I like the NZ squad that has been named, Squire is a bit of a surprise but there was always going to be 1 bolter loose forward selected knowing that McCaw, Messam and Vito have left 3 new spots to fill.
Ofa Tu'ungafasi - no surprise there really hes been around the squad for a while being "groomed" you would say.
Tom Franklin - 5th lock covering whitelock, may not get gametime but the AB selectors do try and give players a test cap/give everyone gametime if they make a squad.
Loose forward has had a lot of depth in NZ over the last 8 years or so, ability is one thing but getting experience has also been really important for the loosies we have had as well.
Dixon and Savea look like they should be long term test prospects.
Dixon just looks like a perfect prospect. 2-3 years ago we were all watching Luatua, whitelock & Shields in particular as the next big prospects at 6-8 and Dixon has basically emerged and overtaken them all at the right time to earn this selection. The guy ticks all the boxes, huge workrate, good accuracy and just enough x factor in his game as well. he just really needs to do what hes been doing and keep evolving.
Good to see Dagg back, his super rugby for has been good and consistant. Its hard to see where he fits in though. I actually think he would be a good option at 11 with Saveas form questionable.
Savea is a ridiculous raw talent and still very young. He probably needs to develop a bit in the mental/composure part of the game. A lot of his x factor comes from pure determination so that's not surprising.
Squire is an interesting choice, again hes come up under the radar and overtaken Luatua, whitelock & Shields. He probably is a bit of a surprise selection and its unknown what his role in the squad is going to be one would say he hasn't even properly established himself as a sure starter at the highlanders. Hes got some real physicality to his game and the selectors have obviously picked him for that reason, IMO thats for sure the reason why hes there over Luatua. Genuinely big, hits genuinely hard, surprisingly fast still quite young. Probably seen primarily a #8 for the AB's.
I expect Sam cane to start, Cane is that one guy that goes to those Dark Places on the rugby field and does the work McCaw has done for all these years. Puts his body where most 7s dont. He's there in the way at every ruck like McCaw. Cane deserves more credit than he gets. And heck you would think he was 30 for all he has done. At only 24 we have yet to see his best.
The focus has to be on getting these guys to mature and learn test footy quickly. Good thing we have Kaino, Read & Cane - all experienced, all actually super rugby captains and leaders in the All Blacks.
Seta Tamanivalu is a bit of a surprise selection. A few days ago I actually thought to myself he had a good chance but I didn't expect to see him selected. I honestly think they should have selected Moala. Tamanivalu was the 2014 ITM cup player of the year, Moala was the 2015 ITM cup player of the year I think. Moala is a much better player than he has shown for the blues who have stuttered a bit this year compared to other NZ teams. Blues probably have the least regarded 10 in NZ super rugby right now. I think given the chance Moala would do a very good job for the AB's. Hes one guy who could knock the stuffing out of Jamie Roberts given the chance. Tamanivalu has had the advantage of playing outside Weber, Aaron Cruden and Charlie Ngatai - Ngatai is arguably NZ's form Midfielder this year. and its safe to say that the chiefs midfield hasn't been as good with Ngatai out injured, he makes a huge difference.
Ngatai - the form midfielder in NZ, hes been on fire. Very smart player, makes good decisions. But hes also been very impressive physically, showing really good speed and busting tackles. really impressive kicking game. Hes had some injury/head knock issues though.
I actually think there will be a fair bit of change in the mid field space for a while in this post Nonu/Smith Era. many players will get chances, I think Moala will get another chance at some stage. Its hard to tell just how good a player is at test level, they need a fair go at it. Heck Nonu and Smith were both in and out for a long time before they became established. Of all the options to me Ngatai looks the goods - the guy to really look to build a midfield around. The only concern being fairly regular appearances on the injury list.
Damien McKenzie - This guy is the talk of the town as far as I'm concerned. He seems like that once in a generation player, ridiculous skills and vision, awesome speed and elusiveness he's always in the game, he forces himself into games and looks to all out attack every time he touches the ball. Hes a fearless defender, awesome under the high ball. useful goal kicker, actually really good kicking around the field as well. Much longer kick than Cruden. As far as negatives go, he's tiny for a modern day rugby player. Hes halfback size, in fact hes probably smaller than most halfbacks, like 80kg. But that's also why hes so good, he runs circles around all the 100kg guys. The big question is where does he fit into the AB's. I guess firstly hes just turned 21 so he is a long term selection and project player I guess. His form demands selection, mostly been playing 15 and we have Ben Smith whos basically the best 15 in the world. His best position is 10 but he hasn't been playing 10 for the chiefs! I'd love to see McKenzie start a test at 11. I'm seriously against the idea of Moving Ben Smith to wing again. IMO 15 is where you put your best and most experienced guy, and that is Ben Smith by default. With Smith at 15 and Naholo at 14, slot McKenzie in 11 that would be a form back 3. Man how good would it be to see those 3 working together. And where does he fit on the bench when Barrett has been huge there for a long time now.
Julian Savea has been off the boil. As Ive said for a while now I think we have seen Julian's best, he came good for a couple of WC games but generally hes lacked consistency. We produce so many good wingers we dont need to keep holding onto guys who are in and out of form or not performing on a regular basis. I think over the next few years he will drop down the pecking order. hes got bigger and lost some of his speed, I'd like to see him lean up and try hard to maintain his speed but I dont think thats going to happen.
Unlucky:
Matt Todd - in an alternate universe this guy could have been an All Black legend. his game is well suited to test rugby, hes built like an outhouse. He scores tries. He's been given a chance at test level and passed with flying colors. He'd probably make the test squad for every other nation on the planet. I think the selectors know if there is an injury and a 7 is needed that Matt Todd can come in at the drop of a hat and be superb and match or better any opposition 7 in the world. Its an amazing safety net to have. I think a big factor is that hes 28 now, not "old" by any means but Sam Cane is STILL ONLY 24! Matt Todd is probably a guy whos carrier has been affected by the existence of McCaw more than the rest.
Luatua - lots of energy and ability on the field and very versatile considering he can cover 6,8 and lock but he seems to have lost out to Squire/Dixon and the point of difference seems to be physicality.
Luke Whitelock - overlooked for a long time but hes actually playing really well. Very similar player to Read as well.
Taufua - made good strides I think a lot of people would have picked him ahead of Squire.
You could throw Shields in this category as well.
Lowe - consistant performer, scores trys. unlucky but the reality there is only room for 2 wingers in All Black Squads these days with the position being covered by utility players like Barrett & McKenzie and even Dagg.
Johnny Mcnicholl - A player I'd like to see in the squad, I think hes well suited to test footy. In great form.
Moala - as mentioned, good player. Doesn't have the quality of players around him like the guys who have been selected. Unlucky.
Weber - just seems like a matter of time till hes and all black so why delay... Best actual backup for Smith. I think the selectors like that TKB is a bit different to Smith.
Could go on and on here, huge depth in super rugby right now, some props around that should feel hard done by. Hika Elliot left out again, with Harris being selected ahead of him its fair to say Elliots All Black days are over, doesn't really matter how well he plays. The selectors want young guys to backup Coles.
So who starts?
Maybe the biggest question is who starts at 10? interesting situation. I think peole expect a fit Cruden to be the first choice but super rugby form should actually favour Barrett IMO. Barrett was superb in the head ot head against Cruden. Actually so was Sopoaga.
Goal kicking has been an issue and its safe to assume that all the guys will be working on goal kicking for these tests.
IMO form pecking order: Barrett, Sopoaga, Cruden
Probable pecking order: Cruden, Barrett, Sopoaga
But its close, they are all good, all worthy. Great depth.
Barretts ability to cause havoc off the bench will count against his aspirations of starting at 10. But you would have to say he has been just as important coming off the bench in the last 20-30min as anyone starting. He constantly wins us test matches in those last 20min by covering fullback or wing and coming into first receiver and breaking the game open with his all out speed and nose for the gap. To his credit when he starts hes also really dangerous before half time.
Probible selection:
1, moody
2, coles
3, franks
4, Retalick
5, Romano (whitelock injured?)
6, kaino
7, Cane
8, Read
9, Smith
10, Cruden
11, Savea
12, Crotty
13, Fekitoa
14, Naholo
15, Ben Smith
16, Taylor
17, Crockett
18, faumaina
19, Tuipulotu
20, Dixon
21, TJP (TKB injured?)
22, Barrett
23, Ngatai
What I want to see:
1, moody
2, coles
3, franks
4, Retalick
5, Tuipulotu
6, Dixon
7, Cane
8, Read
9, Smith
10, Barrett
11, McKenzie
12, Ngatai
13, Tamanivalu
14, Naholo
15, Ben Smith
16, Taylor
17, Crockett
18, faumaina
19, Romano
20, Savea
21, TJP (TKB injured?)
22, Sopoaga
23, Fekitoa