The Lions squad for 2021 prediction

[munstermuffin]

So to reiterate I have Owens and LCD nailed on and am firmly discussing Kelleher as an outside option. I won't be surprised in the slightest if George is the third hooker but do think could and should be viewed ahead of the likes of Herring and Turner in the Lions context.



You don't consider a final vs Munster as a big game? Sure standard Pro14 games are pretty irrelevant but a fully locked and loaded interprovincial final still has some status. Also a game where he had more metres than any Munster forward and was third most on the Leinster team with half the carries of the two ahead of him. I admit the La Rochelle game is probably too close to the announcement but it is those late performances that have on occasion swayed coaches on a third choice position.

Owens is definitely going, what other Welsh guys are you realistically expecting Mcbryde to argue for? Why would he not want to show bias on internal coaching discussions?



I didn't base his stats on two or three games though? I gave his throwing stats from the 6N (88.2%) and said he'd lost one lineout in the games since. That's 7 games. Not the largest sample ever but a lot better than 2 games and more relevant than a Pro14 game where he's still got a recovering broken hand and throwing to the latest random combination.

It's hard to make out but if you're asking what he has to standout vs his contenders outside of his throwing it's pretty obvious. LCD is the only one who's a similar level athlete. He's regularly top three in metres and tackles made and is a turnover threat. Anyone who watches him also knows the power he brings like running over AWJ or dumping Billy Vunipola, that's his point of difference. Is it enough? Maybe not but it is there.

There's a few reasons it appears Herring was favoured over Kelleher. The throwing definitely was one but as they ended up having a one percent difference in their completion percentage you wonder how fair that was, they also liked having someone in Herring who would focus on hitting rucks and saw Kelleher more as an impact option. They were obviously happy with him there as he kept coming on earlier each game. Kelleher has also either been injured or just back from injury before the last few international windows. Again not saying he's already sitting on the plane but it's not as outside the realms of possibility as some suggest or at least shouldn't be.



Don't think anyone has suggested otherwise?

On top bit I do consider it a big game but the selectors (Gatland especially) has said the level leaves alot to be desired.

On McBryde - If he had a choice of all hookers to work with that are Lions Qualified would he be picking Kelleher. We will soon see. Remember he hasn't worked too much with Kelleher either. The 6Nations and Irish stats are flawed in fact he had so little minutes though. Even you'd agree 250mins over 8 games is poor amount to show. (Not saying that is all down to form.) But of that 250mins. Wales and England games in Autumn were desperate showings at lineout time from Ireland. Not all RK fault. And Italy he played majority so that is 180mins there that were not helpful. So that limits it down to hoping the other 70mins in green spread across 5 caps and 3 European games will really hammer it home. And my point on this is because he is a bolter he can't just be matching the others at the moment he needs to be 10-15% more than them on form. That is why I think it is very unlikely. If he went I wouldn't say he's a weak link or anything like that. Just pointing out what is required.
Graham Rowntree pointed it out on coaching staff that coaches look at players they can work with that they don't usually which is why I'm unsure McBryde will go head on in for him. Maybe he will.

 

[Jakedood]

I agree but I suppose what I'm really saying is you need to be playing some international rugby for a lions spot, at the end of the day. If you've been injured (Underhill) and, more importantly are a special talent (Underhill) then you can make an exception.

Marler isn't injured and isn't a special talent imo. So for him to get a Lions spot, for me, he'd have to be playing recently, and regularly, for England either as a starter or on the bench.

It's all moot anyway as Gatland obviously totally disagrees and he might know a thing or 2 more than me

He was playing as recently as the ANC wasnt he?
In good form, and arguably (i say arguably, though I'd be fairly confident in this) he's the best scrummaging loosehead in B&I, and is a very shrewd reader of the game defensively. Given none of the prop options are great ball in hand barr Mako, who's likely gonna repeat 2019 WC final if selected, I wouldnt be surprised if he went, provided he wanted to go, and if he did go, he'd probably be first choice

Edit: He's also a vastly experienced international player. I know his disciplinary record hasnt always shone, but he's not likely to lose his marbles if **** hits the fan. Dunno about Sutherland in this regard as still relatively new on the scene, and Wyn Jones has 35 apps I think for Wales? Also would regard him as a solid if unspectacular prop, whereas Marler for me makes telling contributions in both scrum and defense. The others likely wont let you down, but of the 3 he would be a little ahead in my mind

 

[Welsh Exile]

He was playing as recently as the ANC wasnt he?
In good form, and arguably (i say arguably, though I'd be fairly confident in this) he's the best scrummaging loosehead in B&I, and is a very shrewd reader of the game defensively. Given none of the prop options are great ball in hand barr Mako, who's likely gonna repeat 2019 WC final if selected, I wouldnt be surprised if he went, provided he wanted to go, and if he did go, he'd probably be first choice

Edit: He's also a vastly experienced international player. I know his disciplinary record hasnt always shone, but he's not likely to lose his marbles if **** hits the fan. Dunno about Sutherland in this regard as still relatively new on the scene, and Wyn Jones has 35 apps I think for Wales? Also would regard him as a solid if unspectacular prop, whereas Marler for me makes telling contributions in both scrum and defense. The others likely wont let you down, but of the 3 he would be a little ahead in my mind

Yeah, fair enough. You clearly rate Marler a bit more than me though there probably isn't much in it.

The ANC wasn't recent enough for me. I think we should be capitalising as much as we can on the one clear advantage we have over SA in that we have played lots of international rugby recently and they haven't. Picking players who are internationally undercooked levels the playing field a bit. I guess it's not so important when it's only 1 or 2 players and like I say I wouldn't lose my **** if Marler goes I just want battle hardened players on tour ideally.

I'm sure Gatland will say it's about who he thinks are the best players to do a job and everything else is secondary which is fair enough.

 

[Owen#2]

Gatland is thinking about taking some non international players. Didn't the Lions used to have a tradition when they would take an uncapped player on tour?

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Yeah, fair enough. You clearly rate Marler a bit more than me though there probably isn't much in it.

The ANC wasn't recent enough for me. I think we should be capitalising as much as we can on the one clear advantage we have over SA in that we have played lots of international rugby recently and they haven't. Picking players who are internationally undercooked levels the playing field a bit. I guess it's not so important when it's only 1 or 2 players and like I say I wouldn't lose my **** if Marler goes I just want battle hardened players on tour ideally.

I'm sure Gatland will say it's about who he thinks are the best players to do a job and everything else is secondary which is fair enough.

Marler's been playing regular GP rugby, is on form and has 70 caps of experience to fall back on

There's also 4 months between the end of the 6N and the tests so recent internationals isn't really that relevant.

Plus he won't have been contaminated by Eng's feeble 6N. I'd say that was a big tick in his favour!

 

[Owen#2]

Marler's been playing regular GP rugby, is on form and has 70 caps of experience to fall back on

There's also 4 months between the end of the 6N and the tests so recent internationals isn't really that relevant.

Plus he won't have been contaminated by Eng's feeble 6N. I'd say that was a big tick in his favour!

Marler would be my first choice. HE has been on fire for Quins this season. His tackle technique is on point. He's tried and tested internationally and like you say, hasn't been exposed the the England camp and is on form. ( funnily enough, Danny Care is also on form and would be my first choice 9 and he hasn't been exposed to the England camp too. Just saying

 

[Welsh Exile]

Marler's been playing regular GP rugby, is on form and has 70 caps of experience to fall back on

There's also 4 months between the end of the 6N and the tests so recent internationals isn't really that relevant.

Plus he won't have been contaminated by Eng's feeble 6N. I'd say that was a big tick in his favour!

Fair points. I won't be surprised if he goes but if it was down to me I probably wouldn't.

 

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

I could see Marler going but not care. Marler should be first choice LH really. I still don't know how I'd have my pack.

Stuck between

Ryan & Itoje
Bearnie curray
Falateu

Then Watson, Stander (although he'd be a good bench option) and Navidi is a solid replacement and can cover 6,7,8 but is missing the X factor to make him a starter.

But I also want Grey involved. But there isn't enough space for them all!

Marler Owens Furlough
Grey Itoje
Bearnie Curray
Falateu

Thats my pack I think....maybe...I don't know.

 

[Welsh Exile]

What are peoples thoughts on who they'd have as your 3 bench options for the backs? (Assuming we're not going to do a 6-2 split)

With North out Farrell definitely comes in handy as he can cover 12. Josh Adams would be a useful bench player as he can cover 13 and 15 as well as the wings obviously. Has Watson ever played center? Can he do a job there? I'd like to have Russell on the bench as a bit of a game changer to bring on but practically, if he's not starting, Farells versatility might come in handy.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Probably be Farrell and Sanjay

My guess at the backline they'll pick is:
Murray, Biggar,
van der Merwe, Henshaw, Harris, Watson,
Hogg

Davies, Farrell, Williams

Equally, though, I wouldn't be overly surprised at a Farrell/Henshaw midfield

 

[RedruthRFC]

Gatland is thinking about taking some non international players. Didn't the Lions used to have a tradition when they would take an uncapped player on tour?

Are you confusing them with the BaaBaas who always pick an uncapped player? I read the other day that the last uncapped tourist was Greenwood in 1997 (not a bad decision). I can imagine that it was more commonplace longer ago just because selection was all over the place, but I've never heard of it being a tradition.

 

[Yulia]

For the record, I'm not saying if he did go it would only be for the bants just that I've heard someone say on some pod that he should even if was just for the fact that he's a character and that's important on tour. It was probably a bit tongue in cheek to be fair but at the same time you don't want 36 introverts on tour.

I agree. It's interesting to look not only on good players, but on characters. Plus he's really funny I'd take him and AWG

 

[Welsh Exile]

I would quite like to see this team

1. Sutherland
2. LCD
3. Furlong
4. Ryan
5. Henderson
6. Beirne
7. Watson
8. Faletau
9. Williams
10. Biggar
11. Watson
12. Henshaw
13. Tualagi
14. LRZ
15. Hogg

Bench: Mako, George, Sinkler, Itoje, Tipuric, Price, Russell, Adams

 

[Dean Cooperfield-West]

I would quite like to see this team

1. Sutherland
2. LCD
3. Furlong
4. Ryan
5. Henderson
6. Beirne
7. Watson
8. Faletau
9. Williams
10. Biggar
11. Watson
12. Henshaw
13. Tualagi
14. LRZ
15. Hogg

Bench: Mako, George, Sinkler, Itoje, Tipuric, Price, Russell, Adams

Tipuric not in the XV? Are you feeling okay?

Seriously though that's not a bad team but who helps LRZ defend? He needs a ROG-style babysitter.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Tipuric not in the XV? Are you feeling okay?

Seriously though that's not a bad team but who helps LRZ defend? He needs a ROG-style babysitter.

To be honest it's kind of ridiculous Curry, Underhill and Stander (all world class players for me) aren't even on the bench but this is the thing with the lions you can make loads of good teams.

Personally I like the lions but it's more the spectacle and the whole super team thing. I don't really get emotionally invested in it. I want them to win and it's nice if they do but I don't really care if players I really rate are left out or gutted if the lions lose.

 

[Welsh Exile]

LRZ would be a concern I suppose but I don't think his defence was that bad. He would be up against Mapimpi not Kolbe. Reckon he'd be alright. Either way it'd be an interesting backline to watch.

 

[Jakedood]

Tipuric not in the XV? Are you feeling okay?

Seriously though that's not a bad team but who helps LRZ defend? He needs a ROG-style babysitter.

He's not that and defensively, and pace can also help you cover if you are slightly out of position, he has that in spades...

@Welsh Exile the fact you have watson as first choice I'm taking as a win. I have convinced you of the way. Tipuric may not lick his holy toes. And you obviously agree

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I think it's worth pointing out that at the world cup our scrum was being beasted by SA. That stopped the instant Marler came on and in fact we then got a penalty ourselves. If one of your worries is scrummaging, Marler showed he could come into a well beaten scrum against a side full of beans and still win.

 

[Welsh Exile]

I think it's worth pointing out that at the world cup our scrum was being beasted by SA. That stopped the instant Marler came on and in fact we then got a penalty ourselves. If one of your worries is scrummaging, Marler showed he could come into a well beaten scrum against a side full of beans and still win.

I can't really remember how our scrum got on against SA but I remember Wyn Jones doing a good job (he did well in the 6N) Francis is our best scrummaging tight head as well but he went off injured in that semi final. Maybe our scrum went a bit **** after that but I seem to remember it doing well.

Understandably the English fans are a lot more wary of SA than the Welsh are. I know we narrowly lost our last encounter but prior to that our record was good against them. Tbf, so was England prior to that final.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Actually just looking at the last 5 years England's record against SA wasn't great but not terrible either but understandably England might **** the bed a little when they think of SA.