Opening test line up predictions

[RugbyPUBtbilisi]

How to beat All Blacks Vol1

 

[Ground We Won]

I'd probs have Naholo starting before I'd have Ioane starting.
I wouldn't pick Dagg either... the guy I'd pick isn't even in the squad... but he still has time to prove himself and he is a proven top performer at test level, so I expect him to grab that spot, and I don't mind that...

What do you make of the non-selection of Fekitoa? I know you're a fan of him so probs not too pleased... but do you agree with the midfielders they've selected, and do you reckon Goodhue was a fair call for injury cover??

Personally I'm obviously pleased to see Ngani there, but surprised too... they've gone for three specialist 12s and one 13 which I didn't expect. And having Goodhue instead of Feks as cover is a bit of a kick in the guts to Feks. At the same time though, Goodhue has been great and is very promising, so I don't really disagree with the decision.

Honestly mate, it's not the end of the world. I take it personally sometimes because Dunedins a small town and I know how hard these guys work to be where they are.

The problem I have is Goodhue deserves a shot with the All Blacks, but not here and now. The RC and the EotYT are more appropriate. He's uncapped and Fekitoa is now a 20+ cap veteran world cup winner and who is in good form with his Super Rugby side. I think it's an inappropriate call, and that's with any bias aside. There was no need to name him as injury cover over Fekitoa. It's a message to Fekitoa he's no longer in their plans, not a very nice one either.

Another big problem I have is Lima Sopoaga. I understand where he's coming from, he wants cover for Cruden and Barrett. But Sopoaga could've easily have been named as an injury cover player if that was the case though. For me Lima is inconsistent and prone to throwing matches far too frequently to justify a selection. D.McKenzie should've definitely got the nod ahead of him.

Hansen has a plan and he's the man. But I just feel like we're not using all our weapons in our arsenal.

 

[Caitlyn Jenner]

Honestly mate, it's not the end of the world. I take it personally sometimes because Dunedins a small town and I know how hard these guys work to be where they are.

The problem I have is Goodhue deserves a shot with the All Blacks, but not here and now. The RC and the EotYT are more appropriate. He's uncapped and Fekitoa is now a 20+ cap veteran world cup winner and who is in good form with his Super Rugby side. I think it's an inappropriate call, and that's with any bias aside. There was no need to name him as injury cover over Fekitoa. It's a message to Fekitoa he's no longer in their plans, not a very nice one either.

Another big problem I have is Lima Sopoaga. I understand where he's coming from, he wants cover for Cruden and Barrett. But Sopoaga could've easily have been named as an injury cover player if that was the case though. For me Lima is inconsistent and prone to throwing matches far too frequently to justify a selection. D.McKenzie should've definitely got the nod ahead of him.

Hansen has a plan and he's the man. But I just feel like we're not using all our weapons in our arsenal.

I completely agree with everything you just said.

 

[Ground We Won]

I completely agree with everything you just said.

Just to touch on the Naholo over Ioane selection. I think selecting playmakers and high ball specialists works for us at 14. We have liked to do that in the last 6 years isntead of having 2 battering rams on the wing. We've like to employ Savea at 11 then playmakers and high specialists at 14, like C.Jane, B.Smith, Piutau, NMS, Dagg and now Ioane.

I don't think the balance would be there with Naholo and Savea being selected for the starting XV.

I'm backing R.Ioane to start if Dagg doesn't show up this weekend.

 

[ALJ]

In terms of how I see the starting test XV right now (injuries not withstanding):
Back Three - North, Watson, H/penny.
(It seems that Gatland prefers H/penny at 15 so Hogg needs some strong performances to force his way in).

Centres - Henshaw, Davies
(Don't think there's much between Te'o (better first game but against a worse side) and Henshaw so all to play for).

Halfbacks - Murray & Farrell
(can't really see it any other way - I know people are still harboring thoughts of Farrell playing at 12 but, barring injuries, I think that's been put to bed. Gatland's constantly reiterated that he sees him as a 10. I'm guessing he'll provide the i/c cover in the tests but don't see that he can train properly for two positions as it asks too much of him and the squad.).

Front three - McGrath, Owens, Furlong
(for the props - imho you take your pick as none of them look like they'll let you down)

2nd Row - Kruis, Itoje
(Gatland does love AWJ but unless he gets his act together, I just can't see him making the side (worst of the available options right now imho). Not sure why Henderson isn't getting more opportunity).

Back row - TF, Stander, Warburton (c)
(TF has to start, after that I think you're looking at combos - As others have said, it seems the least clear area - probably because there are so many options).

Subs - George, MV, Sinkler, Lawes, O'Brien, Webb, Sexton, Joseph
(props - gonna be the toughest call, could be any). Assuming Watson starts - you get cover across all positions with one of these guys in place)

All just IMHO, loads of possible options but have avoided the temptation to hedge my bets and so deliberately picked just 23 since that's what will have to be done.
I didn't consider nationalities when doing this but it turns out of the 23, you get England = 9, Ireland = 7, Wales = 7, Scotland = 0.

Yes, I have too much time on my hands.

 

[valley commando]

Is Sam Davies in the squad? Nailed on starter I tell ya now, just like I told you he would be first choice Wales 10 by the end of the 6N

Anyway, I jest. Here is my squad. I like it loads I think Farrell will play into 12.

McGrath
Best
Furlong
Itoje
Kruis
Warbs
Tipuric
Faletau

Murray
Sexton
North
Farrell
Joseph
Watson
Hogg

Mako, George, Cole, AWJ, Stander, Webb, Henshaw, Williams

Irish front row, England locks, Welsh back row. Good combos and pace in the backs. Power and pace to come off the bench.

I like your pack but not your backs 9 Webb, 10 Farrell, 11 North, 12, Teo, 13 Davies, 14 Williams, 15 1/2 p is my choice and I reckon Gats will be similar, having moved Williams and Webb off your bench to start I would also replace with Murray and Sexton

 

[valley commando]

In terms of how I see the starting test XV right now (injuries not withstanding):
Back Three - North, Watson, H/penny.
(It seems that Gatland prefers H/penny at 15 so Hogg needs some strong performances to force his way in).

Centres - Henshaw, Davies
(Don't think there's much between Te'o (better first game but against a worse side) and Henshaw so all to play for).

Halfbacks - Murray & Farrell
(can't really see it any other way - I know people are still harboring thoughts of Farrell playing at 12 but, barring injuries, I think that's been put to bed. Gatland's constantly reiterated that he sees him as a 10. I'm guessing he'll provide the i/c cover in the tests but don't see that he can train properly for two positions as it asks too much of him and the squad.).

Front three - McGrath, Owens, Furlong
(for the props - imho you take your pick as none of them look like they'll let you down)

2nd Row - Kruis, Itoje
(Gatland does love AWJ but unless he gets his act together, I just can't see him making the side (worst of the available options right now imho). Not sure why Henderson isn't getting more opportunity).

Back row - TF, Stander, Warburton (c)
(TF has to start, after that I think you're looking at combos - As others have said, it seems the least clear area - probably because there are so many options).

Subs - George, MV, Sinkler, Lawes, O'Brien, Webb, Sexton, Joseph
(props - gonna be the toughest call, could be any). Assuming Watson starts - you get cover across all positions with one of these guys in place)

All just IMHO, loads of possible options but have avoided the temptation to hedge my bets and so deliberately picked just 23 since that's what will have to be done.
I didn't consider nationalities when doing this but it turns out of the 23, you get England = 9, Ireland = 7, Wales = 7, Scotland = 0.

Yes, I have too much time on my hands.

I think it would be madness to leave Tips out of any match day squad and see him as a starter all day long with Warburton if fit as a 6

 

[ALJ]

I think it would be madness to leave Tips out of any match day squad and see him as a starter all day long with Warburton if fit as a 6

I'm not saying that the side would be my choice necessarily, just how I see it lining up.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

I think it would be madness to leave Tips out of any match day squad and see him as a starter all day long with Warburton if fit as a 6

I agree Tips should be starting but I can't see it with Warbs as captain.
6. Warburton 7. Tipuric with either Stander or Faletau at 8 seems like a very lightweight back row. It's got to be Warbs or Tips, and Gats has made his choice.

 

[valley commando]

I agree Tips should be starting but I can't see it with Warbs as captain.
6. Warburton 7. Tipuric with either Stander or Faletau at 8 seems like a very lightweight back row. It's got to be Warbs or Tips, and Gats has made his choice.

It would be interesting to get the weight figures, I,m guessing Tips isn't that much lighter than other 6 and 7s in the squad

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

It would be interesting to get the weight figures, I,m guessing Tips isn't that much lighter than other 6 and 7s in the squad

I meant more that it lacks ball carrying ability rather than necessarily being lightweight, but on weight figures:

Tipuric - 102kg

Warburton - 103kg
Moriarty - 106kg
O'Mahony - 107kg
O'Brien - 108kg
Faletau - 110kg
Stander - 114kg
Haskell - 118kg

So yes, Warburton-Tipuric is the lightest flanker combo that we can put out, 205kg, 11kg less than the likely NZ combo of Kaino (113) and Cane (103).

 

[ALJ]

I meant more that it lacks ball carrying ability rather than necessarily being lightweight, but on weight figures:

Tipuric - 102kg

Warburton - 103kg
Moriarty - 106kg
O'Mahony - 107kg
O'Brien - 108kg
Faletau - 110kg
Stander - 114kg
Haskell - 118kg

So yes, Warburton-Tipuric is the lightest flanker combo that we can put out, 205kg, 11kg less than the likely NZ combo of Kaino (113) and Cane (103).

I'd just done the same thing in stones and pounds but you beat me to it.

My reasoning for the team selection exactly matches yours.

 

[valley commando]

I meant more that it lacks ball carrying ability rather than necessarily being lightweight, but on weight figures:

Tipuric - 102kg

Warburton - 103kg
Moriarty - 106kg
O'Mahony - 107kg
O'Brien - 108kg
Faletau - 110kg
Stander - 114kg
Haskell - 118kg

So yes, Warburton-Tipuric is the lightest flanker combo that we can put out, 205kg, 11kg less than the likely NZ combo of Kaino (113) and Cane (103).

I take your point re ball carrying ability, from a skill level though Tips is the stand out flanker in the NH and Falatau the most skillful no 8, whichever way you look at it the back row is probably the hardest selection more so on who you leave out rather than who you pick

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

I take your point re ball carrying ability, from a skill level though Tips is the stand out flanker in the NH and Falatau the most skillful no 8, whichever way you look at it the back row is probably the hardest selection more so on who you leave out rather than who you pick

Completely agree on Tips, as I said I'd have selected him over Warburton for the XV but that's not gonna happen and as important as skill is, you need someone who can carry the ball in the back row, and when Vunipola isn't in the squad, having Warbs and Tips in the same back row simply isn't doable IMO. We have no out and out carrier at 8 so need a 6 who can share the responsibility. Warbs can't do that.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

Just to touch on the Naholo over Ioane selection. I think selecting playmakers and high ball specialists works for us at 14. We have liked to do that in the last 6 years isntead of having 2 battering rams on the wing. We've like to employ Savea at 11 then playmakers and high specialists at 14, like C.Jane, B.Smith, Piutau, NMS, Dagg and now Ioane.

I don't think the balance would be there with Naholo and Savea being selected for the starting XV.

I'm backing R.Ioane to start if Dagg doesn't show up this weekend.

Agree that Savea-Naholo makes for a very unbalanced back three, but does Ioane fall into that playmaker-high specialist bracket? I've always seen him more as a power winger, less so than Savea and Naholo, but not quite your NMS/Dagg.

 

[Ground We Won]

Agree that Savea-Naholo makes for a very unbalanced back three, but does Ioane fall into that playmaker-high specialist bracket? I've always seen him more as a power winger, less so than Savea and Naholo, but not quite your NMS/Dagg.

Definitely has playmaker abilities and competent under the highball, he has a varied skill set. He was playing midfield with the Blues for the majority of the season while SBW was injured. That's why he's edged a player like James Lowe.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

Interesting reads guys. I came on here to have a look at what the likely lions 23 might be for the tests, not knowing too much about northern hemisphere rugby. I'll put out my prediction, bearing in mind aforementioned caveats.

Irish front row
Itoje
Lawes
O'Brien
Warburton
Faletau
Murray
Farrell
north
te'o
joseph
watson
halfpenny

reserves: sinckler, vunipola, owens, Kruis, Stander, webb, sexton, hogg

all blacks:
moody
harris
franks
retallick
white lock
kaino
cane
read
perenara
barrett
naholo
SBW
ALB
smith
barret

reserves: crockett taylor faumuina barrett a.savea smith laumape ione

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Got to say based now on the opening 3 rounds i would like to see.
1) McGrath, 2) George, 3) Furlong
4) Itoje, 5) Lawes,
6) POM, 7) SOB, 8) TF
9) Murray, 10) Sexton
12) Farrell, 13) T'eo
11) Daly, 14) North, 15) Watson

16) Owens, 17) Vunipola, 18) Sinckler
19) Kruis, 20) Stander
21) Webb, 22) Davies, 23) Seymour/Williams/Hogg (Don't care)

What i think Gatland now has in mind
1) McGrath, 2) Owens, 3) Furlong
4) Itoje, 5) AWJ
6) Stander, 7) Warburton, 8) TF
9) Murray, 10) Sexton
12) T'eo, 13) Farrell
11) Williams, 14) North, 15) Halfpenny

16) George, 17) Vunipola, 18) Cole
19) Lawes, 20) POM
21) Davies, 22) Davies, 23) Watson

 

[Reiser99]

Got to say based now on the opening 3 rounds i would like to see.
1) McGrath, 2) George, 3) Furlong
4) Itoje, 5) Lawes,
6) POM, 7) SOB, 8) TF
9) Murray, 10) Sexton
12) Farrell, 13) T'eo
11) Daly, 14) North, 15) Watson

16) Owens, 17) Vunipola, 18) Sinckler
19) Kruis, 20) Stander
21) Webb, 22) Davies, 23) Seymour/Williams/Hogg (Don't care)

What i think Gatland now has in mind
1) McGrath, 2) Owens, 3) Furlong
4) Itoje, 5) AWJ
6) Stander, 7) Warburton, 8) TF
9) Murray, 10) Sexton
12) T'eo, 13) Farrell
11) Williams, 14) North, 15) Halfpenny

16) George, 17) Vunipola, 18) Cole
19) Lawes, 20) POM
21) Davies, 22) Davies, 23) Watson

It's amazing how happy the first team made me and how depressed the second team did. The simple implication is Gatland will show bias to Welsh players he knows and that is the biggest worry. He has to pick on form, but I just don't trust him.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Random thoughts following the Crusader game.

i) Watson has firmly stuck his hand up to be in the 23 and is the main talking point and positive of the match (outside of the Farrell / Sexton combination and the performance of the pack), showing ability at wing and fullback and making him a valuable squad player. Form is important but getting poked in the eye is hardly Hogg's fault. I'd still have Liam Williams ahead of Watson at fullback, but I'd say Watson must surely have comfortably jumped Halfpenny (I know he won't have in Gatland's eyes). Liam Williams must be starting to feel a bit of pressure though. Fantastic at fullback, good at wing, but he's had a lot of game time and not done a lot with it. I'd also put Watson, North and Seymour as my top three starting wing options.

ii) Teo is an option at 12 as there isn't great options beyond the Sexton / Farrell tandem which must surely be the preference. I'd put Teo ahead of Henshaw at the moment as Henshaw has not impressed me for club or country this season after a great 2016. Henshaw / Davies would in theory be my preferred centre combination in terms of defence, distribution and athleticism, so hopefully Henshaw can do well mid-week and stick his hand up for selection. Alex Dunbar will be quite aggreived watching all this on the TV though, posters' comments before the game about Teo's distribution appear valid to me.

iii) The Lions deserve credit for creating chances, but it was screaming out for some Scotsmen from 10-15. In the last three games, the Lions have scored 13, 16 and 12 points if I'm not mistaken. That is abysmal and unacceptable even if they were playing the likes of NZ and Australia, never mind against club sides. As per my repetitive boring point, the Scots get the least quality ball in the opponents 22 out of the Home Nations due to their pack, but they score comparable, or more points, than Ireland and Wales. In the last two years I'd argue that the Scots consistently convert a higher proportion of their opportunities than the Welsh, Irish or English options. The failure to select Scottish options from 10-15 for the squad and for the starting XV will be the single greatest contributing factor to a 3-0 series loss, as the Lions will get loads of good possession against the ABs, but will squander it.