NZ vs Wales - June 2016

[first5eight]

I think he will definitely be in the mix and make the squad. Probably one game off the bench and depending on how he goes one start. I think this year and over the next few years we are going to see a shoot out between Cruden v Sopoaga for the starting 10 spot and Barrett v Mckenzie for the bench utility. A bit of an embarrassment of riches really. Agree with the sentiment re Mckenzie, its very rare when a rookie comes in and looks an absolute class above everyone else. If he continues on this trajectory who knows how good and how far he could go.

 

[saulan]

I think he will definitely be in the mix and make the squad. Probably one game off the bench and depending on how he goes one start. I think this year and over the next few years we are going to see a shoot out between Cruden v Sopoaga for the starting 10 spot and Barrett v Mckenzie for the bench utility. A bit of an embarrassment of riches really. Agree with the sentiment re Mckenzie, its very rare when a rookie comes in and looks an absolute class above everyone else. If he continues on this trajectory who knows how good and how far he could go.

Yea, you guys are really in a great position depth wise and have some amazing backs coming through. As for us? Well... we broke all our flyhalves this year, we only really have one left unharmed (although at least one broken one in Lambie is back).

In terms of this series, I think it is going to be an exceptionally tough one for Wales. This NZ team is meant to be somewhat of a rebuild, but if they continue their current Super Rugby form, we may be looking at one of their strongest teams.

 

[GoTheNaki]

I don't understand the kiwis here choosing Crotty over Ngatai...? Are you guys in another country where you cannot see Super Rugby? Crotty doesn't even start at the Crusaders, and that's only the first basic fact.

Ngatai has by far, and away, been THE best 12 in New Zealand, and probably Super Rugby this year. His vision in the number 12 jersey compared to other potential AB jersey wearers has been FAR superior, his territorial kicking has been second-to-none, his play-making... Has also been second-to-none. I don't get where these "Crotty" suggestions even come from, if you are indeed watching Super Rugby this year... I'm baffled.

Also, did everyone not based in New Zealand see the stats of Sam Cane vs Ardie Savea? I'm trying to find it for you, but Savea was smashing Cane at practically everything.

This wasn't the graphic that I was looking for, it happened maybe on "The Breakdown", but I'm not sure. These don't tell all. But considering Cane is meant to be an "absolute definite". Well...

Stats accessible here: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby/statscentre.cfm?

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I don't understand the kiwis here choosing Crotty over Ngatai...? Are you guys in another country where you cannot see Super Rugby? Crotty doesn't even start at the Crusaders, and that's only the first basic fact.

Do you include Hansen in this? He's already dropped hints that Crotty-Fekitoa will start as the AB centre pairing in the 1st test v Wales.



http://www.lionsrugby.com/news/hans...oa-for-all-blacks-midfield-14265#.Vz232Jb2YRx

"There's no doubt they spent a lot of time together and gave us a powerful combination," Hansen told the Sunday Star Times of the former Wellington duo's international pairing.

"It's going to be difficult to find ready-made people but we still have Malakai and Ryan, both have been around a bit.

"Malakai has had plenty of opportunity to grow and mature and it's going to be exciting to see how he goes now he's going to be one of the top dogs.

"Every time Ryan Crotty has played for the All Blacks he's been outstanding. He's a player in the Conrad Smith mould. He's not X-factor but he's certainly reliable."

 

[TobesHodges]

It's pretty obvious the number 6 jersey is up for grabs, everyone talking about Dixon, but Taufua has had a stellar season and back end of last season.. Should he be in consideration as well? If Kaino gets the 6, I'd be very surprised..

 

[nzlizard]

Will be Kaino for the 1st test I reckon, Hansen will play his loyalty card as he does at the start of the test year, not too many bolters, and given McCaw and Messam are gone he will play people he knows stand up in Black.

Look at Nonu, for a 2-3 year period played **** super and still got an AB's jersey then carved up every time.

 

[nickdnz]

Yeah I'd be shocked if Kaino wasn't retained at 6 tbh. Losing an awful lot of depth and we need the experience.

For the long term I still like Akira Ioane.

 

[first5eight]

Yep Akira Ioane will be a star. I could easily see a Cane, Ioane, Savea loose forward trio in the future + Luatua on the bench to cover 6/8. Then there's Dixon, Shields, Tafua all in the wings. So much depth. I'd love to see a probables v possibles brought back or even North v South game, they could play even play for the Henry Hanson Cup or something

 

[nzlizard]

You feel like we have so many options at some positions that you could easily have a possibles vs probables, esp since we have a few positions up for grabs.

Its really only centers that I feel are not over abundant.

 

[Ludders93]

I bet on rugby for a living (with mixed results!) and the June Internationals I find are a good opportunity to try and win some money.
I watch Super Rugby every week, and I'm aware how impressive the Kiwi franchises have been this year. There's some serious talent coming through. And another 4 year of near world wide domination is probably on the cards.
Having said that I don't think this Wales side will roll over in the first two tests in Auckland and Wellington. Gatland's a shrewd coach, with a point to prove before he takes the Lions to NZ. In addition NZ tend to start their year's internationally a little slow, last year they struggled away in Samoa if I recall, and two years ago didn't put away a 2nd string England team in the first two tests. If there's any time to play the All-Blacks it's then.

New Zealand start the first test as 18/19 point favourites. I'd say that's probably a bit too much in my view. Wales have an established team, and a deadly goal-kicker in Biggar. Yes New Zealand could cut loose and rack up a big score, but I'd say a 14/15 point handicap is probably more accurate. Having said that, betting wise I think I'm going to wait until the third test to place a big bet.

I'm Willing to wager several thousand pounds that NZ beat Wales by 20+ points in the third test in Dunedin. Bookmakers and northern hemisphere commentators haven't latched on to how much more difficult playing there is than other grounds in NZ. With it being the 3rd and final test for Wales, after a long tiring season, and NZ will start to get some continuity with their final test before the rugby championship, Wales will get a hiding. I suspect I'll get something like 6/5 on NZ to win by 20+ points, and I think that's a great price. It's worth watching the first two test of course, seeing how the teams line up, any injuries etc. But my read is the first two tests will be relatively close with the All Blacks winning by about 15 points, but the final test could be a crushing victory.

Any thoughts on anything I've said or the series in general are appreciated. It's a quality forum with quality information and opinions. J

 

[Thingimubob]

I bet on rugby for a living (with mixed results!) and the June Internationals I find are a good opportunity to try and win some money.
I watch Super Rugby every week, and I'm aware how impressive the Kiwi franchises have been this year. There's some serious talent coming through. And another 4 year of near world wide domination is probably on the cards.
Having said that I don't think this Wales side will roll over in the first two tests in Auckland and Wellington. Gatland's a shrewd coach, with a point to prove before he takes the Lions to NZ. In addition NZ tend to start their year's internationally a little slow, last year they struggled away in Samoa if I recall, and two years ago didn't put away a 2nd string England team in the first two tests. If there's any time to play the All-Blacks it's then.

New Zealand start the first test as 18/19 point favourites. I'd say that's probably a bit too much in my view. Wales have an established team, and a deadly goal-kicker in Biggar. Yes New Zealand could cut loose and rack up a big score, but I'd say a 14/15 point handicap is probably more accurate. Having said that, betting wise I think I'm going to wait until the third test to place a big bet.

I'm Willing to wager several thousand pounds that NZ beat Wales by 20+ points in the third test in Dunedin. Bookmakers and northern hemisphere commentators haven't latched on to how much more difficult playing there is than other grounds in NZ. With it being the 3rd and final test for Wales, after a long tiring season, and NZ will start to get some continuity with their final test before the rugby championship, Wales will get a hiding. I suspect I'll get something like 6/5 on NZ to win by 20+ points, and I think that's a great price. It's worth watching the first two test of course, seeing how the teams line up, any injuries etc. But my read is the first two tests will be relatively close with the All Blacks winning by about 15 points, but the final test could be a crushing victory.

Any thoughts on anything I've said or the series in general are appreciated. It's a quality forum with quality information and opinions. J

Out of interest, what kind of markets do you focus on when you bet? I really like the Total Points one personally, though have been messed up in recent weeks by games I assumed would be high scoring and weren't!

Just to let you know, Wales have been notoriously slow starters in tours / competitions under Gatland. For example, last tour we did in 2014 we got hammered in the first test vs SA, then were a completely different team in the second test in Nelspruit. Would have won had Liam Williams not been so bloody daft in the last min...

Same happened in the 3 test tour to Australia in 2012. Didn't turn up for the first 40 in the first test, were 17 - 3 down shortly after half time, lost 27 - 19. End up losing 25 - 23 and 20 -19 (both to last min penalties) in the last two tests after much much improved performances.

Hoping the warm up against England can get the kinks out of our system anyway! I still think this is the best chance for a win on NZ soil in a very very long time, but I know to be realistic after what I've seen of the NZ super rugby sides. Even a little bit worried about getting turned over in the midweek match against the Chiefs!

 

[Ludders93]

Hi Mate, Cheers for the reply.

My favourite markets are winning margin (1-12) or 13+ but I also like to bet on Total points or Total tries like yourself.

When the weather's awful, sometimes one or two bookmakers who haven't realised still offer 20/1 on No tries in the match. For example 2 weeks back I got 16/1 on there being no tries in Saracens vs Racing Metro. I was in the ground in Lyon, and it was tipping it down. Two of the most pragmatic sides as it is, it was always going to be a kicking match. So I ended up making £900 on that.

I've had some bad losses too, I bet on NZ to beat Wales by 1-12 points in November 2014. The bet looked good as the game was close, but NZ scored 3 tries late on to win easily. I was gutted, that was my biggest ever stake on rugby and I got 2/1 odds. I lost £5,000 and would've won £15,000.

You make a good point about Wales being slow starters, I noticed it even this six nations in the first half in Dublin. And you're right about the 2012 and 2014 summer tours. I think Wales could win a test match, perhaps the second game in Wellington. Dan Biggar's goalkicking is immaculate, and I thought Wales showed in patches in the 6 nations that they're the best northern hemisphere side.

But Wales like every northern hemisphere side will get one drubbing in New Zealand. It's almost inevitable given the astonishing talent NZ have in their back line.

Northern Hemisphere sides playing NZ games fall into two categories. The first is when the game is stop-start, NZ don't 100% click and the Northern Hemisphere side stays close on the scoreboard thanks to penalties. That's what I was hoping would happen in 2014 and it did for 70 minutes but sadly the last 10 ruined my plans!

The other game is when New Zealand start fast, they get up 10 points early on. Then the Northern Hemisphere side are forced to chase the game, up the tempo and play with width. They kick penalties to the corner instead of for goal. And NZ thrive off that, and end up winning by 30+ points. This will happen in one test this June, I think it'll be the third test in Dunedin.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

My predicted 32 man squad:

Hookers - Coles, Taylor, Harris
Props - Moody, Crockett, Franks, Faumuina,
Locks - Retallick, Whitelock, Tuipulotu, Barrett
Loose Forwards - Kaino, Cane, Read, Savea, Taufua, Squire
Halfbacks - Smith, Weber, Perenara
First Fives - Cruden, Barrett, Sopoaga, McKenzie
Centres - Crotty, Fekitoa, Ngatai, Tamanivalu
Outside Backs - Dagg, Smith, Naholo, Lowe

Potentially see McKenzie dropped for another prop, but I'm not sure who at this point. Could see Seu as a potential bolter too.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Picking 4 props is unlikely to happen in a 3 test series; although I can see the struggle to replace Ben Franks who could play both sides. And 4 first 5 eighths is overkill. Mckenzie would be better off playing a full game for the Chiefs v Wales at fly-half.

Seu for the Chiefs has impressed me, and would be a Bolter, but I think Dixon covers all 3 back row positions (would replace Messam), Luatua covering lock,6/8 may be ahead of Seu. I would put Blade Thompson in there as a utility lock/back row option.

And no Julian Savea? He's not played great for the Canes this year, but surely has enough credit in the bank to be picked with his strike rate at international level.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Picking 4 props is unlikely to happen in a 3 test series; although I can see the struggle to replace Ben Franks who could play both sides. And 4 first 5 eighths is overkill. Mckenzie would be better off playing a full game for the Chiefs v Wales at fly-half.

Seu for the Chiefs has impressed me, and would be a Bolter, but I think Dixon covers all 3 back row positions (would replace Messam), Luatua covering lock,6/8 may be ahead of Seu. I would put Blade Thompson in there as a utility lock/back row option.

And no Julian Savea? He's not played great for the Canes this year, but surely has enough credit in the bank to be picked with his strike rate at international level.

Ah yep knew I'd missed a couple of people.

Drop McKenzie for another prop - Tu'ungafasi potentially, though he's only being used off the bench for the Blues. Laulala would be the obvious candidate were he fit, and Manu wouldn't be far off. I think Graham and Goodes (to a lesser extent) are both possibilities too.

And drop Dagg for Savea.

 

[Regan]

I don't understand the kiwis here choosing Crotty over Ngatai...? Are you guys in another country where you cannot see Super Rugby? Crotty doesn't even start at the Crusaders, and that's only the first basic fact.

Ngatai has by far, and away, been THE best 12 in New Zealand, and probably Super Rugby this year. His vision in the number 12 jersey compared to other potential AB jersey wearers has been FAR superior, his territorial kicking has been second-to-none, his play-making... Has also been second-to-none. I don't get where these "Crotty" suggestions even come from, if you are indeed watching Super Rugby this year... I'm baffled.

Also, did everyone not based in New Zealand see the stats of Sam Cane vs Ardie Savea? I'm trying to find it for you, but Savea was smashing Cane at practically everything.

This wasn't the graphic that I was looking for, it happened maybe on "The Breakdown", but I'm not sure. These don't tell all. But considering Cane is meant to be an "absolute definite". Well...

Stats accessible here: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby/statscentre.cfm?

It's more the fact that Crotty/ Fekitoa have proven themselves in the black jersey. Ngatai - not so much. It's the safe option really with Ngatai proving himself off the bench in the 1st game. A lot depends on his concussion problems too. I agree Ngatai is our best centre atm but it's inevitable how Hansen will play him.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Well I got that completely wrong!

Tu'ungafasi, Harris, Dixon, Savea, Squire, Romano, Kerr-Barlow, Sopoaga, McKenzie, Ngatai, Tamanivalu, Dagg are the interesting selections (and Tom Franklin and TJP as injury cover).

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Forwards

Hookers
Dane Coles (Wellington, 36 Tests)
Codie Taylor (Canterbury, four Tests)
Nathan Harris (Bay of Plenty, two Tests)

Props
Wyatt Crockett (Canterbury, 45 Tests)
Charlie Faumuina (Auckland, 33 Tests)
Owen Franks (Canterbury, 78 Tests)
Joe Moody (Canterbury, 11 Tests)
Ofa Tu'ungafasi (Auckland, new cap)

Locks
Brodie Retallick (Hawke's Bay, 47 Tests)
Luke Romano (Canterbury, 22 Tests)
Patrick Tuipulotu (Auckland, seven Tests)
Samuel Whitelock (Canterbury, 73 Tests)

Loose Forwards
Sam Cane (Bay of Plenty, 31 Tests)
Elliot Dixon (Southland, new cap)
Jerome Kaino (Auckland, 67 Tests)
Kieran Read, captain (Canterbury, 84 Tests)
Ardie Savea (Wellington, new cap)
Liam Squire (Tasman, new cap)

Backs

Halfbacks
Tawera Kerr–Barlow (Waikato, 20 Tests)
Aaron Smith (Manawatu, 47 Tests)

First five–eighths
Beauden Barrett (Taranaki, 36 Tests)
Aaron Cruden (Manawatu, 37 Tests)
Lima Sopoaga (Southland, one Test)

Midfielders
Ryan Crotty (Canterbury, 15 Tests)
Malakai Fekitoa (Auckland, 13 Tests)
Charlie Ngatai (Taranaki, one Test)
Seta Tamanivalu (Taranaki, new cap)

Outside backs
Israel Dagg (Hawke's Bay, 49 Tests)
Damian McKenzie (Waikato, new cap)
Waisake Naholo (Taranaki, three Tests)
Julian Savea (Wellington, 41 Tests)
Ben Smith (Otago, 48 Tests)

 

[ratsapprentice]

Jheez... looking at that really shows how great the turnover has been.

 

[Bazzy]

Not really any surprises in there, possibly Squire. TKB did move into the No. 2 spot last year playing for the ABs so I am assuming that they are going with the philosophy of not losing your spot while you are injured.

The match day 23 is going to be really interesting with Dagg back. Hope they don't move Ben Smith to the wings, when he is probably the best bloody fullback in the world!