[2020 Autumn Nations Cup] Wales vs England (28/11/20)

[TRF_Olyy]

Saw a stat on twitter:

England have used 4 different starting 9s in the last 6 years
Wales have used 5 in the last 6 tests

 

[BPM]

In terms of managed evolution of the England team, I can't dispute anything you say about the starting 15, but if you take the whole 23 to the next world cup you could build a pack of:

Ellis Genge (28)
Luke Cowan-Dickie (30)
Will Stuart (27)
Maro Itoje (28)
Jonny Hill (29)
Tom Curry (25)
Sam Underhill (27)
Ben Earl (25)

And Jack Willis (26) and Sinckler (30) are the beginnings of an excellent bench. Yeah, Earl at 8 is a stretch, but I'd be happy to take that pack as first choice at the next 6N.

By contrast, the youngest backs I can make are
Robson (31)
Ford (30)
Watson (29)
Farrell (32)
Slade (30)
Joseph (32)
Daly (Turns 31 during the tournament)

The backs are in pretty poor shape come next rwc. But Thorley (27 by next rwc), Lawrence (24), Marchant (27), and Malins (26) all got caps, and we know Cokanisiga (26) is on Jones' radar.

I reckon if you took the current EPS you could make a good XV of 30 or under... with the exceptions of 9, 12, and possibly 8. I'm not worried about the evolution of the team except in those positions.

Good summary.

If we were to do a similar breakdown for the other Tier 1 countries, I'm not sure many would have a better age profile across the squad.

It's not like we're still relying on a Sexton or AWJ even when they're looking increasingly past it.

 

[Blindside]

Wales looks to be massively outclassed in the backrow and midfield. I feel really sorry for Pivac, it feels like he's trying to breed a litter from a neutered dog. Bookies give England 16pt start, I think that's underestimating their superiority. If the backrow doesn't perform, the front five will be under pressure and it could get ugly. Faletau needs to regain the form that made him one of the best 8's in the world, hes a shadow of that player. Players need to unexpectedly emerge and England needs to misfire to even keep the score close, an empty stadium makes home advantage an irrelevance. England by 20-30 pts

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I wonder if Wales from the off will come out with the aim of just doing a load of shithousery to try to get under Englands skin? It has clearly been an intentional ploy they used against both Ireland and Georgia, that or the alternative which is that the team are just losing all discipline. I think it's the former because they were able to stop the second sanctions were threatened.

 

[Blindside]

I wonder if Wales from the off will come out with the aim of just doing a load of shithousery to try to get under Englands skin? It has clearly been an intentional ploy they used against both Ireland and Georgia, that or the alternative which is that the team are just losing all discipline. I think it's the former because they were able to stop the second sanctions were threatened.

Those days are long gone, a bit of shirt pulling, pushing and gurning is not going to change the course of a rugby match at this level.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Those days are long gone, a bit of shirt pulling, pushing and gurning is not going to change the course of a rugby match at this level.

Most likely not, which makes it all the more silly when sides decide to engage in it. Currently the Italian and Welsh have made it a central part of how they play under the excuse of "creating your own atmosphere".

 

[Duck a l'Orange]

Saw a stat on twitter:

England have used 4 different starting 9s in the last 6 years
Wales have used 5 in the last 6 tests

Ben Youngs, Danny Care, Richard Wigglesworth, Dan Robson?

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Ben Youngs, Danny Care, Richard Wigglesworth, Dan Robson?

Heinz - wigglesworth must not have started/the stat is wrong?

 

[Leinster Fan]

Heinz - wigglesworth must not have started/the stat is wrong?

Wigglesworth definitely started against us in 2018 anyway. Think that was the only game though so wouldn't be surprised if the guy on twitter missed it.

Although has Robson started a game?

 

[Nudger]

Ford's only 27 and Farrell 29....So we have 4-6 years left of this...

Its only an issue because we don't have any inside centres

 

[BPM]

Yes, but then the issue would be that Farrell is the default at 10, despite not being the better option.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Wigglesworth definitely started against us in 2018 anyway. Think that was the only game though so wouldn't be surprised if the guy on twitter missed it.

Although has Robson started a game?

Ding ding ding: winner!
Wiggy started vs Ireland in 18,
The others are Youngs, Care and Heinz
All Robson's caps are from the bench

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Ding ding ding: winner!
Wiggy started vs Ireland in 18,
The others are Youngs, Care and Heinz
All Robson's caps are from the bench

Now let's compare centre partnerships.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Which will tell us very little about them. Jones has really missed a golden opportunity to start a few of them and see what they're really made of.


How so? We did the bare minimum against Italy and Georgia who are rubbish and failed to really put away a moderate Irish side in clear transition. Doesn't really tell us much, but not being clinical always gives the opposition hope if they don't get blown away early doors. Fra would certainly fancy their chances, likewise the Boks if they ever play again, poss even Arg at the moment. You can never discount NZ despite recent troubles and you never know what the Aussies are capable of on any given day. And Sco would probably fancy a crack esp at Murrayfield. I'm not saying we couldn't beat all those, particularly at HQ, but equally I wouldn't be laying too much cash on it either.

One reason why some people think we're convincing is that a lot of other teams are clearly in transition at the moment with either big changes of player and / or coaching staff while we're not. I'm all for continuity and experience but that has to be balanced with bringing youngsters in to ensure managed evolution. Looking at the starting XV, which is pretty close to first choice:

30+: 3
29: 4
28: 2
27: 3
26:1
Under 25: 2. Underhill & Curry....kids eh, what do they know?

That's the kind of profile you might look for going into a RWC, not at the end of the first year of a new cycle. At the next RWC all will be 30+ except Itoje (29) and the kamikaze kids. You've also got the likes of Lawes and Marler for whom 30 is already in the rear view mirror. Now there's no reason why each and every one of those players can't make it to the next RWC, but realistically several will be well past their best or more injury prone. You don't want a side aging together and then being forced into changes and it seems we're starting to run that risk.

Some of the bench is quite exciting, but they average age 25. Of the 8, maybe only 4 have realistic prospects of being long term starters and 2 of those have Curry and Underhill in the way.

Just call me Nostradamus. Owen Slot wrote a similar, if less erudite piece in the Times this morning.

This will be our most capped starting XV ever with 806. Compare that to Wales and we really should be handing out a beating.

Also in the article Jones says that we're playing the way we are as the attack is the last thing to sort out before the next RWC and he doesn't want to give opposition coaches the chance to over analyse us beforehand! Load of b*llocks in my book. By that rationale we probably shouldn't bother tackling either as there's a rumour that opposition coaches analyse defensive patterns too. Actually, why don't we just not bother playing at all and go into a 3 year long training camp on a remote Greek island?

 

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

We must find a decent 12 before the World Cup, surely.

 

[EdBirch]

Who would you say are the current options for 12?

 

[TRF_Olyy]

We must find a decent 12 before the World Cup, surely.

Two English 12s starting for Wales tomorrow

Who would you say are the current options for 12?

Redpath the only one I can think of - playing really well for Bath atm, too.
Realistically he should be in the EPS for Marchant atm (nothing against Marchant, but he's obviously behind Slade, Lawrence and JJ at 13 so why is he there when there's zero 12s?)

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Two English 12s starting for Wales tomorrow


Redpath the only one I can think of - playing really well for Bath atm, too.
Realistically he should be in the EPS for Marchant atm (nothing against Marchant, but he's obviously behind Slade, Lawrence and JJ at 13 so why is he there when there's zero 12s?)

What is this "12" thing you speak of? How long has it been since England actually had a 12? Hope it ends up like the flankers, years of making do with mediocrity and then suddenly loads of 12's appear out of nowhere.

 

[EdBirch]

Two English 12s starting for Wales tomorrow


Redpath the only one I can think of - playing really well for Bath atm, too.
Realistically he should be in the EPS for Marchant atm (nothing against Marchant, but he's obviously behind Slade, Lawrence and JJ at 13 so why is he there when there's zero 12s?)

Agree regarding Redpath and Marchant. it's sad that it's a struggle to think of anyone else that is a genuine 12. Back row depth was a challenge for a long time and now we have more depth than we can handle. 12 has been an issue for over a decade imo

 

[Which Tyler]

Too soon for Redpath to be anything more than an apprentice player (but he should be there for that).
I'd like to see what Devoto and James could do at 12 as well - at least to take a look at them in training.

Personally, I'd also like to see Slade play 12 outside Ford