Opening test line up predictions

[valley commando]

And Sinckler can cover 9.

Funny guy.
I just looked at Woodwards test selection, its not often I'd agree with him, he has also gone 6-2 bench

 

[Larksea]

my one biggest take home point from the AB's vs. Samoa game was how much better the team operated with Perenara on the park compared to smith. The AB's absolutely piled on the points at the end and Perenara was pretty much involved in all of it.

I think Perenara is quite simply just in better form right now, has been all season and absolutely deserves to start.

The rest of the AB side basically picks itself.
Read will come into #8
SBW and ALB looked great in midfield but Crotty is an option. We could actually see these 3 players rotated a bit or picked according to the game plan or opposition. I still think ALB has had a huge amount of rugby in the last year and he could really do with a week or two off at some point...

 

[TopTen2003]

I am almost sure that Warren is going to surprise us and part of me wonders whether he may go with both Warburton and O'Brien, with Warburton doing a 50 minute stint and the pair of them just causing absolute havoc at the breakdown. POM can then come on and take over the armband for the last 30. He'd be unlucky not to start, but Gatland will go with what he thinks will suit and for me when Warburton came on at 6 off the bench last week that spoke volumes. I think those two and Faletau would be right in amongst the All Blacks at the breakdown and they have to stop that NZ momentum early- they don't want to go chasing the game.

6-Warburton
7-OBrien
8-Faletau

The tight 5 is intriguing and I'd hazard a guess that Owens/AWJ combo or George/Itoje combo will either be on the field together or off the field together. Gatland has talked loads about impact and depth across the full 80 minutes and I expect that AWJ will start as a key leader behind Sam Warburton. Itoje, George, and POM off the bench would be a mighty trio against tired bodies...

1-Vunipola
2-Owens
3-Furlong

Murray is our gun 9- no question. The headache is 10/12. Personally I feel that no one has put their hand up to play 12 other than the calm and collected performance of Farrell against the Crusaders. With Sextons resurgence, that to me looks the favourite right now. Ben Teo has been the form centre, but deployed at 12 in a power game. I actually think he will be most effective off the bench like he was for England in the 6N and I think the Lions will play more expansive than they have shown this Saturday, providing and relying that Farrell and Sexton kick them into better areas.

That logic- again the IMPACT word that Gatland mentioned- would make Jonathan Joseph favourite to start at 13. He blows hot and cold for me and doesn't quite offer enough in tight physical games, but he was GATLANDS pick in this squad and his partnership with Farrell in the England midfield could win him a test spot here, knowing that if he doesn't cause NZ any problems he should be organised in defence and that Teo can bring the physical game if that becomes the emphasis.
SEXTON-FARRELL-JOSEPH midfield with Teo off the bench.

The back 3 should consist of Halfpenny, North, Watson. Halfpenny hasn't set the tour alight like against Australia but looked more like himself against the Maori- he kicked well and was excellent positionally, which incidentally will be important with the Lions rush defence open to grubber kicks and chips.

I think North will start, not because he has shone because I think he isn't what he onc was in attack, but he does offer good defence and also that crash ball option with his size. He will be Gatlands safe selection. I think he might make way for Elliot Daly later in the game (Daly will be on the bench for versatility and his kicking range makes him a threat). Watson looks good and covers all back 3 positions, so he and Halfpenny give good kicking game protection from any high balls, as well as electric pace.

11-North
14-Watson
15-Halfpenny

Giving us a starting 15 of:

1. Vunipola
2. Owens
3. Furlong
4. AWJ
5. Kruis
6. Warburton
7. SOB
8. Faletau
9. Murray
10. Sexton
11. North
12. Farrell
13. Joseph
14. Watson
15. Halfpenny

16. George
17. McGrath
18. Sinkler
19. Itoje
20. POM
21. Teo
22. Webb
23. Daly

The bench screams impact. Teo, Daly in the backs and George, Sinckler POM and Itoje in the forwards.

That's what I think Gatland will go with - not what I'd necessarily pick but the one he classes as his gun team with genuine impact off the bench.

 

[TopTen2003]

EDIT: duplicate post

 

[Nubiwan]

Wyn Jones and Warburton will be drafted in. I'd be astonished if Gatland leaves out either. Teo will also play even though himself and Davies 12 and 13 is a death sentence for the wingers.

It'll be

1.Vunipola
2.George
3.Furlong
4.AWJ
5.Kruis
6.Warburton
7.SOB
8.Faletau
9.Murray
10.Farrell (even though he'll pay lip service to Itoje and POM this is his only real headache)
11.Doesn't matter
12.Teo
13.Davies
14.Doesn't matter
15.Doesn't matter but this one will kick.

I think it will be Sexton at 10, and Farrell on the bench. Agree with your wing and FB selections (Doesn't matter has looked sharp), and fear the rest of your line up is spot on too. I'll be pretty disappointed if this is what we see Satdee. But not surprised.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

So reckon it will be
1) Vunipola, 2) Owens, 3) Furlong
4) Kruis, 5) AWJ
6) POM, 7) SOB, 8) TF
9) Murray, 10) Sexton
12) T'eo, 13) Davies
11) Watson, 14) North, 15) Halfpenny

16) George, 17) McGrath, 18) Sinckler
19) Itoje, 20) Warbs
21) Webb, 22) Farrell, 23) Daly

 

[MarkyH]

Here in my prediction, I think we might get a surprise and see Daly over North but that will be it. My team would be different, but you have to factor in Gat's favorites

1. Vunipola
2. George
3. Furlong
4. Itoje
5. Kruis
6. POM
7. SOB
8. Faletau
9. Murray
10. Sexton
11. Daly
12. Te'o (I'd rather play Farrell here)
13. Davies (Don't mind between Davies, Henshaw or JJ)
14. Watson
15. Halfpenny (I'd pick Williams)

16. Owens
17. McGrath
18. Sinkler
19. Lawes
20. Warbs (I'd get Tips in here)
21. Webb
22. Farrell
23. Joseph/North

 

[BobbyM]

Not wrong bro, no doubt Naholo's form has been superior, and I was as disappointed as anyone that Lowe and Dmac weren't selected... but yea, I reckon that's the way Shag will go. IMHO Savea and Dagg were good vs Samoa, but they did have a pretty easy ride really. Anyone would've looked good on the wings in that game, so maybe they'll give Naholo the nod. That's the only real spot in the 23 genuinely up for grabs imo, the rest are pretty set.

I think the big takeaway for D-Mac from the game is he needs another 10kg of muscle on him to be able to compete internationally. He looked very slight and was targeted for it by the Lions.

On the wings, agree with all of the above, Naholo has been in better form than Savea and Dagg hasn't really shown enough. Would like to see:

11: Naholo - prefer him as the "big destructive winger", traditionally an 11 for the ABs, with the whippet playing 14.
14: Ioane
15: Smith
23: J Barrett

I like the flexibility of having Ioane as a centre/winger hybrid who could play both if needed. We know Hansen loves his flexible players and with Ioane he gets both wings plus outside centre covered.
Barrett similarly can play centre and full back, and Bender can play on the wing if needed.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

Did today earn Nowell a place? I believe so. It could just be my Exeter bias but when no winger has put their hand up, surely today's game should get him in. He got to play his game today and got much more ball and he really showed what he can do. Gets in over North for me.

 

[Nubiwan]

Did today earn Nowell a place? I believe so. It could just be my Exeter bias but when no winger has put their hand up, surely today's game should get him in. He got to play his game today and got much more ball and he really showed what he can do. Gets in over North for me.

Nowell, Daly and Williams showed more enterprise in today's match than the Lions have all tour. I'd put them all in, but no way 1/2 pint is not starting for Gatland. Daly and Nowell otherwise have looked most dangerous with ball in hand. You have to think North is favourite, all the same. Not for anything flash he has done.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

Nowell, Daly and Williams showed more enterprise in today's match than the Lions have all tour. I'd put them all in, but no way 1/2 pint is not starting for Gatland. Daly and Nowell otherwise have looked most dangerous with ball in hand. You have to think North is favourite, all the same. Not for anything flash he has done.

At this point my ideal back three would be:
11. Daly
14. Nowell
15. Watson

 

[Nubiwan]

Here in my prediction, I think we might get a surprise and see Daly over North but that will be it. My team would be different, but you have to factor in Gat's favorites

1. Vunipola
2. George
3. Furlong
4. Itoje
5. Kruis
6. POM
7. SOB
8. Faletau
9. Murray
10. Sexton
11. Daly
12. Te'o (I'd rather play Farrell here)
13. Davies (Don't mind between Davies, Henshaw or JJ)
14. Watson
15. Halfpenny (I'd pick Williams)

16. Owens
17. McGrath
18. Sinkler
19. Lawes
20. Warbs (I'd get Tips in here)
21. Webb
22. Farrell
23. Joseph/North

If we have that starting line up, then I'd be reasonably pleased.

The fact we all have to factor in Gatland's Welsh predeliction is pretty pathetic if you ask me. I reckon one of Warburton or AWJ is starting. North too. An 1/2 pint is like Gatland's boy. Its not like any of these players is particular poor, but none has been outstanding on the tour either. Warburton has been plain invisible when you consider a captains role. The whole Welsh thing is just ticking me off.

Your pack is correct. 9 and 10 is probably what we will see. I'd like Farrell, but Sextons last two games were better. Crap, Biggar had a decent match today as well (Waikato). I think Te'o and Davies is about right for what Gatland wants from the game. Te'o has played himself on test if you ask me. Davies has been his partner. The back 3 has been a toss up for the entire tour, but if I went on form, I'd probably be looking at Watson, Nowell, Joseph and Daly, but almost guaranteed North and 1/2 pint have vacuumed up two of those spots .....

Do the welsh posters on here feel the same way we do about the state of affairs? Rather a wait and see on Saturday before the "told you so's" can be aired.

 

[Nubiwan]

At this point my ideal back three would be:
11. Daly
14. Nowell
15. Watson

Don't put much cash on it....... If we go down 2 tests to love, then better chance that's our back 3. Just you watch.

 

[Reiser99]

Did today earn Nowell a place? I believe so. It could just be my Exeter bias but when no winger has put their hand up, surely today's game should get him in. He got to play his game today and got much more ball and he really showed what he can do. Gets in over North for me.

The problem is that he has had one very bad game. The other big issue is that attacking wise, many of the wings have not had a chance to show their skills. I would say North has not done much, definitely less than Watson in similar circumstances, but we are talking about very little time on the ball with space here. Would North have been able to finish Nowell try? I think probably. On the other hand North is an unknown, so you could say even if Nowell has played badly once, he's also played well once and North has done neither. The wing is very difficult, because some players have been judged on poor performances when the team has lost, yet North has been in the winning weekend team everytime without doing much at all. I'd say only Watson has looked consistent with the little ball the wings get.

I think it's a risk playing North as his form is hot and cold, but I can see Gatland sticking with him. However if the Lions lose or North has a bad game then someone might have a chance in the next tests, especially if they perform in the last Tuesday game.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

Disagree that North would've scored Nowell's tries. He wouldn't have been off his wing for the first and Nowell had a ton of work to do in the second, North would've charged for the line and gotten stopped, Nowell just glided through with footwork.

 

[Reiser99]

Unfortunately as I said with the wings not getting the ball as often we will never know. This is the difficulty. I do agree with you though about Nowell being off his wing. I think Daly and Nowell went looking for the ball far more and that's why they were more involved. Somehow I suspect this may have been them playing their natural game, rather than tactics from Howler. However I still think Gatland will stick with his plan and only make changes if the Lions lose badly or someone really impresses in the last warm up game.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

I'm watching the game now and I don't think it's a case of that the ball is going to the wings more, it's that the wings are going to the ball. They aren't getting it much on their wings, they're going searching for it. North just doesn't do that.

 

[Reiser99]

Possibly, though I feel the backs were looking to pass it out wide more. Maybe it was also a case of JD and Te'o not passing when they had the opportunity. Tbh I would love an in form Nowell to start, but I'm hesitant, due to the lack of backs play overall and the fact that he was shown up by Ioane and that also the Chiefs clealy were not at their best. It's a simple fact that when it comes to the backs, there are too many unknowns, because we simply haven't seen enough compared with the forwards. This is why I think it will be a risk, whoever is selected.

 

[MarkyH]

If we have that starting line up, then I'd be reasonably pleased.

The fact we all have to factor in Gatland's Welsh predeliction is pretty pathetic if you ask me. I reckon one of Warburton or AWJ is starting. North too. An 1/2 pint is like Gatland's boy. Its not like any of these players is particular poor, but none has been outstanding on the tour either. Warburton has been plain invisible when you consider a captains role. The whole Welsh thing is just ticking me off.

Your pack is correct. 9 and 10 is probably what we will see. I'd like Farrell, but Sextons last two games were better. Crap, Biggar had a decent match today as well (Waikato). I think Te'o and Davies is about right for what Gatland wants from the game. Te'o has played himself on test if you ask me. Davies has been his partner. The back 3 has been a toss up for the entire tour, but if I went on form, I'd probably be looking at Watson, Nowell, Joseph and Daly, but almost guaranteed North and 1/2 pint have vacuumed up two of those spots .....

Do the welsh posters on here feel the same way we do about the state of affairs? Rather a wait and see on Saturday before the "told you so's" can be aired.

While I tend to agree that Gats has a rather large Welsh bias, he's choosing the wrong Welsh. If it was Tips and Williams over Halfpenny and Warbs I wouldn't worry about it. I'm not convinced we need two carriers at 12/13 but at least we have either Daly or JJ to mix things up a little bit if needed.

Howver if AWJ gets a starting role over Itoje, or even a bench role over Lawes that will confirm everything we need to know

 

[General Melchett]

While I tend to agree that Gats has a rather large Welsh bias, he's choosing the wrong Welsh. If it was Tips and Williams over Halfpenny and Warbs I wouldn't worry about it. I'm not convinced we need two carriers at 12/13 but at least we have either Daly or JJ to mix things up a little bit if needed.

Howver if AWJ gets a starting role over Itoje, or even a bench role over Lawes that will confirm everything we need to know

I think any other head coach who was selecting based on form and fitness wouldn't even have Warburton, AWJ, North and 1/2P in the 23. The first three have been given way too much time and allowance in the hope that they will hit form/fitness in time for the tests. 1/2P's kicking wouldn't be required if Farrell was playing at 12.