(Very) early thoughts on the 2017 Lions

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Sadly I think your right in that league will be the code of the future since it's so similar to American football already and union is too much like soccer for most Americans.
I think 7s would have a chance if we developed it into an nba style game. 12 minute quarters, 13 man bench with unlimited subs that plays about 3 nights a week. Play it over summer and you instantly have a more interesting sport than baseball.

Not so sure on league whilst it is similar to NFL it has zero exposure in the US, I mean ask people to think about rugby the majority will talk about Union and the all blacks etc.

Although World rugby and US Rugby is stupid for not having it aimed @ the 2023 RWC, League will most likely have it 's 2021 World cup there. Although i think it will struggle to fill in a ground.

Union has the advantage of the All Blacks, League has no one TBH.
The fact that USA and Canada have decent Union teams esp compared to there league counterparts is helpful.

Union now has a foothold in North America and whilst not big alot of people are aware it exists league doesn't.


Although League is great to watch it has been shocking at expanding it's code similar to cricket.

 

[Peat]

Sadly I think your right in that league will be the code of the future since it's so similar to American football already and union is too much like soccer for most Americans.
I think 7s would have a chance if we developed it into an nba style game. 12 minute quarters, 13 man bench with unlimited subs that plays about 3 nights a week. Play it over summer and you instantly have a more interesting sport than baseball.

Nice high bar there...

But yeah. That's how I see 7s doing well in the US. Throw in the fact it'd be a collision sport you could play over Summer and Olympic prestige (correct me if wrong, but that seems very important for a sport over there) and I think there's a potential winner there.

I do think Union will beat out League though simply because Union has a lot more to sell than League.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Have any of you NH fellows ever been on the B&I Lions tours?

I was fortunate enough to have been at the 2nd Test against the Boks at Loftus, and also managed to hang out with a couple of guys from England.

To me, the B&I Lions tour, isn't about the profitability it generates, but rather the camaraderie it creates between various nations who love the Sport. For the B&I Lions fans it's not just about the day of the game and filling up the SH stadiums in red, but their daily experience while on tour.

The lads I met, went hunting, Elephant walking, Wine Tours and even flew to Zimbabwe to visit the Victoria Falls.

I really hope that these talks about it being the last series isn't true, as I'd love to host a few NH guys next time you're in SA.

@TRF_heineken No i haven't and would love to go to one, one day It's on the bucket list.

If it was down to the public i can't see the lions leaving but the trouble is that Unions are starting to clash esp with the calendar being looked at and I can therefore see it being a failing of the professional era unfortunately.

Although not having the french involved will help.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Soccer sides like Man U, Barcelona etc... Have been going for years and grown the market to one they currently make billions of dollars on, no reason that if games with NZ, SA, England, Aus and Ireland (the most marketable sides over there at a guess) that we couldn't do the same in the next ten years, on a smaller scale obviously. It's a lot better for everyone than Lions tours in the long run.

Exactly, look how long football has taken to grown in the States and that's club football and even then I'm not convinced by your Billions comment. Yet another competitor to US's oversaturated sports market not including their main sports. Where is the place for 15 a side Rugby? I am not including 7s as that is different sport. As Which Tyler has said I'm not convinced Americans are that interested in learning the rules to another sport as complicated as the 15s version of the game especially as they already have their fill of a collision based sport through Grid Iron football. 15s rugby will remain very much a niche sport in the US IMO.

I am just not convinced that huge swathes of Americans will turn out to consistently each year to watch 15s rugby, especially at international level to watch the US Eagles get pummelled by England, NZ, Australia, SA etc and pay for the privilege.

 

[Peat]

There's a decent niche of Americans who will never have enough collision sports.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

There's a decent niche of Americans who will never have enough collision sports.

Yeh i don't think there are any pro contact sports in the summer.

If the 7's World cup works in america i could see 7's creating a league or something esp with the party atmosphere it can bring.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

Union definitely has an advantage in that it has more grassroots but grassroots doesn't mean commercial success
Hockey and rugby probably have more adult players than football but they are dwarfed in the ratings

- - - Updated - - -

Also our national league organisation is much more organised than our national union completion since they all league teams are in the east coast, primarily the north

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Union definitely has an advantage in that it has more grassroots but grassroots doesn't mean commercial success
Hockey and rugby probably have more adult players than football but they are dwarfed in the ratings

- - - Updated - - -

Also our national league organisation is much more organised than our national union completion since they all league teams are in the east coast, primarily the north

Isn't the national league comp still semi pro though? I couldn't see any attendance figures on it but it doesn't seem to be particularly high considering it started in 2011.

Rugby union will never get the football ratings just because it will never be as historical It could still get decent numbers TBF.

If Pro rugby can succesfully expand it into 2 East and West pools with Canada involved next season i would say Union would be in a promising place

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

I'm rooting for Union (obviously) I guess I'm just a little pessimistic about things

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Getting back on topic a bit what size squad will be taken?

I mean the previous 2 tours have taken 37 players, but finished with a 42 man squad which i reckon will prob be what the Lions go with in 2017 (42) IMO esp with the quality of the Super rugby warm up games will have.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Start with 37 like the previous 2 then fly in cover for players who are injured, but their injuries are not tour ending and can still recover; and replacements for those whose injuries are tour ending.

 

[Peat]

38-40 is the reported number.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

38-40 is the reported number.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-un...---warren-gatlands-five-biggest-challenges-a/

It looks as if he will take from 38 to 40 players but the key is that everyone is given an opportunity to start before the first Test and that they all feel they have a chance of inclusion in that Test.

I read that too in the Telegraph (see above link). But what is this based on? Speculation or what Gatland has actually said. I personally wouldn't be opposed to say 38 or 39, as I can see a situation where you have to choose between Henshaw and Tuilagi and I'd rather take both; also maybe take 3 specialist flyhalves ( 3 of Sexton, Ford, Farrell and Biggar) instead of just 2 flyhalves (Hogg was taken as cover for both Fullback and flyhallf last time). I think the back three can be covered by 6 players e.g. North, Watson, Nowell, Liam Williams, Hogg and Halfpenny, compared to the last squad where 7 players were taken.

 

[Peat]

I'm guessing it slipped out of Gats mouth at some point.

I wouldn't be surprised if he decided to take two complete match day front rows.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

4 H
4 LH
4 TH
5 LKs
2/3 BF
2/3 OF
2 N8
24 forwards

3 SH
3 FH
4 C
4 W
3 FB
16 Backs
= 40 Players.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

4 H
4 LH
4 TH
5 LKs
2/3 BF
2/3 OF
2 N8
24 forwards

3 SH
3 FH
4 C
4 W
3 FB
16 Backs
= 40 Players.

I'd drop a wing for a 5th centre. Other than that, that's probably what it'll be. I'd go for:

1. McGrath, Vunipola, Marler, Dickinson (Although Gats will probably opt for Evans)
2. Hartley, George, Best, Owens/Baldwin (Whichever's starting for Wales at the time)
3. Nel, Cole, Lee, Hill
4. Itoje, Launchbury, Gray (Jonny)
5. Jones, Kruis
6. Henderson, O'Mahony (If unfit then Stander or more likely Lyds)
7. Warburton, Hardie, O'Brien (If unfit then take Stander/Lyds as an extra 6)
8. Faletau, Vunipola
9. Murray, Webb, Youngs
10. Farrell, Ford, Sexton
11. North, Nowell
12. Henshaw, Roberts
13. Davies, Joseph, Tuilagi
14. Watson
15. Williams, Hogg, Halfpenny

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I'd still go for a breakdown of:

3 LH
3 H
3 TH
5 LF
2 BFs (Henderson and Itoje if picked can cover 6)
3 OF
2 8s
21 Forwards

3 SHs
3 FHs
5 Cs
6 W/FBs
17 Backs.

Total 38 initial picked Squad. Cover and replacements to be flown in as and when necessary.

- - - Updated - - -

4 H
4 LH
4 TH
5 LKs
2/3 BF
2/3 OF
2 N8
24 forwards

3 SH
3 FH
4 C
4 W
3 FB
16 Backs
= 40 Players.

Tigs you can't count; that's 17 backs.

 

[Peat]

Props carry the highest workload in the game these days. You ask a lad to bench for the test team (30 mins) then for the dirt trackers mid week (30 mins) by the time you get around to the next weekend he'll be walking around the pitch like Godzilla reamed his anus. I'd be really surprised if he went for only 9 front rowers.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Going by the last 5 Lions' initial squads they have taken no more than 9/10 from rowers. The 2005 squad, which took 44 being the exception of taking 10; 4 of whom were hookers (and that squad was deemed too big by most). I don't see Gatland taking 12 Front rowers at the expense of Squad cohesiveness and also the front row playing enough/being battle hardened in time for the tests.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Going by the last 5 Lions' initial squads they have taken no more than 9/10 from rowers. The 2005 squad, which took 44 being the exception of taking 10; 4 of whom were hookers (and that squad was deemed too big by most). I don't see Gatland taking 12 Front rowers at the expense of Squad cohesiveness and also the front row playing enough/being battle hardened in time for the tests.

Yeh but the warm up games have neever looked this tough either.

And they are pros who have just come of the back of playing a 30 game season (Roughly) why would they need to get more battle harden.