(Very) early thoughts on the 2017 Lions

[TRF_heineken]

Rather had Schmidt TBH.

What about Eddie Jones?

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

What about Eddie Jones?

Nah we need him more. He's only been in the job 12 months.

 

[j'nuh]

tbf, there is a "who else?" factor at play.

Lions requiring coaches to be available for nearly a year in advance really reduces the options.

 

[MojoPin]

Overall I struggle to think of another option because that leads us to Lancaster.

My problem he has proven with both Wales and the Lions he's very much a "stick with who he knows coach". He seems unwilling to accept other players in a particular position might be better than his chosen ones.

This is not for Wales (see Cuthbert) but is double a problem on a Lions tour which he saw as augmenting his Wales side rather than picking the best 22 players of four nations.

Also beating Oz 4 years ago was hardly along the challenge of beating NZ in a years time.

Next year it's quite possible (but nowhere near a given) that England could be on an unbeaten run that's lasted over a year. It's quite possible Ireland will be above the pecking order in terms of teams as well. I think it's fair to worry Gats will do what he did last time.

Plus as noted Warrenball is a proven failure agains the ABs.


I'l support the team I just wish we had a better choice for coach.

During the last Lions tour Wales had come from a superb RWC effort in 2011, Grand Slam 6N in 2012 and the infamous England thrashing and consecutive ***le in 2013 - so of course they were going to dominate the Lions team. There wasn't one player in that final test that didn't justify their place. Even Cuthbert was playing well in 2013 and had a better strike rate than North at that point.

Gats has already gone on record today to say he believes England SHOULD be the #2 team in the world and SHOULD be winning the 6N every year. If that doesn't signal that he's perfectly willing to have an England dominated team (as one example) then I don't know what is.

As for Warrenball, it's currently a written agenda that Wales are trying to leave that style behind as they recognize that it isn't as effective as it once was. This is where the support staff will be essential. Honestly I think Howley is as much, if not more, to blame for 'Warrenball' as Gatland himself. That's my only concern with Gats as head coach, that we'll end up with Howley as well, who I don't think is up to the job anymore. We'll see how he does in the Autumn and 6N, I guess.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Just out of interest - who would everyone else have gone for if not Gatland as head coach?

McGeechan? Too old?
Jones - had gone on record he did not want it and RFU did not support the idea. Could still be called as an assistant.
Cotter? Would be brand new to the Lions.
Schmidt - ditto, but could also be picked as an assistant coach.
Gregor Towsend - enough experience? and has already said he won't go even as an assistant considering he starts as Scotland's head coach next June.
Lancaster? Hell no.
Sir Clive? Hasn't managed an international side in a while and not after the last debacle of 2005.

Gatland has 2 Lions tours under his belt (one as assistant/forwards coach and the other as head coach). A new coach would have to go in there and learn the Lions ethos and how to pick and manage players from 4 nations. I am one for picking Gatland to build on his knowledge and experience of the two previous Lions tours.

Granted I share doubts about his game plan to beat SH sides based on his Wales record, but based on how he tried to get Wales to play in the summer in the first two tests, I am hopeful he won't pick a Lions side to play Warrenball, as he knows this won't cut it against the ABs. Now to await who he chooses as his assistants, who I am sure will have a major say in how the Lions will play next June.

 

[MojoPin]

Just out of interest - who would everyone else have gone for if not Gatland as head coach?

McGeechan? Too old?
Jones - had gone on record he did not want it and RFU did not support the idea. Could still be called as an assistant.
Cotter? Would be brand new to the Lions.
Schmidt - ditto, but could also be picked as an assistant coach.
Gregor Towsend - enough experience? and has already said he won't go even as an assistant considering he starts as Scotland's head coach next June.
Lancaster? Hell no.
Sir Clive? Hasn't managed an international side in a while and not after the last debacle of 2005.

Gatland has 2 Lions tours under his belt (one as assistant/forwards coach and the other as head coach). A new coach would have to go in there and learn the Lions ethos and how to pick and manage players from 4 nations. I am one for picking Gatland to build on his knowledge and experience of the two previous Lions tours.

Granted I share doubts about his game plan to beat SH sides based on his Wales record, but based on how he tried to get Wales to play in the summer in the first two tests, I am hopeful he won't pick a Lions side to play Warrenball, as he knows this won't cut it against the ABs. Now to await who he chooses as his assistants, who I am sure will have a major say in how the Lions will play next June.

If Eddie Jones hadn't ruled himself out, he would have been my top choice, for sure. But when you take everything into account...hmm. Not sure, you're right in that there aren't many contenders. Graham Henry perhaps, but he's almost retired now. Sir Clive would have been at the very bottom of my list in all honesty, don't think he's got the same skills he once had and that disastrous 2005 tour lingers in the memory.

 

[Shaggy]

The last lions tour is what upgrades him from "****ing dreadful" to "dreadful".

I hope we don't use Gatland's style (hence me being so interested in the other coaches) as Gatland's playstyle isnt going to work against the all blacks.
When you consider the quality of some of the backs he's got to choose from, to play Warrenball would be criminal.

I think he had limited success with crashing the ball in the centres, and at times Wales definitely exposed the All Black midfield ... but yes, using just one tactic would be a little transparent wouldn't it.

Anyway.... interesting times; I'm looking forward to it

 

[Peat]

Rather had Schmidt TBH.

Didn't want it. Jones wasn't interested either. I dare say a lot of other possible names didn't want to know either.

I'd have rather not had Gatland either but beggars can't be choosers and we can't have done a great deal worse.

I just hope he's ready to step outside his comfort zone a little more. Welsh players playing Gatlandball aren't going to get the job done here. A full brigade of the nastiest ******** in the British Isles *might* get somewhere, although I'm not exactly betting on it. Still, hopefully he will. It was one thing to have a Wales-centric Lions time four years ago; the players had earned it. This time around, they've done nothing of the sort, and the bulk of participants should be English and Irish.

 

[ncurd]

During the last Lions tour Wales had come from a superb RWC effort in 2011, Grand Slam 6N in 2012 and the infamous England thrashing and consecutive ***le in 2013 - so of course they were going to dominate the Lions team. There wasn't one player in that final test that didn't justify their place. Even Cuthbert was playing well in 2013 and had a better strike rate than North at that point.

Except between the 2012 and 2013 retention through a 'thrashing' by Walsh and complete implosion of everything England had done well at up until that point.

They lost a summer series of internationals against Australia 3-0
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_mid-year_rugby_union_internationals

They lost every AI including Argentina & Samoa but also Australia and NZ
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_end-of-year_rugby_union_internationals

 

[Every Time Ref]

We still have end of year tests and a 6N to decide form but I've seen more than a few Welsh who seem to think Halfpenny should just waltz right back in at 15. I'm pretty sure the last person we want at 15 is one who will just boot every ball he gets right back at the ABs, they love it when that happens. We don't need him for his goal kicking either unless Biggar and Farrell both are injured. Also there is the question of mentality. The current crop of Welsh players very recently got royally done over by the ABs and the club side and England leading into that. They have Australia, South Africa, Argentina and Japan to play before the Lions but losses there could seriously damage their confidence, they already have the worst record against the SH of any Lions team.

Agree on 1/2p, he's not so brilliant that he walks back in. He's not even the best fullback in Wales right now. On the kicking though, I'd be very surprised (/worried) if either Biggar or Farrell were in the test XV. They're both Fatland type of players though, so maybe conceivable - but not advisable IMO.

Im not mad on Gatland, but as others say, who else is there?

 

[Peat]

Except between the 2012 and 2013 retention through a 'thrashing' by Walsh and complete implosion of everything England had done well at up until that point.

They lost a summer series of internationals against Australia 3-0
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_mid-year_rugby_union_internationals

They lost every AI including Argentina & Samoa but also Australia and NZ
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_end-of-year_rugby_union_internationals

30-3 man. No need to put thrashing into quotation marks.

Gatland was in and out of the Wales camp around those teams, rather disrupting them, and the rest of the Home Nations were hardly doing better. A handful of isolated successes, some of them in rather unique circumstances. None of them achieved Wales' highs in that period either.

In short, I see nothing to argue with what MojoPin said. The Welsh deserved their large representation then.


As for Halfpenny, he's the safest full-back we have in purely defensive terms and the best goalkicker too. The strongest test XV should contain neither Biggar nor Farrell. Given Halfpenny's injury record I'm reluctant to assume too much, but I think there's a strong case for playing him.

 

[MojoPin]

As for Halfpenny, he's the safest full-back we have in purely defensive terms and the best goalkicker too. The strongest test XV should contain neither Biggar nor Farrell. Given Halfpenny's injury record I'm reluctant to assume too much, but I think there's a strong case for playing him.

It's a tough one with Halfpenny, I agree he shouldn't walk right back in, but his defensive and positional play along with goalkicking should definitely put him on the plane, IMO. At the moment I'd probably have Hogg as my starting FB but Halfpenny could play himself into contention.

Agreed on Biggar, don't think he's a starting 10 for the Lions. Farrell seems to be doing well at 12 at the moment so I'd probably take him in that context. For me the starting 10 is Ford or Sexton based on current form, but that would require either Farrell or Halfpenny being present for the goal kicking. We need someone that can compete with Beauden Barrett, which is a big ask but Ford seems to have the best distribution of our 10s, as far as I can tell.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

TBH a fully fit Halfpenny would be in my 15 most likely.

He been on fire for Toulon currently (the only one it seems).

 

[ncurd]

30-3 man. No need to put thrashing into quotation marks.

Yeah sorry we deserved to loose that day no argument there the thrashing shouldn't of been quotation marks, I just still feel Walsh contributed to the six nations loss more than Wales playing brilliantly. It will always be in my book one worst displays of refereeing I've seen.

I disagree though those result weren't relevant they played Australia 4 times and lost and thats who the Lions tour was against. Those results are very much relevant regardless of how involved Gatland was the players were. Loosing to Samoa as Tier 1 nation especially one who made up the main bulk of the Lions contingent also has relevance.

Don't get me wrong I was happy with Lions make in everything but the last test, I felt us winning was in despite of the selections made rather than because of them.

But then I've never really rated Wales under Gatland and I don't think at the time they were miles ahead of Ireland or England to justify lopsided selections.

 

[Groundhog]

Halfpenny whether he starts or not is a really useful guy to have in your pocket. A guy with plenty of experience with a metronome boot and a really well rounded game is not to be sniffed at. Doesn't have the sheer X factor of Hogg though, so it's a tough call because the Kiwis are bound to have similar attacking threats across the park.

 

[Maverick1987]

Yeah sorry we deserved to loose that day no argument there the thrashing shouldn't of been quotation marks, I just still feel Walsh contributed to the six nations loss more than Wales playing brilliantly. It will always be in my book one worst displays of refereeing I've seen.

I disagree though those result weren't relevant they played Australia 4 times and lost and thats who the Lions tour was against. Those results are very much relevant regardless of how involved Gatland was the players were. Loosing to Samoa as Tier 1 nation especially one who made up the main bulk of the Lions contingent also has relevance.

Don't get me wrong I was happy with Lions make in everything but the last test, I felt us winning was in despite of the selections made rather than because of them.

But then I've never really rated Wales under Gatland and I don't think at the time they were miles ahead of Ireland or England to justify lopsided selections.

The only thing I would say is that EVERY marginal call between a Welsh player and A.N.Other ended with the Welshman being picked .... Let's not forget Launchbury got left behind for Iain Evans .... Lydiate was picked despite not playing any rugby for a year or so due to a broken ankle

My team as it stands today would be

1. McGrath
2. Hartley
3. Cole
4. Itoje
5. Kruis
6. Faletau
7. Warburton (Captain)
8. Billy V
9. Webb
10. Farrell
11. North
12. Henshaw
13. Taylor
14. Seymour
15. Liam Williams
16. George
17. Mako
18. Lee
19. AW Jones
20. O'Brien
21. Murray
22. Biggar/Sexton
23. Halfpenny

I'm a fan of Dillane but we have huge reserves of locks, I'm also interested to see how POM comes back. I think Dan Robson could be a bolted too if he can break into the England team

I know there's lots of other players and there will be people that won't agree but there's only 23 space for the test team and this is what I think would give the lions the best chance

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

The only thing I would say is that EVERY marginal call between a Welsh player and A.N.Other ended with the Welshman being picked .... Let's not forget Launchbury got left behind for Iain Evans .... Lydiate was picked despite not playing any rugby for a year or so due to a broken ankle

I thought the battle between Kruis and Jones for the 5 shirt was gonna be pretty interesting. But now it's pretty much gift wrapped for Jones.

 

[Maverick1987]

I thought the battle between Kruis and Jones for the 5 shirt was gonna be pretty interesting. But now it's pretty much gift wrapped for Jones.

Kruis and Itoje shouldn't be broken up imo . Statistically (I know it doesn't tell the whole story) Kruis was the best lock in the NH last season

 

[Peat]

I am not denying their relevance.

I am saying that in the greater scheme of things, they are not a clinching argument against the number of Welsh players there.

I'm not saying they were miles ahead of us either. They were ahead though - I think the objective record of trophies won is testament to that.

Did Gatland show some bias to them? I think so. Did he pick anyone utterly unworthy of a Lions place from Wales? No. For the most part, we are talking about fairly minor biases on tight calls. Not a huge issue.

Also - are there any coaches out there that don't mostly stick with what they know?

The only thing I would say is that EVERY marginal call between a Welsh player and A.N.Other ended with the Welshman being picked .... Let's not forget Launchbury got left behind for Iain Evans .... Lydiate was picked despite not playing any rugby for a year or so due to a broken ankle

Heaslip over Faletau? Croft starting the first test over Lydiate? Tom Youngs ahead of Hibbard? Ben Youngs getting the second test?

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

Kruis and Itoje shouldn't be broken up imo . Statistically (I know it doesn't tell the whole story) Kruis was the best lock in the NH last season

I agree completely, but there's no chance that Gats will pick Kruis over Alun Wyn.