5. Johnny Gray is better than Devon Toner
10. Finn Russell should be in the top 3 on current form
11. I'd have Seymour ahead of Daly
13. Huw Jones is ahead of Mark Bennett

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Ringrose is naturally a 13, he'd played all of 70 minutes at 12 all at underage level prior to the AI's.
My extremely biased opinion would be to throw him invetween Daly and Joseph but that's because I think he's better than Daly but not necessarily Bennet or Davies if he ever hits form. I've only seen highlights of Huw Jones so can't really comment on him.

Seems fair. Few things I'd disagree with big

6 - Given how little faith Jones has placed in Harrison, I can't see Gatland putting any in him. Wonder how hard Jones is thinking about Henderson/Itoje here.

7 - Murphy should be bottom of that list.

10 - Ford has a lot more experience of running an international game and, biased as I am to Jackson, should be ahead of him. Cipriani has no place on that list and should be replaced with Finn Russell. Gareth Anscombe could be a good sneaky bet for 3rd 10. Madigan, last I heard, wasn't even starting for Bordeaux. Forget him.

12/13 - Te'o is in the running. Gatland loves a gain line merchant and he's about as good as there is available. Huw Williams, as pointed out, is ahead of Bennett for Scotland, so probably ahead of him for the Lions (and more versatile iirc).

15 - Can't see Halfpenny as low at 5th choice in Gatland's thoughts. Again, Anscombe's name deserves a mention. Also, I think Jared Payne might get in as primarily a full-back, as he'd arguably be third best on that list.

With Murphy's injury yeah, based on international form this year he'd be top of the list for me though.