There is absolutely a real danger of it escalating into a global war give Iran and North Korea are now firmly committed to Russia's side and are getting god knows what to pay for the drones and shells they are supplying Russia with.
As for being toothless I'm not getting that. Yes they have lost a lot of men and equipment but the Russian economy has almost fully gone over to a war footing with production of armes running at about 30% of its GDP. It can sustain this due to very low national debt before the war. It's production of missiles has tripled and it's vehicle production is increasing, they also haven't fully mobilised yet.
Russia has struggled to defeat Ukraine but it has and is learning, they have managed to cut off Ukraine's weapon supplies.
There could be a very real scenario where you have a very battle hardened and bloodied Russian army sat on the border of NATO, with a political elite screaming for more war