Scotland vs Italy, 09/02/13

[TRF_Olyy]

Murrayfield, Scotland
14:30, 09/02/13
​

 

[Big Ewis]

I'd imagine an Italian victory, I think 90% of ppl do...not very original of a prediction.
But besides the momentum of their impressive victory at home, and that they want to prove they can win away too, they've got elements of good consistency. Orquera might go back to standard form, and the rest of the backs may suck again, and they may look a lot slower in execution; but they've still got the thing Scotland's mediocre at - the scrum and the forwards.
Italy will likely suffocate the Scottish wingers and attack generally with tight defense, win scrums and gain a lot off rucks, no need for a flashy display this time.

I really see Italy getting this one...say, Scotland 14 - 21 Italy ?

 

[psychic duck]

I'd imagine an Italian victory, I think 90% of ppl do...not very original of a prediction.
But besides the momentum of their impressive victory at home, and that they want to prove they can win away too, they've got elements of good consistency. Orquera might go back to standard form, and the rest of the backs may suck again, and they may look a lot slower in execution; but they've still got the thing Scotland's mediocre at - the scrum and the forwards.
Italy will likely suffocate the Scottish wingers and attack generally with tight defense, win scrums and gain a lot off rucks, no need for a flashy display this time.

I really see Italy getting this one...say, Scotland 14 - 21 Italy ?

Not really. Looking at the record, it would suggest that Scotland are most likely to win.

Italy have only ever one away game in the 6 Nations (courtesy of Phil Godman). And also if you look closely at Treviso's record, they routinely challenge the best in Europe at home giving hard matches to all of Leicester, Toulouse and Ospreys in the Heineken Cup. But all of them got a bonus point win when Treviso travelled. Italians don't tend to travel at all well away from home, the Italian franchises have just 5 away wins combined in the RaboPro12 (discounting away wins vs each other), and just one this season.

In fact I checked the stats, and this stat in particular speaks for itself. Italy have not come within 7 points of winning an away match in the 6 Nations for 5 years. (The last time was against Ireland in the opening round of the 2008 Six Nations losing 16-11)

Also since when did Scotland have a bad scrum? Tell me the match where Scotland have ever been dominated and leaked penalties there. Last time I checked Scotland got a match winning scrum penalty vs Australia in June, did well against the Pacific Islanders (better than the Adam Jones-less Wales side did), and were pushing for a penalty try late on in that Tonga match with a few scrum penalties on the Tongan line until the number 8 fumbled at the back. They also held their own against England as well. Yet people talk as if they were slaughtered in these matches.

They are by no means the best scrummagers or have the best pack and not as good as Italy's, but Ryan Grant and Euan Murray can hold their own normally, as could Chunk previously until he declined enormously this season, and I expect they will hold their own against Italy.

I'm not saying Italy can't win, but it's hardly a fait accompli just because they beat France.

 

[GarethEWilliams]

I may put a cheeky little £5 on the draw.

I think it will tighter than a (psychic) ducks arse.

 

[Big Ewis]

psychic duck:
oh wow, Scotland got a scrum penalty against Australia ?!! woooowwww !!! the achievement !!! :lol:
keep your pants on btw dude, just messin with ya, nothing mean goin on here...

I must admit they held their own against England last week in the scrum department, but I said Scotland was "mediocre" in the scrum and forward play, and yes, that's just how it is. Until proven wrong, that's what I've seen from them, and let this very thread's match prove exactly that: unfortunately for Scotland, whose entire strength relies on charge-downs and speed of their two wingers, some ok attack overall at times; Italy have a scrum mastodon, a powerful forward play...

I see Italy's physicality alone, regardless of a potential particularly good performance, giving them enough of an advantage to take this one. I don't think Italy will play as well as their first match. They'll play a decent match, with some silly mistakes; but will edge Scotland by a good handful of points...

As for those stats:
well all that may be, but we're obviously witnessing a different Italy since November, aren't we....

 

[psychic duck]

psychic duck:
oh wow, Scotland got a scrum penalty against Australia ?!! woooowwww !!! the achievement !!! :lol:
keep your pants on btw dude, just messin with ya, nothing mean goin on here...

I must admit they held their own against England last week in the scrum department, but I said Scotland was "mediocre" in the scrum and forward play, and yes, that's just how it is. Until proven wrong, that's what I've seen from them, and let this very thread's match prove exactly that: unfortunately for Scotland, whose entire strength relies on charge-downs and speed of their two wingers, some ok attack overall at times; Italy have a scrum mastodon, a powerful forward play...

I see Italy's physicality alone, regardless of a potential particularly good performance, giving them enough of an advantage to take this one. I don't think Italy will play as well as their first match. They'll play a decent match, with some silly mistakes; but will edge Scotland by a good handful of points...

As for those stats:
well all that may be, but we're obviously witnessing a different Italy since November, aren't we....

I am still waiting for people to actually find a recent occasion where Scotland were taken apart in the forwards. Also when did Scotland win from a charge down. They hardly rely on it, and in fact I don't remember them getting one in recent memory, I doubt you even watch rugby properly you just look at scores and make opinions based on that. You certainly know nothing about Scotland. Italy will unlikely be able to win solely on their pack (provided Scotland don't lose their top props to injury).

Also it's too early to say it's a different Italy. They have played all their games at home since November. That's nothing to suggest they will start travelling well, in fact judging by Treviso's mere 1 win outside Italy this season, the odds are that they won't. And the fact Italy have never come within 7 points away from home in the 6 Nations these past 5 years does tell a story.

This will be a very tight match, which I would back Scotland to win tbh. Hardly a comfortable and predictable Italian win that you suggest.

 

[Dougydeluxe]

Scotland have a strong pack. Italy also has a strong packed.

Scotland's issues is that they still use a forward style game to often. They need to continue with the more open play. Also Scotland know they can win this game and need it if they want to build confidence for Wales.

Many of Scotland's weaknesses are now growing stronger. Our back three are only getting better in attack and Visser will improve his defense. Also our centres are improving a bit. Mostly Scott, who I think is playing better and better in a Scotland jersey.

This game will be close, but I think Italy will have a slow start give Scotland the point cushion they need to see out the game.

 

[Big Ewis]

psychic duck: lol yeh I do watch rugby hahaha...:lol:

No but all I meant was Scotland isn't exactly a great scrummaging force, we'll just have to see next weekend simply, but though they may hold their own and yes it's true they're not given enough credit for their forward work, I'll give you that; I would imagine based on what I've SEEN recently (all their November tests, except the SA one) and the England match, their strength truly is their speed and those two wingers (Visser and Maitland). Just like against Nz and England, they rely on opportunistic play: charge-downs, interceptions....etc....because they're not structured enough to supply constructed team try, not fast enough and accurate in execution, will mess up quick ball but yet do have strong potential with their backs.
Like last year against France in the 6N, they would look good on attack, stretch the field wide, good passing etc...but not have the speed. But then they have this really good talent at the wings.

That much is clear for me from what I've seen, but let me know if I'm wrong...I guess ?

My original input still stands. I do believe firmly that is what's going down next weekend, yes.

 

[big ginger 8]

Psychic Duck bit of topic but you know really Mike Ross having cramp should be added to that sig.

 

[psychic duck]

Just like against Nz and England, they rely on opportunistic play: charge-downs, interceptions....etc....because they're not structured enough to supply constructed team try, not fast enough and accurate in execution, will mess up quick ball but yet do have strong potential with their backs.

One intercept in those matches you refer to. Hardly "relying" on it. Also all you say about not being able to score structured team tries is true ... but it is also equally true about Italy.

Neither Italy or Scotland have great backs, especially in midfield in the 10-12-13 positions. Scotland in particular have never had any good centres for years, hence why Nick de Luca is nearing 40 caps, and no Scottish outside back has gone on a Lions tour since 1997. But then Italy's backs aren't that good either.

Orquera's performance against France was an exception to the normal performance of his career. Most of the time he wouldn't play like that and Italy would have lost that France game, whether he can repeat that performance will be a big indicator as to how the match goes.

The outside backs aren't great either for Italy, and I doubt there is any of them that other nations would be desperate to have. Benvenuti has potential, but has been really quiet on the international stage thus far.

Orquera is the key for me. He basically made Italy's win against France with creating two tries. But have we discovered a new Orquera now aged 30 years old? Or was it just a one off performance of his lifetime and he will revert back to the old Orquera? That is the big question.

You contradict yourself here ...

their strength truly is their speed and those two wingers.

they would look good on attack, stretch the field wide, good passing etc...but not have the speed.

 

[Big Ewis]

^ God why do I even bother with you :lol:

"Look here, you contradict yourself !! And here, you say this: FALSE !!!!"
relax God, can't imagine how you are in real life !!!

To clarify, since you willingly take things out of context for God knows why, this is clearly what I'm saying so even you may understand: SCOTLAND LACK GOOD ATTACK BUT THEY HAVE FAST WINGERS.

God's sssssssssssssssssssssssssake.....this guy's the biggest rugby geek I'll ever encounter in my life; I imagine you with glasses, a scarf around your neck at all times, studying physics, a life-time fan of Zelda and Star Wars...:lol:

TAKE IT EAAAAAAAAAAAASY BOY, nobody's contradicting themselves, take a pill, everything will be aaaaaaaaaaaaaaalright !

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

a life-time fan of Zelda and Star Wars...:lol:

you got a problem with that B)

 

[TRF_Cymro]

 

[Big Ewis]

ROFL :lol:

you got a problem with that

oh oh !....uhmm...no sir !!

 

[psychic duck]

To clarify, since you willingly take things out of context for God knows why, this is clearly what I'm saying so even you may understand: SCOTLAND LACK GOOD ATTACK BUT THEY HAVE FAST WINGERS.

You also said that Scotland lacked speed in the same post. Hence why you were contradicting yourself you moron.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

You also said that Scotland lacked speed in the same post. Hence why you were contradicting yourself you moron.

I'm sorry stop being so condescending. If you feel you've won an argument fair enough, but theres no need to drive it home like that

 

[Big Ewis]

I'm sorry stop being so condescending. If you feel you've won an argument fair enough, but theres no need to drive it home like that

dude, thanks but just...just....let him be.

He's the kind of guy who listens to a man make a speech in front of thousands and brutally interrupts him with no remorse to say " 'whom'....you made a grammatical mistake right there precisely 11min43 into your speech. You mean to say 'whom' ".

It's just about crystal clear by now exactly what I'm saying about the Scottish team (which btw is sensible) and he's still nitpicking, going to make a crazy 15min patch work of quotes from this or even other threads just to prove a point that is already expired by the time he's done making it, with the most pedantic, insignificant details on how and why you're wrong, entirely missing the greater point of a post.
And of course, while responding lightly with humor, I get called a "moron" at the end of all that. ME ! :lol:

psychic di...duck: you know I got a good rep. on that comment I made about you. I'm not the only one who realizes the kind of geek you are.

 

[psychic duck]

dude, thanks but just...just....let him be.

He's the kind of guy who listens to a man make a speech in front of thousands and brutally interrupts him with no remorse to say " 'whom'....you made a grammatical mistake right there precisely 11min43 into your speech. You mean to say 'whom' ".

It's just about crystal clear by now exactly what I'm saying about the Scottish team (which btw is sensible) and he's still nitpicking, going to make a crazy 15min patch work of quotes from this or even other threads just to prove a point that is already expired by the time he's done making it, with the most pedantic, insignificant details on how and why you're wrong, entirely missing the greater point of a post.
And of course, while responding lightly with humor, I get called a "moron" at the end of all that. ME ! :lol:

psychic di...duck: you know I got a good rep. on that comment I made about you. I'm not the only one who realizes the kind of geek you are.

Yes whatever. I'd rather be smart, intelligent and articulate rather than a moronic thick person like yourself. I'm like the Obama to you the thick Sarah Palin/George Galloway/Ahmadinejad.

LOLOLLLOLOOLOLLOOLOLLOOL

Gooooooooo baaaaaaaackkkktooooooooo yaaa friends on The Only Way is Essex and Honey Boo Boo.

 

[nickdnz]

Come on guys - can't we all just get along? No name calling aye.

And to be fair yoe91 - it is a rugby forum. If there was a place where in depth discussion about rugby was to take place - this is probably it. There is a difference between being pedantic and being accurate. I'm sure you're an intellegent enough guy to back up what ever assertions you have - but it's no good making a claim and when someone asks you to elaborate say "whaat, hey man I'm just talking. Relax guy".

If being knowledgable and passionate about rugby makes someone a geek - most regular posters on this forum aren't an exception. If you feel someone is being rude or condesending then say so - but don't for the love of god, keep justifying not backing up comments, with "stop being so serious".

We're serious men. Damn serious.

 

[TRF_Cymro]

Ye but on a serious note.

This could be an interesting game, you feel that if Scotland don't front up in the pack then the Italians could well look for another win here.