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NZ vs Wales - June 2016

NMS & Naholo have the right wing to fight over. When Nehe is fit at least.

The one most likely to lose a spot to Nehe is Dagg IMO, look at the squad makeup. 4 guys who can cover 15! Nehe can cover 15 as well! Given that Dagg is not the #1 15 anymore then that spot is better used to continue develop Nehe & Mckenzie. And that will also depend on how McKenzie does when he gets a chance. If he sneaks through a few gaps against the welsh and I expect he will, that should be enough to earn continued selection so they can keep developing his game.

Ben Smith is our 15, sure he can play any position from 10-15 to a high standard but he is now our best, most reliable and most experienced back! 15 is the best place for him.

Savea is on the left but his form is inconsistent.

IMO that leaves room for McKenzie to have a go on the left wing.

I think everyone wants to see McKenzie get a run, but it just seems silly and risky to move Ben Smith to accommodate that. IMO you always put your best 15 at 15 and if you need/want to give a guy a run then put him on the wing.

If it turns out that McKenzie's best position is 15 and hes good at test level then Ben Smith wont keep him out forever. There is like a 9 year age gap between them! I still think McKenzie is a good option to take over at 10 at some stage. We dont see him at 10 much because the Chiefs have Cruden. But the few games he has had there he has been very good. one of the games he had was mind blowing, I actually think given the chance he would quickly become a better 10 than Cruden. But it makes sense for the chiefs to have Cruden at 10 and McKenzie at 15 to utilize their talent.


Agreed on Mckenzie at 10. He's got more of a chance there than at 15. At 15 teams will target him because of his height at int level and he simply wont fluke his way through defences like he has in super. Cruden is not exactly the most robust 10 we've ever had, Barrett is a flake and Sopoanga is sporadic (but showing signs of maturing).

Ben Smith is co captain. He's locked in until he decides to retire imo. As A Smith once said Ben is the best rugby player he's ever played with. And he's clearly the best FB in the world nobody else even comes close.
 
Agreed on Mckenzie at 10. He's got more of a chance there than at 15. At 15 teams will target him because of his height at int level and he simply wont fluke his way through defences like he has in super. Cruden is not exactly the most robust 10 we've ever had, Barrett is a flake and Sopoanga is sporadic (but showing signs of maturing).

Ben Smith is co captain. He's locked in until he decides to retire imo. As A Smith once said Ben is the best rugby player he's ever played with. And he's clearly the best FB in the world nobody else even comes close.

haha wow...

So Mckenzie is a fluke, Cruden isn't robust, barrett is a flake and Sopoaga(i know I spell it wrong sometimes too) is sporadic?

cmon man... McKenzie is topping some of the most important attacking stats in super rugby and that doesn't happen by fluke. I do think he is going to have to learn some patients and learn vary his attacking and distribution game a bit more more at test level where gaps will be harder to find and getting isolated or conceding turnovers is more heavily punished. Hes so good at switching to attack, the All Blacks can really use him as the go to man for turnovers. Get a turnover or force a poor kick and McKenzie will put opposition teams to the sword.

No Cruden isn't the toughest guy in the line but he has some serious positives to his game. hes technically very good and he has a fantastic eye for the game. maybe the best we have had in that area in the modern era. he does have some negatives to his game though. Hes had both knees done now and it will likely always be an issue, he doesn't have a long kicking game, either at goal or around the field. At the chiefs he has Ngatai, Lowe and Mckenzie to go to for long kicks. yeah hes small, hes very good defender technically but he will always be a direct target for ball runners.

Barrett is no flake, he had a period were he was being compared to carter too much and expected to be Dan Carter. I think because Cruden is more unique he was more able to play his own game where Barrett was expected to be like Dan (Donald suffered the same thing IMO). Barrett is like Carter in that he is a true first receiver, Cruden isn't. Cruden often doesn't receive until he sees an opportunity. Barrett has turned himself into maybe the best defending 10 we have and hes also probably the best 10 we have for attacking the line, hes no the playmaker Cruden is but no one but Cruden is that good. Barretts goal kicking stats are down a bit from where they need to be but he does play half his games at the caketin. Arguably one of the hardest grounds around for kicking.

Its a shame Ngatai is injured, I think he would pair really well at 12 with Barrett.

Sopoaga strikes me as a very good 10 for when we are going forward. Stronger runner than Cruden and his goal kicking has been pretty good. hes not so good going backwards and his defense isn't as good as the other options. Its not always the role of a 10 to be a great defender. Carter is arguably the best tackler the game has seen at first five so we have been a bit blessed there for a while. We would have to hide him a bit but hes so good going forwards and has a good established combination with the likes of the Smiths and Naholo.

To change the subject....

From a welsh point of view they really need to attack this first test. The AB's are most vulnerable for the first test each year and the first test in any series. They are also a bit vulnerable for the last test of the year as well at the end of the year due to fatigue. But this is a real chance for Wales, If I was their coach I would be going all out for this first test. No building into the series or conservative start. Focus on yourselves, come up with a game plan that will surprise the AB's and give the first test everything. Forget its a series, pretend this first test is the WC final. You haven't beaten the AB's since the 50's? The first test is your best chance to change that. I have a feeling whatever happens first test the AB's will improve a lot more for the 2nd and 3rd.

This is the AB's first test Without McCaw, Carter, Nonu, Smith, Mealamu and Woodcock. Plus the likes of Whitelock(injured), SBW & Messam(7's) aren't there either, thats like ~1000 test caps of experience missing from last years team... This is the biggest turnover from one season to the next that a Modern AB squad has had. You need to take this opportunity very seriously.
 
My predicted teams:
NZ

1. Crockett
2. Coles
3. Franks
4. Retallick
5. Whitelock
6. Kaino
7. Sam Cane
8. Read
9. Smith
10. Cruden
11. Savea
12. Crotty
13. Fekitoa
14. Naholo
15. Smith

16. Taylor
17. Moody
18. Faumuina
19. Dixon
20. Savea
21. Kerr-Barlow
22. Barrett
23. Dagg

Wales

1. Evans
2. Baldwin
3. Lee
4. Charteris
5. Wyn Jones
6. Moriarty (Assuming Lydiate is out)
7. Warburton (Assuming he's fit)
8. Faletau
9. Webb
10. Biggar
11. Amos
12. Roberts
13. Davies
14. North
15. Williams

16. Owens
17. Jenkins
18. Francis
19. Ball
20. King
21. Davies
22. Priestland
23. Williams
 
Do Kiwis here think Crockett will start over Moody?

As for Wales -

- Lydiate is definitely out; so looks like Moriaty will definitely start based on the England v Wales game.

- Surely Anscombe will be on he bench at the very least. If not for his experience of NZ rugby.
 
i would prefer moody to start over crockett but neither choice would surprise me
 
haha wow...

So Mckenzie is a fluke, Cruden isn't robust, barrett is a flake and Sopoaga(i know I spell it wrong sometimes too) is sporadic?

So be fair, that isn't what austingr said...

"At 15 teams will target him because of his height at int level and he simply wont fluke his way through defences like he has in super."

As I aid earlier, he has the potential, but the kinds of things he's been doing at SR level will not be easy to achieve at the next level up. There simply will not be as much time or space as he has been enjoying.
 
The other interesting thing with McKenzie is that since Ngatai got injured he has struggled as swell, he made it look easy when the Chiefs were going forward.

Now the Chiefs are not going forward so much, he has struggled, whereas Ben Smith always looks good regardless of which way the Highlanders are going.

He needs to learn to make a difference no matter how the Chiefa are going, I believe he will, it will just take time.
 
that is kinda nit picking with Mckenzie I guess its natural to do that when considering how he will go at the next level. The whole chiefs backline doesn't look as good when Ngatai isn't there but the same can be said about a lot of other players and setups in other teams around key players. When the chiefs have been at their best this season hes really been the combinatin of Cruden, Ngatai and McKenzie working together. I think if you would have taken any one of those guys out things would have broken down. Do we really know how good Sapoaga is? I mean he plays the vast majority of his rugby outside the best halfback in the world... Kinda gives him an unfair advantage over the other 10's...

Mckenzie is very good in those broken play situations, quick turnovers, fractured defenses, when gaps open up he will run riot. But it wont always be his job to create those situations, that's a team effort. Yes the opportunities wont come as often at test level. But when the do come they mean a lot more. So even if he creates just 1-2 big moments in a game where some games at super level he seems to create them constantly. He will still be a success, importantly while he still has some things to work on hes a very good tackler, kicker and under the high ball. So he has the skillset to go with the attacking game he has.

Maybe its worth looking at McKenzie as a combination player. I think some players you kinda need to select players around them specifically to help take advantage of their strengths and/or help protect their weaknesses. It may not always be the case, it is early days for him.
 
No doubt, Wales need to get amongst the AB's early in the first test and try to knock them off their stride as quickly as possible.
Thats their best chance to get a victory and put the skids on the new AB's to try and secure a test series victory.
By the third test the Black machine will be in full swing and it's going to be a seriously uphill struggle for the Dragons.
 
that is kinda nit picking with Mckenzie I guess its natural to do that when considering how he will go at the next level. The whole chiefs backline doesn't look as good when Ngatai isn't there but the same can be said about a lot of other players and setups in other teams around key players. When the chiefs have been at their best this season hes really been the combinatin of Cruden, Ngatai and McKenzie working together. I think if you would have taken any one of those guys out things would have broken down. Do we really know how good Sapoaga is? I mean he plays the vast majority of his rugby outside the best halfback in the world... Kinda gives him an unfair advantage over the other 10's...

Mckenzie is very good in those broken play situations, quick turnovers, fractured defenses, when gaps open up he will run riot. But it wont always be his job to create those situations, that's a team effort. Yes the opportunities wont come as often at test level. But when the do come they mean a lot more. So even if he creates just 1-2 big moments in a game where some games at super level he seems to create them constantly. He will still be a success, importantly while he still has some things to work on hes a very good tackler, kicker and under the high ball. So he has the skillset to go with the attacking game he has.

Maybe its worth looking at McKenzie as a combination player. I think some players you kinda need to select players around them specifically to help take advantage of their strengths and/or help protect their weaknesses. It may not always be the case, it is early days for him.

He would still be playing outside the best half back in the world for the ABs, and has a better partnership with him than the other 2 do. IMO Barrett has no chance of starting, he'll always be kept as an impact sub with Crudes or Sopoaga as a starter. I'd go with Sopoaga, I think he's been playing better and as I previously said, has a strong partnership with Smith. He's also stronger defensively in the 10 channel due to his extra size and strength, yet can still match and I would say beat Cruden skill wise. Cruden does have more experience though so it's going to be very interesting seeing who Hansen opts for.

Going back to what I said about Barrett, he's who Mackenzie needs to compete with. I can't see Mackenzie starting for quite a while so his best bet is to compete with Barrett as a 10/15 impact sub.
 
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I think this first test could be closer than people are thinking.

Wales are pretty much at full strength and New Zealand often start the year quite slowly. (Samoa last year, England 2014) etc

The bookies are making New Zealand 20 point favourites. That's about 7 points too many in my view.

Dan Biggar will kick penalties to keep the game close and even though New Zealand will end up winning the game, and probably outscore Wales by 3 or 4 tries to 1, but the game will end up being something like 33-18 to New Zealand. Good weather I see forecasted. I also hope Cruden starts if I bet on Wales covering the spread because his goal-kicking is awful.

L
 
I think this first test could be closer than people are thinking.

Wales are pretty much at full strength and New Zealand often start the year quite slowly. (Samoa last year, England 2014) etc

The bookies are making New Zealand 20 point favourites. That's about 7 points too many in my view.

Dan Biggar will kick penalties to keep the game close and even though New Zealand will end up winning the game, and probably outscore Wales by 3 or 4 tries to 1, but the game will end up being something like 33-18 to New Zealand. Good weather I see forecasted. I also hope Cruden starts if I bet on Wales covering the spread because his goal-kicking is awful.

L

I had reasonable confidence that Wales could get close in the first test but that game against England is the worst I've seen them play in a while. But Wales never seem to turn up at the first game so hopefully they will have got their act together by the weekend or it could be a massacre.
 
I had reasonable confidence that Wales could get close in the first test but that game against England is the worst I've seen them play in a while. But Wales never seem to turn up at the first game so hopefully they will have got their act together by the weekend or it could be a massacre.

Unless Wales pull out a miracle based on the last game against England the chances of them winning are about as high as the ankle socks of a particularly small beetle.
 
I'd go with Sopoaga, I think he's been playing better and as I previously said, has a strong partnership with Smith. He's also stronger defensively in the 10 channel due to his extra size and strength, yet can still match and I would say beat Cruden skill wise. Cruden does have more experience though so it's going to be very interesting seeing who Hansen opts for.

I disagree with most of this. Cruden has played pretty much as often with Aaron Smith for Manawatu and the ABs as Sopoaga. I think Cruden is more skillful and has better management. Sopoaga has a better long kicking game and goal kicking game - but thats about it.
 

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