The Lions squad for 2021 prediction

[big ginger 8]

I'd have said Owens and LCD are nailed on. It's really hard to tell how much credit in the bank George will have. I really do think Kelleher could be a bolter. He's a better athlete than every option except maybe LCD, his forwards coach is the Lions forwards coach and he'll have had a few big games in the shop window now.

 

[BPM]

That's a big call. TBH, it's hard to really judge George's form. I don't think he was outright poor, just a good bit off his best.

IMO, Owens and George offer experience and reliability and will compete to start while LCD and Kelleher offer more impact so are better bench options.

 

[big ginger 8]

That's a big call. TBH, it's hard to really judge George's form. I don't think he was outright poor, just a good bit off his best.

IMO, Owens and George offer experience and reliability and will compete to start while LCD and Kelleher offer more impact so are better bench options.

It is that's why he's very much a bolter for me. Definitely nowhere near a cert. If Gatland thinks he can get performances out of George's usual level he'll absolutely go ahead of him but I do there's a good chance Kelleher isn't as far down after those three as a lot of people think.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Kelleher is a great player imo. I actually think we're strong at Hooker. George was rightly touted as one of the best hookers in the world a couple of years ago. You don't turn **** over night. LCD has impressed me every time I've watched him for club or country and form wise is arguably the best out of the bunch. And Ken Owens is Ken Owens. He's a solid player in decent form.

 

[Welsh Exile]

James Haskells 15 is interesting.

1. Mako
2. Turner
3. Furlong
4. Itoje
5.AWJ
6.Tipuric
7. Curry
8. Faletau
9.Davies
10. Biggar
11. Watson
12. Henshaw
13. J.Davies
14. LRZ
15. Hogg

Bench: Genge, LCD, Sinkler, Lawes, Underhill, Price, Farrell, Liam Williams.

 

[Owen#2]

Ken should definitely be a starter. Good solid hooker that's consistent. LCD off the bench would make more of an impact than George. Personally, I rate George very highly but lack of game time and form makes him a bad choice for the lions, but Gatland will probably not just pick on form but potential form, which is a shame in my opinion

 

[Owen#2]

James Haskells 15 is interesting.

1. Mako
2. Turner
3. Furlong
4. Itoje
5.AWJ
6.Tipuric
7. Curry
8. Faletau
9.Davies
10. Biggar
11. Watson
12. Henshaw
13. J.Davies
14. LRZ
15. Hogg

Bench: Genge, LCD, Sinkler, Lawes, Underhill, Price, Farrell, Liam Williams.

Looks potentially a good test side, but for me I'd have Owens at 2 Navidi at 6 Danny Care at 9 and would prefer Daily or slade at 13

 

[Welsh Exile]

Looks potentially a good test side, but for me I'd have Owens at 2 Navidi at 6 Danny Care at 9 and would prefer Daily or slade at 13

Yeah Turner is a bit left field.

Both Davies' would worry me to be honest. Johnathan looks past his best it has to be said and Gareth is inconsistent and not in good form. You can say the same for Mako too. Beirne has to start for me, though, whether that's lock or 6. Feel like Navidi doesn't get many mentions at all which is understandable when the back row is so competitive but still, he's class.

If Mako and the Davies' could muster up some form from years gone by then that team could win but it's to big of an if for me.

 

[Owen#2]

Yeah Turner is a bit left field.

Both Davies' would worry me to be honest. Johnathan looks past his best it has to be said and Gareth is inconsistent and not in good form. You can say the same for Mako too. Beirne has to start for me, though, whether that's lock or 6. Feel like Navidi doesn't get many mentions at all which is understandable when the back row is so competitive but still, he's class.

If Mako and the Davies' could muster up some form from years gone by then that team could win but it's to big of an if for me.

Definitely agree with you there, an on form Davies would be amazing but I think those days have gone to be honest. Mako hasn't been playing all to great this season and I would love to see Marler get a call. He has been on fire for the Quinn's this season and the best loose head in the prem. Itoje is class but I feel he will be a liability with his penalties and as explosive a player Genge is, he will be targeted by the boks cause he is another one that's ill disciplined and could cost the lions

 

[BPM]

I agree with pretty much all of Welsh Exile's post too.

Beirne would be in my side (most likely at 6). Navidi is underrated and if the squad is smaller than usual, a player that can cover 6, 7 and 8 (at a push), would be useful.

Going back to the hooker spots, I think it's worth considering that these are going to be tough, tight games. LCD or Kelleher are great for impact in theory, but imagine it's the third test and it's one win each, it's the 79th minute, we're 6 points down and we have a lineout 5m out. Who do you want making that throw? I can tell you now, I wouldn't choose LCD or Kelleher ...

For that reason, I'd be happy for Owens to start with George on the bench.

 

[BPM]

As covered earlier in the thread the idea that Itoje is a 'liability' seems to be mostly based upon 1 6N game ... massively overblown and not really accurate.

If Marler is open to touring I wouldn't just pick him, I'd be starting him (obviously), but TBH, I very much doubt he will put himself up for it. He has a hard time leaving his young family and going to SA for weeks is going to be too much I think ...

 

[Owen#2]

As covered earlier in the thread the idea that Itoje is a 'liability' seems to be mostly based upon 1 6N game ... massively overblown and not really accurate.

If Marler is open to touring I wouldn't just pick him, I'd be starting him (obviously), but TBH, I very much doubt he will put himself up for it. He has a hard time leaving his young family and going to SA for weeks is going to be too much I think ...

That's a fair point on Itoje I admit, my main concern with him is at the breakdown. He plays so close to the edge of the law, I feel the Boks will be able to take advantage of this, whereas someone like Beirne seems to be able to do the same but not put himself in a position to get penalised in the same way.

 

[Owen#2]

Just another point for the thread, I would love to see Smith get a lions call, even if only as a midweek player. God knows England are wasting his talents by not picking him. It's great that he has extended his stay at quins, and with Danny at 9, they have a great combo there.

 

[BPM]

I guess it depends how we want our pack to set up. On the one hand we want to try to match the Boks power game, but on the other I'm not wholly convinced that's playing to our strengths.

I keep changing my mind on certain positions, but I'm pretty set on my forwards:

1. Marler*
2. Owens
3. Furlong
4. Itoje
5. Henderson
6. Beirne
7. Curry
8. Faletau

16. George
17. Jones
18. Sinckler
19. Ryan
20. Tipuric

*If Marler isn't up for touring, I'd promote Jones to the starting lineup and bring Sutherland on to the bench.

The main debate for me would be whether to go with Sinckler or Porter on the bench. Two great, but very different options.

 

[BPM]

Just another point for the thread, I would love to see Smith get a lions call, even if only as a midweek player. God knows England are wasting his talents by not picking him. It's great that he has extended his stay at quins, and with Danny at 9, they have a great combo there.

The rumour is it's only going to be 36 players. In a squad that small, anyone who is picked needs to be ready to start a test if necessary. I'm a big fan of Marcus but he's not there yet.

 

[big ginger 8]

Going back to the hooker spots, I think it's worth considering that these are going to be tough, tight games. LCD or Kelleher are great for impact in theory, but imagine it's the third test and it's one win each, it's the 79th minute, we're 6 points down and we have a lineout 5m out. Who do you want making that throw? I can tell you now, I wouldn't choose LCD or Kelleher ...

For that reason, I'd be happy for Owens to start with George on the bench.

You're certainly not alone in that way of thinking, a lot of fans, pundits and coaches (including possibly Gatland) would agree with you. A year or so ago I probably would have said the same. However I'm becoming more convinced it's not a fair hypothetical and largely a matter of perception rather than anything based off evidence.

100% 89.3% 88.2%

Couldn't find the fourth one but that's the throwing percentage from the six nations for three of the hookers. LCD, Owens and Kelleher. Based off that you'd definitely want LCD throwing into that 79th minute lineout. Kelleher lost one lineout in the ******* rain against a Munster team with two of the best defensive jumpers around and another two 6'6" plus guys. He lost no lineouts against Exeter. Those are his last two starts one a final and the other a QF.

Besides there's so many moving parts in a lineout the focus we tend to put on hookers is unfair. Sure some of them are just plain **** throwers but a lot of them are around the same level. Sometimes a guy just gets into a groove or the overall lineout has really good chemistry. This has been very apparent as a Leinster fan this season. Guys swap in or out so much that all of our hookers have struggled at some stage but once there's any consistency in selection things massively improve.

Besides who's to say it'll be a last minute lineout. The way rugby has changed recently it could just as easily be a last minute 5m tap and go by the hooker, where LCD and Kelleher are definitely better options.

I have no real issue with Owens and/or George going but I just feel the last minute lineout is a very narrow focus that's based on perceptions that aren't necessarily backed up by anything.

 

[munstermuffin]

You're certainly not alone in that way of thinking, a lot of fans, pundits and coaches (including possibly Gatland) would agree with you. A year or so ago I probably would have said the same. However I'm becoming more convinced it's not a fair hypothetical and largely a matter of perception rather than anything based off evidence.

100% 89.3% 88.2%

Couldn't find the fourth one but that's the throwing percentage from the six nations for three of the hookers. LCD, Owens and Kelleher. Based off that you'd definitely want LCD throwing into that 79th minute lineout. Kelleher lost one lineout in the ******* rain against a Munster team with two of the best defensive jumpers around and another two 6'6" plus guys. He lost no lineouts against Exeter. Those are his last two starts one a final and the other a QF.

Besides there's so many moving parts in a lineout the focus we tend to put on hookers is unfair. Sure some of them are just plain **** throwers but a lot of them are around the same level. Sometimes a guy just gets into a groove or the overall lineout has really good chemistry. This has been very apparent as a Leinster fan this season. Guys swap in or out so much that all of our hookers have struggled at some stage but once there's any consistency in selection things massively improve.

Besides who's to say it'll be a last minute lineout. The way rugby has changed recently it could just as easily be a last minute 5m tap and go by the hooker, where LCD and Kelleher are definitely better options.

I have no real issue with Owens and/or George going but I just feel the last minute lineout is a very narrow focus that's based on perceptions that aren't necessarily backed up by anything.

I'm a big fan of Kelleher but the fact he couldn't break in and own the 2 jersey for Ireland will cause him issues. Yes his stats as you mentioned for last few games are good BUT overall his darts are poor. Now that isn't saying the others darts are better but I just feel his lack of progress in green makes the road that bit harder.

 

[big ginger 8]

I'm a big fan of Kelleher but the fact he couldn't break in and own the 2 jersey for Ireland will cause him issues. Yes his stats as you mentioned for last few games are good BUT overall his darts are poor. Now that isn't saying the others darts are better but I just feel his lack of progress in green makes the road that bit harder.

Before McBryde was named as forwards coach I'd agree his not being the Irish starter would work against him. But now there is that advocate is in the coaching room. He also has the rare opportunity of three first class games in the shop window before the squad is announced. Still firmly in the bolter territory as I said.

For a man who loves saying the stats back stuff up it's a bit strange that you're dismissing his stats based on perception. It seems when a young dynamic hooker bursts through the automatic presumption is that they can't throw similar with attacking 10s and kicking or tackling. There's also of course the possibility that as a young player he's actually improved.

When he first broke through his darts were pretty good. Then he came back with his hand still broken and started having problems more consistently. This stopped him being a consistent starter and being able to develop the chemistry and confidence that he has recently. He's throwing with very good zip recently and isn't being thrown off by crowding the front like he was even at the start of the 6N. He's not Flannery but he's also not a situation where his throwing should see him automatically discarded.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

looking at most people squads who is going to kick spiral bombs?

 

[TRF_Olyy]

North confirmed out