[COVID-19] General Discussion

[Amiga500]

I don't quite know what to make of this:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920301643?via=ihub

The COVID-19 epidemic is believed to have started in late January 2020 in France. Here we report a case of a patient hospitalised in December 2019 in an intensive care unit in a hospital in the north of Paris for haemoptysis with no aetiological diagnosis. RT-PCR was performed retrospectively on the stored respiratory sample and confirmed the diagnosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Based on this result, it appears that the COVID-19 epidemic started much earlier in France.

No reason to believe they are not in earnest.

Chances of a bad test are unlikely.

Did the virus exist before and mutate in Wuhan? Or does it have a less lethal cousin?

I find it hard to believe - given the spikes in ICU demand and death rates - that it went hidden across the world for several months before Feb/March...?

 

[TRF_Olyy]

My Dad is 100% convinced he had it in early January (in France).
He's very rarely ill but was close to phoning an ambulance it knocked him for 6 so bad.

 

[die_mole]

My California relatives say that when they were in the hospital for a routine thing last December that a wing of the hospital was on shutdown for one specific purpose. I think it's in the realm of possibilities that the virus existed before and Wuhan is where it mutated into a super contagious virus.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

It might also go some way to explain why Europe was hit so hard

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Hunt talking about the differences in pandemic preparation between Europe and Asia is very interesting too.
Mainly that Europe focused on preparing for it to be more flu like whilst Asia focused on what they had learnt from SARS because they got burnt by that so badly and that was at the core of the issues that Europe has had

 

[Gavin]

Don't let the Brexiter's jump on the EU-virus origin, they'll start to believe it's concrete proof that leaving the bloc is essential

 

[RedruthRFC]

Mainly that Europe focused on preparing for it to be more flu like whilst Asia focused on what they had learnt from SARS because they got burnt by that so badly and that was at the core of the issues that Europe has had

What we could do with is some sort of health organisation that operates on a world wide basis!

 

[General Melchett]

Teachers in the UK are really getting some abuse from the right-wing media due to their concerns about going back to the classroom.

Strange that the government are pushing for public schools to head back but most private schools are not going back to September.

What's it like in other countries for demonising a particular part of society for concerns about returning to work?

Yup. We'll know it's safe for people to go back to school when Eton is open again.

 

[Reiser99]

Apparently a lot of concerns about the contact tracing app ranging from security to privacy laws.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52725810

We're already way behind other countries (saying we're better than Brazil and US ain't much at this point) and, until they combine it with testing, their testing numbers are really just for show and to give them some basic data. We're no where near being able to isolate specific outbreaks quickly and effectively.

 

[Reiser99]

Also apparently the government, civil service and all related experts are preparing for a public enquiry and getting their 'facts' straight. On top blame game is starting over whose decision it was to limit testing to hospitals back in March. Nothing says effective governance than trying to cover your own arse.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Also apparently the government, civil service and all related experts are preparing for a public enquiry and getting their 'facts' straight. On top blame game is starting over whose decision it was to limit testing to hospitals back in March. Nothing says effective governance than trying to cover your own arse.

I've got faith that a public inquiry will show who is ultimately culpable in all of this. Getting ones facts straight isn't really news, I would suggest that that is fairly integral to an inquiry no?

Whatever the result of that inquiry comes back as I hope will give some semblance of clarity over who is at fault, and to what extent, regardless of any finger pointing. They should be held accountable accordingly

I would back one in Scotland as well (or in the same investigation) as most of the issues are the same, but conducted by separate administration

 

[Reiser99]

I've got faith that a public inquiry will show who is ultimately culpable in all of this. Getting ones facts straight isn't really news, I would suggest that that is fairly integral to an inquiry no?

Whatever the result of that inquiry comes back as I hope will give some semblance of clarity over who is at fault, and to what extent, regardless of any finger pointing. They should be held accountable accordingly

I would back one in Scotland as well (or in the same investigation) as most of the issues are the same, but conducted by separate administration

I don't. Still waiting for the Russian interference report that Boris suppressed before the election. I doubt it will ever see the light of day now.

 

[User1245]

Teachers in the UK are really getting some abuse from the right-wing media due to their concerns about going back to the classroom.

Strange that the government are pushing for public schools to head back but most private schools are not going back to September.

What's it like in other countries for demonising a particular part of society for concerns about returning to work?

The Australian Federal governments health advice has been the same from the beginning to now: Schools are safe. The data backs this.

However the states and teacher unions went above this and closed down schools anyway, despite what the science says.

The public has told "listen to the experts" and "look at the science" but the decision makers are either too busy covering their own butts and have no evidence to show to justify their decision.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

The Australian Federal governments health advice has been the same from the beginning to now: Schools are safe. The data backs this.

However the states and teacher unions went above this and closed down schools anyway, despite what the science says.

The public has told "listen to the experts" and "look at the science" but the decision makers are either too busy covering their own butts and have no evidence to show to justify their decision.

i dont think we can bag people for "ignoring the science" when they're playing it safe and taking the more conservative approach, it was only monday where a sydney school has had to close on short notice because a pupil has tested positive...and now they have to test the whole school etc

 

[Which Tyler]

70 French schools closed for cases of Covid-19

Or if you prefer English

More than 50 French schools now closed just a week after re-opening as new outbreaks spiral

 

[Which Tyler]

The Australian Federal governments health advice has been the same from the beginning to now: Schools are safe. The data backs this.

However the states and teacher unions went above this and closed down schools anyway, despite what the science says.

I'm gonna need actual data.
Australia with 7,000 cases and 100 deaths is not the same as the UK with 350,000 cases and 50,000 deaths.
Australia with early and decisive action is not the UK with late and incompetent "action".
Schools not opening does not provide data on the safety of schools that open.

You made a plea to "the science says" - please show where the science says that.

 

[duncanb]

70 French schools closed for cases
More than 50 French schools now closed just a week after re-opening as new outbreaks spiral

Very valid , in context 70 as % of well North of 1 million children is 0.007 ish %.

 

[User1245]

I'm gonna need actual data.
Australia with 7,000 cases and 100 deaths is not the same as the UK with 350,000 cases and 50,000 deaths.
Australia with early and decisive action is not the UK with late and incompetent "action".
Schools not opening does not provide data on the safety of schools that open.

You made a plea to "the science says" - please show where the science says that.

Study specific to Australia:

https://www.smh.com.au/national/saf...hools-for-student-return-20200425-p54n6i.html

International studies:

https://www.rivm.nl/en/novel-coronavirus-covid-19/children-and-covid-19

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa424/5819060

 

[User1245]

i dont think we can bag people for "ignoring the science" when they're playing it safe and taking the more conservative approach, it was only monday where a sydney school has had to close on short notice because a pupil has tested positive...and now they have to test the whole school etc

See the link to the NSW school study in my previous post.

They're not really giving consideration to the unintended consequences like the rise in the domestic violence or the joblessness rate because they can claim it's in the name of "keeping people safe".

I'm not saying they're evil but it's very convenient that the public were constantly being hit over the head with "listen to the experts" and then the moment it could negatively affect them, they choose not to follow the experts advice. They've now made it about politics and self preservation. The weaponisation of experts is not a good thing and further erodes public trust.

 

[Amiga500]

Study specific to Australia:

https://www.smh.com.au/national/saf...hools-for-student-return-20200425-p54n6i.html

International studies:

https://www.rivm.nl/en/novel-coronavirus-covid-19/children-and-covid-19

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa424/5819060

Thanks for the links. The first link is compelling, and very good indeed. 2nd one is rubbish. The 3rd is too small a sample to represent anything.

Here's a real link to the first BTW:
http://ncirs.org.au/sites/default/f... COVID_Summary_FINAL public_26 April 2020.pdf