RWC: Australia - Ireland (17-09-2011 20:30)

[kovana]

IRELAND!! OH IRELAND!!!

Awesome match. Thats why you need a scrum!

 

[kicklikeaprop]

could anyone tell me has a team lost a match and then gone on to win the cup

 

[Sam Owen]

could anyone tell me has a team lost a match and then gone on to win the cup

The Springboks of 1995, I think. I think they lost to the English first game of the pool and then went on to win the RWC.

 

[Isurus]

Good win for Ireland. **** poor performance from Oz. The best team on the day won for sure.

But here's the important consequence of this result: it is very unlikely now that either Australia or South Africa will win this world cup.

Immediately after the match I thought this result was bad for the All Blacks but having chewed it over today I am now seeing the positives. I don't think France will be overly motivated to "leave it all on the park" next weekend as a loss is, if anything, a good thing tournament-wise. And when France aren't motivated then we tend to turn them over pretty convincingly and consistently. In other words I expect us to win comfortably next weekend to setup the expected quarter finals.

Now let's say SA and Oz are 50/50 in their Quarter final. Then let's assume they play the AB's in the semi - either side has to be less than 40% to beat us at Eden Park. Then assuming they do they will have to play the best from the north to win the cup. I am going to be generous and say 50-60% chance of winning that matchup at best (I think SA's odds will be better than Australia's in this scenario, but I give them less chance of beating the AB's in the semis so that balances out). So overall they are in the 9-12% range to win the cup. And that is not even factoring the cumulative effect of this series of tough matches and the effect of injuries, burnout, wear and tear, etc.

I do resent the fact that England or France could - and probably will - get to the final without beating a Tri Nations side, but that's just the nature of this crazy beast.

 

[Isurus]

could anyone tell me has a team lost a match and then gone on to win the cup

No but England have twice made it to the final after losing a pool match.
* in 2007 England lost to South Africa in their pool (36-0) and then met them again in the final (15-6).
* in 1991 England lost to New Zealand in the opener (18-12) but then went on to play Australia in the final (12-6).
(* in 1987 France drew 20-20 with Scotland in pool play but still reached the final.)

 

[TRF_Olyy]

The Springboks of 1995, I think. I think they lost to the English first game of the pool and then went on to win the RWC.

They were in a different pool to us in 1995, and won all three


I think that the winner has unbeaten every year (I'm sure I've heard that stat thrown around by the commentators etc. at some point)

 

[Isurus]

The Springboks of 1995, I think. I think they lost to the English first game of the pool and then went on to win the RWC.

Nope, they won all of their pool matches (including against Australia). You are thinking of 2003 when they lost to England in pool play. They were subsequently knocked out by New Zealand in the Quarter-Final.

 

[shtove]

Immediately after the match I thought this result was bad for the All Blacks but having chewed it over today I am now seeing the positives. I don't think France will be overly motivated to "leave it all on the park" next weekend as a loss is, if anything, a good thing tournament-wise. And when France aren't motivated then we tend to turn them over pretty convincingly and consistently. In other words I expect us to win comfortably next weekend to setup the expected quarter finals.

First thing that occurred to me is France might put out a second string side for the ABs, expecting to go the NH route to the final.

But I don't think so.

France will fancy themselves against the ABs, and the sooner they crack it the better for them. Plus, Ireland showed that SH attack can be contained without too many fireworks, so France have no particular worries about going the SH route to the final - what I mean is that France would expect as many problems from England as from SA, from Wales/Ireland as from Aus: so the ABs are their big threat, but less of a threat if already beaten.

I think that's a straightforward calculation, because bonus points probably won't be a factor.

In the end I'm saying that France could beat the ABs twice ... hehehe.

We'll know once the team selections are announced. Or will we? France mess about with selection like Charlie Sheen in a brothel.

 

[Mr.cyclopede]

Not because of Ireland win opportunism, but because it was already in their competition plan (getting fit for a England QF), I don't think France will search for the accomplishment vs NZ in the pool.
About the NH way, France are maybe the most aware nation on how it looks impossible to go through 2 SH victories, so a bit of pragmatism will be welcome on this.
Talking a possible B team, no way because she don't even have an A one after the wonderful turnover we recorded since the last WRC.

But agree with you Shtove, Ireland give us a good example on how to defend without fireworks...

 

[Sam Owen]

They were in a different pool to us in 1995, and won all three


I think that the winner has unbeaten every year (I'm sure I've heard that stat thrown around by the commentators etc. at some point)

Nope, they won all of their pool matches (including against Australia). You are thinking of 2003 when they lost to England in pool play. They were subsequently knocked out by New Zealand in the Quarter-Final.

Oh ok, I thought the Boks lost to England during the RWC 95. I think I got confused watching the Invictus movie, where the 'Boks lost to England (which mustve been before the 95 RWC) and then Mandela focused on turning around the 'Boks and........HOW DARES YOUS CORRECT ME!!!

 

[lucky number 7]

I think I'm just used to seeing him run over/through so many people that when none of that happened today I didn't realise

Didn't help that all of the backrowers were wearing scrumcaps making it hard to differentiate

He was the outstandingly handsome one Olyy...

 

[shtove]

About the NH way, France are maybe the most aware nation on how it looks impossible to go through 2 SH victories, so a bit of pragmatism will be welcome on this.

You can't win the RWC if you don't beat 2 SH teams - that's the way it's always been, but Ireland's win may have changed that. I'll only believe it when I see it, so I think France should be at Defcon 1 next week and do it the SH route.

Anyway, France can never celebrate a win like Ireland:

<iframe src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/pVD7ZcA4p-M" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" width="420"></iframe>

 

[Isurus]

First thing that occurred to me is France might put out a second string side for the ABs, expecting to go the NH route to the final.

But I don't think so.

France will fancy themselves against the ABs, and the sooner they crack it the better for them. Plus, Ireland showed that SH attack can be contained without too many fireworks, so France have no particular worries about going the SH route to the final - what I mean is that France would expect as many problems from England as from SA, from Wales/Ireland as from Aus: so the ABs are their big threat, but less of a threat if already beaten.

I think that's a straightforward calculation, because bonus points probably won't be a factor. Definitely France v ABs will be the match of the tournament so far.

Respectfully, I can't agree with any of this.

I'm not saying they will put out a second string team - I can't see that happening because the negative consequences of that will be too much. I am talking about the mental side of the French. We are all familiar with the whole "which French team will show up" thing and with nothing much on the line (on the contrary) I just can't see them putting in a massive performance, and without one they won't win.

And consider this, even if they do fancy their chances, put out a massive performance, and beat the All Blacks on Eden Park, then what? Then, after a straight-forward quarter final against Argentina or Scotland, they then have to deal with South Africa/Australia. There is worse to come - they will then have every reason to expect to face New Zealand again in the final. New Zealanders probably don't see it as clearly as they should but there is nothing more dangerous in world sport than a wounded All Black team (which is why it is best to do the wounding in the knock-out stages of a World Cup ). If France beat us next weekend and we end up facing them again in the final then I would give the French very little chance of repeating the feat.

The route you seem to be favouring means having to come up with 3 massive performances. I think the other route means they can get to the final without ever hitting top form and then coming up with one huge performance in the final.

Each time they have beaten New Zealand in a World Cup they have followed up with an average performance and been comfortably beaten.

And you said this: "Plus, Ireland showed that SH attack can be contained without too many fireworks." With all due respect that is utter drivel. Ireland contained Oz today because they dominated up front and defended very well. If you are saying that all you need to do to beat the All Blacks is dominate up front and defend well, then ......... I agree. Good luck with that.

 

[dangandan]

Anyone think Tommy Bowe looked really slow for that intercept??

 

[Mr.cyclopede]

Respectfully, I can't agree with any of this.

If you are saying that all you need to do to beat the All Blacks is dominate up front and defend well, then ......... I agree. Good luck with that.

Not maybe NZ, but with both SA and Australia, it offently happened in WRC or tests match for France, England and Walles, now for Ireland.
A bit less true for NZ: If France took the victory in 1999, it was essentially because they incredibly leveled up their level, in 2007 it was much more because of this defense.
Totally agree with your point of view, the only NZ/France clash if it has to be, will be on final. None of chance for us to achieve a miracle twice vs NZ in a championship.

 

[shtove]

Respectfully, I can't agree with any of this.

I'm not saying they will put out a second string team - I can't see that happening because the negative consequences of that will be too much. I am talking about the mental side of the French. We are all familiar with the whole "which French team will show up" thing and with nothing much on the line (on the contrary) I just can't see them putting in a massive performance, and without one they won't win.

And consider this, even if they do fancy their chances, put out a massive performance, and beat the All Blacks on Eden Park, then what? Then, after a straight-forward quarter final against Argentina or Scotland, they then have to deal with South Africa/Australia. There is worse to come - they will then have every reason to expect to face New Zealand again in the final. New Zealanders probably don't see it as clearly as they should but there is nothing more dangerous in world sport than a wounded All Black team (which is why it is best to do the wounding in the knock-out stages of a World Cup ). If France beat us next weekend and we end up facing them again in the final then I would give the French very little chance of repeating the feat.

The route you seem to be favouring means having to come up with 3 massive performances. I think the other route means they can get to the final without ever hitting top form and then coming up with one huge performance in the final.

Each time they have beaten New Zealand in a World Cup they have followed up with an average performance and been comfortably beaten.

And you said this: "Plus, Ireland showed that SH attack can be contained without too many fireworks." With all due respect that is utter drivel. Ireland contained Oz today because they dominated up front and defended very well. If you are saying that all you need to do to beat the All Blacks is dominate up front and defend well, then ......... I agree. Good luck with that.

You're making alot of assumptions, and it's a good debate.

But here's the thing: Ireland's win just shifted the ground under SH rugby (I don't include SA). The best attacking team in the world was contained fairly handily by a drift defence that Ireland uses all the time in the 6N.

France has a stronger pack than Ireland, and if defensive discipline from the 6N has become dominant, then taking on SH teams multiple times won't be as as hard for them as it was in the past - they can do it. In other words, the necessary performances are just as massive whichever route France takes to the final. In other other words, the RWC is wide open and nobody is better positioned than France. Not saying they're the favourites - that's still the ABs - but France have the first opportunity to make a mess of the favourites, and they should take it rather than back off.

Can they do it to the ABs twice? I am looking forward to the answer.

 

[M Two One]

could anyone tell me has a team lost a match and then gone on to win the cup

Nope, all previous winners were undefeated through each tournament.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Anyone think Tommy Bowe looked really slow for that intercept??

Nah, Bowe has never been known for his speed, he's one of the best because of the way he reads the game/the lines he runs
JOC is much faster than he is

 

[dangandan]

Nah, Bowe has never been known for his speed, he's one of the best because of the way he reads the game/the lines he runs
JOC is much faster than he is

Yeah you're right. He makes a lot of half breaks but he's not an out and out finisher. He suits the way Ireland plays though, inside cuts etc.

 

[shtove]

Nah, Bowe has never been known for his speed, he's one of the best because of the way he reads the game/the lines he runs
JOC is much faster than he is

Yeah, we found out years ago that BOD is a 30m man. Bowe showed today he's a 60m man. JOC is the full 100m.

When Bowe hit the Aus 10m line it was clear he was going to be caught. Sexton should have kept up in support, but he slacked off and did that pointing-to-the-corner "you go, girl" thing. Chance wasted.