Arizona is like Texas and Georgia it's shifting Democrat due to tax breaks and large firms setting up there. That's leading to people outside the state to move there and these firms employ people who skew Democrat. The company I work for has set massive offices in both Phoenix and Atlanta.
That was my impression last night when I went to bed with the BBC calling it "on a knife edge" while Smarkets had Trump @1.3. Looking at the odds when I woke up (late) this morning, they were about right. Whether this was thanks to shrewd analysis or being slower to pick up the trends that the rest of the MSM was following is another question.
Historically yes, but it's drifted firmly into the red camp in the last few years. Another of the states Trump needed to have a chance while Biden could miss and still win.
According to my (super weak) reading of it, it's because people have woken up and realised that there are a huge number of postal votes, that will take a long time to count and that they will favour Biden massively. Trump starting to kick off might have been taken as an indicator of the fact that he knows he's lost too.
Who are these bookies who set their own prices these days? Surely they just offer a few ticks under exchange prices. Even if they wanted to do so, they wouldn't be in business for long if they deviated far enough from the market to create arbs.
Thanks for that, the reports I'd read were based on the defeict to be made up, not on percentages, but what you say makes perfect sense. The guy whose Tweets I keep parroting seems to think that the PA postal vote is sufficiently in favour of Biden to make up that gap:
