(Very) early thoughts on the 2017 Lions

[ncurd]

3. Pick players who are quick to learn and assimilate ideas

4. Pick players who understand 'collective intelligence'

6. Pick dynamic players


Again Biggar?!??!?!

 

[Bada-Bing!]

The main thing I don't like about Biggar is he stands too deep as a 10 to get the back line moving. I don't know if this is due to a lack pace to really challenge the gain line. Also I don't know what he would be like as a person to play second fiddle to Sexton; in fact would Ford be any better in that respect?

I get what Geech is saying about the chemistry of the Lions and that is very important to get right. But agree he does contradict himself picking players in his 46 which don't on face value match all the criteria he lists. Then again he is one of the few coaches who has been head coach of 3 Lions series; winning 2 of them.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-un...ckler-earns-lions-call-up-surprise-selection/

Sinckler and Te'o tipped to make the Lions squad, along with Henderson.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

So telegraph saying that the THs are
Furlong, Cole, Sink?

I mean it makes sense what with Wales TH being average IMO, Nel being injured during 6N's and Zander getting mullered in the scrum.

T'eo wouldn't be a surprised given that he plays a style of rugby that Gatland likes his 12's to play.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Yeah Teo both is and isn't a surprise.
Probably not good enough but definitely a Gatland centre

 

[ncurd]

Te'o in the selection frame is worrying sounds like we're going down the Warrenball route which is categorically proven to not work against NZ. Or anyone now....

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I think Rowntree being scrum coach may have a lot to do with Sinckler's inclusion. Like why Mako was included 4 years ago- his impact of the bench being his real point of difference.

If Te'o is included, I just hope it's not at JJ's expense, if Geech's article is any indication of Gatland's thinking. Can foresee him going for Farrell, Roberts, Henshaw, Te'o and Davies as his centres.

 

[General Melchett]

After a decent 6N, the horror show at Twickenham apart, I really don't see many Scots touring, especially with no representatives on the coaching team.

Hogg is probably the only cert. Seymour has a good chance while Russell has an outside chance. I think the other back rowers will be favoured over Hamish Watson and the Grays will rightly miss out to more in form second rowers who had a better 6N.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Seymour is alright but he is how old now?

Curry is ahead of him now IMO.

 

[BPM]

Tommy Seymour not David ...

I agree with The Oggmonster's assessment on the Scots. I wouldn't be disappointed to see Hamish Watson tour. Nel and Jones had a good chance but for their injuries. The only other player with a decent shout is Laidlaw as 3rd choice scrum half, but Youngs' last couple of games have probably given him the edge.

My predicted squad is:

1. McGrath / M. Vunipola / Marler
2. Best / Owens / George
3. Furlong / Cole / Sinckler
4. Itoje / Henderson
5. Jones / Launchbury / Kruis
6. Stander / Moriarty
7. Warburton / Tipuric
8. B. Vunipola / Faletau
9. Murray / Webb / Youngs
10. Sexton / Biggar
11. Watson / Daly
12. Farrell / Henshaw / Te'o
13. Joseph / Davies
14. North / Seymour
15. Hogg / Williams / Halfpenny

Personally, I wouldn't pick Biggar but I think Gatland will. I also think he may go for Moriarty over O'Brien or O'Mahony and go with just two 8s knowing that Moriarty or Stander could cover 8.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Who I would go for:

Props: Healy, McGrath, Vunipola, Cole, Furlong, Sinckler
Hookers: Best, George, Hartley
Locks: AWJ, Itoje, Kruis, Launchbury, Lawes
Back Row: POM, Stander, SOB, Warburton, Watson, Faletau, Vunipola

SHs: Murray, Youngs, Webb
FHs: Sexton, Ford
Centres: Farrell, Henshaw, JJ, Davies
Back three: North, Watson, Seymore, Williams, Halfpenny, Hogg,
Utility: Daly.

Who I think Gatland will pick on Wednesday based on 2013, Gatland's preferred style of play and Geech's criteria:

Props: Healy, McGrath, Vunipola, Cole, Furlong, Sinckler
Hookers: George, Hartley, Owens
Locks: AWJ, Itoje, Lawes, Henderson, Kruis.
Back Row: POM, Stander, SOB, Warburton, Tipuric, Faletau, Vunipola

SHs: Murray, Youngs, Webb
FHs: Sexton, Biggar
Centres: Farrell, Henshaw, Te'o, Davies
Back three: North, Watson, Maitland, Williams, Halfpenny, Hogg,
Utility: Daly.

I think he will go with Hartley (picked him back in 2013 in the initial squad) also did not pick Best in initial squad back in 2013 and also when Gatland was forwards coach back in 2009. I think he will pick Owens over him.

I think JJ may be excluded for Te'o.

I wouldn't be surprised if Roberts is squeezed in somewhere either.

 

[General Melchett]

Tommy Seymour not David ...

I agree with The Oggmonster's assessment on the Scots. I wouldn't be disappointed to see Hamish Watson tour. Nel and Jones had a good chance but for their injuries. The only other player with a decent shout is Laidlaw as 3rd choice scrum half, but Youngs' last couple of games have probably given him the edge.

My predicted squad is:

1. McGrath / M. Vunipola / Marler
2. Best / Owens / George
3. Furlong / Cole / Sinckler
4. Itoje / Henderson
5. Jones / Launchbury / Kruis
6. Stander / Moriarty
7. Warburton / Tipuric
8. B. Vunipola / Faletau
9. Murray / Webb / Youngs
10. Sexton / Biggar
11. Watson / Daly
12. Farrell / Henshaw / Te'o
13. Joseph / Davies
14. North / Seymour
15. Hogg / Williams / Halfpenny

Personally, I wouldn't pick Biggar but I think Gatland will. I also think he may go for Moriarty over O'Brien or O'Mahony and go with just two 8s knowing that Moriarty or Stander could cover 8.

I think your squad could well be bang on the money in terms of what will be announced on Weds. While there will be a notable lack of Scots I think a few on the standby list in the event of injuries e.g. Russell, J Gray, Watson, Laidlaw. Agree that Courtney Lawes will also be unlucky to just miss out but will be near the top of the standby list along with J Gray.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

My final squad:
Props -
For me Jack McGrath is the best loosehead in the world at the moment. Too often with props we're having to have this debate of ball carrying vs scrummaging, but McGrath is one of the few that is able to be great at both. My second choice is Mako Vunipola. He's been immense for England and his power and hands will be vital coming off the bench in test matches. The third spot is very close between Healy and Marler, but due to his 6 Nations form and the fact that he is starting matches every week, Joe Marler just about takes it. Wouldn't be at all disappointed to see Healy included instead though. Tadhg Furlong is a monster. End of. Dan Cole is a reliable scrummager and brings a lot of experience to the side. Prior to his injuries, WP Nel was my first choice tighthead but due to having no game time recently, he no longer makes the plane. Lee and Francis are both strong scrummagers who bring next to nothing else to the side. Kyle Sinckler takes the third spot in my squad. There are question marks around him, but he's third choice, who cares. If he does well in the warm-ups then he could make a huge difference coming off the bench vs the All Blacks, if he doesn't live up to expectation then leave him in the mid-week side.

Hookers -
A position where whoever the three that are selected are, they'll be in there do to there being no better options rather than them being the standout candidates. It's the position where I would be pleased to see some very unexpected bolters, such as Sean Cronin or Tommy Taylor. But due to the previously mentioned's lack of international game time , my choices are Rory Best due to his experience and captaincy and Jamie George as despite having never started for England, he seems to be the form international hooker in the Isles. The third spot is between Hartley and Owens. Hartley brings a heap of experience and is coming off the back of a hell of a run as England captain but due to his superior 6 Nations form Ken Owens takes it.

Locks -
The most competitive place in the squad by far. Whoever is chosen, there will be at least 3 quality players who are capable of starting in the test matches left at home. England offer four options in Itoje, Launchbury, Lawes and Kruis. Prior to his injuries Kruis was bolted on at 5 for me. Sadly, as he's only coming back this weekend he simply doesn't have time to play himself back into contention. Joe Launchbury was the stand out player of the Six Nations, he is the complete package. Immense work rate, strong ball carrier and in the Italy game he showed with his quick adaption to their tactics that he's also a very intelligent player. Maro Itoje is an athletic specimen and is the second English lock to make the plane. Towards the start of the 6 Nations Jonny Gray was in incredible form. In the first game he made 28 tackles, that is nothing short of miraculous. Despite him starting to fizzle out towards the end of the tournament, he has to make the plane. After this it becomes less clear who to choose. Alun Wyn Jones brings tonnes of experience, Donnacha Ryan and Devin toner are both very solid options who have no glaring weaknesses (arguably Toner's fitness) and Richie Gray is a tower of a man and a rock in the lineout. However, to beat the All Blacks you need to have special qualities. For me, Courtney Lawes and Iain Henderson's power, physicality and back-rower work rate mean that they make the plane.

Back Row -
Another set of positions in which we have very impressive depth. I'll start with number 8 as I see it to be the easiest to call. Billy Vunipola is arguably the best ball carrier in work rugby. He's so one dimensional, but when he's that good at that one dimension he has to be included. The second 8 spot is tougher to call. I consider Faletau to be a better player than Heaslip, but he's had very little international game time recently. Both bring impressive work rates and break down ability but due to his better ball carrying Taulupe Faletau retains the spot on the plane. Now for the flankers. As is the case with second row, regsrdless of who is included a couple of top class players will be left at home. CJ Stander is bolted on. He's a bull of a man and his form has been unbelievable. Sam Warburton is my man to take the test match captaincy. He was reinvigorated this 6 Nations and brings the experience of previous Lions captaincy. After those 2 it gets harder. Ross Moriarty had a great Six Nations and has been in fine form for Gloucester. Justin Tipuric too is just too good to leave out. Robshaw and Haskell have both shown that they can out play Southern Hemisphere back rows and had they not gotten injured, both would be on the plane. Watson had a very impressive Six Nations, but the last flanker spot goes to Peter O'Mahony. When in form, he's among the best back rowers in world rugby, a claim that simply isn't true for Watson.

Scrum Halves -
Quite a simple selection here. Conor Murray is possibly the best 9 in world rugby. He's in. Rhys Webb was one of the star players of the 6 Nations and he's always able to make something out of nothing. The same goes for Ben Youngs, a real pest for opposition teams around the breakdown. Greig Laidlaw and Danny Care both have cases to make, but neither get on the plane.

Fly Halves -
Jonathan Sexton is the clear candidate here. He's in. Who takes the second spot really is hard to decide. George Ford has shown glimpses of greatness for England but in tough games is prone to disappearing and his defence as well as goal kicking is poor. Owen Farrell is a great candidate but I'd rather take him as a 12. Dan Biggar is strong defensively and has a very good kick and chase game, but he lacks when it comes to playmaking. Finn Russell is my second choice 10. Strong defence, a good individual running game and good play making skill means that he takes this spot.

Centres -
Robbie Henshaw and Owen Farrell are the two strongest candidates at 12. Henshaw's a strong ball carrier but unlike Roberts his game doesn't revolve around this. He can fill in as a second playmaker and has a great boot too. Owen Farrell is a beast in defence, not many players are able to stop Picamoles dead in his tracks but this man did, plus I would consider him to be the best kicker in world rugby. The outside centre spots are harder to choose. Jonathan Davies is a powerful man and despite his cock up versus England, for the most part has an impressive boot. However, I don't believe that any international centre should be as poor at passing as he is. He doesn't make the plane. Jonathan Joseph has been among the best 13s in world rugby for a good 3 years now. His defence is outstanding and when he's given good ball he's a real attacking threat. Despite his 6 Nations being spent on the wing, Elliot Daly is an outside centre, his natural footballing ability means that he makes the plane, although I do admit that he'll be going more as a utility back rather than an out and out 13. Garry Ringrose takes the fifth centre spot as he's been in very impressive form and is able to cover both centre shirts.

Back Three -
Stuart Hogg is an insane attacking threat, he's in. When in form, George North is among the best wingers on the planet, he's in. After that, there are 4 spots left. Kearney and Halfpenny have both been in poor form recently and Payne didn't impress in his international return (a fullback dropping two high balls with little to no pressure on him simply isn't good enough). This means that Liam Williams, a great counter-attacker, takes the second fullback spot. Simon Zebo and Keith Earls are both unreliable in defence and don't really make up for it in attack. Neither of them make the plane. I'm a fan of Maitland but he just doesn't have the X Factor needed. Tim Visser can be a real danger in attack but is unreliable. Jack Nowell takes the second winger spot. He has a ridiculous work rate and always beats the first defender. Has been in great form for Exeter and has been very good when playing for England. Anthony Watson and Tommy Seymour take the third and fourth spots. Both boast immense pace and are reliable in defence. Watson's ability to play fullback is also a real selling point.

Summary:
Props - McGrath, Vunipola, Marler, Furlong, Cole, Sinckler
Hookers - Best, George, Owens
Locks - Launchbury, Itoje, Henderson, Gray, Lawes
Back Row - Stander, Moriarty, O'Mahony, Warburton, Tipuric, Faletau, Vunipola
Scrum Halves - Murray, Youngs, Webb
Fly Halves - Sexton, Russell
Centres - Henshaw, Farrell, Joseph, Daly, Ringrose
Back Three - George North, Anthony Watson, Jack Nowell, Tommy Seymour, Stuart Hogg, Liam Williams

P.S I better get some rep points for this, took me about 2 hours to write up

 

[TRF_Cymro]

I wouldn't put it past Gatland picking Moriarty, he's been excellent in the past two seasons and when Wales toured NZ last year ... he was raved about by the NZ press.

One bolter potentially is Gethin Jenkins as a loose head. Not saying he will be a starter but can see him going behind McGrath and Mako, he's been there and done it and has experience. His form is good also.

 

[g6mcg]

Jonny Gray looks knackered, doubt he'll tour. Rumours suggesting a lot of marginal calls going towards the Welsh again. Obviously Gatland knows and trusts them, and there are still some very talented individuals but...

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

Jonny Gray looks knackered, doubt he'll tour. Rumours suggesting a lot of marginal calls going towards the Welsh again. Obviously Gatland knows and trusts them, and there are still some very talented individuals but...

Me like hot juicy rumours! where are you hearing these?

 

[munstermuffin]

Rumours rife squad is already picked.
The 3 suprises are Sinckler, Te'o and Moriarty.
Rumours also have suggested there in 2 Scottish and no more.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

Rumours rife squad is already picked.
The 3 suprises are Sinckler, Te'o and Moriarty.
Rumours also have suggested there in 2 Scottish and no more.

Where you hearing that?
I'd be surprised about Moriarty, not that it would be undeserved just you know someone pretty big has to miss out if that's the case. At this point Vunipola looks certain to be the only English backorder, particularly if Moriarty is going.

 

[General Melchett]

Jonny Gray looks knackered, doubt he'll tour. Rumours suggesting a lot of marginal calls going towards the Welsh again. Obviously Gatland knows and trusts them, and there are still some very talented individuals but...

It'll be disappointing if the likes of Roberts, Biggar and Davies all make it. In fairness to Geechs, he never showed any bias towards Scots and generally remained objective, making selections on merit. Although at the same time he didn't have a Scottish dressing room to worry about maintaining. It's interesting because if the ABs win the series as expected there will be a new head coach in South Africa who won't have had prior exposure to a Lions tour. Although that should be a very winnable series so perhaps not so much a big issue.

 

[Reiser99]

I think a big part of Gatlands selection will revolve around versatility. He'll remember from 2013 that injuries can have a major impact and the incoming players, while they may be good, don't have time to get up to speed. If you have players who can cover more than one role, you have players ready to replace.

If we get another situation though where a semi-retired player, playing in Japan, who is meant to be commentating, coming into the squad, then it will be ridiculous. No disrespect to Shane Williams, he was a fantastic player, but the situation was a joke.