A Political Thread

[Amiga500]

For those that are still living under the illusion that "we can just trade under WTO rules" on the 30th March:



Unless Westminster grows a set and deals with it rather than dithering - we're f**ked. Clean f**ked.

On the other hand - given just how bad it could end up being... whats the bets on a United Ireland by end of 2020? Bet the Dinosaur Unionist Party wouldn't have expected that as fallout from their "blood red lines".

 

[McTallshort]

For those that are still living under the illusion that "we can just trade under WTO rules" on the 30th March:



Unless Westminster grows a set and deals with it rather than dithering - we're f**ked. Clean f**ked.

On the other hand - given just how bad it could end up being... whats the bets on a United Ireland by end of 2020? Bet the Dinosaur Unionist Party wouldn't have expected that as fallout from their "blood red lines".

If Britain don't get a deal Ireland will more ****** than the UK

Odds on a united kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland by 2020

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

If Britain don't get a deal Ireland will more ****** than the UK

Odds on a united kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland by 2020

Lol, how on earth do you come to that conclusion?

 

[General Melchett]

A united Ireland goes hand in hand with an independent Scotland IMO.

The SNP are desperate for a people's vote on Brexit because regardless of the outcome, it establishes the precedent that UK referendums are not necessarily once in a lifetime and strengthens their hand for Indyref2.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

It's oddly predictable that when a news story broke during the Scottish referendum about a company /possibly/ moving HQ due to independence it was main headline news for days and presented as an economic calamity.

Yet when companies /do/ move their HQ due to Brexit, state media make it their seventh story on their website. Well behind some verbal flatulance from Liam Fox. Nothing to see here!

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Scottish nationalists thinking that the whole Salmond thing is a conspiracy.

SMH.

Half of them think it is a conspiracy by other Scottish Nationalists and the other half think it is UK conspiracy caused by Westminsters condemnation of his work with RT.

Me? I'm just gutted that even if exhonerated, he won't be available for selection to improve Scottish depth at fly half (seriously, the Duncan Weir hype train has built up steam again).

 

[McTallshort]

Lol, how on earth do you come to that conclusion?

Who buys the vast majority of Ireland agricultural products?

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Who buys the vast majority of Ireland agricultural products?

So you think that means we'll be "more ******"? Better tell all those multinationals relocating here from London and creating employment in Dublin!

Ireland can also address the problem created by brexit immediately and with the backing of the EU, the UK will have to focus on writing, passing and implementing numerous bills to fix it's broken law as well as trying to trade on their own. There are no forecasts which are predicting that Ireland will feel the impact of brexit worse than the UK, at worst it'll be 70% as bad.

A united Ireland goes hand in hand with an independent Scotland IMO.

The SNP are desperate for a people's vote on Brexit because regardless of the outcome, it establishes the precedent that UK referendums are not necessarily once in a lifetime and strengthens their hand for Indyref2.

I think they're more or less entitled to one regardless, a big part of the campaign for Scotland to remain in the union was that they'd stay in the EU if I remember correctly.

Scotland has to go first before we get our country back too, the North of Ireland has no cultural ties with England and Wales and the DUP's campaign would fall mostly on deaf ears.

 

[General Melchett]

I think they're more or less entitled to one regardless, a big part of the campaign for Scotland to remain in the union was that they'd stay in the EU if I remember correctly.

Scotland has to go first before we get our country back too, the North of Ireland has no cultural ties with England and Wales and the DUP's campaign would fall mostly on deaf ears.

For sure. It would be a spectacular shift in the goalposts and the SNP have always maintained that they would only pursue a second referendum if there was a significant change in circumstances and Brexit would easily meet that criteria.

Ironically, the SNP's best hope of Scottish independence is for Brexit to be delivered in some shape or form but I guess they can't be seen to be endorsing Brexit given their own agenda and because 62% of Scots voted remain. A second/people's vote with remain winning would hinder the SNP's prospects of independence.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Is the SNP still pinning all their leave promises on North Sea Oil? or has it diversified more?

 

[General Melchett]

Is the SNP still pinning all their leave promises on North Sea Oil? or has it diversified more?

I think they were claiming that they would adopt some kind of fusion of Ireland/Scandinavia. Another big question would be re. currency. This is where they were unconvincing in 2016 as they had claimed they would keep the pound but if Brexit goes ahead this surely wouldn't be an option if they want to be part of the EU.

 

[Amiga500]

If Britain don't get a deal Ireland will more ****** than the UK

No, they won't. Not even close. Ireland will be adversely affected - but nothing like the same scale.

The ferries importing/exporting Irish goods will move from Dublin/Holyhead to Rosslare/Roscoff or Rosslare/Cherbourg. Slower, burns more fuel, more sensitive to bad weather etc etc, but operable.

It also removes the UK market for Irish traders, but... and this is a big but, Ireland will still be able to trade with other countries. The UK - literally - will not be able to trade with anyone (standalone UK trade deals will need to be struck to "trade under WTO rules").

Its not as if other countries (i.e. France or Germany) "will do a deal" because "there is too much riding on it" - they simply cannot - desire is irrelevant. They have legal obligations to existing trade deals (which will involve markets far bigger than the UK) which means they simply cannot offer free or favourable deals to the UK. There will be an entire myriad of negotiations to be done to strike up these deals - and in the meantime - no UK trade.

The above is not a new thing in this negotiation - the UK press have been presenting the view that Brussels needs to concede X, Y & Z. The EU can only offer what is possible under their existing legal frameworks. They do not have carte blanche to offer anything and everything - not without somehow renegotiating other treaties in parallel.

 

[McTallshort]

No, they won't. Not even close. Ireland will be adversely affected - but nothing like the same scale.

The ferries importing/exporting Irish goods will move from Dublin/Holyhead to Rosslare/Roscoff or Rosslare/Cherbourg. Slower, burns more fuel, more sensitive to bad weather etc etc, but operable.

Ireland will still be able to trade with other countries. The UK - literally - will not be able to trade with anyone (standalone UK trade deals will need to be struck to "trade under WTO rules").

Its not as if other countries (i.e. France or Germany) "will do a deal" because "there is too much riding on it" - they simply cannot - desire is irrelevant. They have legal obligations to existing trade deals (which will involve markets far bigger than the UK) which means they simply cannot offer free or favourable deals to the UK. There will be an entire myriad of negotiations to be done to strike up these deals - and in the meantime - no UK trade.

So all the irish beef that the UK buy will go to France? Who said the French want it?

 

[Amiga500]

So all the irish beef that the UK buy will go to France? Who said the French want it?

I've been modifying the post before seeing your quote of it.

The Irish beef market may wither significantly - but that'll be somewhat/largely/more than (delete as applicable in 6 months) compensated for by businesses moving from the UK to Ireland to continue trading within the EU.


Ireland will suffer. But Ireland will not suffer anything like the same disaster as the UK.


Just looking into some figures.
The UK exports around 110k tonnes of beef /year, while Ireland exports to the UK around 250k tonnes/year.

So you could reasonably expect a dip of Irish beef exports to half current levels. US and Chinese markets are taking more Irish beef each year, but it's a large gap. I'd expect the EU would have a support fund similar to that when Russia closed its markets.

 

[Amiga500]

I'm also now leaning toward the opinion that the "guidance" of leading Brexiteers like Lord Snooty, Boris Johnson and Liam Fox is so erroneous and misleading that it ought to be considered as state treason.

If a politician deliberately lies and misleads to further their own personal financial position, are they legally vulnerable to prosecution of any sort?

 

[General Melchett]

A no deal Brexit surely won't happen. May is simply keeping that option on the table to try and scare MPs into backing her deal. The uncertainty this is creating doesn't seem to bother her.

When it comes to the crunch I can see a last minute extension to Article 50 being granted. A no deal Brexit would cause all sorts of social unrest and she won't want that happening on her watch. The London riots will be nothing compared to what would happen here. No trade agreements ready for signing, no systems in place at borders - they are not even close to being ready for a no deal exit.

 

[General Melchett]

I'm also now leaning toward the opinion that the "guidance" of leading Brexiteers like Lord Snooty, Boris Johnson and Liam Fox is so erroneous and misleading that it ought to be considered as state treason.

If a politician deliberately lies and misleads to further their own personal financial position, are they legally vulnerable to prosecution of any sort?

Fox is the International Trade Secretary. How many trade agreements does he have in the pipeline ready for signing on 30 March? Zero. So it just shows how well prepared his department is for a no deal exit. The Brexiteers just can't admit that their fantasy Brexit is/was pure fantasy.

 

[Amiga500]

Fox is the International Trade Secretary. How many trade agreements does he have in the pipeline ready for signing on 30 March? Zero.

But its even worse than that.

Even to establish basic trading rights under the WTO - the UK needs a "new" agreement. Their existing agreement is with the UK as part of the EU.

So when the UK leave the EU, then they leave their existing WTO agreements as well. Furthermore, instead of negotiating with an establish bloc that have delegated negotiation to a team (who, to be fair to them - have done an excellent job of managing the expectations and demands of their 27 member countries), you have to negotiate with a disparate 160+ states that will have to relay and consult with their political hierarchies in any negotiation for a new agreement.

If you seek to sign a bi-lateral agreement, then you need to consider the effects of that on any wider WTO agreement, first and foremost is the principle: "Grant someone a special favour and you have to do the same for all other WTO members."


Then there is the obvious thing to consider, of the 34 countries deemed OECD High-income, 25 of those are in the EU... that leaves 8 to trade with:
Israel
Japan
South Korea
Canada
US
Australia
New Zealand
Chile

That is not much.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Is the SNP still pinning all their leave promises on North Sea Oil? or has it diversified more?

I think the key arguments would be:

i) you won't be governed by goons in a dysfunctional Parliament who operate at the whim of increasingly right wing media elements (which was the main reason for my personal Yes vote).

ii) there will be economic challenges in the short term (possibly worse than those simply from Brexit (i.e. a dose of realism rather than the fantasy of the Brexit campaign)

iii) that the country is already pretty much 100% self-sufficient in electricity due to the rubbish weather and ultimately will become a net exporter of energy that is far cheaper to produce than fossil fuels and nuclear.

Personally, I think a second Scottish referndum has almost zero chance regardless of a soft or hard Brexit due to the added complexities that these situations bring. Plus, currency remains an issue that partisan elements of the media can warp out of all proportion. Ironically, whilst the Euro is ever more popular with the public in the Eurozone (after a relatively shaky couple of years), the public here are so ill informed that they think joining the Euro would be like burning money rather than a step towards a more stable currency than than Sterling by any objective measure.

So we'll just return to that old Scottish past time of mumping or gums and criticising those who voted No first time around. The thought of impending bitterness and self righteousness is already making me all warm and fuzzy inside.

 

[Gavin]

Anyone keeping an eye on the situation in Venezuela?

USA, UK and Europe all threatening to view the opposition party as the government of the country if the socialist, elected leader (supported by Russia, China, Cuba) does not hold elections in the next week.

USA calling the humanitarian crisis the reason for their pressure on the current government, even though it is the economic sanctions put on the country by the USA which has caused inflation to rise so much and 2 million people to flee. Not to mention the fact the Venezuela is extremely rich in oil and the current government wouldn't fall in line with the USA concerning trade deals (I believe) .

Reminds me of Iraq, Libya and Syria if I'm honest.