A Political Thread

[General Melchett]

or they think that BJ has found a loophole that will stand up in court.

I think it's precisely this one. It sounds like they have gotten wind of something. The longer they are in power the longer they can sow division, hate and continue with the People v Parliament narrative, potentially winning more Brexit party supporters. I think bringing them down sooner rather than later is considered to be the safest way of preventing No deal on 31 October.

 

[ncurd]

That's why the Benn act is key it requires any schenagans to occur before October 19th giving any potential issues a week to fix.

The only loophole I've heard they think they have is to send a second letter which would illegal because they have attempted to circumvent the first letter which they are required by law.


He'll come back with NI Only backstop. It will fail. He'll try to claim no deal break the law VONC and Tories is disarray whilst their leader is facing the courts.


I don't think they have any great way to circumvent it they are just trying to pretend they are to goad people into pulling the trigger.

 

[Gavin]

Listening to some of the vitriol from people, especially older people, about the climate debate and focusing in on Greta Thunberg is embarrassing.

They claim she is a child and should be treated as one, who has clearly been influenced by people around her, yet these are the same people who said the 15 year old ISIS bride Begum should be treated as an adult because she knew what she was doing and wasn't influence by others.

Talk about hypocrisy

 

[Reiser99]

Listening to some of the vitriol from people, especially older people, about the climate debate and focusing in on Greta Thunberg is embarrassing.

They claim she is a child and should be treated as one, who has clearly been influenced by people around her, yet these are the same people who said the 15 year old ISIS bride Begum should be treated as an adult because she knew what she was doing and wasn't influence by others.

Talk about hypocrisy

People in the wrong always try to deflect the argument away she's actively called out the older generations, especially the ones in power.

 

[Which Tyler]

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0930/1079253-border/

So their way around having a hard border at the border, is to have 2 hard borders 5 miles either side of the border, and a kind of economic DMZ between them.
Yeah, that'll work <rollseyes>

 

[General Melchett]

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0930/1079253-border/

So their way around having a hard border at the border, is to have 2 hard borders 5 miles either side of the border, and a kind of economic DMZ between them.
Yeah, that'll work <rollseyes>

I think we all know what's coming. May's deal will be brought back and re-heated with a few fudges such as these and it'll be hailed as the best deal ever.

 

[Which Tyler]

I think we all know what's coming. May's deal will be brought back and re-heated with a few fudges such as these and it'll be hailed as the best deal ever.

Yup - but he still needs to get his changes past the EU, and John Bercow, and Parliament - I still think his original plan included changes that wouldn't get past Bercow as being "substantive" - but he's lost his prorogation now, so can't do that.

Of course, BJ is also saying that the leaked plans are out of date, and the resonsibility of the May government - in much the same way that Yellowhammer was... until it wasn't



ETA: just heard (part of) the interview - he seems to say that it's not just putting a hard border a few miles away from the border - because he sees it as a hardening of the border, not an actual hard border - wriggle room

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Swinson reiterating that she won't vote for a Corbyn temporary government.
At some point she's going to have to come to terms with whether she actually wants to stop a no deal Brexit, like she claims, or not. Even SNP are on board now.

At the end of the day Corbyn is (twice voted in) leader of the opposition and commands the 2nd highest number of MPs in the house - the only other viable options are Corbyn's ministers (Starmer, et al) who would not try and usurp him like that. He's pretty comfortably the clear choice to lead a temporary Gov - especially when he's desperate for a GE, so it's not like he's being voted in for a 4 year term.

Either she wants the job for herself or she is on the take from the Tories - because all her actions are doing is enabling Brexit atm.

 

[ncurd]

Swinson reiterating that she won't vote for a Corbyn temporary government.
At some point she's going to have to come to terms with whether she actually wants to stop a no deal Brexit, like she claims, or not. Even SNP are on board now.

At the end of the day Corbyn is (twice voted in) leader of the opposition and commands the 2nd highest number of MPs in the house - the only other viable options are Corbyn's ministers (Starmer, et al) who would not try and usurp him like that. He's pretty comfortably the clear choice to lead a temporary Gov - especially when he's desperate for a GE, so it's not like he's being voted in for a 4 year term.

Either she wants the job for herself or she is on the take from the Tories - because all her actions are doing is enabling Brexit atm.

Do they actually have the ChangeUK and independent Tories on board yet? Because until they do it doesn't matter what Swinson days/does.

People keep banging on about a VONC but until a unity government can control the majority of the house of commons it leaves Boris in charge and in complete control of the timetable. People need to face the reality of house of commons electoral math and the actual rules behind a VONC rather than worrying about 18 MP's who do not hold the sway of power. Makes a nice scape goat though.


But sure 'on the takes from the Tories' and 'enabling Brexit' despite a party policy to revoke where Labour's opposition for the last three years is next to nothing and whose leadership policy is to not take sides.

 

[Which Tyler]

Swinson reiterating that she won't vote for a Corbyn temporary government.
At some point she's going to have to come to terms with whether she actually wants to stop a no deal Brexit, like she claims, or not. Even SNP are on board now.

At the end of the day Corbyn is (twice voted in) leader of the opposition and commands the 2nd highest number of MPs in the house - the only other viable options are Corbyn's ministers (Starmer, et al) who would not try and usurp him like that. He's pretty comfortably the clear choice to lead a temporary Gov - especially when he's desperate for a GE, so it's not like he's being voted in for a 4 year term.

Either she wants the job for herself or she is on the take from the Tories - because all her actions are doing is enabling Brexit atm.

On the one hand, yes, Corbyn is the leader of the second largest party in parliament.
On the other, he's a leaver who (probably) can't command a majority in parliament, and who is opposed to the preferred solution.

He's not even the most likely first choice, let alone "pretty comfortably the clear choice"

I don't really care who the figurehead PM is for a couple of months, but it should the person who has the trust of the largest number of MPs, which looks like Clarke, Harmann, or potentially Bercow. The 2 men are the more likely IMO as they've both confirmed that they're standing down at the next GE; though Harman has membership of the second biggest party in her favour.

I don't think Swinson's suggestion of 2 people who aren't her, and aren't even members of her party, can really be interpreted as her wanting the job for herself - that's just silly, though notnquite as silly as the suggestion that she's on the take from the Tories.

I'm not opposed to PM Corbyn, but anyone claiming that he's not divisive, or that he's the clear choice, or that there's no reason to oppose him (beyond bribery) is simply being disingenuous.

 

[Amiga500]

ETA: just heard (part of) the interview - he seems to say that it's not just putting a hard border a few miles away from the border - because he sees it as a hardening of the border, not an actual hard border - wriggle room

It is two hard borders ffs.

What use is that to a milk lorry collecting from farms both side of the border on the one run before going to the diary for processing?

 

[Amiga500]

Do they actually have the ChangeUK and independent Tories on board yet? Because until they do it doesn't matter what Swinson days/does.

People keep banging on about a VONC but until a unity government can control the majority of the house of commons it leaves Boris in charge and in complete control of the timetable. People need to face the reality of house of commons electoral math and the actual rules behind a VONC rather than worrying about 18 MP's who do not hold the sway of power. Makes a nice scape goat though.

Rubbish. Utter rubbish.

If Corbyn is put in as a temporary leader of a coalition - then all the LDs (and independents) have to do is vote for the policies that they agree with, namely:

1. Extension request from EU.
2. Call for General Election.

If Corbyn goes off script - then he is also a minority government and the LDs/independents can vote accordingly to ensure any policy they disagree with does not get past the house (as the Tory Party sure as hell aren't going to vote with Corbyn).


But, to get to the temporary leader bit - they need the LDs and indeps to agree to vote him in. Ultimately he'll be powerless beyond what they want him to do - and that is fine.


Swinson is being f**king shortsighted and/or stupid.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I'm not opposed to PM Corbyn, but anyone claiming that he's not divisive, or that he's the clear choice, or that there's no reason to oppose him (beyond bribery) is simply being disingenuous.

Of course he's divisive, but if she can't get past that for a couple of months to stop a no deal brexit then she's a massive hypocrite, really.
Happily jumped into bed with the Tories and voted their way on many incredibly damaging policies, yet having Corbyn as a stop gap until the next GE is a bridge too far?


The Lib Dems aren't the numbers to command a majority but them joining rank would certainly convince stragglers to join along.

 

[ncurd]

Rubbish. Utter rubbish.

Right lets be clear here Swinson has said she will vote for anyone who can command the majority of the commons (which a VONC requires).

Corbyn can't do that without the independent Tories

So until the independent Tories agree to support Corbyn (which they currently say over their dead body) she won't vote for him. Its a waste of time gives even more power to Boris over the timing of a GE.




Unless any candidate can command a majority (and like Which Tyler said I honestly couldn't give a **** who that is) a VONC creates more problems and fixes nothing.

Blaming Swinson for pointing out Corbyn can't command a majority even with LD support is just nonsence.

As noted I don't actually expect anyone to move in any direction until the government actually show their hand because I think they are just bluffers.

 

[Which Tyler]

As noted I don't actually expect anyone to move in any direction until the government actually show their hand because I think they are just bluffers.

This most especially. We can't afford a VONC until the 19th has been and gone without the extension request being sent. We also don't need it before then either.

Anything else is reacting to rumour and goading.

Pull that trigger too early, and you risk BJ being in charge of the GE schedule or dropping out of the EU because Parliament is dissolved.
If/when we get to October 20th push will have come to shove, and the holding of noses becomes actually necessary, until then, public statements are positioning for a future GE, it's discussions behind closed doors that matter.

FTR, I'm not a Swinson apologist, nor a Corbyn hater, nor a non-ERG-Tory hater (though there aren't any left in the Tory party - they're either ERG or ERG-apologists).
I voted labour in 2017, and would need to asses local feelings before deciding how I vote in the next GE - whoever is most likely to remove my invisible ERG MP.
I'm naturally somewhere around the left-moderate of Lib Dem, right-moderate of Labour, or somewhere within the Green party. I've typically voted for a home-made "none of the above" box, have also voted for all 3 of the above parties.

 

[ncurd]

This most especially. We can't afford a VONC until the 19th has been and gone without the extension request being sent. We also don't need it before then either.

Anything else is reacting to rumour and goading.

Pull that trigger too early, and you risk BJ being in charge of the GE schedule or dropping out of the EU because Parliament is dissolved.
If/when we get to October 20th push will have come to shove, and the holding of noses becomes actually necessary, until then, public statements are positioning for a future GE, it's discussions behind closed doors that matter.

Absolutely if you hold a VONC you need to be 100% sure it will succeed if an extension has not already been put in place.

I agree on the positioning as well currently the LD's have gained huge amounts in the polls due to defecting Labourites and Tories. Neither of whom really want the LD's to support Corbyn so it makes no tactical sense to support him now. On equal measure Labour needs to ruthlessly attack the LD's and make them sound like Tories enablers to bring back those voters. So they try to pain Swinson as the problem rather than the fact the math doesn't add up. They used the same successful tactic on Clegg post 2010 when claiming he should of supported Gordon Brown (which the commons math never worked for). Its tired old ground.



As noted no point worrying about what happens until push comes to shove. Swinson must know (hence the revoke article 50 policy) that her entire support relies on thwarting Brexit if she isn't seen to do everything she can if pushed she must know that will be the end of the party.

 

[ncurd]

I should point on other parties supporting Corbyn,

SNP - Labour are no more in Scotland and seeing to be aligned with them works well for keeping thier votes. They are in proper fights with Scottish LD's (such as Swinson) and Scottish Conservatives.
Green - Have their one seat won't win anymore.



As Which Tyler said this has way more to do with GE posturing than it does trying to stop no deal Brexit. By statutory law the Benn act does that (if the EU agrees and if they don't we're ducked regardless) until its thwarted the oppositions parties don't actually have to do anythin.

 

[Amiga500]

So they try to pain Swinson as the problem rather than the fact the math doesn't add up.

Right, I let the first one go, but that's twice in about 3 posts...

You are not in the US, lets not descend to their butchery of the language!

 

[Which Tyler]

Right, I let the first one go, but that's twice in about 3 posts...

You are not in the US, lets not descend to their butchery of the language!

As Which Tyler said this has way more to do with GE posturing than it does trying to stop no deal Brexit. By statutory law the Benn act does that (if the EU agrees and if they don't we're ducked regardless) until its thwarted the oppositions parties don't actually have to do anythin.

If the EU reject, we "need" a GNU willing to revoke article 50 - even if it's only to buy time before starting the process again (which pretty much guarantees that any future choice is WTO or Remain).
On Corbyn, I don't see him putting his name to that, though I could well be wrong.

 

[Gavin]

I do get annoyed when people say Corbyn could not bring the house together over Brexit when he is the only leader who is taking both sides of the vote into account.

LibDems - Swinson wants to revoke Article 50
Tories - Boris wants to push on with a No Deal Brexit
Labour - Corbyn wants to be neutral and let the public decide after they have negotiated a deal with Leave, Remain and Deal on the ballot paper.

If we add Labour (247), SNP (35), LibDems (18), Green (1) and Plaid Cymru (4) together we get 305.

Now we know that a good number of the independent (34) and Change UK (5) left their parties because of Brexit related issues so surely if they really want to stop a horrendous No Deal for the UK they'd vote in favour of Corbyn. Which would take us up to 344.

Even if only just over half of Independent and Change UK voted for Corbyn is could still work.

All we need is for Sinn Fein to suddenly appear with their 7 MPs which would be hilarious.