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[COVID-19] General Discussion

80% of people who get this thing appear to be fine. However, the 20% who aren't will rapidly swamp the health services of all countries affected with ICU beds being the most likely failure point. A mortality rate of 1 - 2% seems to be on the cards with the majority of the dead being old / suffering from other health conditions.

That was the case, but two out of our fifty one deaths in NZ have been kids under ten, twenty percent have been between ten and thirty.

The figures on mortality I saw the other day: if you're admitted to hospital mortality is 21%, admitted to HDU mortality is 40%, intubated it's 64%.
 
Wishing for intellectual genocide is a little dark mate. Chill
I wished for nothing - I posited a hypothetical.

Genocide? Seriously? Unwad your panties, Doris.

The stupid have made this so much more worse than in needed to be, whining 'but my freedumb' and catching the attention of similarly intellectually-unarmed elected representatives.

We love going camping, but the camping forums are full of idiots trying to find like-minded vectors that won't ask to see their non-existent vaccine passports.

Thankfully the gummint have enforced vax passes for all public camping sites and most of the private camping grounds are complying.

We are a victim of our own success, though, where the slow of thinking think it's not a problem because the rate of infection is very low - without understanding that is a product of the rest of us being careful, masking, vaccinating, isolating. There's a hardcore of 'rugged individualist' that believes they're bulletproof, even when faced with the facts, that they don't believe. We're plagued with US-style conspiracy theorists, toting Trump flags, if you can believe.

It seems there's a lot more stupid out there than I previously thought
 
AZ was rushed, had flaws and there are better options.

The Oxford AZ vaccine was no more "rushed" than mRNA ones, and besides they were all under development pre 2020, so it wasn't like they appeared out of no where. Just the regulatory process was speeded up to get them all out.

Besides the Oxford AZ is based on different tech to Pfizer and Moderna, using a deactivated viral vector instead. Studies found that the antibodies just took longer than the mRNA ones, but there are studies which suggest a better longer term T and B memory cell response, which some scientists here have argued has protected the UK older population from being hospitalised because they received Oxford AZ rather than mRNA compared to our European counterparts.

They think that they have found the reason for the clotting: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59418123

Still, given the choice for poorer countries of Covid spreading unchecked or getting vaccinated, the latter is by far preferable. Even if it is for selfish reasons to reduce risk of variants. Oxford AZ was initially released at cost, but now has since being sold at a profit. If the American companies aren't willing to waive their patents then perhaps AZ would?

The mRNA vaccines also have a downside in that they need to stored at much lower temperatures, which isn't ideal for those poorer countries.
 
I was able to get my J&J booster shot a week and a half earlier than planned. I was scheduled for January 7th and got it yesterday. Someone cancelled their appointment and the Doctor's office administering the shots called me.

Black Power Yes GIF by BrownSugarApp
 

Latest data and only released at 8.30pm due to delay in deaths data for England. Deaths shot up to 332 (within 28 days of a positive test.)
 
I heard a guy on the news saying a big jump in deaths was to be expected today due to lack of reporting over Christmas (not sure why it would be today and not the 28th, but there we are)
 
I wished for nothing - I posited a hypothetical.

Genocide? Seriously? Unwad your panties, Doris.

The stupid have made this so much more worse than in needed to be, whining 'but my freedumb' and catching the attention of similarly intellectually-unarmed elected representatives.

We love going camping, but the camping forums are full of idiots trying to find like-minded vectors that won't ask to see their non-existent vaccine passports.

Thankfully the gummint have enforced vax passes for all public camping sites and most of the private camping grounds are complying.

We are a victim of our own success, though, where the slow of thinking think it's not a problem because the rate of infection is very low - without understanding that is a product of the rest of us being careful, masking, vaccinating, isolating. There's a hardcore of 'rugged individualist' that believes they're bulletproof, even when faced with the facts, that they don't believe. We're plagued with US-style conspiracy theorists, toting Trump flags, if you can believe.

It seems there's a lot more stupid out there than I previously thought
I am massively pro-state intervention on this one but there also needs to be acknowledgement that in democratic states you need to try and take public opinion with you. That's seldom achieved by shouting at people and calling them morons (even if that is what is screaming at you inside based on your own analysis of the situation).

In terms of 'letting the stupid die', that is now in essence the situation that is unfolding. If you expose yourself to greater viral loads (proximity, duration, ventilation) and don't get vaccinated you are far more likely to succumb because the virus has mutated away from only severly harming the very old and quite likes the taste of folk in their 40s upwards. Plus the 'non-stupid' who get vaccinated and don't expose themselves to excessive viral load give themselves every chance of just shrugging off an infection.

The above is why I've shifted from being far more hardline than European governments to now being only a bit more hardline than European governments in my sentiments.

Assuming your figures on NZ mortality rates are accurate they seem to match what is being seen in South Korea (i.e. very bad - although vaccination rates in South Korea are way ahead of NZ which is what makes their experience so unusual). I'd sepculate that these mortality rates may suggest the immunity and resistance gained from natural infection are more powerful than that gained through immunisation because the mortality rates now in countries that 'let it rip' are far lower (of course those countries have hundreds of thousands of people now dead). If that is ever proven i think distinct summer and winter policies need to be implemented, but even the summer ones should include the basics of face coverings on public transport, home working where possible and Covid passports until this sucker morphs into something that our scientists start beating a bit more emphatically.

Personally, I'd be fairly relaxed if I was a Kiwi heading into summer. There are loads of things that kill you. In Scotland the following kill around 800-1400 per annum

Drug overdoses (who says Scotland aren't number one at anything. Knock off valium and low purity heroin cocktails baby!)
Alcohol deaths
Suicides

A really bad flu will kill 2000 Scots in four months. Covid has killed 5,000 Scots per annum and is now at a much lower rate over the last couple of month or so and I'll be surprised of there are more than 2,000 in total in 2022 (and hopefully much less). Yes these figures are still higher than the other causes of death I list above, yes it is different and yes the Covid death figures would be ludicrously high if everyone just went around ignoring all measures to restrict spread; but with the advent of vaccines, rules on face coverings and vaccine passports it is no longer something to be hiding behind the sofa about if you take common sense measures (unless you are immuno-suppresed and/or forced by your employer onto public transport or an unventilated office in which case I'd personally be very concerned for myself and an elderly relative I care for). And Scotland royally ballsed up our initial response as much as the rest of the UK did and NZ did not, so Covid killed loads, but loads of things kill loads!

The following will all individually kill more Scots than Covid in 2022, barring something catastrophic.

Heart disease
Dementia
Lung cancer
Strokes
Other respiratory diseases


Just because we don't get daily **** poor sensationalist media coverage of the above obsessing over crappy charts and statistically insignificant trends in order to desperately hold the viewing public's attention, that doesn't mean people aren't dying in large numbers of all these other things (and yes, inferior health care due to the impact of Covid-19 on health provision will be a contributory factor in doubtless elevating some of these non-Covid deaths).

I don't know your vital statistics, but if you are vaccinated I'd wager you are statistically more likely to die from a stroke caused in part by sustained elevated anxiety and anger over Covid-19 matters than you are to die of Covid-19. I'm not even joking there. The solution is clearly for us all to focus our anxiety and anger on the actions of others that contribute to our elevated risk of suffering a stroke! It's the only logical approach to maximise our chances of living another year. :D
 
Has arrived to Slovakia and, despite a better situation with Covid/rates (in comparison to Poland,for example), there are quite serious restrictions here: curfew after 8 pm, mandatory FFP2 masks in public places (instead of usual medical masks), restaurants/bars are closed etc
Knock off valium and low purity heroin cocktails baby

In Scotland?! :eek:
 
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I heard a guy on the news saying a big jump in deaths was to be expected today due to lack of reporting over Christmas (not sure why it would be today and not the 28th, but there we are)
Yes, I read the same on both Sky news and BBC that the big jump includes deaths since Xmas eve. Just seems the figures are delayed of the because of the holidays.
 
I am massively pro-state intervention on this one but there also needs to be acknowledgement that in democratic states you need to try and take public opinion with you. That's seldom achieved by shouting at people and calling them morons (even if that is what is screaming at you inside based on your own analysis of the situation).

In terms of 'letting the stupid die', that is now in essence the situation that is unfolding. If you expose yourself to greater viral loads (proximity, duration, ventilation) and don't get vaccinated you are far more likely to succumb because the virus has mutated away from only severly harming the very old and quite likes the taste of folk in their 40s upwards. Plus the 'non-stupid' who get vaccinated and don't expose themselves to excessive viral load give themselves every chance of just shrugging off an infection.

The above is why I've shifted from being far more hardline than European governments to now being only a bit more hardline than European governments in my sentiments.

Assuming your figures on NZ mortality rates are accurate they seem to match what is being seen in South Korea (i.e. very bad - although vaccination rates in South Korea are way ahead of NZ which is what makes their experience so unusual). I'd sepculate that these mortality rates may suggest the immunity and resistance gained from natural infection are more powerful than that gained through immunisation because the mortality rates now in countries that 'let it rip' are far lower (of course those countries have hundreds of thousands of people now dead). If that is ever proven i think distinct summer and winter policies need to be implemented, but even the summer ones should include the basics of face coverings on public transport, home working where possible and Covid passports until this sucker morphs into something that our scientists start beating a bit more emphatically.

Personally, I'd be fairly relaxed if I was a Kiwi heading into summer. There are loads of things that kill you. In Scotland the following kill around 800-1400 per annum

Drug overdoses (who says Scotland aren't number one at anything. Knock off valium and low purity heroin cocktails baby!)
Alcohol deaths
Suicides

A really bad flu will kill 2000 Scots in four months. Covid has killed 5,000 Scots per annum and is now at a much lower rate over the last couple of month or so and I'll be surprised of there are more than 2,000 in total in 2022 (and hopefully much less). Yes these figures are still higher than the other causes of death I list above, yes it is different and yes the Covid death figures would be ludicrously high if everyone just went around ignoring all measures to restrict spread; but with the advent of vaccines, rules on face coverings and vaccine passports it is no longer something to be hiding behind the sofa about if you take common sense measures (unless you are immuno-suppresed and/or forced by your employer onto public transport or an unventilated office in which case I'd personally be very concerned for myself and an elderly relative I care for). And Scotland royally ballsed up our initial response as much as the rest of the UK did and NZ did not, so Covid killed loads, but loads of things kill loads!

The following will all individually kill more Scots than Covid in 2022, barring something catastrophic.

Heart disease
Dementia
Lung cancer
Strokes
Other respiratory diseases


Just because we don't get daily **** poor sensationalist media coverage of the above obsessing over crappy charts and statistically insignificant trends in order to desperately hold the viewing public's attention, that doesn't mean people aren't dying in large numbers of all these other things (and yes, inferior health care due to the impact of Covid-19 on health provision will be a contributory factor in doubtless elevating some of these non-Covid deaths).

I don't know your vital statistics, but if you are vaccinated I'd wager you are statistically more likely to die from a stroke caused in part by sustained elevated anxiety and anger over Covid-19 matters than you are to die of Covid-19. I'm not even joking there. The solution is clearly for us all to focus our anxiety and anger on the actions of others that contribute to our elevated risk of suffering a stroke! It's the only logical approach to maximise our chances of living another year. :D
The major difference between those causes of death you mentioned (apart from Flu) and Covid 19 is the transmissibility, and the knock on effect on the health services caring for those patients. Pre Omicron we were looking at waiting lists in excess of 5m. And that is going to grow longer with health services having to brace themselves for each outbreak.

We've also got to look at burnt out NHS staff for a disease, where vaccination reduces the severity (from not going to hospital to shortening the length of stay and not needing ventilation) but around 5m in the UK refuse to get vaccinated whatsoever because they don't want to.

I agree that we have got to live with this disease. And it may come to a point we have to to what the Germans and Austrians do and limit the rights of those unvaccinated and allow the rest of the vaccinated plus booster to get on life. And that means proper use of the vaccine passport and proper sanctions where fake ones are obtained.
 
Part of this could be because of multiple bookings. I booked mine through the NHS website and then my local GP invited me after. I kept the original booking in case something went wrong. After I got my booster I went to cancel my second appointment, but it had already gone. However, I don't know if that was just for me or the vaccination centre too. On top my wife and I are still getting text reminders to get the booster even though we have both had it. Basically as always in the NHS the communication is not as good as it should be.
 
Part of this could be because of multiple bookings. I booked mine through the NHS website and then my local GP invited me after. I kept the original booking in case something went wrong. After I got my booster I went to cancel my second appointment, but it had already gone. However, I don't know if that was just for me or the vaccination centre too. On top my wife and I are still getting text reminders to get the booster even though we have both had it. Basically as always in the NHS the communication is not as good as it should be.
Yeh same when I got my booster. I booked mine at a local walk-in the night before way back in November, and went for my appointment and they didn't even have my appointment on their list.

I also had one booked via my GP as a back up, but that was two weeks after and didn't want to wait as I was due back to the office that week. Cancelled the GP surgery one as soon as I did get my booster at the first appointment.

But still got a texts later and since including the reminder on Boxing Day. So, yes a lack of keeping proper records of who has had one or peeps not bothering/forgetting to cancel once they have had one.
 
Apologies if aware, but this website is superb for collating the daily statistics for the UK and Covid (albeit it goes in more detail for Scotland).


As at 30th December 2021 compared to the same date last year in Scotland:

- 7 day average deaths is 7 per day compared to 23 day (less than a third)
- number in ICU is considerably less than a half of last year
- number hospitalised is around 80% of last years levels (so still concerns there in terms of impact on health services, but 80% is better than 120%)

Factor in that last year:
- there were massive restrictions on social interaction in Scotland throughout December (not this year)
- you could only see folk on Xmas day (compared to three days over Xmas this year)
- Omicron spreads faster and stops being contagious sooner (i.e. any post Xmas spike in deaths should happen faster, if anything, than last year)

and personally I have seen enough data to be utterly convinced that Omicron is going to be manageable for any society with access to US vaccines and a degree of common sense (and social compliance) around basic measures. I remain more convinced than ever that the UK will not even reach SAGE's own best case scenario of 600 deaths per day from Omicron if there weren't more restrictions. Last week I predicted it would peek at 500 per day (7 day average), but I think that might actually be nearer 350 per day and that is well within social and political tolerance levels, particularly if those deaths are overwhelmingly of people who have chosen not to be vaccinated.

Additionally South Africa has effectively moved to its lowest Covid risk level with Omicron which gives real hope that, like the other strains, it won't show its teeth so much in summer months (and I say that even allowing for the different demographics).

Plus, the more contagious a strain is the longer it is likely to be before it is ever replaced (when you risk something more fatal becoming dominant). So we could have an extended period of people in summer building up additional immunity by being exposed to a comparatively benign strain. And all this relative positivity is with what appeared to be a genuinely "horrifically" mutated variant that is more challenging for vaccines (any future strain may not be so tricky for vaccines).

Yes, success is dependent on society pulling together and in public trust in health systems (which is why places like Slovakia have 8pm curfews despite having had perfect access to vaccines via the EU) and yes it will be very hard to minimise the demands placed on emergency services (although reducing isolation times to 5 days (which seems credible) will massively help with that). However, overall I think we are shifting from the priority being avoiding hundreds of thousands of deaths and Covid19 being the number 1 killer, to a situation where the priority is keeping emergency services afloat and Covid19 is barely in the top 10 killers in society. It's still a grim scenario, but it would be a huge leap in the right direction.

There isn't a data point out there globally or domestically giving me a cause for concern for countries with a healthy social attitude towards vaccination and personal hygiene (other than my gnawing concern about South Korean fatality rates (still high) which I attribute to a lack of natural infection in society). I'm so convinced of the above that I think I'll be breaking a two year hiatus on socialising in pubs and restaurants (excluding beer gardens) by May and sparing this thread any other posts barring the emergence of a new dominant variant (please no). If a reduction in the number of my essays isn't something worth cheering about, I don't know what is. I think I can truly wish you all a Happier New Year. :)
 




So, just under 190k recorded cases yesterday, but increase in deaths and hospitalisations (nearing 2k daily) with almost 12k in hospital, although length of stay less than at peak of last wave.

Has Omicron hit the over 60s age group yet to a significant degree (data)? In a America more incidents of young unvaccinated children ending up in hospital and ICU, how have children under 12 here not vaccinated experience of catching omicron?

Johnson saying up to 90% in ICUs are unvaccinated but typical Bojo doesn't elaborate further - are those ending up there double jabbed/1 jabbed/ not jabbed at all? If we know that 2 x Oxford AZ is not effective against symptomatic Omicron at all and 2 x Pfizer and Moderna fall to be 10% effective. But still effective against severe disease.

We are still waiting for next 2-3 weeks to see the data is for peeps who got infected over Xmas and new year and how that translates to not just hospitalisation/but also effect on critical care staff being off sick.

All very well having additional beds to deal with any surge, but as Royal college of nursing state pointless if you don't have the staff to deal with the surge if they are off sick as well.

Less severe than Delta, but much more transmissible yes, so far, so good. This virus wants to live and keep infecting as many peeps as possible and it can still reinfect those previously recovered (see Mikael Arteta). But unknown numbers who experience long Covid yet from this variant as way too early.

Boosters likely only effective for 10 weeks (mine is up end of Jan), by boosting antibodies in the blood stream, against symptomatic disease before dropping off to under 50%. Still don't know the long term effect on B and T memory cells at protecting against severe disease. Hopefully very good with the booster. But wait until March and consider whether Omicron specific booster is necessary?

And how is vaccinating continents like Africa going to go this year? As a continent less than 10% double vaccinated. Pitiful.

If, as hypothesised, Omicron did come from an immune suppressed/unvaccinated HIV patient in Southern Africa who was likely carrying a previous variant for 200+ days, then whoever patient zero for the next one is probably already carrying the next variant ready to spread. Which goes back to we are not safe until we are all safe.

Still so many questions for 2022, which is why I believe sticking to measures we can control (individually and collectively) is the way we live with this virus.

Until then I will be WFH (end of Jan) and where necessary wear a well fitting FFP2/N95 mask/eye protection in congregate settings for foreseeable future.
 
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