A Political Thread pt. 2

[TRF_Olyy]

"People fighting for the IDF should be arrested and it's illegal"

I'm guessing it's this line that he's been suspended over rather than the effing Israel one
The law says you can be arrested for joining a foreign army to fight against a country that the UK is not at war with, which is why the home office website says if you go to Ukraine to fight you can be prosecuted on your return - the UK doesn't recognise Palestine as a state so in official terms they consider Brits joining the IDF as people involved in fighting against local insurgency rather than nation vs nation warfare. Dodgy loophole, really.
Bit of a stretch to say that it's anti-semitic - I guess they're trying to say he's wanting to arrest Jews for no reason, but that's a bit of a stretch.

I suppose it's like @Saintjay says - they're leaning on the context of when he said it and who he said it to.
A "won't someone rid me of this meddlesome priest" kind of situation

 

[Welsh Exile]

Good decisive leadership from Starmer imo. If you're a party in waiting you can't have MPs gong around saying "**** Isreal" or whatever. Getting power and exert pressure then but saying that kind of stuff in public is stupid and Starmer was right to get rid.

 

[The Seeker]

Report reveals date of expected verdict in Trump fraud case after judge raised perjury concerns

Judge Engoron's "impatience" with ex-president's lawyers "potentially a bad omen for Mr. Trump," NY Times reports

www.yahoo.com

 

[The Seeker]

 

[The Seeker]

 

[Bada-Bing!]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68277176?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=65cee8216e1cf501ac5dcd60%26%262024-02-16T05%3A01%3A04.564Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:20b910a3-806e-475e-b15e-5ec53fcdfbcc&pinned_post_asset_id=65cee8216e1cf501ac5dcd60&pinned_post_type=share

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I understand no politician wants to admit things are bad but the Tories really sound hollow making excuses for all their by-election defeats.

 

[Reiser99]

I understand no politician wants to admit things are bad but the Tories really sound hollow making excuses for all their by-election defeats.

Only point they do have is it still seems like it's more anti tory than pro labour many of these votes, which is worrying because either in the GE or the next they could easily vote Tory again.

 

[General Melchett]

I understand no politician wants to admit things are bad but the Tories really sound hollow making excuses for all their by-election defeats.

What's also quite telling is that Labour's recent U-turns and antisemitism issues aren't really hurting them which shows how strongly people feel about the Tories.

 

[Which Tyler]

I understand no politician wants to admit things are bad but the Tories really sound hollow making excuses for all their by-election defeats.

Yeah "we lost because turnout was down" is a bit hollow when turnout was down mostly due to last-minute labour scandals.

What's also quite telling is that Labour's recent U-turns and antisemitism issues aren't really hurting them which shows how strongly people feel about the Tories.

I disagree that it didn't hurt them. My reading is that it did, just not enough for them to lose, see above.


ETA: Actually checking the figures a bit for by-elections in the last 12 months
46.2% - Uxbridge and South Ruislip (tory hold)
44.8% - Selby and Ainsty (tory => lab)
44.2% - Somerton and Frome (tory => L.D.)
37.2% - Rutherglen and Hamilton West (SNP=> lab)
44.0% - Mid Bedfordshire (tory => lab)
35.9% - Tamworth (tory => lab)
Average turnout = 42.1%

38.0% - Wellingborough (tory => lab)
37.1% - Kingswood (tory => lab)

So had yesterday's 2 reached the 40% that's generally considered a decent turnout:
Wellingborough would have had another 2,360 votes, which wouldn't overturn a 6,436 majority, even if every single one of those extra voters had voted tory.
Kingswood would have had another 1,944 votes, which also wouldn't have overturned a 2,501 majority, even if every single one of those extra voters had voted tory.

If EVERY extra voter had voted tory, they'd have needed a turnout of 45.1% in Wellingborough or 41% in Kingswood.


On top of that, of course, is that the torys are the biggest supporters of the terrible first past the post electoral system, so they get to complain the least when the system works against them.

 

[General Melchett]

Yeah "we lost because turnout was down" is a bit hollow when turnout was down mostly due to last-minute labour scandals.

I disagree that it didn't hurt them. My reading is that it did, just not enough for them to lose, see above.

I may have missed it but is there a poll confirming that's why turnout was down? My understanding is that BE turnouts close to GE's are usually low anyway.

 

[Which Tyler]

I may have missed it but is there a poll confirming that's why turnout was down? My understanding is that BE turnouts close to GE's are usually low anyway.

I don't think I've ever seen polling on the reasons that people choose not to vote.
It's estimates and reading of the situation.
The thing that would potentially depress labour votes (anti-semitism, delayed response and slashing the green deal) has been in the news for a few days.
The thing that would potentially depress conservative votes (official recession) appeared in the news yesterday. Whilst the polls were open, Hunt was still throwing red-meat tax-cuts at voters.


The figures I was collecting whilst you responded above also show that turnout was lower than recent, but within the range.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

John Curtice: By-election results leave Tories with mountain to climb

Polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice says the party will be worried by the scale of its defeats by Labour.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Reiser99]

John Curtice: By-election results leave Tories with mountain to climb

Polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice says the party will be worried by the scale of its defeats by Labour.

www.bbc.co.uk

I just noticed reform did well. If they performed like that nationally at a GE then it would really hit the Conservatives hard.

 

[General Melchett]

I just noticed reform did well. If they performed like that nationally at a GE then it would really hit the Conservatives hard.

I can't put my finger on it but I just smell something fishy about Reform. On the face of it looks like they're splitting the Tory vote and doing them harm but it's also a convenient place for disillusioned Tory voters to go temporarily rather than switching to LibDem or even Labour.

Given that Labour look like shoe-ins to win later this year it wouldn't surprise me if the Tories and Reform join forces closer to the next GE with a view to limiting Labour to one term. They'd able to attack Labour's record even if they've only been in power for 4-5 years. Cue the return of Fatty Johnson who becomes Tory leader just before the next election.

 

[General Melchett]

BBC News - Russian opposition leader Navalny has died, prison service says

Putin critic Alexei Navalny dies in Arctic Circle jail, says Russia

Jailed Russian politician Alexei Navalny has died in a penal colony, the country's prison service says.

www.bbc.co.uk

This guy stood up to Putin, got badly poisoned and was brave enough to return to Russia knowing this could well happen.

 

[Welsh Exile]

BBC News - Russian opposition leader Navalny has died, prison service says

Putin critic Alexei Navalny dies in Arctic Circle jail, says Russia

Jailed Russian politician Alexei Navalny has died in a penal colony, the country's prison service says.

www.bbc.co.uk

This guy stood up to Putin, got badly poisoned and was brave enough to return to Russia knowing this could well happen.

Can't say I'm surprised but there is a bit of me that thought they'd just keep him in there. No doubt the report will say he died of natural causes or some BS, made up reason.

 

[Which Tyler]

Yeah, the natural causes of going for a wander in the arctic circle in just jeans and t-shirt (at gun-point, naturally)

 

[Reiser99]

Can't say I'm surprised but there is a bit of me that thought they'd just keep him in there. No doubt the report will say he died of natural causes or some BS, made up reason.

fell off a balcony

 

[General Melchett]

I think it was Blackadder the third when a by election was triggered in a rotten borough when the incumbent MP accidentally brutally cut off his head while combing his hair. Don't think Putin has used that one yet.