(Very) early thoughts on the 2017 Lions

[Groundhog]

Yes a lot of back rows (Ireland's is probably the prime example) do have their players not fill the roles that the position is considered to require. However, for the Lions I would expect that when they have such a huge selection area, they will go for players that fill the classic roles of each position. So a 6 that tackles anything and everything, a 7 that is great at getting turnovers and an 8 that can carry through brick walls. Sadly for him, Heaslip doesn't fill that role.

I think that's absolutely fair too. If that's the balance that the Lions go for, then absolutely fair enough Heaslip doesn't fit, but I think it is important not to take away from what a stalwart Heaslip is and will continue to be for Ireland.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Cruel Rats, cruel :lol:

Warburton, Tipuric, O'Brien, Barclay, Hardie, with an honourable mention to Chris Henry.

Could probably add Van Der Flier to that too.

Yes a lot of back rows (Ireland's is probably the prime example) do have their players not fill the roles that the position is considered to require. However, for the Lions I would expect that when they have such a huge selection area, they will go for players that fill the classic roles of each position. So a 6 that tackles anything and everything, a 7 that is great at getting turnovers and an 8 that can carry through brick walls. Sadly for him, Heaslip doesn't fill that role.

He didn't in 2013 and started the first two tests. You say 2013 but it's really been since the emergence of Sean O'Brien in 2010/11 that Heaslip hasn't carried like he did at the start of his career. I have him down as the best 8 on the weekend in what was easily the most tactically sound performance of any of his peers, he was the best in last round of the 6n too if memory serves me right. I have no stats to back this up because ESPN scrum haven't put up stars from the Ireland game but I'm going to guess that he was part of a pack which were in the top two in turnovers won at the weekend, he was probably up there with Toner in the amount of rucks hit which will be a large number, unlikely to have given away three penalties like Faletau and might not be too far off Faletau's 36 meters. He won't have made as many tackles as Faletau's 13 but there were probably a lot less tackles to make.


For Lions selection, I don't care, I've gone off the Lions in the last two years and think everyone would be better off without them. However, the choice at 8 will likely come down to who the 6 is if SO'B Stander, Henderson or O'Mahoney were doing good work at 6 to the point one of them had to be picked, Heaslip would be preferential if it were guys like Warbs or Lydiate at 6 a carrier will be needed at 8. The important thing about this is that I just realised if the were good we could see 4. Wyn Jones 5. Itoje 6. Henderson 7. SO'B that might make me like the Lions again...

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

Could probably add Van Der Flier to that too.




He didn't in 2013 and started the first two tests. You say 2013 but it's really been since the emergence of Sean O'Brien in 2010/11 that Heaslip hasn't carried like he did at the start of his career. I have him down as the best 8 on the weekend in what was easily the most tactically sound performance of any of his peers, he was the best in last round of the 6n too if memory serves me right. I have no stats to back this up because ESPN scrum haven't put up stars from the Ireland game but I'm going to guess that he was part of a pack which were in the top two in turnovers one at the weekend, he was probably up there with Toner in the amount of rucks hit which will be a large number, unlikely to have given away three penalties like Faletau and might not be too far off Faletau's 36 meters. He won't have made as many tackles as Faletau's 13 but there were probably a lot less tackles to make.


For Lions selection, I don't care, I've gone off the Lions in the last two years and think everyone would be better off without them. However, the choice at 8 will likely come down to who the 6 is if SO'B Stander, Henderson or O'Mahoney were doing good work at 6 to the point one of them had to be picked, Heaslip would be preferential if it were guys like Warbs or Lydiate at 6 a carrier will be needed at 8. The important thing about this is that I just realised if the were good we could see 4. Wyn Jones 5. Itoje 6. Henderson 7. SO'B that might make me like the Lions again...

I think suggesting that SOB start for the Lions is frankly unrealistic. When in form he's maybe the best back rower the Lions have access to, but with his string of injuries you can't make the assumption that he will be in form. Personally I'd love to see a 4. Itoje 5. Wyn Jones 6. Henderson 7. Warbs 8. Faletau 19. SOB 20. Vunipola (No 2nd row needed on the bench if you've got 1 at 6).

I disagree on this weekends performances. Heaslip was probably better than Billy, but Faletau was on another level. I think Faletau can match and beat Heaslip on the work rate aspect of the game that Heaslip is praised for, but is also capable of filling the carrying 8 role, which is why I say that after Read he's the best 8 in the world ATM.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I think suggesting that SOB start for the Lions is frankly unrealistic. When in form he's maybe the best back rower the Lions have access to, but with his string of injuries you can't make the assumption that he will be in form. Personally I'd love to see a 4. Itoje 5. Wyn Jones 6. Henderson 7. Warbs 8. Faletau 19. SOB 20. Vunipola (No 2nd row needed on the bench if you've got 1 at 6).

I disagree on this weekends performances. Heaslip was probably better than Billy, but Faletau was on another level. I think Faletau can match and beat Heaslip on the work rate aspect of the game that Heaslip is praised for, but is also capable of filling the carrying 8 role, which is why I say that after Read he's the best 8 in the world ATM.

I did mean to say "if the Gods were good" there, one of many hungover typos! I don't disagree with you on Faletau as no. 2, there were a couple of rounds in the 6n where I was raving about him iirc but yesterday while being very good for the most part he did concede three of the seven penalties conceded to the All Blacks. If I got stats from the Ireland game and found that Heaslip gave away almost half of Ireland's penalties I'd change my mind on this but my hazy memory of the game would make me believe that he did not. Heaslip put in a performance with a very positive contribution to winning a game of rugby and while Faletau's contribution was positive overall the three penalties conceded contributed to the All Blacks winning that game. Had Wales played SA yesterday and Ireland played NZ we'd have likely needed something unprecedented for Heaslip to come out on top between the two so it's not exactly a fair comparison.

 

[Peat]

Heaslip conceded 2 out of 8. I'll post up the stats in the game thread.

 

[munstermuffin]

For what its worth my views of Headlip are:
He can be lazy in that he gets complacent but certainly has attributes. The best thing that happened him the last 12 months for Ireland is the emergence of serious competition. This has meant he's upped his game massively. And I say this having watched him enough and slated him enough.
Regards his strengths Heaslip is probably the best carrier out wide. He isnt effective carrying tight in.
Again his penalty concession is down to previous pount on complacency.
But Alpha is right in saying it is impossible to judge for sure as NZ and SA are on 2 different planets in terms of where they are at. But equally you can only beat whats in front of you.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

For what its worth my views of Headlip are:
He can be lazy in that he gets complacent but certainly has attributes. The best thing that happened him the last 12 months for Ireland is the emergence of serious competition. This has meant he's upped his game massively. And I say this having watched him enough and slated him enough.
Regards his strengths Heaslip is probably the best carrier out wide. He isnt effective carrying tight in.
Again his penalty concession is down to previous pount on complacency.
But Alpha is right in saying it is impossible to judge for sure as NZ and SA are on 2 different planets in terms of where they are at. But equally you can only beat whats in front of you.

When you say he's the strongest carrier out wide, do you mean out of the Irish back rowers or out of the Lions 8 options? If the Irish back rowers then yes, I agree, if out of the Lions 8s, then Faletau is probably the best 8 in the world at it.

 

[munstermuffin]

When you say he's the strongest carrier out wide, do you mean out of the Irish back rowers or out of the Lions 8 options? If the Irish back rowers then yes, I agree, if out of the Lions 8s, then Faletau is probably the best 8 in the world at it.

No out of all Lions. I've watched Toby alot for Lions, Dragons and Wales and I think Heaslip has been more consistent and I'd bet having seen both his metres gained is more. Is Toby the better all round player? Possibly but Heaslip I've to be fair is a good man out wide and is like a Super Rugby 8 in that, and I've no doubt here, he's better for being out wide and linking with off loads.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

No out of all Lions. I've watched Toby alot for Lions, Dragons and Wales and I think Heaslip has been more consistent and I'd bet having seen both his metres gained is more. Is Toby the better all round player? Possibly but Heaslip I've to be fair is a good man out wide and is like a Super Rugby 8 in that, and I've no doubt here, he's better for being out wide and linking with off loads.

I have to say I disagree. It doesn't happen so much anymore, but in 2014 Faletau was often used almost like an outside centre at times. And look at his try vs England this 6 Nations and his try vs the All Blacks yesterday. Heaslip's good, but Faletau is simply better. I would say in every aspect of the game. He's a stronger carrier, tackles more, is faster, better under the high ball, better at getting turnover ball. To me there is no contest between them. Faletau is world class, Heaslip used to be, but his time has passed.

 

[munstermuffin]

I have to say I disagree. It doesn't happen so much anymore, but in 2014 Faletau was often used almost like an outside centre at times. And look at his try vs England this 6 Nations and his try vs the All Blacks yesterday. Heaslip's good, but Faletau is simply better. I would say in every aspect of the game. He's a stronger carrier, tackles more, is faster, better under the high ball, better at getting turnover ball. To me there is no contest between them. Faletau is world class, Heaslip used to be, but his time has passed.

I'd agree Headlip os pushing on. Again though I don't think its as clear as you make it out to be but accept it is a fair debate.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

With the final weeks of the International tours i would go with:
Assuming we take around 38/39 players.
Coaches: Cotter (forwards), Schmidt (Backs) (let's face it these 2 would be desperate to beat NZ), Gustard (Defence), Jenkins (Kicking),
Hooker: Hartley, Best, George (This is because i think he would be an excellent impact sub/mid week player)
Loosehead: McGrath, Vunipola, Marler/Evans
Tighthead: Cole, Furlong, Nel
Locks: Wyn Jones, Itoje, Launchbury/Lawes, Kruis, J.Gray
Blindside: Strander, Haskell (for the camera and off field stuff ) Maybe Robshaw/Lydiate
Openside: Warburton, Tips, Hardie,
Number 8: Vunipola, Faletau
Scrum Half: Webb, Murray, Laidlaw
Fly Half: Bigger, Sexton, Ford,
Inside Centre: Farrell, Roberts
Outisde Centre: Joseph, Davies,
Wing: North, Timble, Nowell, Seymour
Full Back: Hogg, Williams, Watson (To cover the back 3)

 

[Rich Taff]

I think go-go gadget (Charteris) needs to be there as well. He was described in one newspaper as 'destroyer of mauls', and his ridiculous squid-like reach is insane. (plus his couple of years in France have hardened him up)

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

I think go-go gadget (Charteris) needs to be there as well. He was described in one newspaper as 'destroyer of mauls', and his ridiculous squid-like reach is insane. (plus his couple of years in France have hardened him up)

With the quality of locks around, I'd say Chateris' chances are very slim. I'd say Wyn Jones, 4 English locks, Henderson and the Gray brothers are ahead of him. Maybe Davies as well

 

[Peat]

To be honest, I question AWJ's presence. I know he's a fantastic leader and scrummager, but the Lions could take an entire squad of guys who can genuinely match Retallick and Whitelock pretty much stride for stride around the park. The prospect of creating a pack every inch as athletic as theirs and really, really tearing into them is incredibly enticing. Does AWJ fit into that?

I think my current ideal Lions 15 would be:

Halfpenny; Trimble, Joseph, Marshall, North; Ford, Webb
McGrath, Hartley, Cole, Itoje, Henderson, O'Mahony, Warburton, Faletau

Best, M Vunipola, Furlong, Launchbury, ?, Murray, Sexton, L Williams

Can't decide who I'd want as bench back rower. Billy is the next best player but lacks flexibility in case of injury. I want someone who's athletic, versatile and a good line out jumper, but we appear to be short on that. Maybe I start Billy and have Faletau to finish it.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

Starting XV: I've opted for supreme physicality in the forwards. We aren't going to beat NZ playing their game, we need to play a real NH style of physical, bruising rugby amongst our forwards to beat them. The backs I've selected are there to play a similar game to England's, that being that they are reliable in defence, have a great kicking game and also offer real strike runners in the outside backs.

1. McGrath 2. Hartley (c) 3. Nel
4. Henderson 5. Itoje
6. Haskell 7. Warburton 8. Faletau
9. Webb 10. Ford
12. Farrell 13. Joseph
11. North 14. Williams 15. Hogg

The bench is designed to provide maximum impact in the last 20 minutes:
16. George 17. Vunipola (Mako) 18. Cole
19. Lawes 20. Vunipola (Billy)
21. Murray 22. Davies (Jonathan) 23. Watson

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Basing this on all international rugby since the 6 nations with a bit of artistic licence at 6 because no one has impressed me much there.
McGrath - Hartley - Nel
Itoje - Henderson
O'Mahoney (c) - Faletau - Warburton

Murray - Sexton
Roberts - Henshaw
North - Williams - Nowell

Subs: Best, Vunipola, Cole, AWJ/Launchbury, Stander, Webb, Farrell, Hogg
Reserves: Marler, Furlong, George/Cronin, Launchbury/AWJ, Charteris, Vunipola, Murphy, Haskell, Laidlaw, Ford, Davies, Joseph, Trimble, Watson, Payne

12/13 Irish and English
9 Welsh
A few decent leftovers too.

I don't think you can beat the All Blacks with a Lions side by being anything more than consistent in attack and the tightest defence in the world. The best tactical kicker and game manager is needed in Sexton, a strong presence at 9 with a great box kick, centres who can hurt their's in attack and defence and a back three who can field a ball and counter well. One dude knows how to do this and that's why I propose to get the band back together in the coaching box with Schmidt and Cotter and whomever else they see fit to join them.

That's how to lose a series 2-1, I'd rather Gatland take a Wales/England select squad and lose 3 zip though.

 

[ncurd]

Alpha Bro/Peat only 3-4 starting England players? Can't say I'm convinced by that I wouldn't advocate a Gatland 9 players one side team but more Welsh/Irish starters than English?

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Alpha Bro/Peat only 3-4 starting England players? Can't say I'm convinced by that I wouldn't advocate a Gatland 9 players one side team but more Welsh/Irish starters than English?

McGrath > Marler/Mako
Nel > Cole's
Henderson > Kruis and more suited to play with Itoje than Launchbury
Faletau better than Vunipola and I wouldn't have Haskell and Robshaw near a team to play the All Blacks
Murray and Webb are much better than England's options at 9
A fit Sexton is still better than Ford and Farrell and a more solid and tactically astute option to beat the All Blacks.
Roberts and Henshaw a call on style of play, Joseph won't get the space he needs against the All Blacks and he doesn't create that on his own yet at this point in his career, having a centre who's good in the air could be useful too and North and Williams are better than Watson and Brown.

Being the best team doesn't mean you have the best players in all positions, what I'd say about England is that their foundations are built on having a lot of 7/10 players and guys like Itoje, Vunipola, Farrell and Hartley as better than that fulfilling important roles whereas there's starters for Ireland and Wales who wouldn't be in an England 23who are considered vital.

That's a messy post, sorry but half typing and half watching our 20's.

 

[Peat]

Alpha Bro/Peat only 3-4 starting England players? Can't say I'm convinced by that I wouldn't advocate a Gatland 9 players one side team but more Welsh/Irish starters than English?

We've got a better collective, they're got better stars. Are there any picks you'd disagree with in the here and now?

Over the next year, I think we might see some more England players muscle their way in. I can see them going to having about half the team. But not today. They need to put in those performances that make them international stars first.

A fit Sexton is still better than Ford and Farrell and a more solid and tactically astute option to beat the All Blacks.
Roberts and Henshaw a call on style of play, Joseph won't get the space he needs against the All Blacks and he doesn't create that on his own yet at this point in his career, having a centre who's good in the air could be useful too and North and Williams are better than Watson and Brown.

Ford is a lot more tactically astute than you give him credit for and his tactical kicking is probably his strongest point.

Roberts I think is now too slow and too battered. I wouldn't consider him.

I went with Joseph with Henshaw because I trust him a little bit more in defence. Henshaw was close. Joseph mightn't get much space, but if he gets 3 chances to go, he'll do damage with all of them and I like that.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

McGrath > Marler/Mako
Nel > Cole's
Henderson > Kruis and more suited to play with Itoje than Launchbury
Faletau better than Vunipola and I wouldn't have Haskell and Robshaw near a team to play the All Blacks
Murray and Webb are much better than England's options at 9
A fit Sexton is still better than Ford and Farrell and a more solid and tactically astute option to beat the All Blacks.
Roberts and Henshaw a call on style of play, Joseph won't get the space he needs against the All Blacks and he doesn't create that on his own yet at this point in his career, having a centre who's good in the air could be useful too and North and Williams are better than Watson and Brown.

Being the best team doesn't mean you have the best players in all positions, what I'd say about England is that their foundations are built on having a lot of 7/10 players and guys like Itoje, Vunipola, Farrell and Hartley as better than that fulfilling important roles whereas there's starters for Ireland and Wales who wouldn't be in an England 23who are considered vital.

That's a messy post, sorry but half typing and half watching our 20's.

After this justification I only disagree with O'Mahony and Sexton. I have serious doubts as to whether POM can return to form in time. I hope he can, because he's by far the best 6 in Europe when he is in form, I just don't think he can get there to be honest. Sexton because I think, even when he wasn't injured this year, Farrell and maybe Ford were still performing better. And that's assuming he got back to full form.