Well today's the day. It's a foul day here in London, grey and rainy, so I'm cheering myself up with whisky and red bull (not mixed you heathens) and the prospect of a full day of rugby.
I have to say, I am rather calm about what the day might bring. Very difficult to call - but win, and we have a Grand Slam. Lose, and we will simply build further. An awful lot about the team is right at the core, it's a matter of progressing beyond that, and if I'm honest I care more about that than the Slam.
Looking at the team sheets, at the first XVs, I feel that Wales should win this - on paper. Man for man, in terms of talent, they bring a slight edge overall. This is particularly true in the front row and the back three. In general we are very similar, both teams built around solid defence and territory; we cannot hope our style will unpick theirs, although we might hope we play it better. But in a close match, you would expect scrum superiority to be vital, with the prospect of a moment of genius/madness being decisive - the back threes tilts the odds of that happening to them.
But I still feel reasonably optimistic. We have a few potential gamebreakers of our own in Youngs and Tuilagi. We have a stronger bench - Vunipola will come and offer massive carrying, Haskell and Lawes can force a higher tempo. Care and Flood may not have been much cop against Italy, but they've performed everytime they've come off the bench so far. I do not wish to sledge the Welsh bench, they're useful enough, particularly Liam Williams, but I do not think they are as strong.
Most crucially, I look at the coaches and the impact they have on the players' minds and I feel happy. Lancaster, whatever his flaws, has created a team that specialises in tight games. Howley's Wales have specialised in losing such games. I would not wish to say we will definitely have the greater composure, as it will be a pressure game and a half, but previous evidence says we will. Hopefully it will continue. Hopefully the coherence and mentality of Lancaster's England will see us through. But if it doesn't, I shall not be surprised - nor too displeased - I only hope that it will be a good game of rugby, and that the Welsh are happy in their victory.
The thing I am looking forwards to most for today is the battle of the breakdown. The Welsh have a lot of jackals; we have set a very high standard in clearing our own rucks. Nor are we short of jackals ourselves. Can we win this particular battle? It would be very impressive if we did. I think we can - numbers, pace and technique is the answer to securing your own ball and we have been doing that right (mostly). Launchbury's fitness will be key to this. There's been a lot of talk about our back-row. I am happy with it as the best unit we have available, a reasonably balanced unit well fitted to our game plan - it is not my ideal back-row, but so far so good - but this will be its biggest test. But they won't be the only people to blame if the battle of the breakdown goes wrong.
Finally - good luck to the Welsh, may rugby be the winner though.
It won't though. Be a pig of a game probably.
