(Very) early thoughts on the 2017 Lions

[Rich Taff]

Australia were extremely poor throughout the series and if Australia had managed to snag a victory it would of raised some concerns over the strength on the Lions heading to NZ shores.

'would have'

(yes, I don't change when it comes to THAT!)

 

[Tony Manx]

'would have'

(yes, I don't change when it comes to THAT!)

Haha! You do not read a lot of "theese" threads then as "their" "is"some shocking grammatical "spellin" errors "hear"!!!

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Watching NZ obliterate the Wallabies line out the last 3 times they played makes me think this is an area the Lions can't afford to mess up on. I would like to see a pack along the lines of:

1. McGrath
2. Hartley
3. Cole
4. Itoje
5. AWJ
6. Henderson
7. Warburton
8. Faletau.

That would give the Lions at least 5 jumping options in the line out and a half decent thrower in Hartley.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

Swap out AWJ for Kruis as well as maybe Nel for Cole and that's my pack too.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Swap out AWJ for Kruis as well as maybe Nel for Cole and that's my pack too.

Yep those two aren't far away from first choice. Either starting or on the bench. AWJ was immense in the last Lions tour and for me it's between him, Hartley and Warburton as captain. The more leaders in the pack the better.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

Yep those two aren't far away from first choice. Either starting or on the bench. AWJ was immense in the last Lions tour and for me it's between him, Hartley and Warburton as captain. The more leaders in the pack the better.

I wouldn't have thought Kruis will get on the bench. Offers no impact and with Henderson at 6 a lock on the bench may not be needed. I'd go for 19. O'Brien 20. Vunipola. Maximum impact from the bench. If we decide that a lock on the bench is necessary then I'd have Launchbury there, again impact.

 

[BPM]

I agree that Kruis isn't an impact option from the bench. For me he either starts or isn't in the 23. Then again, I think it's fair to say that few locks are massive impact players to be honest. Perhaps Henderson could be if he doesn't start.

Arguably the biggest challenge that the Lions face is a lack of familiarity/cohesion. Obviously that's part and parcel of being a scratch team, but I don't see the wisdom of breaking up the best tight five unit when alternative options are markedly better.

Don't get me wrong, I rate McGrath and Nel, but I don't think they offer a significant enough upgrade on Mako or Cole to make it worth breaking up a key unit to accommodate them. Depending on form, I'd be more inclined to look at AWJ as a possible starter, but if England are going well, the tight five have a very strong argument to start IMO.

 

[Peat]

The point of the Lions is to overcome that challenge of lacking cohesion though. If you turn around to the players and say "The best players will not be in the test team so we can keep units together", I think you will fail to get maximum buy in from the players. I think that's the quickest way to lose a Lions tour.

I'd also add that if the boost you get from cohesion is bigger than the boost you get from playing better players, that'll come out in the form book anyway. If it doesn't though and the better players find cohesion quickly, then there's no reason not to pick them. Not that we know what form and fitness will look like then.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Good point Toby regarding not needing lock cover on the bench if AWJ/Krius, Itoje and Henderson are on the park. Jerseys 19 and 20 can be used for back row cover.

BPM - I like a Lions team with a good mix from at least 3 of the four nations. Still, having said that the last Lions team which won was predominantly made up of he Welsh team, the 1989 team, especially the pack were made up of England players. The biggest obstacle for the Lions team is to pick on merit and get passed the partisan lines drawn between the four nations.

 

[BPM]

The point of the Lions is to overcome that challenge of lacking cohesion though. If you turn around to the players and say "The best players will not be in the test team so we can keep units together", I think you will fail to get maximum buy in from the players. I think that's the quickest way to lose a Lions tour.

I'd also add that if the boost you get from cohesion is bigger than the boost you get from playing better players, that'll come out in the form book anyway. If it doesn't though and the better players find cohesion quickly, then there's no reason not to pick them. Not that we know what form and fitness will look like then.

I don't disagree with the principle. My point is that I don't think McGrath or Nel are noticeably better than Mako or Cole to the extent that it would warrant splitting up a very effective front row unit. A fit, in form AWJ has more to offer than Kruis in terms of leadership and overall ability, so he would make my side. Although on recent form, Kruis would probably be ahead of him IMO.

On The_Blindside's point re. having a mix of players from all 4 nations - I fully agree. Assuming all players are fit and in top form, my starting XV would be pretty mixed. I was specifically talking about the tight five options. My back row quite possibly wouldn't have any England players and I'd certainly have Webb, North in the side and one of Hogg, Halfpenny or possibly Williams at 15.

Admittedly, I'd struggle for Scots to start other than Hogg, but Nel would be in my 23 and I think J. Gray, Hardie, Bennett and Taylor would all have a case for making the squad. I also wouldn't totally dismiss Laidlaw as a possible midweek captain, but 9 will be pretty competitive and I think Webb, Murray and Youngs are probably ahead of him.

 

[Peat]

Personally I think there's a strong case for McGrath who's got a stronger track record than either Marler or Vunipola (imo and all that). I can't say I've watched enough of Nel to know where I'd place him against Cole.

And on recent form, I'd be very reluctant to start Kruis against the Kiwis. He looked like a passenger in Oz. But then, I've never rated him that highly.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Personally I think there's a strong case for McGrath who's got a stronger track record than either Marler or Vunipola (imo and all that).

Took the words right out of my mouth,
No way Mako can be considered a shoe in for the 1 shirt.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

Is there any position in which, assuming they're fit, players are bolted into? Other than Hartley at 2 I can't think of any, and I'm sure there are many who would object to that.

 

[Peat]

Is there any position in which, assuming they're fit, players are bolted into? Other than Hartley at 2 I can't think of any, and I'm sure there are many who would object to that.

Too right I would, he's not good enough to be bolted on.

I think George North is about it.

 

[McTallshort]

The All Blacks most certainly fear losing, its the fear of losing that makes us constantly evolve. I know every team in the world hates losing but for the All Blacks and the NZ rugby public its extremely horrifying to experience a loss in a black jersey. That is why as a nation we are gripped and demanding in our expectations of how the All Blacks perform.

I am very glad that England rolled Australia 3 - 0. Australia were extremely poor throughout the series and if Australia had managed to snag a victory it would of raised some concerns over the strength on the Lions heading to NZ shores. 3 - 0 allows up some great northern hope and hype - though if the Lions can concede 40 points in a game like England did in the final game then the All Blacks will roll them much more easily than people suspect.

I expect this will be an epic series, we have 12 months to have the next generation of All Blacks ready for an out and out war. This is what New Zealand as a nation lives for - the fear of All Blacks death/loss and the challenge to overcome it with our skill sets and determination.

With the tour schedule as it is you should win the series without any problems but then that's the whole point I suppose: Milk the Lions tour for as much revenue as possible while making it almost impossible for the Lions to win.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

Too right I would, he's not good enough to be bolted on.

I think George North is about it.

I would argue that when you consider his competition though (Ross, Best, Baldwin etc.) he's good enough.

I was thinking North but he'd only just started to find form after his concussion, so with his current injury, I question what form he'll be in by the Lions tour. With Watson, Nowell, Seymour, Hogg, Williams, Trimble and more as potential wing options, I can't see him walking into the team.

 

[ratsapprentice]

Too right I would, he's not good enough to be bolted on.

I think George North is about it.

Yiss.

 

[BPM]

I would argue that when you consider his competition though (Ross, Best, Baldwin etc.) he's good enough.

Totally agree with this. Currently, I'd probably have Hartley, Best and George as the top 3 Hookers.

Provided North is fit, he's first choice for one of the wing slots, probably with Watson on the other wing. Beyond that it's hard to say. I'd definitely take Liam Williams as a back 3 player covering both wing and fullback, but after that I think a fit May, Nowell and Seymour are the main contenders for the wing spots. Trimble is solid, but he's lost a bit of pace and I don't think he's that much of a threat these days. For me, he, Zebo, Earls, Visser, Maitland and James aren't quite as good. Who knows, Gatland might go for a wildcard like Wade? He liked him enough to call him up as a reserve last time so if he carries on ripping-up the AP, it's not an insane shout.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

2017 British and Irish Lions tour fixtures:

3 June - Provincial union team (Toll Stadium, Whangarei)

7 June - Blues (Eden Park, Auckland)

10 June - Crusaders (AMI Stadium, Christchurch)

13 June - Highlanders (Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin)

17 June - Maori (International Stadium, Rotorua)

20 June - Chiefs (Waikato Stadium, Hamilton)

24 June - New Zealand (First Test, Eden Park, Auckland)

27 June - Hurricanes (Westpac Stadium, Wellington)

1 July - New Zealand (Second Test, Westpac Stadium, Wellington)

8 July - New Zealand (Third Test, Eden Park, Auckland)

The schedule really does screw the Lions big time though. Aviva Premiership and Pro 12 finals being played on the last weekend of May and first warm up game being played on the 3rd June, means none of the players involved in those finals will be involved. Hard enough a scratch team playing the back to back world champions, a settled team and in their own back yard when the schedule hamstrings the Lions so badly. Still could the clubs not forgo the semi finals this one year? I have never been a fan of the play off format.

 

[Peat]

Accepting what you say for the sake of argument, any halfway decent international hooker emerging over the next year will still trouble him for a place. He can't be bolted on if he's at his quality level.

Personally I think Rory Best is a better hooker in every single facet of the game except the admittedly crucial aspect of pressure throws (which come and go with form for him). I'd also back Ken Owens to compete with him if on form. Plus, of course, I think Jamie George should replace Hartley tomorrow for England as is, so...

There's a few question marks over North's form/fitness but I don't think there's a wing in the north who comes near him for danger and security combined. The only guy close was Tommy Bowe prior to repeated injuries and at his age I'm not sure he's coming back to that level.