Dan Carter's back up for the EOY Tour

[TRF Mr Fish]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/...ng-candidates-to-understudy-Dan-Carter-in-ABs

If it was poker Graham Henry would be struggling to contain that upside down smile. Four tens shapes as a winning hand no matter what way you look at it.

That's the situation now presented the All Blacks coach as he sifts through his options for the end-of-year tour and in particular just who he'll take to back up the peerless Dan Carter.

Believe it or not he now has four reasonable options. Four No 10s who all present genuine claims to be the Carter understudy on tour - an assignment that may take on more weight depending on the fitness of the great one for the opener in Hong Kong against the Wallabies.

There are the youngsters, of course, Aaron Cruden and Colin Slade, and to their names we can now officially add a couple of more tested campaigners in Stephen Donald and Mike Delany. All four are making some fairly impressive claims through the latter stages of the ITM Cup.

In fact over the latest round it's fair to say that all four stepped up and belted it out of the park. Delany remains a pivotal figure in an improving Bay of Plenty side and guided them splendidly to a notable victory over Wellington; Donald had his best performance in an age as he tormented Northland in Whangarei; Slade was all class for the Cantabs in Dunedin; and then Cruden stepped up to showcase his unique skills as the Turbos charged home against Tasman.

Talk about your famine to a feast as well. Not so long ago - in Sydney at the end of the Tri-Nations to be exact - many of us were lamenting the sad state of affairs around the five-eighth position in the All Blacks.

With Carter out getting that sore knee of his tidied up, rookie Cruden was handed his first test start and Slade was promoted for his first appearance at test level.

Well, Cruden by and large struggled, especially in what you would call some of the core roles of the position. Not to put too fine a point on it, he kicked like a girl scout with a sore leg.

Slade was better in relief. A lot better. The young Cantab came in for the final quarter and seemed to settle things down nicely with his well-rounded, if less flamboyant, game. To be fair, he did benefit from his team-mates finally awakening from their slumber.

What that test, which the All Blacks eventually won by the barest of margins, did do was highlight just how vulnerable the New Zealanders were in behind the best No 10 in the game.

Cruden is undoubtedly a talent, and there are few No 10s in the game better on their feet than this will-o'-the-wisp. But he's also greener than Kermit and if Sydney showed anything it was that the remarkable Manawatu youngster, who's already beaten his greatest foe by shaking off testicular cancer, is still very much a work in progress.

And as solid an operator as Slade appears to be, let's not forget that he's hardly played any significant football as a No 10 and is still finding his own feet in the pivot. To ask either to start a big-time test, like say a World Cup knockout game, would be a serious ask.

But if recent events are any guide, they're at least working hard. Cruden's kicking was a lot sharper on Sunday and it appeared that some much-needed distance had been gained in his clearance. He also scored a quite brilliant try. Slade, too, is looking more and more relaxed running that exciting Canterbury backline, and it's no coincidence that SBW and Robbie Fruean are playing so well outside him.

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But other options are also arising in the form of last year's tourists, Donald and Slade, who are both coming off long-term injury layoffs.

So well are these two now operating that the five-eighths tussle for the tour is shaping as a doozey with Henry seemingly overloaded with options, if not a clear-cut choice.

It's not clear yet whether he'll take two or three five-eighth on the tour - that may depend on Carter's readiness for immediate action - but on pure form there's not a lot between any of the aforementioned quartet.

Cruden and Slade must be the frontrunners, purely because they've been part of the All Blacks squad this year. They're also rightly seen as the future of the All Blacks post-2011.

But Donald and Delany are not exactly long in the tooth themselves and there's something to be said for experience and a cool head under pressure.

Delany, like Cruden, brings a degree of X-factor to the role and he's a deadly goalkicker. He possibly deserves another crack after a disappointing test against Italy last year. Donald appears to be growing in confidence by the week and when at his best is a quality operator. He can also slot 'em from anywhere, as evidenced at the weekend.

Cruden is the kid with the upside and probably the most exciting option from an attacking point of view. And Slade appears to be the most well-rounded of them all, with a polished and precise game and very few weaknesses to speak of.

It's an intriguing selection for Henry. Don't be surprised if he compromises and takes more than one alternative to Carter. And right now the young 'uns might be holding on by the skin of their teeth.

So, if the All Blacks only take one extra first five on the tour to the Northern Hemisphere, who would you prefer?

I'd probably go with Slade, he seems to be better than Cruden, and is a genuine long term option for the All Blacks too.

Of course, Donald and Delany have their merits too.

 

[Darwin]

If I only could take one first-five to back-up Carter, Slade would be my first choice.

 

[Sam Owen]

Slade. Although he did have a mixed game in the weekend and Donald is going reasonably well but yeah, Slade.

 

[Shaggy]

I've gone for Colin Slade, but I think they will take two back ups for Carter, and they will most likely be Slade and Cruden

 

[tinchy17]

Brilliant news! He's great!

 

[Natas]

Great players, the lot of them. Slade would be my choice also. With Cruden, I always get the feeling hes gonna get to scared and run off the paddock. Hes definately got the skills but not my confidence just yet.

 

[Amobokoboko]

Slade, altho I would wait at least one or two more games before making my choice.
Donald plays really well with the Chiefs but doesn't get his game on the next level when playing internationals

 

[Larksea]

Well I'm pretty sure two of these guys will go on tour to backup carter. IMO in this order, though it is very close.

Donald - I disagree with the above 2-3 average performances in 19 test caps does not mean he "doesn't get his game on the next level when playing internationals" Cruden had a very average game against Aussie and Delany had a very average game against Italy last year so they are hardly better internationals. Plus Donald has won games for the AB's. The other thing I like about Donald is that he is a very good defender, carter is the best 10 in the world in terms of defence and Donald is not far behind. He's 6ft2 and almost 100kg and very rarely lets anything go through. Cruden tackles well for his size but he's still a target. Delany will put huge hits on one min and totaly miss a tackle the next. I think his technique makes him vulnerable on the inside. But really the main reason I think Donald should go is for his kicking. He and Carter are the only proven international class kickers in NZ. Also note that donald is the only one of the 4 options to have long term control over a super14 #10 jersey or even a super14 starting spot.

Next for me would be Slade. I think he leap frogged Cruden with his ~30min on the field when he replaced him. He was cool and very reliable, has a vast skill set. I also think his kicking is that much better than cruden as well. He has yet to really kick on as a 10 in super14 or really prove himself as a goal kicker yet though. Going for long periods only kicking for goal around 50% is not good enough for test footy, but I think he has improved this year. Do get the feeling though with slade that if he wasn't in the queue behind carter and at times Brett as well. He's already be an established All Black - I think he should have moved to the highlanders last season.

Cruden - he just may be the next big thing but I dont think he's ready yet and even next year may be too soon. His smaller size can be an asset but it may mean it takes a bit longer to adjust to test footy because the players are that much bigger and more skillful. His strength is without a doubt between his ears. He's a very smart kid with a killer instinct with the potential to even be AB captian you can see it for sure the way he struts around the park in ITM cup but he's yet to bring that same attitude to super rugby or international rugby and I hope he does soon because we need more of that in NZ. His weakness is without a doubt his kicking game. Kicking for goal was simply not good enough for super14 and he has lacked length in his punting. Very important since Nonu in particular is not a kicking 12.

Delany - bit of a bolter last year but he is in the mix for sure. BOP are an average team without him and a good team with him. As a kicker he is up there with Carter and Donald, Much better than Cruden and better at goal than Slade. But for me he relies on his kicking just a bit too much. Which is a shame because he's not a bad runner, just seems he doesn't really go to his running game till he has to, like it's a last resort. Not a bad tackler but still a bit weak on defence at times, even though he pulls off the odd big hit he does miss some as well.

 

[Larksea]

though that is my opinion. I actually think they will Take Slade & Cruden, slade because of his good 30min against Aussie and Cruden because he is a pet project.

It's tight though, all of them can stake a claim to go.

As far as utility value goes, donald can play 12, slade can play wing & fullback pretty well. delany can play 15 though I cant see that happening with mils, dagg and jane a sure thing to tour. A lot of talk about Cruden playing 9 but he's yet to show there that I know of.

 

[ranger]

though that is my opinion. I actually think they will Take Slade & Cruden, slade because of his good 30min against Aussie and Cruden because he is a pet project.

It's tight though, all of them can stake a claim to go.

As far as utility value goes, donald can play 12, slade can play wing & fullback pretty well. delany can play 15 though I cant see that happening with mils, dagg and jane a sure thing to tour. A lot of talk about Cruden playing 9 but he's yet to show there that I know of.

This is my pet hate at the moment. Im not targeting you specifically, but it seems like a widespread thing that everyone is commending Slade for his great play in the last test.
Newsflash for everyone, he played for 19 minutes. He didn't do anything wrong, but he wasn't really up to much either, he couldnt really in that amount of time especially when taking scrums, lineouts and other late game stoppages into the equation. he had a couple of good touches but he was no where near as good as people are making out. He didn't turn the game around for NZ or anything like that, if he gets picked it will be on ITM cup form.

 

[Shaggy]

This is my pet hate at the moment. Im not targeting you specifically, but it seems like a widespread thing that everyone is commending Slade for his great play in the last test.
Newsflash for everyone, he played for 19 minutes. He didn't do anything wrong, but he wasn't really up to much either, he couldnt really in that amount of time especially when taking scrums, lineouts and other late game stoppages into the equation. he had a couple of good touches but he was no where near as good as people are making out. He didn't turn the game around for NZ or anything like that, if he gets picked it will be on ITM cup form.

Sure, I hear you Ranger ... i'm a "fan" of Slade's, but I was concerned in the Canterbury match against Otago how the pressure seemed to affect him and 14 points were scored by Otago

For my part, i'm unsure who should be the backup for Carter come RWC and beyond ... in fact i'm not sure that the AB selectors are totally convinced themselves, which is why I think both Cruden and Slade will go on the EOY tour, and both will be tried ... like you said, Slade has had only 19 minutes, and Cruden hasn't had much game time either, so they both need to be tried.

Donald and Delaney are safer options which could be used next year, if neither Cruden or Slade step up to the mark on tour.

 

[Larksea]

Slades time on the field in that game sticks out because he looked so much more comfortable than Cruden did in that game. No he didn't bust the game open but a couple of nice passes and a couple of nice kicks up the field made him look very good after cruden struggled to do those basic tasks for most of the match.

 

[smartcooky]

This is my pet hate at the moment. Im not targeting you specifically, but it seems like a widespread thing that everyone is commending Slade for his great play in the last test.
Newsflash for everyone, he played for 19 minutes. He didn't do anything wrong, but he wasn't really up to much either, he couldnt really in that amount of time especially when taking scrums, lineouts and other late game stoppages into the equation. he had a couple of good touches but he was no where near as good as people are making out. He didn't turn the game around for NZ or anything like that, if he gets picked it will be on ITM cup form.

We all know he only played for 19m ranger, but the point was the WAY he played.

he looked assured while Cruden didn't
he made things happen while Cruden didn't

Neither Cruden (nor Vito) looked the goods at this level. It was clearly noticeable how much more go-forward the All Black forwards had when Jerome Kaino came on for Victor Vito, and how much more dangerous the backs looked when Slade came on. Both All Black tries were scored after they were subbed.

There are other issues. Larksea has definitely hit on a really important point about Cruden's kicking game; it is weak. His punting is short and inaccurate, and his placekicking is barely passable. Having a 10 that doesn't kick well, with Nonu (who also isn't the greatest kicker) playing outside him is a risk. On the other hand, Slade has a prodigious and accurate punt, and his goal-kicking is running at over 75%, and from greater distances than Cruden has been making.

If I am coaching a team and know that the opposition has limited kicking options at 10, 12, & 13 then I am going employ the rush defence to shut down their remaining options and put pressure on them to kick poorly.

Another thing in Slade's favour is experience. He has had two full years of Super 14 (26 caps) and is in his third year of NPC (35 caps). Cruden has less than 10 Super 14 caps and most of them as a sub.

 

[ranger]

We all know he only played for 19m ranger, but the point was the WAY he played.

he looked assured while Cruden didn't
he made things happen while Cruden didn't

Neither Cruden (nor Vito) looked the goods at this level. It was clearly noticeable how much more go-forward the All Black forwards had when Jerome Kaino came on for Victor Vito, and how much more dangerous the backs looked when Slade came on. Both All Black tries were scored after they were subbed.

There are other issues. Larksea has definitely hit on a really important point about Cruden's kicking game; it is weak. His punting is short and inaccurate, and his placekicking is barely passable. Having a 10 that doesn't kick well, with Nonu (who also isn't the greatest kicker) playing outside him is a risk. On the other hand, Slade has a prodigious and accurate punt, and his goal-kicking is running at over 75%, and from greater distances than Cruden has been making.


If I am coaching a team and know that the opposition has limited kicking options at 10, 12, & 13 then I am going employ the rush defence to shut down their remaining options and put pressure on them to kick poorly.

We all know aye? i have seen comments from people commending the half game he played and even in this thread people were saying he played for 30 minutes. He was barely on the field, im sorry but 19 minutes isn't enough time for me to judge a player.
I don't think he was any more assured or made things happen, he was barely there. He played a bit part. There is a correlation between Slade coming on and the backline looking more threatening, but i hesitate to assign causality to Slade, the All Blacks picked up in the last 20 minutes of a close test match just like every other game this year. I dont think that was down to Slade.
I definitely think Slade should get another shot, hes talented and has shown that he has something to offer. But i don't think the last test was anything to write home about.

Im not without my concerns on him either though. As Shaggy pointed out, Slade looked to be faltering under the pressure against Otago, which is pretty scary considering how crap Otago is. He also looked a bit uneasy against Wellington. Lets not forget when he got his first shot at first five with the Crusaders either, he had an absolute shocker, worse than Crudens performance. He dropped to the bench after that and only made his return to the team on the wing..
He has looked good playing first five in a dominant ITM cup side against inferior teams. I'm not sure of how he will handle the step up to international level where the playing field is more even. (19 minutes isn't enough to make up my mind) This just confirms the fact that he needs to be tested on the tour though.

Crudens kicking troubles are interesting though. His long punts have never been his strength but they haven't exactly been a weakness either, he was adequate last year. I wonder weather the kicking coaches have got to him and made him learn a new kicking technique that hes struggling with. I would really be surprised if he kicks that badly again.
One important thing you have omitted from your assessment on kicking is Weepu and Cowan. They are two of the best tactical kickers from 9 in the world, the lack of a kicker at 12 is offset by a kicker at 9. If Cruden gets his kicking back up to a passable standard then we should be fine for kicking options.

A couple of other points from the rest of the thread
-Crudens defense is absolutely top notch, his tackling is impeccable. That fact that he is small and attracts attackers isn't a weakness, its a strength.
-Mike Delaney did not have a bad game against Italy. It was uneventful seen as he was playing against a defensive team in wet conditions, but he did absolutely nothing wrong.
-It would be foolish to take Donald on the tour, weather you are a fan or not, we know exactly what he can do. This tour the last real chance to test new players, Donald is a waste of a spot.

 

[BjR]

Absolutely agree - Donald should go, purely because of his experience at international level. Cruden, Slade and Delany all play well but I don't think they have the class of Donald whether it be goal-kicking, punting, attacking or defending.

 

[Sam Owen]

Absolutely agree - Donald should go, purely because of his experience at international level. Cruden, Slade and Delany all play well but I don't think they have the class of Donald whether it be goal-kicking, punting, attacking or defending.

Hmm..good point. Im not a big fan of Stephen, I like him in the Chiefs but when he's in black ahhhh???...he's ok. I hate his timing on his chips for himself, they make him look bad when they go to opposition lol but yeah good point B.

 

[ranger]

Absolutely agree - Donald should go, purely because of his experience at international level. Cruden, Slade and Delany all play well but I don't think they have the class of Donald whether it be goal-kicking, punting, attacking or defending.

Why should he go because of his experience? It doesn't matter if they lose these tests, surely testing out options on the tour is more important than having an experienced player there to ensure victory? Even if they were really wanting to win next month, the All Blacks have been taking untested rookies with them on this tour every year, and have won all but one game since 2002, only dropping one match against the barbarians last year.
Donald is the best goal kicker out of this group (although hes no stranger to having a shocker), hes a great defender, he can run hard and has a long punt when given space.
However, Cruden is just as good on defense, they are both great defensively. Donald is probably the worst attacker out of the whole bunch too, his instincts aren't as sharp as the other options. He doesn't clue on to attacking opportunities as quickly as the others and he can look very labored in his play. Even when he does spot gaps, his pace off the mark isn't up there with the other 3. In situations where Cruden, Slade and Delaney scythe through holes untouched with their acceleration, Donald is often slower to those opportunity's but breaks through those closing gaps with his immense strength. He can get away with that at ITM and Super 14 level but you just can't do that at international level.
The worst part about Donalds game is that he just doesn't appear to have enough time when he does things, hes the kind of first five that looks like you could blitz on and he would flake out. He cant set up players as well as the others can either, his play making and decision taking on the fly and in broken play just isn't at the right level for the kind of game the allblacks play.
Hes a top player, but hes not really suited to All Blacks rugby.

 

[Larksea]

Ranger, I can't disagree with your observations about Donald. Makes me think you really havn't seen him play much. He has great vision on attack dont know if you saw his game last weekend or his pass he threw what seemed to be more than half the width of the field to land perfectly in the hands of one of the players out wide and a try was scored. The week before that in his comeback game he saw some rough defence close to the ruck and ran through about 4 defenders and almost scored himself. Try was scored 2 phases later.

Interestingly I watched the 2009 trys of the year the other day, one of the AB trys in the list started with donald back near the NZ 22 he looks up to kick and sees the AB's have a numbers advantage so he tossed a very good pass and of course the result was a try.

In my view donald is one of the best around at exploiting clean fast ball, he's not as good as carter when the ball isn't so good but who is. one thing to note is that Jimmy Cowans clearance over the last couple of years has been horrid. Carter has been doing ok with it but I think most people notice how much more mommentum the All Blacks have with weepu playing halfback. It's important to note because under the new rules the halfback is more important as an attacking platform, they are the ones that deliver the ball that should be faster under the new rules.

 

[Darwin]

I have to largely agree with Ranger's assessment of Donald. He is a good player, but his decision making seems laboured at times - he seems to me to be better suited to playing 12 (and indeed he may find himself playing a lot of 12 outside Delany in next years Super 15). He did play well a times for the AB's last year, while at other times he was poor - I do think the more attacking style of rugby the AB's are playing this year will suit him more than the kick-fest last year.

If two first-fives are selected to backup Carter I would seriously consider selecting Donald (alongside Slade) - it would be a toss up between him and Delaney in my mind. I'd probably still slightly favour Delany, but if Donald continues his strong form over the next two weeks I may change my mind.

 

[smartcooky]

Why should he go because of his experience? It doesn't matter if they lose these tests, surely testing out options on the tour is more important than having an experienced player there to ensure victory? Even if they were really wanting to win next month, the All Blacks have been taking untested rookies with them on this tour every year, and have won all but one game since 2002, only dropping one match against the barbarians last year.
Donald is the best goal kicker out of this group (although hes no stranger to having a shocker), hes a great defender, he can run hard and has a long punt when given space.
However, Cruden is just as good on defense, they are both great defensively. Donald is probably the worst attacker out of the whole bunch too, his instincts aren't as sharp as the other options. He doesn't clue on to attacking opportunities as quickly as the others and he can look very labored in his play. Even when he does spot gaps, his pace off the mark isn't up there with the other 3. In situations where Cruden, Slade and Delaney scythe through holes untouched with their acceleration, Donald is often slower to those opportunity's but breaks through those closing gaps with his immense strength. He can get away with that at ITM and Super 14 level but you just can't do that at international level.
The worst part about Donalds game is that he just doesn't appear to have enough time when he does things, hes the kind of first five that looks like you could blitz on and he would flake out. He cant set up players as well as the others can either, his play making and decision taking on the fly and in broken play just isn't at the right level for the kind of game the allblacks play.
Hes a top player, but hes not really suited to All Blacks rugby.

Besides all that, he has played 19 tests over two seasons. Ted & Co. already know what he can do. Surely, they want to find out what others can do, rather than "discovering" them next year. For the same reasons that Donald should not go, SBW must go.

Keep in mind, that the All Blacks will only play FOUR Tri-Nations matches next year (not six), and there are NO June tour matches. This means there are eight tests left before RWC2011, and half of them are going to be on this tour. If they don't pick Slade and SBW for this EOYT, they are not goiung to have any real opportunities to pick them next year.