I think considering the type of rugby that is played in the play-offs and the Highlanders dip in form the Sharks should take this one. It's mostly academic though as they lost the season when they lost to the cheaters (and us at home to an extent) it will take a crazy performance to beat an in form Crusaders side in Christchurch and a miracle to beat the Tahs should they get that far.
Anyway anything can happen but the odds of the Sharks winning this are probably one of the lowest, I would favour everyone else except maybe the Highlanders (and maybe the Brumbies) above them. Doesn't mean I won't be supporting the Sharks wholeheartedly of course!
Really the Warratahs deserve to win, and if the Sharks can't win it, I hope they do. NZ as a conference has been great, but they've all had enough issues that they don't really look like a championship side.
I certainly agree the Sharks should be clear favourites, but to be honest I don't actually think the Highlanders are having a dip in form. Yes we have lost a lot of games recently, but I think that has more to do with the quality of opposition we have been playing. At the start of the season we had a run of 'easy' matches allowing us to get near the top of the points table. Over the 2nd half of the season we have had far more difficult matches - in the last two weeks we have played the 1st and 2nd ranked teams at their home grounds!
It should be an interesting clash of styles in the weekend. Looking at some season stats (
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby/statscentre.cfm) it was interesting to note how few tries the Sharks have scored this season (29 - 2nd last in the competition), and how few clean breaks they have made (78 - again 2nd last in the competition). In contrast the Highlanders are near the top of the table in terms of clean breaks and defenders beaten (but only in the middle of the table in terms of tries). The big area where the Sharks have a clear edge is the lineout though, with the Highlanders having statistically he 2nd worst lineout in the competition. Statistically both sides win scrums at a similar percentage but I'm sure the Sharks will fancy their chances here, and after seeing the Crusaders score 3 tries from lineout mauls against the Highlanders last weekend I'm sure the Sharks will be targeting the Highlanders in this area too....
If the Highlanders are going to have a chance to pull off the upset obviously they need to be competitive in the set piece. If they get destroyed like they did against the Crusaders they are going to get well beaten again. There are 3 easy things we need to do to improve the lineout (1) Play Ged Robinson at hooker. Mitchell and Coltman have both struggled at lineout time all season. Robinson may not be as powerful as Coltman or as dynamic as Mitchell but he is clearly our best option at hooker in my opinion. I would be happy if he played the full 80 minutes (2) Start Evans at 6. Not only is his work at the breakdown invaluable, but he is also probably our best lineout jumper (either at 2 or at the back). We would lose some physicality with him at 6, but I don't think we are going to beat the Sharks by playing them at their own game (3) Simplify the lineout. For some reason we seemed obsessed with throwing the ball to the back of the lineout (after shuffling back and forwards 20 times). A simple throw to the front (or middle) may not offer quite as quick ball to the backs, but at least we might actually win some of our own ball!
Scrums are a concern for us, and there are no easy solutions that I can see. Our scrum has done well at times during the season (for such an unheralded front-row), but the Sharks front-row is quality. If Fia is fit he will help, but I'm not sure of his status. Stopping the lineout drive will be a challenge. We were actually quite successful at this against the Bulls early this year - we didn't compete and just concentrated on stopping the drive. We seemed to forget how to do this against the Crusaders - hopefully we remember this weekend. The best way though to stop the Sharks using these tactics is simply not allowing them to get lineouts close to our line!
The Highlanders have plenty of firepower in the backs, it's going to be a matter of getting quality ball to them. I think we need to play Sopoaga at 10. He is still a bit erratic (though has improved), and I do worry about his ability to deal with pressure. However he offers much more in attack than Parker, and I think our only chance of winning is by scoring tries (preferably quite a few of them).
