The Lions squad for 2021 prediction

[Welsh Exile]

Gutted for him. Has been in really good form and was nailed on to start imo.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

James Haskells 15 is interesting.

1. Mako
2. Turner
3. Furlong
4. Itoje
5.AWJ
6.Tipuric
7. Curry
8. Faletau
9.Davies
10. Biggar
11. Watson
12. Henshaw
13. J.Davies
14. LRZ
15. Hogg

Bench: Genge, LCD, Sinkler, Lawes, Underhill, Price, Farrell, Liam Williams.

When I saw '1. Mako', I stopped reading.

Horrible news for North, but if there is a silver lining at least it's not another concussion. I'd have had him as a starter.

 

[munstermuffin]

Before McBryde was named as forwards coach I'd agree his not being the Irish starter would work against him. But now there is that advocate is in the coaching room. He also has the rare opportunity of three first class games in the shop window before the squad is announced. Still firmly in the bolter territory as I said.

For a man who loves saying the stats back stuff up it's a bit strange that you're dismissing his stats based on perception. It seems when a young dynamic hooker bursts through the automatic presumption is that they can't throw similar with attacking 10s and kicking or tackling. There's also of course the possibility that as a young player he's actually improved.

When he first broke through his darts were pretty good. Then he came back with his hand still broken and started having problems more consistently. This stopped him being a consistent starter and being able to develop the chemistry and confidence that he has recently. He's throwing with very good zip recently and isn't being thrown off by crowding the front like he was even at the start of the 6N. He's not Flannery but he's also not a situation where his throwing should see him automatically discarded.

3??? It is next Tuesday so really 1. And alot is pinned on McBryde fighting for him. But remember McBryde is Welsh and will know Welsh lads too and may actually be weary to not wanting to appear bias.

I'm not saying he isn't good enough or that his darts alone will prevent him. The Pro14 isn't viewed very highly and Kelleher ddn't really tear up impression in 6Nations so it is effectively really a very steep uphill battle.
And if Gatland goes with his type Kelleher will miss out. And I'm not basing that on his throw being a yip more his throw is not like Flannery and he probably needs something to really separate himself from rest to stand out.
I haven't once said he is not good enough or has poor stats. You based his stats on 2 or 3 games. I based it on the season as a whole.
But I'd ask does he massively stand out on his throwing over the other contenders who made serious impacts on national team,and if so why didn't he oust Herring.
I'm just painting the picture of how a coach will look at it.

Just on his stats at lineout he has an 84% record this season (excluding RC which he has not played in) at the lineout. That is from 14 appearances (7 Starts and 7 off the bench) and 1 try in 558mins.
For Ireland he has an 86% success at lineout in 8 games (3 as a starter) and 250 mins. 1 Try.

 

[BPM]

Yep. This is pretty much my thinking.

For me, it's Owens or George with LCD and Kelleher fighting it out for the third spot.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Absolutely no question in my mind that LCD is better than Kelleher. The only thing I could see swaying it is if they are worried about taking 2 Hks from an out of form team

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Owens would be solid if unspectacular. There are worse traits against the Boks.

A fully firing George would definitely travel and probably be first choice. But he was undercooked in the 6N and will only have played Championship rugby since. LCD took the Eng starting shirt on merit and his more rambunctious style may count in his favour. If one English 2 is taken it should be LCD, but might all boil down to how his darts are viewed - hopefully based on more recent fact than historic reputation.

Haven't really seen enough of Kelleher to comment but there are more experienced options ahead of him.

 

[munstermuffin]

Just on an off point. Strong hints are:

1. A Squad of 36
2. A Reserve squad of 15
3. Itoje or AWJ is set to captain
4. 57 players received letters to confirm they are happy to go in to a bubble for 7 weeks.
5. 6 Non International players are said to be on the list.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I don't think Kelleher really deserves to go, it'd be based off bench appearances and club games so definitely not enough to be ahead of incumbents. Equally I don't think LCD massively grabbed it there's just a lack of options, I thought he faded pretty badly throughout the 6n after a strong start and then had another bad go of it against Leinster.

LCD is the safe third choice [if you think George will be fit], Kelleher has the higher ceiling even within the next few months and not by a short amount. Personally I'd rather LCD go, don't think a tour with no test match exposure would do Kelleher much good. Farrell definitely had it very wrong picking Herring to this point though.

 

[BPM]

Just on an off point. Strong hints are:

1. A Squad of 36
2. A Reserve squad of 15
3. Itoje or AWJ is set to captain
4. 57 players received letters to confirm they are happy to go in to a bubble for 7 weeks.
5. 6 Non International players are said to be on the list.

Probably pure speculation, but the rumours I've seen on the 'non internationals' so far are:

Sam Simmonds
Danny Care
Rhys Webb
Hadleigh Parkes (!!!!)

Not sure how Marler is categorised? He didn't join up with England for the 6N, but he's not what I'd class as a 'non international' given he was actually selected but withdrew.

 

[Welsh Exile]

I've heard people say we should take Marler for the bants alone and while I thought what a stupid point to make actually on second thoughts, what with the whole lockdown/closed tour thing, it's actually pretty important to have some "characters".

Marler is a decent player as well to be fair and he can link up with his tour buddy, AWJ again. Maybe a midnight fondle or 2 is on the cards.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I've heard people say we should take Marler for the bants alone and while I thought what a stupid point to make actually on second thoughts, what with the whole lockdown/closed tour thing, it's actually pretty important to have some "characters".

That depends if players actually like Marler's bants! Seems like a small doses type of thing for me

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

I've heard people say we should take Marler for the bants alone and while I thought what a stupid point to make actually on second thoughts, what with the whole lockdown/closed tour thing, it's actually pretty important to have some "characters".

Marler is a decent player as well to be fair and he can link up with his tour buddy, AWJ again. Maybe a midnight fondle or 2 is on the cards.

To be fair he should also be England's 1 loosehead on merit at the moment and thus should have a good shout going regardless.

Been far and away the best LH in the prem all year imo.

Have a feeling he would turn down a callup though

 

[big ginger 8]

So to reiterate I have Owens and LCD nailed on and am firmly discussing Kelleher as an outside option. I won't be surprised in the slightest if George is the third hooker but do think could and should be viewed ahead of the likes of Herring and Turner in the Lions context.

3??? It is next Tuesday so really 1. And alot is pinned on McBryde fighting for him. But remember McBryde is Welsh and will know Welsh lads too and may actually be weary to not wanting to appear bias.

You don't consider a final vs Munster as a big game? Sure standard Pro14 games are pretty irrelevant but a fully locked and loaded interprovincial final still has some status. Also a game where he had more metres than any Munster forward and was third most on the Leinster team with half the carries of the two ahead of him. I admit the La Rochelle game is probably too close to the announcement but it is those late performances that have on occasion swayed coaches on a third choice position.

Owens is definitely going, what other Welsh guys are you realistically expecting Mcbryde to argue for? Why would he not want to show bias on internal coaching discussions?

I'm not saying he isn't good enough or that his darts alone will prevent him. The Pro14 isn't viewed very highly and Kelleher ddn't really tear up impression in 6Nations so it is effectively really a very steep uphill battle.
And if Gatland goes with his type Kelleher will miss out. And I'm not basing that on his throw being a yip more his throw is not like Flannery and he probably needs something to really separate himself from rest to stand out.
I haven't once said he is not good enough or has poor stats. You based his stats on 2 or 3 games. I based it on the season as a whole.
But I'd ask does he massively stand out on his throwing over the other contenders who made serious impacts on national team,and if so why didn't he oust Herring.
I'm just painting the picture of how a coach will look at it.

Just on his stats at lineout he has an 84% record this season (excluding RC which he has not played in) at the lineout. That is from 14 appearances (7 Starts and 7 off the bench) and 1 try in 558mins.
For Ireland he has an 86% success at lineout in 8 games (3 as a starter) and 250 mins. 1 Try.

I didn't base his stats on two or three games though? I gave his throwing stats from the 6N (88.2%) and said he'd lost one lineout in the games since. That's 7 games. Not the largest sample ever but a lot better than 2 games and more relevant than a Pro14 game where he's still got a recovering broken hand and throwing to the latest random combination.

It's hard to make out but if you're asking what he has to standout vs his contenders outside of his throwing it's pretty obvious. LCD is the only one who's a similar level athlete. He's regularly top three in metres and tackles made and is a turnover threat. Anyone who watches him also knows the power he brings like running over AWJ or dumping Billy Vunipola, that's his point of difference. Is it enough? Maybe not but it is there.

There's a few reasons it appears Herring was favoured over Kelleher. The throwing definitely was one but as they ended up having a one percent difference in their completion percentage you wonder how fair that was, they also liked having someone in Herring who would focus on hitting rucks and saw Kelleher more as an impact option. They were obviously happy with him there as he kept coming on earlier each game. Kelleher has also either been injured or just back from injury before the last few international windows. Again not saying he's already sitting on the plane but it's not as outside the realms of possibility as some suggest or at least shouldn't be.

Absolutely no question in my mind that LCD is better than Kelleher.

Don't think anyone has suggested otherwise?

 

[TRF_Olyy]

To be fair he should also be England's 1 loosehead on merit at the moment and thus should have a good shout going regardless.

Been far and away the best LH in the prem all year imo.

Have a feeling he would turn down a callup though

Yeah, if he went he'd be the best scrummaging loosehead on the tour - suggesting he'd only go because he's a giggle is ridiculous

I think the chances of him making himself available are very slim, though - he did for the RWC, so it's not a zero percent chance, but I can't see it happening

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Yeah, if he went he'd be the best scrummaging loosehead on the tour - suggesting he'd only go because he's a giggle is ridiculous

I think the chances of him making himself available are very slim, though - he did for the RWC, so it's not a zero percent chance, but I can't see it happening

Or maybe he took the view that either the 6N or Lions was manageable but not both. If that was the choice I know which I'd take.

And after lockdown maybe his family have seen enough of him for a while....

I hope he goes. I'd start him.

 

[BPM]

True. I imagine he was looking at the RWC and is looking at the Lions in a similar way. The 6N happens every year. This would be his last chance of a Lions tour.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Yeah, if he went he'd be the best scrummaging loosehead on the tour - suggesting he'd only go because he's a giggle is ridiculous

I think the chances of him making himself available are very slim, though - he did for the RWC, so it's not a zero percent chance, but I can't see it happening

For the record, I'm not saying if he did go it would only be for the bants just that I've heard someone say on some pod that he should even if was just for the fact that he's a character and that's important on tour. It was probably a bit tongue in cheek to be fair but at the same time you don't want 36 introverts on tour.

 

[Welsh Exile]

To be fair he should also be England's 1 loosehead on merit at the moment and thus should have a good shout going regardless.

Been far and away the best LH in the prem all year imo.

Have a feeling he would turn down a callup though

Yeah, personally I wouldn't be throwing my toys out if he got selected as he's a very good international player but I do disagree with Gats in that I think you should be playing first choice for your country really. I think exceptions can be made for special talents but I wouldn't put Marler in that bracket tbh. Underhill I definitely would and hope an exception is made for him but not obviously at the expense of Tipuric. Lol.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Yeah, personally I wouldn't be throwing my toys out if he got selected as he's a very good international player but I do disagree with Gats in that I think you should be playing first choice for your country really. I think exceptions can be made for special talents but I wouldn't put Marler in that bracket tbh. Underhill I definitely would and hope an exception is made for him but not obviously at the expense of Tipuric. Lol.

I understand that in theory but Marler has been england's 1 number 1 not irregularly and likely would have been if he hadn't withdrew for the 6N?

The choice for Mako is largely a style one / not one based on form I think.

In the front row, where realistically you are playing just over half a game, I don't think the gulf between starter and bench is that huge - hell, in the Top14, you see the "first choice" front row come on at 30 minutes sometimes now

 

[Welsh Exile]

I understand that in theory but Marler has been england's 1 number 1 not irregularly and likely would have been if he hadn't withdrew for the 6N?

The choice for Mako is largely a style one / not one based on form I think.

In the front row, where realistically you are playing just over half a game, I don't think the gulf between starter and bench is that huge - hell, in the Top14, you see the "first choice" front row come on at 30 minutes sometimes now

I agree but I suppose what I'm really saying is you need to be playing some international rugby for a lions spot, at the end of the day. If you've been injured (Underhill) and, more importantly are a special talent (Underhill) then you can make an exception.

Marler isn't injured and isn't a special talent imo. So for him to get a Lions spot, for me, he'd have to be playing recently, and regularly, for England either as a starter or on the bench.

It's all moot anyway as Gatland obviously totally disagrees and he might know a thing or 2 more than me