[2020 Autumn Nations Cup] Wales vs England (28/11/20)

[klitarris]

Really hope we don't just kick the ball every 10 seconds again. After watching the last two games I fear Wales might just cut us to spreads. You can't just defend all day.

Our weaker defenders (like Ford) are bound to make a defensive mistakes at some point if we carry on like this.

Ford is actually a better defender than a lot of people make out. While you don't get many dominant tackles from him, he is pretty good at clinging on like a limpet and doesn't miss many. I'd guess that Farrell actually misses more.

I can't see Wales cutting us to shreds. Mitchell and Jones are savvy enough to know that Wales will have noted the chip over the top from Burns last week and will doubtless give it a try early on. I'm sure Wales will play a game plan to stretch us more than Ireland did but I'm confident we'll be able to handle it. That said, while I'm confident of an England win Wales are always capable of pulling something out of the bag!

 

[Goodey]

Really hope we don't just kick the ball every 10 seconds again. After watching the last two games I fear Wales might just cut us to spreads. You can't just defend all day.

Our weaker defenders (like Ford) are bound to make a defensive mistakes at some point if we carry on like this.

This is like an experiment to see how many popular misconceptions you can get in one short post

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Nice to see we're blooding the youngsters....

JJ on the wing really hacks me off, but other than that it's pretty close to first choice although I would have liked to see Genge and Stuart start.

No excuses this week.

If Wales get within 10 it's all down to the mystical powers of AWJ.

 

[Wendigo7]

More caps for the newbies who will hopefully be on in the second half when we have a very large lead.

Very intimidating side to face now. Probably, probably the best team in the world right now, would just like to see us do more in the midfield. Do we have the players to do that without sacrificing other parts of the team needlessly. I don't know.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Last time Wales beat us it was by beating us at the aerial and kicking game. I expect this is the tactic they will try to use and basically play the same gameplan we are (pin us back, hard kick chase and try to force us to play out of our 22). I don't think they will look at battering their way through us. I don't trust JJ or Daly under the high ball so I feel Wales will be dropping bombs on them all game with Biggar looking at shorter range up and unders through the middle. We have to work out how we are going to deal with all that as contesting in the air and defending against such a game plan is not something I've yet seen England dominate. We play our plan well when we have the opposition pinned back, we don't play it so well when we are the ones pinned back and needing to get up field.

 

[ncurd]

If Wales get within 10 it's all down to the mystical nonexistent powers of AWJ.

FIFY

 

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

This is like an experiment to see how many popular misconceptions you can get in one short post

Umm no. Who is the weakest defender in our team from that lot if not Ford?

I'm not saying he's poor but teams will often target the weakest (often 9 or 10) over and over again. When our tactic is to defend for extended periods of time, it's going to take more of a toll on Ford than any other especially if they target him again and again.

In term of Wales cutting us up, this is based on my entire rugby watching life. When we travel to Wales, they always pull out their A game and it's usually their performance of the year. If we give them loads of ball then there is that chance that they will do that. Let's not pretend like we did anything other than tackle and kick in the Ireland game. Ireland were terrible and really inexperienced and we still couldn't put any well worked attacks together. We scored 2 lucky tries. I

I'm not saying we aren't in form but there are clearly issues with the shape of our backs and the game plan. Not sure what is going on but it's not all rosy at the moment.

 

[ncurd]

Consider the last 4 years where Ford been our No. 1 10 for the vast majority of it. How often has the target Ford because his defence is weak actually been successful?

Why the hell are we still talking about it.like it's a major issue....

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Consider the last 4 years where Ford been our No. 1 10 for the vast majority of it. How often has the target Ford because his defence is weak actually been successful?

Why the hell are we still talking about it.like it's a major issue....

This, the combined total of all the ground Ford has ever conceded in a game doesn't even add up to the amount we lose from a single braindead penalty. I'm convinced people's perception is still heavily skewed by that 1 game against Wasps where Hughes ran right through him multiple times. Every year Wales said they were going to smash through Ford with Roberts when he played for them, every year they failed to do that.

 

[ncurd]

This, the combined total of all the ground Ford has ever conceded in a game doesn't even add up to the amount we lose from a single braindead penalty. I'm convinced people's perception is still heavily skewed by that 1 game against Wasps where Hughes ran right through him multiple times. Every year Wales said they were going to smash through Ford with Roberts when he played for them, every year they failed to do that.

Faz is more likely to cost us far more in the yellow/red card he's going to get someday than Ford ever will....

Look I'm not going to pretend he's Wilko but I'm tired of it being a debating point. When he first came on to the international level there were genuine questions, but surely we are long past that now. The real question are about how when on the backfoot he can possibly try a little too hard....but thats small guff when behind a losing pack.

 

[Which Tyler]

It's like 2016 6N all over again.
I miss those days - no lockdowns, no Brexit, no Trump...
Endless debates on whether it's better to make 10/10 tackles losing 2m each, or make 8/10 tackles, gaining 1m each, but losing 30m for each miss.

 

[Jashay]

Wales' injury woes are biting hard there. Loads of big names out; Navidi, Owens, JD, Liam Williams, Tipuric. North not picked, although that might actually be for the best; that's a tasty back 3. And they've gone for their best scrummaging props whereas England have gone for their worst.

England are starting Ford at 10, and that's basically all I wanted to see (barring insane flights of fancy like 'not starting Youngs'). Much better than Faz for distributing to our somewhat odd back selection.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

More caps for the newbies who will hopefully be on in the second half when we have a very large lead.

Which will tell us very little about them. Jones has really missed a golden opportunity to start a few of them and see what they're really made of.

Very intimidating side to face now. Probably, probably the best team in the world right now,.

How so? We did the bare minimum against Italy and Georgia who are rubbish and failed to really put away a moderate Irish side in clear transition. Doesn't really tell us much, but not being clinical always gives the opposition hope if they don't get blown away early doors. Fra would certainly fancy their chances, likewise the Boks if they ever play again, poss even Arg at the moment. You can never discount NZ despite recent troubles and you never know what the Aussies are capable of on any given day. And Sco would probably fancy a crack esp at Murrayfield. I'm not saying we couldn't beat all those, particularly at HQ, but equally I wouldn't be laying too much cash on it either.

One reason why some people think we're convincing is that a lot of other teams are clearly in transition at the moment with either big changes of player and / or coaching staff while we're not. I'm all for continuity and experience but that has to be balanced with bringing youngsters in to ensure managed evolution. Looking at the starting XV, which is pretty close to first choice:

30+: 3
29: 4
28: 2
27: 3
26:1
Under 25: 2. Underhill & Curry....kids eh, what do they know?

That's the kind of profile you might look for going into a RWC, not at the end of the first year of a new cycle. At the next RWC all will be 30+ except Itoje (29) and the kamikaze kids. You've also got the likes of Lawes and Marler for whom 30 is already in the rear view mirror. Now there's no reason why each and every one of those players can't make it to the next RWC, but realistically several will be well past their best or more injury prone. You don't want a side aging together and then being forced into changes and it seems we're starting to run that risk.

Some of the bench is quite exciting, but they average age 25. Of the 8, maybe only 4 have realistic prospects of being long term starters and 2 of those have Curry and Underhill in the way.

 

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

I guess people can't read, because all I said was he is one of our weaker defenders (which he is), not that he is a liability or anything.

We are still discussing this because people missed the point about defending for long periods and players making mistakes. I used Ford as an example but could have also used billy or George as they will be knackered.

 

[Nudger]

I guess people can't read, because all I said was he is one of our weaker defenders (which he is), not that he is a liability or anything.

We are still discussing this because people missed the point about defending for long periods and players making mistakes. I used Ford as an example but could have also used billy or George as they will be knackered.

Generally the standoff is the weakest tackler in any team.

 

[Which Tyler]

And note, you'd said "defender" not "tackler".

Ford probably is one of our weakest tacklers, bit he's a bloody strong defender because he's in the right place doing what needs to be done, but ultimately, he's small.

Comparatively, Farrell is a much strong tackler, but a weaker defender. We all know what he can do in the tackle, but that includes giving away penalties and cards, and frequently (but getting better) leaving dog legs for attackers to waltz through

 

[Jashay]

One reason why some people think we're convincing is that a lot of other teams are clearly in transition at the moment with either big changes of player and / or coaching staff while we're not. I'm all for continuity and experience but that has to be balanced with bringing youngsters in to ensure managed evolution. Looking at the starting XV, which is pretty close to first choice:

30+: 3
29: 4
28: 2
27: 3
26:1
Under 25: 2. Underhill & Curry....kids eh, what do they know?

That's the kind of profile you might look for going into a RWC, not at the end of the first year of a new cycle. At the next RWC all will be 30+ except Itoje (29) and the kamikaze kids. You've also got the likes of Lawes and Marler for whom 30 is already in the rear view mirror. Now there's no reason why each and every one of those players can't make it to the next RWC, but realistically several will be well past their best or more injury prone. You don't want a side aging together and then being forced into changes and it seems we're starting to run that risk.

Some of the bench is quite exciting, but they average age 25. Of the 8, maybe only 4 have realistic prospects of being long term starters and 2 of those have Curry and Underhill in the way.

In terms of managed evolution of the England team, I can't dispute anything you say about the starting 15, but if you take the whole 23 to the next world cup you could build a pack of:

Ellis Genge (28)
Luke Cowan-Dickie (30)
Will Stuart (27)
Maro Itoje (28)
Jonny Hill (29)
Tom Curry (25)
Sam Underhill (27)
Ben Earl (25)

And Jack Willis (26) and Sinckler (30) are the beginnings of an excellent bench. Yeah, Earl at 8 is a stretch, but I'd be happy to take that pack as first choice at the next 6N.

By contrast, the youngest backs I can make are
Robson (31)
Ford (30)
Watson (29)
Farrell (32)
Slade (30)
Joseph (32)
Daly (Turns 31 during the tournament)

The backs are in pretty poor shape come next rwc. But Thorley (27 by next rwc), Lawrence (24), Marchant (27), and Malins (26) all got caps, and we know Cokanisiga (26) is on Jones' radar.

I reckon if you took the current EPS you could make a good XV of 30 or under... with the exceptions of 9, 12, and possibly 8. I'm not worried about the evolution of the team except in those positions.

 

[Greeno]

In terms of managed evolution of the England team, I can't dispute anything you say about the starting 15, but if you take the whole 23 to the next world cup you could build a pack of:

Ellis Genge (28)
Luke Cowan-Dickie (30)
Will Stuart (27)
Maro Itoje (28)
Jonny Hill (29)
Tom Curry (25)
Sam Underhill (27)
Ben Earl (25)

And Jack Willis (26) and Sinckler (30) are the beginnings of an excellent bench. Yeah, Earl at 8 is a stretch, but I'd be happy to take that pack as first choice at the next 6N.

By contrast, the youngest backs I can make are
Robson (31)
Ford (30)
Watson (29)
Farrell (32)
Slade (30)
Joseph (32)
Daly (Turns 31 during the tournament)

The backs are in pretty poor shape come next rwc. But Thorley (27 by next rwc), Lawrence (24), Marchant (27), and Malins (26) all got caps, and we know Cokanisiga (26) is on Jones' radar.

I reckon if you took the current EPS you could make a good XV of 30 or under... with the exceptions of 9, 12, and possibly 8. I'm not worried about the evolution of the team except in those positions.

For me you can have guys who are over 30 at a World Cup often there experience can be a huge asset. I expect all those back you have mention if fit to make the World Cup squad but hopefully few more lads like Lawrence will step up. In the pack most front 5 forwards peak around or just after 30. So I expect players like George to still be involved.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Can't wait for England to get a new 10 so this whole Ford vs Farrell thing can die a death

 

[ncurd]

Can't wait for England to get a new 10 so this whole Ford vs Farrell thing can die a death

Ford's only 27 and Farrell 29....So we have 4-6 years left of this...