[2014 EOYT] Ireland vs South Africa

[Big Ewis]

I can actually see SA winning by a large margin, I've been really impressed with them recently and Ireland have a number of issues coming into this game with injuries and lack of game time being the biggest.

yes the first game of the EOYT's definitely favors the 4N teams in that they're right fresh off playing together a lot and they arrive focused in Europe to face national sides that have been completely dormant for 4 1/2months. You guys have a tough one, but us and England really have it really hard on this first day...

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Pienaar ruled out of Bok tour.. phwew.

http://www.sport24.co.za/Rugby/Springboks/Pienaar-ruled-out-of-Bok-tour-20141104

We conceded less than one a game in the 6n iirc, our attack isn't that great at the moment though.

Christ, that would be one scary back row..
& I disagree, our defence is what won us the six nations in my opinion. We only conceded something like 45 points the whole tournament. However, SA scoring 3 wouldn't be that surprising..

Springboks has scored an average of 3.6 tries per match this year. That was mainly what I was basing my prediction on. That said I was unaware of Irelands defensive record and in wet conditions SA has only managed to score 1 try in each of those. In fact the trend has kinda been 1 try in the wet but 5+ in dry conditions. Would you think Irelands defences would hold even with injuries resulting in a few changes? A lot for SA depends on 1) can we gain even marginal ascendency up front? Not a given with our current tight 5 and new look backrow at all, how accurate will Hougaard, Pollard and Le Roux be on the day. Of the three Le Roux has been very inconsistent.

:lol: :lol: I leave an hour or so, return, and find a fkng IRISH BOKS XV ON THE THREAD alright, that's just it !!! THAT IS IT MAN. schturmah, I have created a word just, yes just for you. You are the official TRF quindecimophile, an obsessive pathological condition I just invented which consists in being abnormally infatuated with XV's; from the latin 'quindecim' (fifteen) and old greek 'philein' (in love with).
I may slightly be on the verge of being a thread starting madman and have my issues there, but the xv threads I make are just part of that thread starting stimulus, nothing specific. You are the TRF quindecimophile my man and that's just that !! You don't even have a right to defend your case, it's oh, so far too late for that !!! If we could have the staff add that medal to your board there, that'd be great.

I wouldn't even try; I know when I'm beat. BUT but but don't you think it a novel way to compare the two sides prior to a game? I could have done the Mtawarira < Healy, Du Plessis> ... etc thing... I still can.

I love XVs !!! Luckily knowledge on the subject isn't needed so here I go
1.Healy (No contest really)
2.Bismark (Best in the world)
3.Moore
4.Etzebeth
5.O'Connell
6.Alberts
7.O'Brien
8.Thor
9.Murray
10.Sexton
11.Habana
12.Serfontein
13.Henshaw/De Villiers
14.Bowe
15.Le Roux

that's the spirit! +1!

@TheSaffycen Great entrance to thread. haha

@stormer2010 I can actually see SA winning by a large margin, I've been really impressed with them recently and Ireland have a number of issues coming into this game with injuries and lack of game time being the biggest. With Healy and SOB fully fit and firing and a little more time to work out who should play in 12-13 we would have a much more even chance with that all cemented down. I also don't agree on defence we were porous V Aus last Autumn but under Joe thats the only occasion and I have really no idea what happened there.

I reckon SA will take it by somewhere form 7-17 points, it'll be tight until the second half when I think the Irish team will have been pounded into submission by Vermulan and co. at which point Pollard (Who i'm predicating will go well) will let lose Sefontain and Habana.

Like I said it depends on a lot of factors. I've assumed Ireland will be more rocked by injury than we would, it's the first game in a while for your guys, will SA continue playing positive rugby in Europe, weather, Le Roux is 2/3 tries per game garuanteed just for who is up in the air, just those total random things that happen in play and no-one can adjust for; like say one of the teams score a try off the kick off in the first minute; game changer.. just so many factors.. My gut feel is a range of Ireland by 5 to SA by 15 so my actual and final prediction would be SA by 5.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Springboks has scored an average of 3.6 tries per match this year. That was mainly what I was basing my prediction on. That said I was unaware of Irelands defensive record and in wet conditions SA has only managed to score 1 try in each of those. In fact the trend has kinda been 1 try in the wet but 5+ in dry conditions. Would you think Irelands defences would hold even with injuries resulting in a few changes? A lot for SA depends on 1) can we gain even marginal ascendency up front? Not a given with our current tight 5 and new look backrow at all, how accurate will Hougaard, Pollard and Le Roux be on the day. Of the three Le Roux has been very inconsistent.

That's a good question. Our back-row and second-row will be what they were at the beginning of the year and both Murray and Sexton play a large role in the defensive system so we shouldn't lose out there. Where I would be worried is defensively, despite slowing up with old age and losing some of his attacking magic BO'D was still a world class defensive 13 until the very end whereas Henshaw, who I assume/hope will start 13, obviously isn't at that level but is still very competent in defence and it'll be interesting to see whether or not he can stand in adequately in what will probably be a slightly altered defensive system to what we saw in the 6 nations. Our biggest loss defensively is Rory Best, he is so reliable and a fantastic player at the breakdown whereas Sean Cronin is better on attack but quite average defensively.

I'm strangely confident about this game, Ireland don't fear the Boks which makes a huge difference for an Irish rugby team and Schmidt will have studied the Saffas carefully and come up with a solid gameplan. A one score game and I think Ireland could just sneak the win.

 

[Big Ewis]

Ireland don't fear the Boks which makes a huge difference for an Irish rugby team and Schmidt will have studied the Saffas carefully and come up with a solid gameplan. A one score game and I think Ireland could just sneak the win.

The Irish don't fear the bocks, alright !! *wink*wink*wink* huh ?? EHHH ???....*sigh* ehh......I'm getting banned again, aren't I...:huh:

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

That's a good question. Our back-row and second-row will be what they were at the beginning of the year and both Murray and Sexton play a large role in the defensive system so we shouldn't lose out there. Where I would be worried is defensively, despite slowing up with old age and losing some of his attacking magic BO'D was still a world class defensive 13 until the very end whereas Henshaw, who I assume/hope will start 13, obviously isn't at that level but is still very competent in defence and it'll be interesting to see whether or not he can stand in adequately in what will probably be a slightly altered defensive system to what we saw in the 6 nations. Our biggest loss defensively is Rory Best, he is so reliable and a fantastic player at the breakdown whereas Sean Cronin is better on attack but quite average defensively.

I'm strangely confident about this game, Ireland don't fear the Boks which makes a huge difference for an Irish rugby team and Schmidt will have studied the Saffas carefully and come up with a solid gameplan. A one score game and I think Ireland could just sneak the win.

Wow. Thanks for the thorough and insightful answer! I hope it's not a game bogged down by good defense stopping half-hearted attack since Hougaard and Pollard also add a lot to the SA defensive cause.. I mean in comparison to M Steyn.. That said our backline has a strong tendency towards attack and trying to open up; we have better or at least much more dependable options than Hendricks, Le Roux and even JdV and Serfontein. I mean, we could field 9 Hougaard, 10 Pollard, 11 De Allende 12 F Steyn, 13 J Fourie, 14 JJP, 15 Taute (all safe as houses in defense), close up shop and rely on Steyn's kicking range FTW. But we don't, Serfontein, JdV are there for penetration and fast hands, Hendricks, Le Roux and Habana are just pace and revel in opening up play. Hougaard and Pollard not bad on the attack (if Hougaard keeps from trying to play a kicking game that is and rather backs himself to take on the line every now and again).

The Irish don't fear the bocks, alright !! *wink*wink*wink* huh ?? EHHH ???....*sigh* ehh......I'm getting banned again, aren't I...:huh:

Wow. I never would've come up with that one. Er, I mean, ban him! Ban this SOB!

+1's all round!

 

[Big Ewis]

Wow. I never would've come up with that one. Er, I mean, ban him! Ban this SOB!

+1's all round!

WHAPISHHH, boomerang effect. But seriously though, let's keep it on the down low with the B word there !!...h34r: Might give them ppl at the top wrong ideas...
Will wait for the lineups but I don't think the Boks will win this with ease (if at all)...

 

[Jockstap]

The Irish don't fear the bocks, alright !! *wink*wink*wink* huh ?? EHHH ???....*sigh* ehh......I'm getting banned again, aren't I...:huh:

You're mental mate and coming from me that's saying something. What he means is we don't fear them because we have a decent record against them recently unlike the all blacks who we've never defeated.

 

[munstermuffin]

I for 1 will go on record saying I think Ireland will win by 7+ points. I've just got a huge feeling.

McGrath. Obviously Healy is a loss but it gives him a shot and he's not a poor player by any means. Killer will do job when he arrives too.
Ross will hold out scrum nothing else but it's all that's required.
Best/Cronin/Strauss. All 3 will do role. If Best is out Strauss on bench but while none will excel they will do role.
Toner will build upon his previous time in green. POC will be POC. Dave Foley will come on and hope it goes well but I've seen many great locks at Munster and excluding Paulie he will go on to be 1 of best we've ever produced. He will add bite.
POM/Henry/Heaslip are all tough durable players and will all produce I feel it and think 1 of 3 will be man of match.
Murray and Sexton. In top 3 in world in their respective positions in my eyes.
D'arcy is smart. Will be the rock defensively going about his work quietly.
Henshaw/Payne will be eager to deliver and well this is only area I worry about.
Back 3 are dangerous and will take any chance given the sniff

 

[big ginger 8]

If I was Hendricks I'd be getting a bit nervous at this stage. I've a feeling we're really going to test him out with our kicking game. Sexton may not be RO'G but he's shown that he can hit the low diagonals into the corner when he wants he's also one of the best out there at the bomb. Murray's kicking game is up there with Du Preez (not sure about capitals sorry) as the best in the world and finally in a back three of Zebo, Bowe and Kearney you've got one of the best back three's possible to play a chasing game. I'm struggling to think of one that's as good at the high ball off the top of my head.

I'll wait for the team announcement for a score prediction but I'm thinking pretty tight at the moment with the winner changing every hour. I can't wait for this game. There's nothing like international rugby to get the blood pumping!

 

[TheSaffycen]

Based on when we beat Ireland what you need is constant fast paced defence and fitness. We managed to defend brilliantly for most of the game, added to the fact that Ireland had a lack of pace in their backline. I would go for a 6 point swing either way honestly. I also think one team is going to come away from this wondering if they had just put away one more chance they should have won. If I had to pick a team I would have to go for SA.

 

[Big Ewis]

You're mental mate and coming from me that's saying something. What he means is we don't fear them because we have a decent record against them recently unlike the all blacks who we've never defeated.

yes. Yes it does indeed appear to be quite something.

 

[profitius]

I for 1 will go on record saying I think Ireland will win by 7+ points. I've just got a huge feeling.

McGrath. Obviously Healy is a loss but it gives him a shot and he's not a poor player by any means. Killer will do job when he arrives too.
Ross will hold out scrum nothing else but it's all that's required.
Best/Cronin/Strauss. All 3 will do role. If Best is out Strauss on bench but while none will excel they will do role.
Toner will build upon his previous time in green. POC will be POC. Dave Foley will come on and hope it goes well but I've seen many great locks at Munster and excluding Paulie he will go on to be 1 of best we've ever produced. He will add bite.
POM/Henry/Heaslip are all tough durable players and will all produce I feel it and think 1 of 3 will be man of match.
Murray and Sexton. In top 3 in world in their respective positions in my eyes.
D'arcy is smart. Will be the rock defensively going about his work quietly.
Henshaw/Payne will be eager to deliver and well this is only area I worry about.
Back 3 are dangerous and will take any chance given the sniff

I like this mans confidence! In typical Irish fashion we'll go from no hopers to world beaters as we move to kick off

I'm optimistic too. I just want to see Ireland perform well which is likely. And if the Boks play better and win I've no problem with that. As long as its not a stop start scrum fest.

 

[UlsterRugby2012]

I've a feeling this will be a game that we will play really well, tactically good and real intensity and enthusiasm. But our scrum could crumble and our line out might not go so well, which will probably lose us the game.

How good (or bad) is Cronin's throwing at the minute? Haven't seen him play in a while but from what I remember his throwing wasn't great, and we can't afford to lose silly line outs against SA.

 

[profitius]

yes. Yes it does indeed appear to be quite something.

Well it could be worse, he could have called you boring!

 

[profitius]

I've a feeling this will be a game that we will play really well, tactically good and real intensity and enthusiasm. But our scrum could crumble and our line out might not go so well, which will probably lose us the game.

How good (or bad) is Cronin's throwing at the minute? Haven't seen him play in a while but from what I remember his throwing wasn't great, and we can't afford to lose silly line outs against SA.

Cronins throwing at the moment is poor even for him, and thats saying something.

 

[big ginger 8]

I've a feeling this will be a game that we will play really well, tactically good and real intensity and enthusiasm. But our scrum could crumble and our line out might not go so well, which will probably lose us the game.

How good (or bad) is Cronin's throwing at the minute? Haven't seen him play in a while but from what I remember his throwing wasn't great, and we can't afford to lose silly line outs against SA.

Last season he was really good with it but has been a bit shakey this year. I'm optimistic that he'll improve with a PO'C run lineout though like every hooker seems to.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Tigers well beaten by Baabaas

The scorers:
For Leicester:
Tries: Burns, Gibson, Loamanu, Grant
Con: Williams 2, Grant
For Barbarians:
Tries: De Jongh 2, Du Toit, Saili, Brussow, English, Rhodes, Li, Botes
Con: Boshoff 5, Saili, Botes

http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,16024_9550371,00.html


Just thought this game highlighted some guys that are very unlucky;

Juan de Jongh the form 13 in SA, CC winning captain, and there not being a specialist 13 in our squad while JdV though our captain, has he been a bit of a passenger of late? Serfontein/De Jongh anyone?
Thomas du Toit rising quickly but this tour and the 2015 RWC just a tad too early for him maybe even if we are struggling for props ATM..
Brussow and Botes, just guys that I feel it's almost a crime they havn't got more test caps and LOL at Botes' conversion to top of his own try, what a trooper.
Boshoff should have been in the squad ahead of M Steyn IMO if we are taking 4 FH since he can cover FB as well so we have 3 players to cover there. Though I'd have taken JdJ in Steyn's place from the start.

 

[PiXeL_NiNja]

I thought this past weekends Baa Baas game against the wallabies perfectly illustrated why JdJ is not in the team for the boks. He was 100% anonymous! Did he even start that game, I even watched that game and I'm still not sure. Have you taken a look at his stats of that game? Completely outclassed by those around him, both on his team and his opponents. Him doing ok vs a 2nd string Leicester side in a midweek match is not really an achievement, and I would say that his performance vs that hungry Aus side would be a truer reflection of how he will go at Test level.

JdJ is not big enough for 13. Look at the penetrative brusier that Aus has in Kuridrani, (nz run a bigger inside centre in Nonu/SBW, that said even Snake is 1.86 95kg) but 1.75 88kg is not what you are looking for at 13, not if you want to be the best in the world.

Pet peeve of mine is how arm chair coaches who are not privvy to all the information that the head coach is, cry foul at a nonselection of their favourite player. It is the coach's head on the chopping block and I trust his decision (quota's aside), afterall we are currently performing better than we have for a long long time and deserves our dues.

(@Stormer sorry if it seems like that last bit is directed at you, but it's not - its directed to all the half wit fans on local media, which I have run away from, in hopes of getting into some intelligent conversation)

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I thought this past weekends Baa Baas game against the wallabies perfectly illustrated why JdJ is not in the team for the boks. He was 100% anonymous! Did he even start that game, I even watched that game and I'm still not sure. Have you taken a look at his stats of that game? Completely outclassed by those around him, both on his team and his opponents. Him doing ok vs a 2nd string Leicester side in a midweek match is not really an achievement, and I would say that his performance vs that hungry Aus side would be a truer reflection of how he will go at Test level.

JdJ is not big enough for 13. Look at the penetrative brusier that Aus has in Kuridrani, (nz run a bigger inside centre in Nonu/SBW, that said even Snake is 1.86 95kg) but 1.75 88kg is not what you are looking for at 13, not if you want to be the best in the world.

Pet peeve of mine is how arm chair coaches who are not privvy to all the information that the head coach is, cry foul at a nonselection of their favourite player. It is the coach's head on the chopping block and I trust his decision (quota's aside), afterall we are currently performing better than we have for a long long time and deserves our dues.

(@Stormer sorry if it seems like that last bit is directed at you, but it's not - its directed to all the half wit fans on local media, which I have run away from, in hopes of getting into some intelligent conversation)

Fair enough and I'm not calling for his inclusion into the run on side though I do feel he'd have been worth more in the extended squad than M Steyn. Give him a run out against Italy for instance to give JdV a rest and he is quality back up in the centers should we have an injry there. I can't comment too much about the baabaas game vs Aus as I only saw highlights but in this year's Currie cup he was a class act it has to be said. Not a world beater but he'd not be out of place in a Bok jersey IMO. Though my provincial bias might be showing.

 

[munstermuffin]

Cronin will be alright. POC won't give him anything hard and a lot more targets.
I've such a strong feeling though we will perform. As BG8 said Sexton is not ROG and will never be able to kick tactically like him but that's not a crime as not many in world can BUT Sexton can do it good and also is more of an all round threat as he can run too.
We are a hit and miss team but at home in the November games we do usually play well so I think we will do it