A Political Thread

[ncurd]

Ceredigion is one that the Lib Dems lost from ******* over the students.
I went to University in Aberystwyth 2008 - 2012 and it was very comfortably Lib Dem until the coalition.

2010 election: 50% of votes (22% more than Plaid in 2nd)
2015: 35% of votes (8% more than Plaid)
2017: 2nd (.2% behind Plaid)
2019: 3rd place (20% behind Plaid)

This pretty much true of all LD seats there were tons of comfortable ones. Yeovil is a completely different game barely any student population but has be blown away and now really an ultra-Tory seat.

It will take a long time to build that share of the vote back to where it was and regain trust. I'm leaving the party if we don't pick a leader that wasn't part of the coalition....it's time to move on from that and not open a leader up for attacks for their voting record at that time. Probably will still vote LD but like Labour have to own up to our mistakes.

 

[General Melchett]

This pretty much true of all LD seats there were tons of comfortable ones. Yeovil is a completely different game barely any student population but has be blown away and now really an ultra-Tory seat.

It will take a long time to build that share of the vote back to where it was and regain trust. I'm leaving the party if we don't pick a leader that wasn't part of the coalition....it's time to move on from that and not open a leader up for attacks for their voting record at that time. Probably will still vote LD but like Labour have to own up to our mistakes.

I also think the next LD leader needs to have a pretty squeaky clean voting record (we saw how Swinson's was unearthed during the campaign to her detriment) which suggests maybe someone relatively new would work best. They also need to have an ability to connect with the public, something Swinson and Davy didn't/don't have.

 

[ncurd]

How ******* deluded can you get

https://amp.theguardian.com/politic...majority-for-change?__twitter_impression=true

 

[McTallshort]

I may be a dick - but its better that than a stupid dick.

Who said you weren't stupid

 

[McTallshort]

Troll

Winning sure does seem to bring out the worst in some people
View attachment 7947

Losing has a bad affect on people too

 

[Reiser99]

How ******* deluded can you get

https://amp.theguardian.com/politic...majority-for-change?__twitter_impression=true

Yep as I've been saying, they see themselves are right and if you disagree you're wrong. Instead of changing their policies to suit the country, they try to change the country to suit their policies. Never going to happen. Especially with the way they do it which is to attack people if they don't side with them.

 

[ncurd]

I also think the next LD leader needs to have a pretty squeaky clean voting record (we saw how Swinson's was unearthed during the campaign to her detriment) which suggests maybe someone relatively new would work best. They also need to have an ability to connect with the public, something Swinson and Davy didn't/don't have.

Davy is good guy but going to have the same voting record issues. Like Labour we need a leader who can't be attacked out the gate that was part of the logic behind Farron as leader he was a coalition rebel who voted against the idea. Who became completely unstuck by a simple question by trying to give a nuanced answer that should of had a stock complete rebuttle after the first time....

Anyway it was less Swinson's record was unearthed and more used as part of targeted harassment campaign. She was an ex-junior minister within the coalition government its always going to tainted by that. when asked for examples outside the coalition nobody really had any response. But why I say targeted harassment is during the leadership campaign her twitter and other social media was relatively sane some people disagreeing but all in good spirit. The literal day she elected leader it completely changed with massive targeted posts with the key goal of trying to sell her as a 'Yellow Tory' and it worked amazingly well, through the grape vine I have heard a similar thing had been set up if Davy won. This pretty much put her back foot on day one, probably led to the extremely combative style she adopted and why she wouldn't entertain Crobyn in the slightest.

Huge mistakes were made by her and her team and I'm glad we didn't have to have an existential crisis of whether to keep her or not. She also manged to increase the vote share by 4% double that of any other party this election sadly vote share doesn't equal seats, it does eventually and the LD's are well primed to move some of those second places into 1st next election.


As I've said before the LD's have a problem with selecting a leader because 2015 was such a wipe out finding one who's got some experience and not part of the coalition is almost impossible. But the coalition is too much of a yoke and the country need someone Labour will work with ala 1997 (and not discard us immediately afterwards) just like we need a Labour leader that will work with the LD's.

 

[General Melchett]

So BoJo refusing to be interviewed by Andrew Neil gets very quickly forgotten, as does the Tories refusing to release the report on Russian interference.

As long as FPTP exists we will not see any electoral reform and will be stuck with the Tories for at least ten years.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

So Downing Street is boycotting BBC R4 due to the BBCs bias against Boris Johnson/The Tories during the election.

Couldn't make it up.

 

[Reiser99]

So BoJo refusing to be interviewed by Andrew Neil gets very quickly forgotten, as does the Tories refusing to release the report on Russian interference.

As long as FPTP exists we will not see any electoral reform and will be stuck with the Tories for at least ten years.

Problem is any mention of it would just be called being a sore loser. I still want to see the Russian report especially and hopefully some MPs will call for it to be released. However I can see it being buried.

 

[ncurd]

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/...C38hMhT6dkHVEfo1rhdxRWx6CEqXfMKiADEzbsIOgJ7vY

Some further breakdown of the result. Interesting like we suspected its 35+ where the Labour begins to actually collapse and 45+ where it begins to start to matter.

 

[Amiga500]

Who said you weren't stupid

Well the IMechE have given me numerous awards for quality of research... so I guess they said I wasn't.... (oh and I suppose the university that gave me a phd).


Can't argue with the dick bit though!

 

[Amiga500]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50781341

4 other candidates, not counting RLB, and only 2 with any real potential to challenge the Tories and I would not say Thornbury is in anyway a heavyweight candidate. Sir Keir Starmer is the clear obvious one but would the Unions vote for him?

I have no idea who Jess Phillips or Angela Rayner are.

No mention of Andy Burnham?

 

[ncurd]

Burnham is very unlikely now he's up in Manchester being mayor and doing a good job by the sounds of things. Although a leader not constantly at odds with Burnham and Khan might be a good idea...

 

[Bada-Bing!]

No mention of Andy Burnham?

He's not an MP.

 

[Amiga500]

He's not an MP.

Could easily be solved via by-election

 

[General Melchett]

Could easily be solved via by-election

Fingers crossed the next by election is Islington North!

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Could easily be solved via by-election

yes, that is right, but until there is an available seat following last week's election and Burnham expresses an interest in a) going for the vacant seat, plus win it and b) that he wants to go for the leadership role then it's by the by. That bbc article I posted up is just coming up with 5 names who could go for the leadership.

Nothing has been decided yet. I am sure other candidates will come to fore nearer the time of an election for leader. 4 years ago who the hell thought Corbyn was in with a shout to become leader?

 

[Amiga500]

4 years ago who the hell thought Corbyn was in with a shout to become leader?

That is very true.

Whoever Momentum swings behind is going to be very hard to stop given the party's selection system.

 

[ncurd]

If Rebecca Long-Bailey wins we're utterly ****** and is favourite.....