[2014 EOYT] Wales vs New Zealand

[Jaguares]

15 Leigh Halfpenny
14 Alex Cuthbert
13 Jonathan Davies
12 Jamie Roberts
11 George North
10 Dan Biggar
9 Rhys Webb
8 Taulupe Faletau
7 Sam Warburton (c)
6 Dan Lydiate
5 Alun Wyn Jones
4 Jake Ball
3 Samson Lee
2 Richard Hibbard
1 Paul James

Reserves:

16 Scott Baldwin , 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Rhodri Jones, 19 Luke Charteris , 20 Justin Tipuric, 21 Mike Phillips, 22 James Hook, 23 Liam Williams

1. Wyatt Crockett
2. Dane Coles
3. Owen Franks
4. Brodie Retallick
5. Samuel Whitelock
6. Jerome Kaino
7. Richie McCaw (c)
8. Kieran Read
9. Aaron Smith
10. Beauden Barrett
11. Julian Savea
12. Sonny Bill Williams
13. Conrad Smith
14. Charles Piutau
15. Ben Smith

Reserves:

16. Keven Mealamu, 17. Joe Moody, 18 Charlie Faumuina, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Liam Messam, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 Colin Slade,
23 Ryan Crotty

22 November 2014
17:30 GMT (UTC+0)

City: Cardiff
Country: Wales
Stadium: Millennium
Capacity: 74,500
Referee: Wayne Barnes (ENG)

 

[Shaggy]

Should be a nice close test (the last one for the All Blacks, for the year, usually are)

Not sure how many of the team that faced Scotland will be in the match day 23 ... Vito would probably deserve a bench spot,if he can recover from his injury, and Thrush probably deserves the locking spot on the bench too.

I know DC needs time in the 10 jersey at test level, but I guess they will go with Cruden starting, and Barrett off the bench

Hopefully C.Smith will return at 13, but, otherwise SBW at 12 and Fekitoa at 13 would be ok, with Crotty covering from the bench.

If you can believe the stuff from Steve Hansen about this tour being an RWC simulation, then this match will be treated like an RWC final, so the team fielded, should be a full strength side

EDIT - It looks like C.Smith will be there http://www.radiosport.co.nz/sport-news/rugby/high-praise-for-slades-versatility/

 

[Macsen]

I'm starting to despair at Wales' ability to beat the SH sides. You just have to look at their recent - very narrow, yet very consistent - defeats to wonder if there's anything more than ability at play here. They've lost against SA and Australia by one point in so many of their games in the last few years, even when they were a fair bit ahead going into the last 20 minutes.

Ireland, England and even Scotland don't seem to have this particular monkey on their back.

I think the only way Wales are ever going to beat NZ is if they find themselves 20+ points or so in the lead in the second half. As Wales showed against SA away this year, and Ireland against NZ at home last year, if you've got that kind of mental block against a team that's beaten you for decades you need that kind of cushion so that you don't cave in when the inevitable fightback begins. What's the likelyhood of Wales being 20+ points ahead in the second half? Hmmm...

The likely result is a respectable score that flatters Wales a little bit, as it was in the England and Scotland NZ games. Wales will close in during the second half, only for NZ to go up a gear and beat them by 10 or so points.

 

[Shaggy]

I'm starting to despair at Wales' ability to beat the SH sides. You just have to look at their recent - very narrow, yet very consistent - defeats to wonder if there's anything more than ability at play here. They've lost against SA and Australia by one point in so many of their games in the last few years, even when they were a fair bit ahead going into the last 20 minutes.

Ireland, England and even Scotland don't seem to have this particular monkey on their back.

I think the only way Wales are ever going to beat NZ is if they find themselves 20+ points or so in the lead in the second half. As Wales showed against SA away this year, and Ireland against NZ at home last year, if you've got that kind of mental block against a team that's beaten you for decades you need that kind of cushion so that you don't cave in when the inevitable fightback begins. What's the likelyhood of Wales being 20+ points ahead in the second half? Hmmm...

The likely result is a respectable score that flatters Wales a little bit, as it was in the England and Scotland NZ games. Wales will close in during the second half, only for NZ to go up a gear and beat them by 10 or so points.

Well, they'll be no excuses from me if Wales win this one ... the All Blacks should field their strongest team possible, and they should be receiving "strong motivation" this week from Hansen and co, despite what he said about the Scotland game being "just what they needed"

I'm a little worried about the All Black midfield combinations, with Smith coming back in after being away ... I like Crotty's versatility, but would like to see Fekitoa get the bench spot, and maybe get some time on the wing, as it's probably the only way he'll get in the RWC squad (barring injuries), and I think, come RWC time, he'll be a great player to have

 

[The Jones Boy]

Wales can beat anyone on their day, but I wonder about their self belief.
Is it time for Gatland to move on.??
Do Wales need to clean house? Or should they wait for the next RWC, which is where Wales seem to find another gear.
Are there too many older players in the mix?
Wales are brimming with quality and they just need to find their focus in the last 20 minutes when legs start to feel like they are pedalling through molasses.

 

[Shaggy]

Bird and Vito returning to New Zealand

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks/63264007/Victor-Vito-returning-to-New-Zealand-early

 

[Larksea]

Bird is returning home as Retalick is back off the injured list, he probably would not have featured this week anyway.

Vito is returning home injured but probably wouldn't have featured this weekend anyway with Read, Kaino and Messam ahead of him.

have to expect the side to be named to be the current #1 side, the burning question really is who the heck is going to play 10? Just take your pick, it could even be Colin Slade. Who knows...

IMO Dan Carter should start, looking ahead to 2015 there is not much test rugby between now and then. Ideal situation for AB's is Dan goes into the 2015 WC fit and playing as our #1 10. With his class and experience he will be fine. And hr will be much better with Smith at 9 I thin Perenara was awful against Scotland and the cause for the AB's back line stuttering.

Ben Franks is another guys who ticked a few boxes against Scotland and maybe got some attention. SBW seems to have done everything right so far this tour and I expect him to start at 12. Conrad would normally be a shoe in at 13 but he's coming off his worst game in a long time and has had a trip to NZ and back again for personal business, is it a good idea to throw him back in?

1, Crockett
2, Coles
3, O Franks
4, Whitelock
5, Retalick
6, Kaino/Messam (kaino has been carrying an injury)
7, McCaw
8, Read
9, A Smith
10, ????
11, Savea
12, SBW
13, Conrad Smith/Crotty
14, Ben Smith
15, Israel Dagg

16, Mealamu
17, Moody/Ben Franks
18, Faumaina/Ben Franks
19, P Tuipalotu (or has thrush done enough? I dont think so, Pat has been superb so far and he's earned this spot)
20, Liam Messam/Sam Cane (if Kaino is injured)
21, Perenara/Augustine Pulu
22, Barrett/Slade/Carter (will depend on who starts, Cruden lacks versatility for the bench he will either start or not be in the 23)
23, Fekitoa

 

[UlsterRugby2012]

How often has Ben Smith played at 13? Would he not be worth a shout there given C.Smiths recent performances?

 

[Darwin]

Cruden should start at 10 IMO. Barrett on the bench. Carter sent back to NZ to learn how to play rugby. While I can see the logic behind giving Carter more time, starting him versus Wales would likely do more harm than good. He looked woefully short of rugby versus Scotland - one match isn't going to change that - so it wouldn't surprise me if he was poor against Wales too (if selected). That's not going to help his confidence one bit. If Carter is able to play a season of Super Rugby - and his form suggests he is capable of performing at test level - then I would consider playing him again for the ABs.

I think we need to be playing the 10 who will be most likely be starting at the business end of the RWC next year. For me that is Cruden. Carter will almost certainly be watching in the stands (or on his tv at home) injured....

 

[donmcdazzle]

Surely they wouldn't have bothered flying Conrad Smith all the way back over if he wasn't going to be playing? I'd expect him and SBW in the midfield. Dagg, Smith and Savea will be the back 3 even though everyone wants Smith, Piutau, Savea.

Good on Thrush for having a decent game but Tuipolotu offers a whole heap more impact, especially off the bench so I would want to see him there.

10 I'd go with Carter - he needs time playing footy and surely he couldn't be that bad two games in a row? Depends how he is training I guess as he might be just as off the pace as he is during the games so maybe they won't play him. Although I guess the number 2 option is Cruden. His game has been very good bar the goal kicking, which apparently was due to a ****ly injury affecting his technique or something that has now been fixed.

 

[Big Ewis]

I don't think it's going to be close...
The All-Blacks are too fluid. Wales don't have what it takes to break that AB defense, I mean with North or Cuthbert they can get a score maybe but this team just doesn't match up well against the AB. Wales looked pretty good against Australia, but then again Australia has had its issues defensively, and they had a basically shameful result against Fiji. This is the All-Blacks now coming to town...they're certainly not afraid of Millennium Stadium, and Wales, what with their complex, their bad form and limited game strategies will never beat the AB next week, can't find a scenario where that happens. Not really relevant but I'll say it still, the times I've seen Wales come close in this fixture is when they had a bit of fantasy in them; this Gatland side is anything but fantasyische. In fact they're quite Panzer divizione grosse frankfurter. They can eat their broccoli and other 4 fruit and vegs every day for the week, won't be enough.

The All-Blacks are going to exploit them on the outsides, are going to put 3 tons of skill and quickness on them the whole game, the tries will pile up, will be too efficient and adaptive on defense...what, how could Wales possibly beat the AB ? I mean I don't give a sht I like both sides but I'm a neutral: but I ask: how can Wales beat the AB ? They'd have to destroy them defensively, shut the ball down integrally for 80; they'll have to insure the pts from the boot and play brilliant tactical kicking and put constant pressure on them. Beat the crap out of them up front: scrums, mauls, win TO, disrupt quick balls, be on every ruck like Satan on the world of men err I mean like a fat guy on a cheeseburger with wheels, and then on attack again they won't produce glorious flair for 80min so they'll need to be clinical in working the phases and take every opportunity.

I don't think Wales has the quickness required at the breakdown and I'm off defecating now been meaning to this entire post. Oh..oh God......it's right at the edge..

 

[Kiwiwomble]

How often has Ben Smith played at 13? Would he not be worth a shout there given C.Smiths recent performances?

he's played a few times but i think its pretty clear fekitoa or crotty would be the next cabs of the rank rather than moving Ben infield

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

10 will be Cruden, 22 will be Barrett or Carter.

 

[Jaguares]

Carter sent back to NZ to learn how to play rugby.

You are an ungrateful with one of the best players in rugby history

 

[Draggs]

You are an ungrateful with one of the best players in rugby history

There is a reason the All Blacks are so good; every player earns their spot (except Dagg).

 

[donmcdazzle]

I don't think it's going to be close...

You might be a bit hasty in writing them off there. Sure we will be the favourites but we have hardly been in great form - other than the 3rd test against England and the big win against Australia this year we have snuck home in most games that we have won.

I expect it if we win it will be single digits. Wales will be more fired up to play us than they were against Fiji (no disrespect to Fiji intended), so I expect they will be far more switched on and intense.

 

[Shaggy]

I think we all want Dan Carter to play, but we want the one that is uninjured, and in good form. It's not being disrespectful, we just want the best players at the time playing

 

[Larksea]

Cruden should start at 10 IMO. Barrett on the bench. Carter sent back to NZ to learn how to play rugby. While I can see the logic behind giving Carter more time, starting him versus Wales would likely do more harm than good. He looked woefully short of rugby versus Scotland - one match isn't going to change that - so it wouldn't surprise me if he was poor against Wales too (if selected). That's not going to help his confidence one bit. If Carter is able to play a season of Super Rugby - and his form suggests he is capable of performing at test level - then I would consider playing him again for the ABs.

I think we need to be playing the 10 who will be most likely be starting at the business end of the RWC next year. For me that is Cruden. Carter will almost certainly be watching in the stands (or on his tv at home) injured....

Considering how World cup finals games go Cruden would be my absolute last pick of the current 10's because of his 50% success rate and sub par range. I know you love Cruden but if you think about it I think you would agree. In world cup finals we need a goal kicker on the field at all times with good range and 75% success rate. That is not Aaron Cruden. For about a year and a bit he made up for his lack of range when he seemed to be able to slot anything within his limited range. but that period has turned out to be the exception rather than the Rule. Over long periods of time Carter, Barrett, Slade and Tom Taylor have been more successful and their extra range opens up points scoring opportunities not available when Cruden is kicking.

The chances are much greater that Barrett will overcome his ankle injury and get his kicking back to where it has for the majority of his career or that Dan Carter will get back on par after his sabbatical & injury setbacks than Cruden will be to fix problems he has had for most of his career and start kicking goals better than he ever has.

On a side note its a shame Dagg isn't kicking goals, he was right up with the best kickers in NZ when he was kicking for the highlanders. Dagg could kick goals and Cruden could focus on what hes good at much like 2011 when Weepu was kicking for Cruden.

 

[Mikel92]

I would love to see Carter playing, but I'm not going to sit here and argue for it. I can totally understand my countrymen saying that his form is concerning. It is. And it always is when he first comes back, this isn't a new phenomena. All I can say is, it would be cool if he did start, but if he doesn't then a bench spot would be handy. Also, we really can't say on the one hand "Carter is out of form" but then promote Cruden. Until Cruden learns to kick goals properly, then why consider him either? You could go in circles with that argument.

At the risk of sounding over confident and cocky, I don't think it will be a lucky escape or anything like it was for Australia. Hey, I may be wrong, but I think Wales are having issues. That isn't a free license for us to be stupid or anything. But when I think of "improvements" I think of Scotland and Ireland. Not Wales. Gatland is struggling against sides like Fiji. Granted, not losing, but not impressive either. And guess what happened to the last fella who that happened to? Yep. Bye-bye Gareth Jenkins.

I agree with Larkseas team. Conrad and Jerome to both start, if they can. I'd like to see Carter get more game time, but if not then Barrett for me. Won't be a blow out but it shouldn't be super close.

 

[donmcdazzle]

Considering how World cup finals games go Cruden would be my absolute last pick of the current 10's because of his 50% success rate and sub par range. I know you love Cruden but if you think about it I think you would agree. In world cup finals we need a goal kicker on the field at all times with good range and 75% success rate. That is not Aaron Cruden. For about a year and a bit he made up for his lack of range when he seemed to be able to slot anything within his limited range. but that period has turned out to be the exception rather than the Rule. Over long periods of time Carter, Barrett, Slade and Tom Taylor have been more successful and their extra range opens up points scoring opportunities not available when Cruden is kicking.

The chances are much greater that Barrett will overcome his ankle injury and get his kicking back to where it has for the majority of his career or that Dan Carter will get back on par after his sabbatical & injury setbacks than Cruden will be to fix problems he has had for most of his career and start kicking goals better than he ever has.

On a side note its a shame Dagg isn't kicking goals, he was right up with the best kickers in NZ when he was kicking for the highlanders. Dagg could kick goals and Cruden could focus on what hes good at much like 2011 when Weepu was kicking for Cruden.

Pretty sure that's a drastic exaggeration. Didn't someone post some stats to show over the last couple of Super seasons he has better %'s than both Barrett and Carter? He has kicked poorly in the last two games, which has been said by the team to have been caused by an injury. You've explained away Barrett's poor kicking to injury but you won't do the same for Cruden? By the way, when did Barrett become a reliable kicker? He has always been erratic, likely to kick 7/7 one week then 1/5 the next.

And what a crap decision that was, Weepu sprayed them all over the place we would have been better with Cruden kicking.