(Very) early thoughts on the 2017 Lions

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

My squad, assuming it's of the same make-up as 2013 (6 props, 3 hookers, 5 locks, 7 back rowers, 3 scrum halves, 2 fly halves, 4 centres, 7 back threes, 37 total) would be:

1. McGrath, Vunipola, Marler
2. Hartley, George, Best
3. Nel, Cole, Lee
4. Itoje, Launchbury, J. Gray
5. Jones, Kruis
6. Henderson, Stander
7. Warburton, O'Brien, Hardie
8. Faletau, Vunipola
9. Murray, Webb, Youngs
10. Farrell, Sexton
11. North, Seymour
12. Henshaw, Roberts
13. Joseph, Davies
14. Watson, Nowell
15. Williams, Hogg, Halfpenny

The 3rd THP spot is up for grabs. I've put Lee but I'd say that good seasons from him, Francis, Ross, Furlong or Hill could get any one of them included.

At lock, Lawes, Toner, Charteris and big brother Gray all have potential to take a spot. It's also plausible to take Henderson as a lock and take another back rower.

If O'Mahony can get back to form then he takes Hardie's shirt immediately. Robshaw, Hask, Lyds and Tips also in the running.

For me Binny and Faletau are bolted on as the 8s. I'm sure many would argue Heaslip deserves a spot but I think he's past it. A (very) good season from Hughes could see him take a spot.

At SH again it's a pretty standard selection. Laidlaw, Care, Davies and maybe even Robson all have cases, but I doubt any of them will get in.

10 is a hard one. Leaving out Biggar is harsh and it was tempting to put Faz in as a 12 to make way for Ford, but there are too many quality centres to do that.

The centre spots may be the most hotly contested. As I said, Faz could be considered there and Tuilagi, Taylor, Payne and Bennett are also good options.

Wing is another one with a lot of options, and the 4th spot could simply be luck of the draw. It's tempting to take Brown as a FB with Williams on the wing, but Brown's past his time. Mainland, Trimble, May and maybe Roko are all contenders.

FB is maybe the most simple position to select for. Brown and Payne have cases to make, but Williams and Hogg have been ins other level recently and you can't not take the 2013 player of the tour.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

Accepting what you say for the sake of argument, any halfway decent international hooker emerging over the next year will still trouble him for a place. He can't be bolted on if he's at his quality level.

Personally I think Rory Best is a better hooker in every single facet of the game except the admittedly crucial aspect of pressure throws (which come and go with form for him). I'd also back Ken Owens to compete with him if on form. Plus, of course, I think Jamie George should replace Hartley tomorrow for England as is, so...

There's a few question marks over North's form/fitness but I don't think there's a wing in the north who comes near him for danger and security combined. The only guy close was Tommy Bowe prior to repeated injuries and at his age I'm not sure he's coming back to that level.

I think you're too critical of Hartley, captaincy seems to really suit him and he seems a better player for it. George is a great bench option but I question whether he has the reliability or fitness to be a starter yet. Best has never really impressed me much either, but maybe my eyes are too rose tinted.

On North he's undoubtedly in the squad but if out of form a starting place is questionable. He's among the best attacking wingers in World Rugby when in for, but his wobbly defence has been found out, and I can see NMS running rings around him.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Is there any position in which, assuming they're fit, players are bolted into? Other than Hartley at 2 I can't think of any, and I'm sure there are many who would object to that.

Bolted on: Cole, AWJ, Faletau and North. And if Gatland's coaching then Warbs as well.

Would be very surprised if they didn't starts: McGrath, Hartley, Itoje, Manu, Watson and 1/2p.

Can't see any Scots in the starting XV.

As for Mako, I think he's swimming uphill to even make the plane.

Total wildcard: Genge.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

Bolted on: Cole, AWJ, Faletau and North. And if Gatland's coaching then Warbs as well.

Would be very surprised if they didn't starts: McGrath, Hartley, Itoje, Manu, Watson and 1/2p.

Can't see any Scots in the starting XV.

As for Mako, I think he's swimming uphill to even make the plane.

Total wildcard: Genge.

If Gatland's coach then AWJ is bolted on, if not then Kruis could take the shirt. Same with Faletau, I agree he should definitely start but Binny could get the nod. And I can see Nel starting over Cole with Cole as an impact option from the bench.

Saying Mako's swimming to make the plane is, I think just incorrect. He's the outstanding candidate for the 17 shirt, huge impact and great work rate and hands for a man who weighs 20+ stone.

I can see and expect Manu and Halfpenny not to start. 1/2p hasn't played international rugby in a year and Williams was Wales' best player vs the ABs. I'd be surprised if Manu was injury free come the Lions tour, for him to start would be shocking. I'd have him as more of a wild card than a probable starter.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I do like Tommy Seymore to fill the 14 shirt. Good under the high ball, which is important as ABs will kick a lot, and knows his way to the try line. One of the better Scottish players.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

I'm a fan of Seymour too but I simply don't rate him as much as Watson or Nowell. He's pretty darn inconsistent, so who knows what form he'll be in by then. Plus Watson and Nowell are also solid under the high ball, maybe more so, and I'd argue Watson offers more in attack and Nowell more in defence. I guess it depends what the selector wants though.

 

[Every Time Ref]

I do like Tommy Seymore to fill the 14 shirt. Good under the high ball, which is important as ABs will kick a lot, and knows his way to the try line. One of the better Scottish players.

Reckon he and Hogg'll be the token Scots, possibly plus Gray. Personally I'd love Denton to get in at blindside with Faletau at 8 after both have showstopping seasons there, mind...

Nailed on (ignoring that it's Gatland) - North is possibly the only one I'd stick my neck on the line for. Even Faletau MIGHT be challenged by Binny, although defo favourite. There's no way in hell there are two wingers better than North though, barring miracles.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

If Gatland's coach then AWJ is bolted on, if not then Kruis could take the shirt. Same with Faletau, I agree he should definitely start but Binny could get the nod. And I can see Nel starting over Cole with Cole as an impact option from the bench.

Saying Mako's swimming to make the plane is, I think just incorrect. He's the outstanding candidate for the 17 shirt, huge impact and great work rate and hands for a man who weighs 20+ stone.

I can see and expect Manu and Halfpenny not to start. 1/2p hasn't played international rugby in a year and Williams was Wales' best player vs the ABs. I'd be surprised if Manu was injury free come the Lions tour, for him to start would be shocking. I'd have him as more of a wild card than a probable starter.

I was replying to your post where we were assuming everyone was fit! In their different ways Manu and 1/2p are both game breakers which we'll need as solid and reliable won't cut it down there. Admittedly it's a very big IF that both will be fit and on form.

Among Mako's attributes you didn't mention his scrummaging which still isn't great. As this is one area where we might hope to get a small edge there may be a reluctance to compromise that. McGrath and Healy are good players, Evans is improving rapidly and Marler's generally ahead of Mako in the English pecking order. Mako may well go, but I don't think it's clear cut at all.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

If you've seen the last Lions RAW DVD then you'll see a short clip from the pre-squad selection. It's Rowntree who instantly plumps for Mako when they discuss loose head props because his point of difference is his carrying in the loose. Gatland mentions Ryan Grant as his preferred alternative (Jenkins and Healy were nailed on as the first choices at loosened at the time) but looks like it was Rowntree as forwards coach back in 2013 who swung it in Mako's favour, despite misgivings with his scrummaging. Goes to show whoever Gatland (assuming by press reports he is the one that will be announced on September 7th, and on the basis he has credit in the bank from 2013) chooses as his coaches will have a substantial say on certain positions.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Just thinking of the makeup of the referees for next year's 3 tests. With the home nations and NZ refs ruled out, this leaves the following referees likely to take charge:

Peyper - SA
Joubert - SA
Garces - France
Poite - France
Pascale Gauzare - France.
Gardiner - Australia

If the make up followed the last Lions series (Pollock (NZ), Joubert (SA), Poite (France) we could have (Gardiner, Peyper and Garces). Just thinking the difference between the way the SH and NH refs interpret the specific laws - especially the breakdown will it again massively favour NZ. Maybe it would be better for the Lions to have two of the tests refereed by two of the French refs.

 

[McTallshort]

If you've seen the last Lions RAW DVD then you'll see a short clip from the pre-squad selection. It's Rowntree who instantly plumps for Mako when they discuss loose head props because his point of difference is his carrying in the loose. Gatland mentions Ryan Grant as his preferred alternative (Jenkins and Healy were nailed on as the first choices at loosened at the time) but looks like it was Rowntree as forwards coach back in 2013 who swung it in Mako's favour, despite misgivings with his scrummaging. Goes to show whoever Gatland (assuming by press reports he is the one that will be announced on September 7th, and on the basis he has credit in the bank from 2013) chooses as his coaches will have a substantial say on certain positions.

Well yes a head coach is always going to listen to one of of his specilist coaches on selection otherwise its pointless having them.

Not seen the the 2013 Lions dvd how does it compare to the great one of 1997?

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

I quite liked it although there are some pretty dull sections. Gave a good insight though.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Well yes a head coach is always going to listen to one of of his specilist coaches on selection otherwise its pointless having them.

Not seen the the 2013 Lions dvd how does it compare to the great one of 1997?

Yes, of course but it was telling how Rowntree's choices really did stick. I rewatched it yesterday and when they discuss loose heads Rowntree immediately went for Jenkins, Healy and Vunipola (pointing out Mako's point of difference coming off of the bench). When Gatland (himself the forwards coach in 2009) says Jenkins may want to play in the European Cup final) he suggests Ryan Grant as an alternative, but Rowntree immediately shoots back Corbs' name. And this was really the pecking order when Jenkins and Healy both got injured. Rowntree's initial choices at hooker also stuck (Hibbard, Youngs and Hartley) with Farrell specifically singing the praises of Youngs and his rucking. Gatland was in favour of Best as one of the original 3 hookers and although he did end up going (replacing Hartley) it is telling how in the end Rowntree and Farrell's choices, albeit on national lines, won out. Asking Wilkinson's availability was Farrell's idea, which Gatland did follow through on but as we know Wilkninson turned the Lions down.

On the other hand Howley suggested Danny Care as one of the 3 scrum halves and Gatland plumped instead for Connor Murray as a like for like replacement for Phillips. So it wasn't always the case that Gatland listened to his coaches.

It will be interesting to see who the back up staff are this round. Could Gatland choose the same ones as last time on the basis of continuity.

Just found the Living with the Lions 1997 on YouTube so will watch it before comparing it.

 

[McTallshort]

You mean you have never watched it?

 

[Bada-Bing!]

You mean you have never watched it?

i had the video of the Lions 1997 series on VHS, but no, not the Living with Lions 1997 video.

 

[McTallshort]

i had the video of the Lions 1997 series on VHS, but no, not the Living with Lions 1997 video.

Well your in for a treat then. Jim Telfer is worth watching it for alone as is Simon Shaw dressed as "Bruce"

 

[BPM]

Apologies in advance for the massive post!

I think the squad will probably be 40 and I've taken some real punts on fitness etc. but assuming players are injury free and in good form, my squad would be:

1. M. Vunipola / McGrath / Marler
2. Hartley / Best / George
3. Cole / Nel / Hill
4. Itoje / Launchbury / J. Gray
5. Jones / Kruis / Henderson
6. O'Mahony / Robshaw
7. O'Brien / Warburton / Tipuric
8. Faletau / B. Vunipola
9. Webb / Murray / Youngs
10. Ford / Farrell / Sexton
11. North / May
12. Henshaw / Tuilagi
13. Joseph / Davies
14. Watson / Seymour / Nowell
15. Hogg / Halfpenny / Williams

I definitely don't think it's a given that O'Mahoney, O'Brien and Tuilagi can find peak fitness and form, but if they can, they're arguably the best available option in each position.

By position, my thoughts are as follows:

Loosehead:

Personally, I'd regard this as one of the easier choices as I think Mako, McGrath and Marler (in any order depending on form) are the three best in their position. Alistair Dickinson and Rob Evans are good, solid players, but I wouldn't put them on quite the same level. Cian Healy can't be disregarded altogether, but he's not been the same player following his injuries and as he's in direct competition with McGrath for both club and country, I think he's got an uphill struggle to make it. Like OldHooker, I think Genge has huge potential, but this tour is way too soon IMO. He would need to be starting regularly for Tigers and leapfrog Mako/Marler with England to be in with a shout and I think that's unlikely.

Hooker:

IMO, Hartley, Best and George are the top three Lions Hookers right now and personally, I don't think Baldwin or Owens offer anything better or different to warrant breaking up that pecking order. Ross Ford is a complete NO for me.

If Gatland wants to go for an impact sub, there are some interesting possibles. I'm excited to see Tom Youngs this year. I think it's easy to forget how good he was at points pre-injury and if he can demonstrate that he's managed to improve the weaker parts of his game and has a great season with Leicester, he could go ahead of George (irrespective of Eddie Jones' pecking order). Also Sean Cronin's ability as a pure impact sub is definitely worth considering as a wildcard option.

Tighthead:

Assuming they are fit, Cole and Nel are both in the match-day 23 and I'm fairly ambivalent over who starts. As Toby said, the third Tighthead spot is definitely up for grabs. I think Paul Hill will establish himself as first choice for Saints and as Cole's understudy for England this season. I also think he has a stronger all-round game than his main competitors. However, if Gatland prioritises the set-piece, then Mike Ross' experience could be valuable and Samson Lee will definitely be challenging. If Bealham takes over from Ross for Ireland and goes well, he could challenge. Francis isn't good enough IMO.

Lock:

Arguably the most competitive position in the squad. For me, Itoje and Jones are the certainties, then it really depends on whether there are 5 or 6 in the squad. Launchbury, Kruis, Henderson and Gray are the next four for me. If it's only five, it would be a very tough call, but I'd probably lose Jonny Gray. Charteris and Lawes are probably next in line, then Toner and Ritchie Gray could make a case, but I think it's hard to look beyond the top 5/6. I've also seen people mention Dillane as a possible bolter, but with so many, excellent, experienced options to choose from, I don't see it as even a remote possibility.

Flanker:

Probably the toughest to call. I'd say there are lots of players with legitimate cases for selection but no-one that should be an automatic pick. For example, if the squad had been picked in July, Robshaw and Haskell would have been in it, but if O'Mahony and O'Brien are fit and in form, I'd argue that they're superior players.

For me, the options at 6 are either work-horses or carriers. If Gatland wants a hard-working 6, O'Mahony IMO offers the best combination of work-rate, aggression and some carrying ability. For pure work-rate/defensive capability, Robshaw has to be considered, as does Lydiate (who we all know is a Gatland favourite).

If he wants more of a carrying 6, the options are quite different. Stander would be an obvious option (who can also cover 8) and after his performances in NZ, I think Moriarty has forced himself in to the Wales side and I think he's a genuine contender. Who knows how Hughes and/or Williams will go for England? If either comes through and pushes their way in to the England side, they could be wild card options.

At 7, it's equally tough. Warburton has massive credit in the bank with Gatland, but I don't think he's been anywhere near as effective as a fetcher in the past couple of years, so I think he needs a big season to be first-choice IMO. If O'Brien is able to find fitness and form, he'd be my first choice as he offers the best all-round game. If Haskell is in the same form as he was on the Australia tour, he'll be hard to overlook for the squad. Depending on how he performs with Scotland, John Hardie is also a good option - particularly given the insight he'll have in to how the breakdown is contested/refereed in NZ. Tipuric is the wild-card/game changer for me. He's a very different option to the other flankers in Lions contention and personally, I'd take him as an impact sub. Beyond that, I don't think there are any other realistic contenders/wildcards?

Number 8

One of the easiest picks IMO. I think it's fair to say that Faletau and Billy Vunipola are pretty-much guaranteed to go. Faletau is first choice for me, partially because I think he has the stronger, all-round game and partially because with Webb a likely starter at Scrum Half, I think the 8/9 combination is key. I also think Billy is arguably better used as an impact sub for the Lions.

After those two, Heaslip and Denton could make a case, but I don't see a third 8 going and if Stander, Moriarty or Hughes are picked, they can cover 6 and 8.

Scrum Half

Webb, Murray and Youngs are the most likely. I think the main question is who starts out of Webb or Murray. I think it’s fair to say that Webb is the better attacking Scrum Half â€" he’s certainly more dangerous from a sniping perspective, whereas Murray arguably has the better pass/kicking game. Personally, I’d start with Webb and look at Murray as the guy to close out the game.

Considering that Youngs is unlikely to start, there is a case for Care as arguably the better impact option. Potentially Gareth Davies has a similar case for inclusion? I also wouldn’t entirely rule Laidlaw out as a possible mid-week captain, but to be honest, I think he’s fourth choice at best.

Fly Half

This will probably be the most controversial area of selection IMO.

For me, Ford is the most talented of the available options with the best attacking game and a good tactical game kicking from hand. Admittedly, his place-kicking is not in the class of Farrell or Biggar’s, but with options like Halfpenny available, I don’t think this is a deal-breaker. With good performances in the AIs and the Six Nations, I think Ford could make a very strong case to start. Particularly when you consider he will get significantly better service from Webb or Murray than he does from Youngs.

Farrell’s strengths and weaknesses are well documented. Nothing has changed, but the pros massively outweigh the cons for me and he has to go.

Sexton is an odd one. I think injuries have taken their toll and I don’t think his form over the past couple of years warrants him being the automatic selection most seem to regard him as. If there are no fitness doubts, I think he’s too good not to take, but I’d want to see a big upturn in his performance over the next 12 months.

Biggar also divides opinion. Undoubtedly he has an excellent boot, but I think it’s fair to say that he hasn’t consistently managed to get the Wales back line operating as well it might have. Assuming there are only 2 or 3 spots for the 10 shirt, I think he loses out.

Finn Russell and Paddy Jackson both have something to offer, but I can’t see them getting in ahead of Ford, Farrell, Sexton or Biggar.

Centre

Another, highly competitive position. I think the certainties are probably Joseph and Davies, which probably takes care of the 13 shirt. Payne could state a decent case and his ability to cover 15 is definitely useful. However, I don’t think he’s strong enough in attack to really challenge Joseph or Davies as a try-scoring threat. Similarly, Bennett could be in contention, but I think he’d have to significantly out-perform the others to leapfrog them which I don’t think is likely.

The 12 shirt is much more open. Personally, I think Jamie Roberts is past his best. A lot will depend upon Tuilagi’s fitness and if/how he performs as a 12 for England. If he’s fit and can make a success of playing at 12, I think he can do a similar job to Roberts, but with more destructive potential.

As far as I understand, Leinster have signed Henshaw as a 13, but he’s seen plenty of game time at 12 for Ireland and I think he also offers more than Roberts.

While I know it won’t be a popular option, if England continue with the 10/12 axis of Ford and Farrell and keep winning, I think it’s impossible to dismiss as a Lions combination. Even more so if it improves.

Duncan Taylor is a very solid option who can cover 12 and 13 and is strong in both defence and attack. I certainly wouldn’t be unhappy to see him in the squad, but I’m not sure he stands out enough to be picked ahead of bigger names.

Beyond that, it’s wildcard territory. Stuart Olding looked decent on Ireland’s SA tour and if he can build upon that, he offers an interesting option as more of a playmaker than the other possible 12s. If Scott Williams can dislodge Roberts, he could state a decent case â€" particularly as he can cover 12 and 13. Lastly, I don’t necessarily see it happening, but if Ben Te’o rips up the AP with Worcester and forces his way in to the England side, he could be in the mix.

Wing

For me, North and Watson stand-out as the two most likely options. After those two, I’d actually rather play Williams on the wing rather than the next best specialist wingers.

Wing isn’t a stellar position for the Lions contributors and after North and Watson, there’s not a huge amount to choose between the other contenders IMO.

If Jonny May can find his pre-World Cup form, he has to be a strong contender and then the other possibles are probably, Nowell and Seymour.

It’s possibly a touch harsh but, Maitland, Visser, Trimble, Earls, Zebo, James and Amos are all a bit of a step down for me and unless Cuthbert re-finds some kind of form, he’s not even in the conversation.

As a wildcard, Wade would be an outside shout. If he’s ripping it up in the AP and Europe with Wasps, Gatland could be tempted and he did call him up as a reserve in Australia … then again he also called-up Billy Twelvetrees …

Fullback

This one is pretty easy IMO. It’s hard to look beyond Hogg, Halfpenny and Williams.

Brown and Payne could also be in with a reasonable shout, but after that I’d say it’s a pretty closed shop.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Hill is nowhere near Samson Lee, at the moment, and I can't see that changing in the next 6 or so months.
I think Lee, Cole and Nel are basically nailed on tightheads.
I'm surprised at the calls for Halfpenny as well, he's played a handful of games in the past season or two and has looked increasingly limited in everywhere but his goalkicking. Sanjay is the far better choice for Wales and Lions

 

[Peat]

I can see Hill overtaking Lee for a tour of NZ. You're unlikely to win or lose a game in the scrum down there but players that can really make an impact in the loose are at a premium. Lee is definitely not the latter last I noticed.

Furlong or Bealham seem a bit more likely at the moment though.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

I can see Hill overtaking Lee for a tour of NZ. You're unlikely to win or lose a game in the scrum down there but players that can really make an impact in the loose are at a premium. Lee is definitely not the latter last I noticed.

Furlong or Bealham seem a bit more likely at the moment though.

I agree with this. ATM Lee's in front of Hill, but vs NZ he looked slow and lazy, even for a THP. Hill on the other hand is fast and has a high work rate. As I said, Lee is in front but a good season from Hill (or Brookes come to think if it) could see him on the plane.