SA vs Wales (June 2022 series)

[ChicagoKid]

Marx will never start. I feel so bad for him. He is only known now as 'the replacement front row' or 'the bomb squad'. Sometimes he isn't even on the ratings after a game. He started one game since NZ 2019 WC, against Arg last year, and won MOTM. Others like that old wives tale of 'Marx line out throws' when he had a 100% record all year last year. Never missed a jumper. Not once. In that tight 2nd game his 2 or 3 turnovers would have been so valuable in the opening 40.

Bongi and the rest are decent, but Marx is one of, if not the best hooker in the world. Imagine how he feels. Every player wants to start regardless of any media narrative.

Gotta start Bongi though it's his 50th this one. Maybe Marx can start his 50th lol.

Why does it matter who starts? Several games over the past few years have seen him play more minutes than the starter.

 

[Jer1cho]

Why does it matter who starts? Several games over the past few years have seen him play more minutes than the starter.

If you ask a question like 'why does it matter who starts?' then the rest of your sentence I won't take too seriously. This is professional sport. It always matters who starts. Ascendancy, and building a lead is everything in rugby. Marx offers you that more than the others. It's not that complicated. Marx gets 2 or 3 turnover pens per game. Change that into 6 or 9 points added to a halftime lead and your whole game plan changes. (Nevermind toucline kicks converted into mall tries)

 

[Welsh Exile]

I can't remember if it was Ken Owens or Adam Jones, or whether I'm completely making this up, but I swear I remember something along the lines of one of them saying how Bongi's impact in the scrum is massive. Could it be this is why he starts over Marx? Is there a perception amongst SA supporters than Marx is the weaker scrummager?

 

[Rinkadink]

That Stander knee never hit Lambie.

Correct, it was

Interesting comparison to the yellow shown recently for jumping charge down.

 

[Jer1cho]

I can't remember if it was Ken Owens or Adam Jones, or whether I'm completely making this up, but I swear I remember something along the lines of one of them saying how Bongi's impact in the scrum is massive. Could it be this is why he starts over Marx? Is there a perception amongst SA supporters than Marx is the weaker scrummager?

Nope. Although Bongi is a great scrummager, there is no evidence to suggest he is better than Marx.

Good example. 2019 WC final. Bongi went off after 20 or so minutes. Concussion. Both SA tries, one a quick pass from Marx, the next a tackle on Slade that spilt the ball. Marx was involved in both tries. Our scrums were also dominant the entire game while Marx was on.

Look, all I'm saying is I would never ever bench the guy. I would start him every test. If he sucks, I know Bongi is a solid plan B. I would just always play him as a starter, because he is the best we have. This is a fact.

 

[Becca]

Nope. Although Bongi is a great scrummager, there is no evidence to suggest he is better than Marx.

Good example. 2019 WC final. Bongi went off after 20 or so minutes. Concussion. Both SA tries, one a quick pass from Marx, the next a tackle on Slade that spilt the ball. Marx was involved in both tries. Our scrums were also dominant the entire game while Marx was on.

Look, all I'm saying is I would never ever bench the guy. I would start him every test. If he sucks, I know Bongi is a solid plan B. I would just always play him as a starter, because he is the best we have. This is a fact.

I agree. Baffling to think he spends so much of his time benched.

 

[dullonien]

Re Beard, does anyone else think that he may actually suddenly come very good at some point? Still young, and getting quite the experience. I see him as a pragmatist that over time will improve gradually to a point he is unrecognisable. Controversial probably to say this and maybe wishful thinking as I find him painfully average to watch currently, but it seems like he gets really good recognition from the coaches, and with his age and his responsibilities think he has time to grow.

I thought Beard had come good before/on the Lions tour. Despite a lot of justifiable negatovity around his selection gievn who missed out, I thought Beard had an impressive tour.

However, his lack of physicality, especially in the carry, has been really evident again this season. There was a recent Ospreys game that demonstrated this best, he found himself out wide 5m out, was given the ball in space with a back defending him, you'd usually back a 19st (or whatever he is) lock to power over from there, but instead he got easily tackled and the ball turned over!

He looks a bit weedy to me on his upper half, especially compared to other second rows. I don't think every player needs to have bulging biceps, but as a professional athlete in a position where power matters I think there should be a minimim standard which he falls below imo.

 

[Johnny Storm]

It's a strong Bok side, but I still think Wales can thwart it. Remember many of these guys were missing last game while Wales kept the same men going, so better tuned as a unit.

Also Bok game plan is box-kicking and then straight down through channel one when they have possession. Wales is very good at defence and could stop this. Boks bad at kick and chase. It will be interesting.
I go for Wales 15 - South Africa 12

 

[Jer1cho]

It's a strong Bok side, but I still think Wales can thwart it. Remember many of these guys were missing last game while Wales kept the same men going, so better tuned as a unit.

Also Bok game plan is box-kicking and then straight down through channel one when they have possession. Wales is very good at defence and could stop this. Boks bad at kick and chase. It will be interesting.
I go for Wales 15 - South Africa 12

No chance. This will be as clinical a Bok performance as you will see. Back a Springbok into a corner and you will see what pain is. We do best as underdogs, and I reckon this game is gonna be a marker laid. Write us off at your own peril. When it clicks for us, no team can cope. As competitive as Wales have been in this series, this last game is gonna be a massive reality check. Im calling a big win this weekend. 15 plus.

 

[BenniMarco]

I thought Beard had come good before/on the Lions tour. Despite a lot of justifiable negatovity around his selection gievn who missed out, I thought Beard had an impressive tour.

However, his lack of physicality, especially in the carry, has been really evident again this season. There was a recent Ospreys game that demonstrated this best, he found himself out wide 5m out, was given the ball in space with a back defending him, you'd usually back a 19st (or whatever he is) lock to power over from there, but instead he got easily tackled and the ball turned over!

He looks a bit weedy to me on his upper half, especially compared to other second rows. I don't think every player needs to have bulging biceps, but as a professional athlete in a position where power matters I think there should be a minimim standard which he falls below imo.

Yeah I thought the same that he'd push on from a decent showing on Lions tour all things considered. If he can up his physicality I think he can be class. Time is on his side so hopefully he can push on in the gym over the next summer or 2 before the world cup as that's definitely his key weakness.

 

[JohnKA]

No chance. This will be as clinical a Bok performance as you will see. Back a Springbok into a corner and you will see what pain is. We do best as underdogs, and I reckon this game is gonna be a marker laid. Write us off at your own peril. When it clicks for us, no team can cope. As competitive as Wales have been in this series, this last game is gonna be a massive reality check. Im calling a big win this weekend. 15 plus.

I reckon all Southern hemisphere teams will bounce back this weekend.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Me saying Etzebeth had a poor game does not mean that I say drop him going forward or even drop him for a single game. I did include him in what I see as our strongest team. I was more going in the direction - although I didn't specifically state it - that we cannot lay last weeks loss at the feet of the new caps, or at least not just at their feet. Etzebeth as great a player as he is was one of the weakest links in that performance on the day. I'll stand by that statement in the isolated context of that game.

On to who else might play for us at 10.. That is a question we will need to answer and my hope is that the right person will stand up and be counted when the time comes but all the options I can think of have an asterisk next to their names;

Jantjies has had so many chances as isn't going to get any better.

Goosen was probably the best SA 10 start of last year but is made of glass and also not getting any younger.

Willemse will not be playing 10 for the Stormers and I agree with the general consensus that 12 is his best position. I don't agree that he is a better 15 than a 10 though but the combination of him playing his club rugby at 12 and his value to the Bokke as a utility back probably rules him out of the picture.

I believe we are past looking at Morne Steyn at this point?

Even though I have a soft spot for the man, I would not feel comfortable with Libbok at test level. I'd add Bosch here as well as I see them as very similar players and though I do believe that the test side has it in them to play a bit more open I believe that a mercurial player would not fit in with the rest of the side. Not if they don't sharp up their positional kicking, defense and goal kicking.

That leaves Chris Smith, Boeta Chamberlain, Hendrickse or a young up and commer like Mngomezulu or Wolhuter. Maybe given time? But the RWC is next year and it's probably going to be Jantjies and Willemse. And that's probably fair enough with no legitimate alternative in so short a time scale and Goosen being a what if.

 

[Welsh Exile]

No chance. This will be as clinical a Bok performance as you will see. Back a Springbok into a corner and you will see what pain is. We do best as underdogs, and I reckon this game is gonna be a marker laid. Write us off at your own peril. When it clicks for us, no team can cope. As competitive as Wales have been in this series, this last game is gonna be a massive reality check. Im calling a big win this weekend. 15 plus.

No chance? Don't get me wrong, you should win but you narrowly won the first test and lost the second. No chance seems a bit over the top.

 

[ChicagoKid]

No chance? Don't get me wrong, you should win but you narrowly won the first test and lost the second. No chance seems a bit over the top.

I wonder if Wales takes their foot of the pedal even slightly. The first win and all that breeds complacency. I expect a relatively close affair. Say 6-10 point Boks win.

Outside the last 10 minutes, I thought Wales was pretty poor last week.

 

[Welsh Exile]

I wonder if Wales takes their foot of the pedal even slightly. The first win and all that breeds complacency. I expect a relatively close affair. Say 6-10 point Boks win.

Outside the last 10 minutes, I thought Wales was pretty poor last week.

I don't think we've been anything to write home about in general to be honest. Gutsy for sure but nothing amazing but that would slightly worry me if I was a South African. This is a good handful of players off our first team (way down the list in TH for example) and we haven't played that well yet SA have still massively struggled against us.

I can't see us taking the foot off the pedal though, the opposite in fact. We can see the light now and we'll be very confident going into this game I feel. Don't get me wrong, I could see a 15 plus point win like has been predicted but I think that'll be down to a very strong SA performance. If I was a betting man I'd say 3-7 points, recent history would back that up. And it's not at altitude either. Excited to see how it unfolds.

 

[WaterboySA]

Very close. Neither side can afford to give anything less than 110 %. I'm not confident in ANY way. The first game was JUST too close, even if the Boks won. If we don't mince them in the scrums, it could be a long afternoon. That makes me worry a bit. I just don't have any confidence in our back line. I hope the back 3 see some ball from set pieces.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Very close. Neither side can afford to give anything less than 110 %. I'm not confident in ANY way. The first game was JUST too close, even if the Boks won. If we don't mince them in the scrums, it could be a long afternoon. That makes me worry a bit. I just don't have any confidence in our back line. I hope the back 3 see some ball from set pieces.

For me, I'd be taking hope from the fact that, while there's been decent periods when our scrum has been on par with yours, our line out is still atrocious. I'd also take confidence in the fact it looks likely Wainwright will start at 3. He gave a good account of himself at the end of the 2nd test, especially for a debutant who's barely played any senior rugby really, but you've got to think he's going to be in for a long afternoon. On top of that we'll probably have another debutant on the bench to cover him if things aren't going well. We might perhaps have Wyn Jones as TH cover but we'll have to wait and see.

I should add that they're playing down Lewis being out for the game and maybe he'll make it which would make the above irrelevant but if he does he's going to be pretty banged up so either way a pretty exploitable area of clear weakness for us.

I think the set piece is where you'll win the game. If you start strong, though, then we could be in for a hiding as the last team you want to let build pressure is SA but I'm hoping we can knock you off your stride.

 

[MikeTheNative]

Wales just don't seem to be able to really break any teams down in attack, was similar in the 6 nations. I expect SA to just maul and scrum Wales to death on the weekend.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Wales just don't seem to be able to really break any teams down in attack, was similar in the 6 nations. I expect SA to just maul and scrum Wales to death on the weekend.

Maul D has been good though (bar the last 15 mins or so in that 1st test) I think this is probably Beards biggest strength. I can see it happening though.

 

[ChicagoKid]

Maul D has been good though (bar the last 15 mins or so in that 1st test) I think this is probably Beards biggest strength. I can see it happening though.

The way the bench is lined up shows me they are going to empty the tanks and bring in the bomb squad no later than 45 minutes.

I'm expecting a vintage Boks performance win or loss.