(Very) early thoughts on the 2017 Lions

[welshglory]

Moriarty was Wales' best carrier against NZ last summer and arguably the find of that series. He backed that up with a very good 6 Nations too, so he'd hardly be a leftfield selection.

I just don't see him being useful for a Lions side. O'Brien, O'Mahony, Haskell, Itoje (to bring an extra a lock), Heaslip all offer way more at the breakdown and lineout which is going to more important than predicatbly crash balling at intense NZ sides. It wouldn't surprise me if Gats goes with him for Gatlandball though...

 

[TRF_Cymro]

I just don't see him being useful for a Lions side. O'Brien, O'Mahony, Haskell, Itoje (to bring an extra a lock), Heaslip all offer way more at the breakdown and lineout which is going to more important than predicatbly crash balling at intense NZ sides. It wouldn't surprise me if Gats goes with him though...

Heaslip does not offer much at the breakdown ... his tight work leaves much to be desired. He loves hanging out of the back of rucks and letting others do the dirty work. Before the Irish posters come breathing down my neck for Heaslip, I don't think he is the best option for the Lions and I think Ireland have potentially better lads than him. Ross is a lineout option also, so don't get that comparison for me sorry. The guy was the standout for Wales in NZ last summer and he would certainly offer / be useful something for the Lions.

Some of the names banded about are a fair call, to leave Moriarty out of that equation is short sighted in my opinion.

 

[welshglory]

He was a standout last year because the rest of the pack was dross.

When the Lions have got Vunipola, Faletau and Stander as ball carrying options they don't really need Moriarty. If Warbs and Tips are favourites for openside you need some workhorses to balance it out. Haskell, Itoje and O'Mahony tick that box for me. O'Brien offers you a mix of both and i think Heaslip is a very good all round player and a world class lineout 8 plus his leadership and experience. As an example a backrow of Stander, Warburton and Heaslip would be a good balance. I can't really see Moriarty fitting into many combinations.

 

[TRF_Cymro]

He was a standout last year because the rest of the pack was dross.

When the Lions have got Vunipola, Faletau and Stander as ball carrying options they don't really need Moriarty. If Warbs and Tips are favourites for openside you need some workhorses to balance it out. Haskell, Itoje and O'Mahony tick that box for me. O'Brien offers you a mix of both and i think Heaslip is a very good all round player and a world class lineout 8 plus his leadership and experience. A backrow of Stander, Warburton and Heaslip would be a good balance. I can't really see Moriarty fitting into many combinations.

You keep on dismissing or not acknowledging the NZ media and how they saw him. Doesn't matter if they were dross or not, he still delivered and that is what matters. I still believe you are being very dismissive on what Moriarty does as an international backrower. Clearly you are not a fan and that is fine.

I wouldn't have that combination you mentioned above for the backrow. Buy hey I am not the Lions coach. But as I said, Moriarty's name should well be included in the list of potential Lions backrowers. He's earned that right.

 

[welshglory]

If we're going by last year's performance versus the Allblacks I thought Heaslip was pretty damn good against them in November!

Just to be clear though I'm not really pushing for Heaslip, i think the others i mentioned beforehand are ahead of him but i do think Moriarty should be behind Heaslip in the pecking order.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

A lot of looking at how he did in NZ in a terrible Welsh pack yet in the 6N he was actually one of the worst carriers in the Welsh pack, the worst 8 for carrying of all the 6N team and had the lowest tackle completion rate of any in the Welsh pack. Those are not the stats of a player in fine form. Tbh I think the sense of Moriarty being that good comes mostly from putting in 2 or 3 huge hits against England and not much more. For the most part he was actually pretty ineffective.

 

[TRF_Cymro]

A lot of looking at how he did in NZ in a terrible Welsh pack yet in the 6N he was actually one of the worst carriers in the Welsh pack, the worst 8 for carrying of all the 6N team and had the lowest tackle completion rate of any in the Welsh pack. Those are not the stats of a player in fine form. Tbh I think the sense of Moriarty being that good comes mostly from putting in 2 or 3 huge hits against England and not much more. For the most part he was actually pretty ineffective.

To be fair I will say he didn't carry as much as he should. But the tackle completion rate, love to know where that one came from ... from the stats that I have from Accenture (official 6 Nations provider), not exactly the case ... he was in the top three for most tackles made by a player in five out of the 6 games, his completion rate is high. He was pretty solid in the tight, which stats will never show. So I apart from not carrying that much (which he should have done more) I don't think it is a fair call to say he was ineffective.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Heaslip does not offer much at the breakdown ... his tight work leaves much to be desired. He loves hanging out of the back of rucks and letting others do the dirty work. Before the Irish posters come breathing down my neck for Heaslip, I don't think he is the best option for the Lions and I think Ireland have potentially better lads than him. Ross is a lineout option also, so don't get that comparison for me sorry. The guy was the standout for Wales in NZ last summer and he would certainly offer / be useful something for the Lions.

Some of the names banded about are a fair call, to leave Moriarty out of that equation is short sighted in my opinion.

Heaslip won't hit many rucks while defending but he's incredible at following the play in attack and neutralising the opposition's poaching threats, Moriarty is better physically but thats about it and most 8's are more impressive than Heaslip there. What makes Heaslip, in my opinion, a must pick is that he's probably the most intelligent and well rounded 8 in world rugby, he won't make as many mistales as anyone on the pitch and constantly chips in with with positive contributions as well as being a leader. He was my test 8 and captain at the end of the 6nations, his injury and Vunipola's form are changing that but not picking him would limit the Lions' backrow to the Welsh model... That doesn't work against NZ, Heaslip has been part of a backrow that completely got the better of NZ's and one that dominated possession against them in Autumn, he was the only Irish backrow to play all 160 minutes too.

I think when picking the backrow a Welsh/Irish hybrid is needed when it comes to the breakdown, Warburton or Tipuric bring the Welsh part, you're going to need one of Heaslip, Jordi Murphy or JVDF to fill the Irish role. Murphy would have been perfect (Warbs, Murphy, Binny with CJ benching) if not for injury, VDF had a huge game on Saturday but has had a poor 2017 outside of that so I think Heaslip is the only option.

 

[TRF_Cymro]

Heaslip won't hit many rucks while defending but he's incredible at following the play in attack and neutralising the opposition's poaching threats, Moriarty is better physically but thats about it and most 8's are more impressive than Heaslip there. What makes Heaslip, in my opinion, a must pick is that he's probably the most intelligent and well rounded 8 in world rugby, he won't make as many mistales as anyone on the pitch and constantly chips in with with positive contributions as well as being a leader. He was my test 8 and captain at the end of the 6nations, his injury and Vunipola's form are changing that but not picking him would limit the Lions' backrow to the Welsh model... That doesn't work against NZ, Heaslip has been part of a backrow that completely got the better of NZ's and one that dominated possession against them in Autumn, he was the only Irish backrow to play all 160 minutes too.

I think when picking the backrow a Welsh/Irish hybrid is needed when it comes to the breakdown, Warburton or Tipuric bring the Welsh part, you're going to need one of Heaslip, Jordi Murphy or JVDF to fill the Irish role. Murphy would have been perfect (Warbs, Murphy, Binny with CJ benching) if not for injury, VDF had a huge game on Saturday but has had a poor 2017 outside of that so I think Heaslip is the only option.

Fair points made, and I respect that.

 

[munstermuffin]

Alpha injury or no injury lets be fair Jordi Murphy was never going to be near Lions tour.
Think that is major overhyping of him.

On backrow it does nred balance. I'm presuming Warburton starts so maybe him at 6 with SOB at 7 and Vunipola or CJ at 8 is best balance.

As good as Irelands win was in Autumn was we have to realise New Zealand were mentally and physically burnt and there were issues in camp so we should use it as guide but not carbon copy.
The key will be 10 12 13 too. I think New Zealand are pure unsettled here that it may play in to Lions hands. But it'll also be who's on form between now and July.
On Heaslip I don't think he will tour as injury has ruled him out when he needed to play and it's too competitive. But I do wonder could there be a shock like a Leavy or someone getting in.

 

[munstermuffin]

This is rumoured squad

Halfpenny, L.Williams, Hogg
North, Seymour, Watson, Daly
Henshaw, Davies, Joseph, Te'o
Sexton, Farrell, Ford
Murray, Webb, B Youngs

Mcgrath, Healy, M.Vunipola, Furlong, Cole, Sinkler
Hartley, Owens, George.
Itoje, AW Jones, Kruis, Launchbury
Stander, Faletau, O'Mahony, B.Vunipola, O'Brien, Tipuric, Warburton (capt

Not sure I believe it though as Ulster lads said Saturday Henderson has been told he is in

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Alpha injury or no injury lets be fair Jordi Murphy was never going to be near Lions tour.
Think that is major overhyping of him.

On backrow it does nred balance. I'm presuming Warburton starts so maybe him at 6 with SOB at 7 and Vunipola or CJ at 8 is best balance.

As good as Irelands win was in Autumn was we have to realise New Zealand were mentally and physically burnt and there were issues in camp so we should use it as guide but not carbon copy.
The key will be 10 12 13 too. I think New Zealand are pure unsettled here that it may play in to Lions hands. But it'll also be who's on form between now and July.
On Heaslip I don't think he will tour as injury has ruled him out when he needed to play and it's too competitive. But I do wonder could there be a shock like a Leavy or someone getting in.

After his South African tour and his 30mins against NZ he was easily the form 7 among the Lions nations.

 

[munstermuffin]

After his South African tour and his 30mins against NZ he was easily the form 7 among the Lions nations.

Maybe he hit form too early but sorry I don't think he was ever close. But will admit it's a "we will never know" due to injury. Also the backrow battle at Leinster will be tough to see him get in at 7.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

To be fair I will say he didn't carry as much as he should. But the tackle completion rate, love to know where that one came from ... from the stats that I have from Accenture (official 6 Nations provider), not exactly the case ... he was in the top three for most tackles made by a player in five out of the 6 games, his completion rate is high. He was pretty solid in the tight, which stats will never show. So I apart from not carrying that much (which he should have done more) I don't think it is a fair call to say he was ineffective.

Leaving out the Italy game as that always skews the stats here are things for Moriarty from Accenture:
50 tackles made, 7 missed, 86% completion.
39 carries, 57m made. For comparison Hughes, who was supposedly massively outplayed by Moriarty and completely shut out the game by him made 22 carries and 75m in just the Wales game. Granted it could be from kick return but even Billy V against Ireland managed 16 m from 7 carries. Moriarty is really not very effective as a carrier at all.

 

[TRF_Cymro]

Leaving out the Italy game as that always skews the stats here are things for Moriarty from Accenture:
50 tackles made, 7 missed, 86% completion.
39 carries, 57m made. For comparison Hughes, who was supposedly massively outplayed by Moriarty and completely shut out the game by him made 22 carries and 75m in just the Wales game. Granted it could be from kick return but even Billy V against Ireland managed 16 m from 7 carries. Moriarty is really not very effective as a carrier at all.

I saw those stats for myself ...

I don't think you understood what I posted. I said he wasn't great carrying ball and should have done better ... I even agreed with you there lol, but everything else he was pretty solid so saying he isn't effective I was challenging. He's been a good ball carrier for his club and up until this 6 Nations he has been good on the international scene.

But stats can be molded in to whatever you want and you can take them as you want. My case in point still stands, the guy should be considered to go on the tour, whether he does is up to the coach. But he is good enough to tour. If he doesn't, wouldn't be surprised if he makes an appearance as a injury replacement.

Btw ... Don't think the 86% is correct ... might be slightly higher ... then again my numeracy is not my strongest skill ... add in Italy takes him to about 90% ... but again my numeracy is not the greatest . Happy for someone to correct me there.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

This is rumoured squad

Halfpenny, L.Williams, Hogg
North, Seymour, Watson, Daly
Henshaw, Davies, Joseph, Te'o
Sexton, Farrell, Ford
Murray, Webb, B Youngs

Mcgrath, Healy, M.Vunipola, Furlong, Cole, Sinkler
Hartley, Owens, George.
Itoje, AW Jones, Kruis, Launchbury
Stander, Faletau, O'Mahony, B.Vunipola, O'Brien, Tipuric, Warburton (capt

Not sure I believe it though as Ulster lads said Saturday Henderson has been told he is in

Would be happy with that squad.

Stephen Jones reported in the Sunday Times that Gatland's going to go for a 38 man squad. Also would be surprised if he only went with 4 locks, so the above squad plus Henderson would make sense.

 

[General Melchett]

Ten Welsh and yet only two 6N wins

All the best to the English, Welsh and Irish (plus a couple of ringers) Lions

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I could live with that squad, too.
Jon Davies going is a bit of a **** take, but as far as gatland decisions go that squad is decent.

 

[ncurd]

The Scots hardly deserve places as well (in relation to Wales) after their capitulation against England. They aren't proven away from home.

Sinice the start the bulk should be made of English and Irish with peppering of other nations.

- - - Updated - - -

As for the squad if thats it I'd take it. Bit **** Nowell doesn't go and Hartley does (might give England a reason to drop him if George wasn't going as well).

Don't like Warburton as Captain but it's not a shocking decision.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I saw those stats for myself ...

I don't think you understood what I posted. I said he wasn't great carrying ball and should have done better ... I even agreed with you there lol, but everything else he was pretty solid so saying he isn't effective I was challenging. He's been a good ball carrier for his club and up until this 6 Nations he has been good on the international scene.

But stats can be molded in to whatever you want and you can take them as you want. My case in point still stands, the guy should be considered to go on the tour, whether he does is up to the coach. But he is good enough to tour. If he doesn't, wouldn't be surprised if he makes an appearance as a injury replacement.

Btw ... Don't think the 86% is correct ... might be slightly higher ... then again my numeracy is not my strongest skill ... add in Italy takes him to about 90% ... but again my numeracy is not the greatest . Happy for someone to correct me there.

Maybe I should clarify, in comparison to the people he will be competing with (6 and 8's) he is not doing better than them in the fundamentals for his position. I cba to go back and work out the exact figures but I vaguely remember checking it before and Moriarty had the worst m per carry of any of the Lions 8's who played in the 6N and it was the same for the 6's. He's not a bad player but I don't see what he offers to merit going in the place of his competition.