[COVID-19] General Discussion

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Does anyone yet have any further evidence as to how the pandemic started?

Not the foggiest. Despite re-testing of historic blood samples in Italy and France (Sept & Dec 2019 respectively) identifying cases that pre-dated the outbreak in Wuhan (Dec 2019), China definitely seems the firm favourite as the country of origin.

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I've not read anything to de-bunk the historic blood tests in Italy and France and it didn't seem to be reported much in the UK (although I wasn't paying attention to the UK media during early 2020 as there were far better news sources at that time). Unless studies like the above (showing indications of positive cases as far back as Sept 3rd, 2019 in Italy) have been debunked I don't think we can rule out some kind of very dormant and largely asymptomatic strain of Covid-19 has been in circulation globally earlier in 2019 (that nobody was noticing or looking for) and that the Wuhan variant was simply the first time it mutated into something god-awful.

So the choices are that above theory (not my personal favourite, but I've not read anything to eliminate it and we knew by summer 2020 that there were over 1,700 detected strains, with the most potent being 234 times more potent than the least potent), the China meat market/bat contamination or China man made plus accidental release.

The latter seems somewhat mad to me. No matter that superpowers will undoubtedly have biological weapons programs to compliment their total war efforts of hundreds and thousands of nukes (each 1,000+ times more powerful than those dropped on Japan), I cannot see this being man made by China for four main reasons:

i) they produce the disease but can only develop inferior vaccines to US, UK & Russia for 2 years after the infection? (indicating their understanding of the disease is lesser despite producing it and having earliest mass exposure to it). 2 years on and China is arguably bricking it more about Omicron than anywhere else in the world.

ii) the Chinese government have proven they can effectively snuff out all variants that are less contagious than Omicron to zero levels through lockdowns, Yet they have an accident in Wuhan and three thousand die before they get control of it through making emergency hospitals etc? (seems unlikely to me)

iii) the safety regime around developing biological weapons in laboratories is likely off the scale. At the very least it would likely have constant monitoring of employees to provide a very early warning of an accidental release rather than a situation where an accident is identified so late on that 3,000 people (still 99.9% of Chinese fatalities) die.

iv) the Wuhan strain was a truly rubbish biological weapon. The initial strain attacked those aged 70+ with by far the most violence and left those of military age largely untouched. This is not the way to destroy a rival military or a rival economy. History is littered with diseases that can annihilate the young and I've every faith that a regime as nasty as that of China could come up with something with far greater military and/or economic application.

So yeah, not the foggiest and I'm not convinced it is something it would even be practical to get to the bottom of despite posturing by WHO under political pressure from donors. Personally I put 'man made in China' as the least likely of the three above theories but viruses and diseases is something I have zero specialist knowledge about.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

That graph is nuts

Yesterday was 162k,
Gotta imagine that will shoot up with people testing before going back to school/work
Hospitalisations creeping up but not at any real speed (7 day average gone up by about 15% in the last two weeks, whereas cases have gone up by about 5billion %)

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Does anyone yet have any further evidence as to how the pandemic started?

‘Tit for tat’: why hunt for Covid’s origins still mired in politics and controversy

Scientific consensus absent as impasse between China and west continues to hamper tracing effort

www.theguardian.com

Still, very likely that it originated in that Huanan wet market in Wuhan. I, personally, doubt we will ever get a definitive answer because of the mistrust that exists. And the CCP will never allow a thorough enough investigation on their soil to find the answer.

 

[Gavin]

‘Tit for tat’: why hunt for Covid’s origins still mired in politics and controversy

Scientific consensus absent as impasse between China and west continues to hamper tracing effort

www.theguardian.com

Still, very likely that it originated in that Huanan wet market in Wuhan. I, personally, doubt we will ever get a definitive answer because of the mistrust that exists. And the CCP will never allow a thorough enough investigation on their soil to find the answer.

I have a friend who is adamant that he had Covid in October 2019 before it all started.

He went on holiday with his Dad to somewhere in eastern Europe (Austria I want to say) and both came back with flu symptoms. His Dad went to the doctor's and they did tests and said that it was some kind of cold virus but that was it.

Either way the theory that deforestation and climate change led to the virus moving to humans I can entertain.

 

[Reiser99]

Either way the theory that deforestation and climate change led to the virus moving to humans I can entertain.

The main point of this argument I believe is that viruses naturally jump between animals and humans all the time. It's natural and most fail to make the jump successfully. Where deforestation and climate change come in is that by removing animal habitats we are forcing them to move into cities and so as they live closer to us there is more opportunities for viruses to jump. Basically law of averages. Give it enough opportunities and one will succeed. It's why I also believe the theory about it starting in the Chinese wet markets. You literally have live animals living next to humans on a daily basis in awful conditions. It's a perfect scenario for a virus to jump and succeed.

 

[ncurd]

Let's not try to forget its been over 100 years since the last major pandemic and we have a far more interconnected world since then. Many experts have been saying for a long time it was a matter of when not if.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Covid: Cinema & Co flouted ban to show conspiracy film

Cinema & Co was ordered to close after breaking Covid rules, but showed a film by David Icke's son.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Covid: Vaccines for all every four to six months not needed, says expert

The most vulnerable should be prioritised for further doses instead, says Prof Sir Andrew Pollard.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Covid: Vaccines for all every four to six months not needed, says expert

The most vulnerable should be prioritised for further doses instead, says Prof Sir Andrew Pollard.

www.bbc.co.uk

That first sentence is the most obvious ******* statement anyone could have made

 

[Bada-Bing!]

That first sentence is the most obvious ******* statement anyone could have made

Think he's just stating the obvious.

Other Covid news
Next Bojo-Vallance-Whitty conference at 5pm.

 

[ncurd]

That first sentence is the most obvious ******* statement anyone could have made

Well considering we haven't managed it in 13....more vaccinations might be required though, its just about managing what you can do not what you can't. Which is what the professor actually said target those vulnerable make them as safe as possible and move onto the rest.

Just had to fill out a horrible form for an event we're supposed to be going to in early Feb (~100 people) had to basically tell them to accept a valid COVID Pass or we won't be going. Wish I could trust everyone going actually had their vaccinations, I'm not really for passes but they don't actually exclude anyone against vaccinations as they allow for LFT's only, which means I begrudgingly accept them as a required minimum safeguard. An unfortunate necessary evil that we can hopefully get rid of in time.

 

[McTallshort]

Well considering we haven't managed it in 13....more vaccinations might be required though, its just about managing what you can do not what you can't. Which is what the professor actually said target those vulnerable make them as safe as possible and move onto the rest.

Just had to fill out a horrible form for an event we're supposed to be going to in early Feb (~100 people) had to basically tell them to accept a valid COVID Pass or we won't be going. Wish I could trust everyone going actually had their vaccinations, I'm not really for passes but they don't actually exclude anyone against vaccinations as they allow for LFT's only, which means I begrudgingly accept them as a required minimum safeguard. An unfortunate necessary evil that we can hopefully get rid of in time.

A mate was in Ireland before Xmas on a job and needed to show his covid passport to buy a burger.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Yeah, my parents live in France and you need one to get anywhere - even outdoor farmers-market type village gatherings require a pass on entrance

Other Covid news
Next Bojo-Vallance-Whitty conference at 5pm.

Anything big expected, or just "Hands, Face, Space - get your boosters"?

 

[ncurd]

A mate was in Ireland before Xmas on a job and needed to show his covid passport to buy a burger.

Yeah that is where I'd draw the line by miles, this is 100 people in close proximity for 3 days. Basically if some idiot came in with it there's little chance others wouldn't get it as well. But yeah its way strickter elsewhere and I think anyone moaning about us being too restrictive is a bit nuts.

 

[Reiser99]

Well I'm in Kuwait teaching at the moment and had a nice reminder not to get complacent and also highlight how useless the UK's travel rules are.

One girl has just flown back and here you need to quarantine for at least 72 hours before taking the PCR, she's tested positive. In the UK, she could have done her test the moment she arrived and still possibly tested negative and then been out spreading the virus. Ironically her and few others did decide to break quarantine within our block of flats so now others are isolating because they got complacent.

Also as another note, here I can get a PCR for 9KD, which is £22 and comes back after maximum 10 hours. UK prices and wait times are pathetic and embarrassing.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Anything big expected, or just "Hands, Face, Space - get your boosters"?

Doubt anything no major.

Edit: if anything an update on NHS trusts declaring major incidents due to staff shortages?

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Fourth COVID-19 vaccine dose boosts antibodies five-fold in Israeli study, PM says

A fourth dose of COVID-19 vaccine boosts antibodies five-fold a week after the shot is administered, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Tuesday, citing preliminary findings of an Israeli study.

www.reuters.com

Rather than particularly good news, my interpretation is more that we have avoided bad news here (bad news being that a second booster in the most vulnerable provided diminishing returns). Hopefully this will give NH nations options to deploy a second booster if deemed necessary (seems borderline) and tide themselves over to hopefully some new and improved vaccines in time for next winter (not a given that we'll have them).

I'd like to think SH nations can time their boosters better than the NH were able to, say in May/June for the most vulnerable and reduce the requirement for anyone to get double boosters to see them through a winter. I'm not certain the SH will need a booster for non vulnerable individuals and they'll have had 6 months of Omicron during summer and autumn, so likely 70%+ of the population will have been infected naturally by then.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

For a sign of what a NH summer with Omicron might look like, let's look at a SH summer with Omicron in a well vaccinated nation (albeit 9 different approved vaccines) with a high underlying pre-Omicron infection rate like Argentina.

Argentina COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Argentina Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

In short, Omicron has been running amok since at least the week before Xmas and yet we see very modest fatalities at a rate that isn't growing. If those patterns remain the same we are probably only 3-4 weeks away from government policy being for Argentinians to run out onto the streets and kiss random strangers (to spread infection intentionally in an attempt to raise community immunity prior to the SH winter). At least, that's what I'd propose if things look the same in Argentina this time next month.

Australia doesn't have the same underlying pre-Omicron infection rate as Argentina, but doesn't look remotely scary either with summertime Omicron. So the places that remain scary are:
1) those NH places where Delta is still dominant and vaccine rates are low
2) NH places where Omicron hits and US vaccines are not used (e.g. China, Russia) of vaccine uptake is low (e.g. Bulgaria)
and possibly
3) NH places where Omicron has hit, but there isn't much natural community immunity (e.g. Korea).

I hope we move to a position globally where summertime boosters for the non-vulnerable (which is current Argentine policy) are abandoned in favour of sending these vaccines to countries with limited vaccine access.

 

[The Seeker]

US reports over a million new COVID-19 cases, setting a global record

The United States set a new world record after reporting over a million new COVID-19 cases. Monday's reported infections, which included a backlog of cases, were almost double that of the previous record set just days before and marks the highest daily increase for any country across the world since the beginning of the pandemic, Bloomberg reports.


Photo via @thehill

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Yikes and UK daily cases now > 200k. But yep no need to panic.