I know you're not throwing a jab. Don't worry.
My issue is the evidence i see doesnt appear to back up your stance.
When was the last time Wales beat the all-blacks?
When was the last time Scotland beat South Africa?
Arg and Ire faced 4 times in WCs. We won 3 and lost the other by one point.
Let me be honest about how i've felt when facing other tier 1 nations during WCs. By no means does this represent what most arg's feel.
- South Africa and NZ, we need a small miracle.
- England. Depends on the year but they generally got out number for some reason. Rock beats scissors kinda thing. Even when they've a bad year (say clearly under Irish/French level) they seem to counter us rather effectively for some reason. Styles make fights, etc.
- Fra, Ire, Wal, Scot, Aus: clumping a bit too much in this group, granted. If we face them in a mid/end of-year series, i prolly wouldn't bet on us.
If we face em on a WC, i like our odds. Not always, but more often than not. I know many would say Ire/Fra should deserve a league of their own. Not sure, maybe. I think history does play a role and the pressure is on them.
To be honest, and i'd be interested to hear what others have to say, i don't think the nations in this group feel rather comfy when facing us either. WC, not friendly.
- Ita and Jap: our game to lose. Still.
That's one of the reasons i'm optimistic about 2023. Chances are we end up second in our group and get to face either Aus or Wales. The pecking order in our group seems clearer. And if (daydreaming) we make it to the semi we would face an arguably better team but one which's path has been considerably harder.
I like those odds.
If you were to tell me right now we get to face Wales on 1/4 and if we win, Ireland on a semi, i'd reply "where do i need to sign".
We are a very temperamental team, and that is one of our worst flaws. But when the stars align we can shine. And we tend to punch above our weight in WCs.
Consistency is not our strength and that is why WCs probably favor us. Group games are mostly locked from minute 0 with a few exceptions. If we manage to align those stars in 1 or 2 games, vs Wales/Aus and battered Ireland or France, who knows?
Not the most likely scenario but not that far-fetched either.
I for one don't give a flying turd about 2022 nor 2023 TRC's. Sure, i'd like to see Arg do well and win, but I am giving Cheika a blank check till the world cup.
He knows our players, he knows the opponents, he knows what's at stake and i consider him a smart man. If he believes this is the right time to take chances, experiment and try out things, well, i'm ok with that. I trust his judgment.
He can lose every game by a landslide until the 8th of nov 2023. Cruz's stamp of approval.
I expect to see dividends after that, tho.
PS: I'll ***** and moan about every knock-on and fwd pass on these boards, but that's a completely different matter.
