Bored so here is my idle assessment of the current tour party hierarchy. This would be my choices with some consideration of what Gatland thinks. Sorry Wales, you brought this on yourselves. Hi Scotland.
NB: I consider myself highly ignorant about scottish rugby. In particular I find it hard to tell who is considered first choice in the back row Also...I'm probably very wrong.
Loose-head Pro - I believe Scrummaging comes first so McGraph is really a no brainer. Mako is a great bench option to have, but Jenkins could also go through impact and experience. Healy needs to play himself into the fray during the six nations. Marler and beyond have no chance except for some serious injuries. I think we take something like 6 or maybe 7 props overall.
1) Jack Mcgraph
2) Mako Vunipola
3) Gethin Jenkins
4) Cian Healy (has the ability to be second choice given a run)
5) Joe Marler - Meh
6) Alan Dell?
Hooker - Lots of good options but after Best it becomes tricky. Hartley might simply not tour because of his discipline risks. If Gatland takes that decision, I think Owens is a good reliable thrower which George and Cronin are better around the field. I like George a little more than Cronin but I think the reverse will be true for Gatland
1) Rory Best
2) Dylan Hartley
3) Ken Owens
4) Jamie George
5) Sean Cronin
6) Scot Baldwin
7) Ross Ford
Tight-Head Prop - Not completely happy with the situation here. Lots of good but no great options, and the more talented players I see haven't established themselves - but saying this, the options are mroe consistently decent than last time. I'm a big Sinkler fan but given that he gets little game time I think Gatland will feel happier with the two above him.
1) Dan Cole
2) Tagh Furlong
3) Samson Lee
4) Mike Ross
5) Moray Low
5) Kyle Sinkler
6) Marty Moore / Fagerson / Nell
Locks - On current form, fitness and considering need for leadership, the current match-day locks would be Henderson, Alun-Wyn and Launchbury imo. Maro Itoje could be back in pole position with a good six nations. The amount of compeition is insane. There's literally no way in hell someone like Courtney Lawes tours, and that's quite telling. 5 locks were taken last time with Croft also consider as "capable" of playing there. Wer'e set for a real battle for the 5th place as Toner, Kruis and Gray would all be unlucky to miss out.
1) Maro Itoje
2) Iain Henderson
3) Alun-Wyn
4) Joe Launchbury
5 George Kruis
6) Devin Toner
7) Johnny Gray
8) Courtney Lawes
9) Luke Charteris
Blindside - Lots of really good options here, and Warbuton could also shift across. Stander and Haskell for me are the best options right now but because Haskell has been playing at 7. I think that because so many of the 7's can play 6, Robshaw is almost certain to miss out as is O'Mahony.
1) CJ Stander
2) James Haskell
3) Peter O'Mahony
4) Chris Robshaw
5) Teimana Harrison
6) Rob Harley
7) Dan Lydiate
Openside - Interesting decisions. Warburton is a likely captain so the incumbent whereas on form it should be an Irish player. Some quality players will miss out. The most notable ommission will be Tipuric who I don't believe will go.
1) Sam Warburton
2) Jordi Murphy
3) James Haskell
4) Sean O'Brien
5) Justin Tipuric
6) Josh VDF
Number 8 - Think the first choice is a tough one and I'd be happy with any of the top 3. With Vunipola injured, Hughes does have an opportunity to stake a claim to a place. If he has a storming six nations with england, he could go and that would mean at least one big name misses out. Wilson and Moriatys changes are close to zero. Last time we only took two; right now Heaslip might just miss out.
1) Billy Vunipola
2) Toby Faletau
3) Jamie Heaslip
4) Nathan Hughes
5) Ryan Wilson
6) Ross Moriarty
Scrum Half - The first two are head and shoulders above the rest. Laidlaws hanging in there because of experience and kicking but might not tour if Webb has a good six nations
1) Conor Murray
2) Ben Youngs
3) Gregg Laidlaw
4) Rhyss Webb
5) Danny Care
6) Gareth Davies
Fly-Half - For me the top 3 is very easy right now and given Hoggs automatic selection as someone who can also play fly half, we're not really going to get any lower than Jackson on this list. The tough call would be between Ford and jackson but I'd go with Jackson right now - possible entirely that neither will go and the choice will be the same as 2013. I think it extremely unlikely that Biggar will be anywhere near this tour. Where's Madigan at?
1) Jonathan Sexton
2) Owen Farrell
3) Paddy Jackson
4) George Ford
5) Danny Cipriani
6) Dan Biggar
999) Andy Goode
1000) Sam Davies
Left Wing - I don't think many of these guys will tour, maybe just two, however Daly is super versatile and right now he needs to go.The competition on the other wing is just better and I think it most likely we'll get some combination of North, Watson and Williams. I would be extremely surprised if tour-selection gets down to Seymour and beyond in this list, to be honest.
1) Simon Zebo
2) Johnny May
3) Elliott Daly
4) Tommy Seymour
5) Keith Earls
6) Tim Visser
7) Jack Nowell
Inside Centre - Am really excited about many of the options here. Farrell will tour as a fly-half which should make room for another. Might be a little early for Ringose and almost certainly a tour too early for Henry Slade. Jamie Roberts would be dead lucky to get on the plane but who knows, given a storming six nations. The spanner in the works is basically Farrell who I believe is in pole position even though Henshaw is a more interesting option. I think Scott Williams could also creep onto the tour as a "tech choice". Thankfully, there will be no need for the likes of Barritt and Twelvetrees this time around.
1) Owen Farrell
2) Robbie Henshaw
3) Scott Williams
4) Gary Ringrose
5) Jamie Roberts
6) Alex Dunbar
7) Henry Slade
Outside Centre - Nice problems to have, I think if Wales have a strong tournament, Davies will be at the heart of it and may become first choice in Gatlands head. Right now I'd have both english OCs ahead of him.
1) Jonathan Joseph
2) Elliot Daly
3) Jonathan Davies
4) Mark Bennett
5) Jared Payne
Right Wing - North's form has been poor but in a positive tour environment I think he will come good - on form, the four below him are more deserving. I haven't put Bowe here because I have literally no idea whats going on with him. If he came back into some form he could tour and the likes of Maitland or Trimble could miss out.
1) George North
2) Anthony Watson
3) Liam Williams
4) Andrew Trimble
5) Sean Maitland
6) Semesa Rokodoguni
7) Marlan Yarde
Full-back - I see Hogg and Williams is quite far ahead of the competition. We took 3 last time, but because Daly and Williams are both very versatile backs we might get 4 who can play here. I think Halfpenny will end up in a shootout with Kearney for a spot.
1) Stuart Hogg
2) Liam Williams
3) Rob Kearney
4) Mike Brown
5) Leigh Halfpenny
6) Elliott Daly
