To the New Zealanders

[Darwin]

Funny, Conrad smith did that exactly that once in this last game for the hurricanes. And I remember one game for the in 08 against SA he did that too and interestingly it was Kahui that got back and stopped the resulting movement from the linebreak (he was playing wing).

I'm not saying Kahui hasn't made mistakes like that because he has, no one is perfect. But overall I dont think he makes more mistakes like that than smith but I do think Kahui has added impact in his defense and he's better running back to snuff linebreaks and making important tackles to stop attacks resulting from linebreaks. I dont know if you noticed in the crusaders/chiefs last game one of dan carters line breaks was through Hika Elliot and Kahui was defending next to him in the line. Carter went clean through and Kahui had to stop turn and run back to make the tackle on carter, it was pretty impressive and typical of stuff Kahui has done for both the chiefs and AB's.

Gears a tough one, he was so impressive on the EoY tour, but playing Aus & SA is a whole other story and I think his short commings on defense could be exposed against these teams. may get a chance to try and prove himself in the tri nations. The most likely route through the World cup will mean NZ have to play both SA and AUS to win it.

Smith does make mistakes in defense (as all players do), but these a far fewer than the mistakes Kahui makes. I can't recall the tackle Smith missed in the weekend, but I do remember him once running up out of the line in defense and completely snuff out a Force overlap. The only time I see Smith out of the line in defense is in situations like this, whereas at times it's the only defense ploy Kahui uses. If you look at the defensive stats you will find that Smith has a better tackling percentage than Kahui.
foxsports.com.au:
Kahui: - 5.6 tackles / 80 mins at 78.1%
Smith: - 9.0 tackles / 80 mins at 85.9%,

Collated data from http://www.ruggastats.com (excluding this weeks games which aren't up yet):
Kahui - 6.1 tackles / 80 mins at 80.9%
Smith - 10.5 tackles / 80 mins at 87.3%

One-on-one you could probably argue that Kahui is a stronger defender. Therefore you may put the fact that Smith has a higher tackling percentage down to the fact that Kahui has to make a lot more difficult tackles, due to the fact his defensive positioning is not as good as Smiths.

My main criticism of him, is that he jogs to the line every time, does a little shuffle that isn't going to fool anyone ever, and then gets driven back 5m. He will do this five times a game. He doesn't create anything, he just links up and takes the glory. I don't see why noone else sees this. At least with Gear, he can break a game. And it's certainly easier to look special when Carter is directing the game with a great forward pack, than with Cruden and the Canes pack.

Guildford does get knocked back on defense occasionally, but certainly not five times a game as you suggest. Guildford has made numerous linebreaks this year (the stats I've seen suggest he makes almost twice as many linebreaks per run as Hosea Gear!); these linebreaks are made by running good lines into gaps, rather than using power to run through defenders. Just because he doesn't run through people doesn't mean his linebreaks are any less valuable in my opinion. What has been impressive this year is that whenever he has broken the line he has almost always managed to link up with his supporting players; therefore a large percentage of his linebreaks have lead to a tries. Though he hasn't scored that many tries this year he has made the last (or second last) pass on at least half a dozen tries that I can recall.

Guildford's work rate off the ball is probably second to none among NZ wings, and his defense is solid. I think he's in a very strong position to get an AB's recall, as his form at the moment is probably better than it was last time he played for the AB's.

Hosea Gear has not impressed me at all this Super Rugby season. He very poor against the Highlanders two weeks ago, and offered nothing for the Canes in the weekend, despite getting the ball in space quite a few times in the weekend. I think he deserves to be given the first test for the AB's this year, as he showed good form for the AB's on the end-of-year tour, however if I was picking the squad on Super 15 form Gear would be nowhere to be seen.

I agree with you I see it, his overall skills are poor , its a task for him to throw a decent pass. Hes ALL gas, we wont see him in the All Blacks again

There is nothing wrong with Guildford's overall skills. Though he can look awkward passing the ball, his passing is very good, and his decision making as to when to throw the pass has been very impressive this year. He is one of the most complete wingers in the country, and though he may not make the AB's this year, I expect he will get plenty of AB's caps in the future.

 

[Sam Owen]

Guildford would be even better if he didnt have duck feet. Its amazing how fast he gets considering his genetic setback. Still a good player IMO just maybe not an All Black at this stage.

 

[markshaw]

Guildford complete? Mate take a look at players such as Ben Smith , THATS a complete player? Guildiford a complete finisher. He doenst excell at anything else on the park , lets be real here

 

[Darwin]

Guildford complete? Mate take a look at players such as Ben Smith , THATS a complete player? Guildiford a complete finisher. He doenst excell at anything else on the park , lets be real here

I am quite aware that Ben Smith is a complete player... indeed I've been saying that continuously on this very forum for the last 2-3, whereas the majority of the population only seem to have realized this now

Perhaps you have a different definition of what a complete player is than me. My definition of a complete player is a player that is strong in all areas, with no real weaknesses.

Guildford excels in numerous areas, and has few weaknesses:
If he fast? Yes.
Can he break tackles? Yes.
Can he break the line? Yes (stats show the he breaks the line more times per carry than any other NZ wing apart from Kade Poki).
Does he score tries? Yes
Can he link up with his support? Yes, whenever he breaks the line he almost invariably links up with his support.
Is he a good defender? Yes.
Has he got a high work-rate? Yes, in my opinion his work-rate is second to none among NZ wings.
Can he kick? Yes.
Does he chase kicks well? Yes, he's possibly the best kick chasing wing in the country. Is he good under the high ball. Generally yes (though as I've mentioned he has dropped a couple in previous weeks)
Does he have good hands? Yes

How many NZ wings would get a 'yes' for all these questions?
Guildford can be indecisive with the ball in hand (as Nickdnz pointed out), but that is his only real weakness I can think of. If he continues to play well for the Crusaders into the playoffs I think he may well get an AB's recall for the Tri-nations.

 

[nickdnz]

I am quite aware that Ben Smith is a complete player... indeed I've been saying that continuously on this very forum for the last 2-3, whereas the majority of the population only seem to have realized this now

Perhaps you have a different definition of what a complete player is than me. My definition of a complete player is a player that is strong in all areas, with no real weaknesses.

Guildford excels in numerous areas, and has few weaknesses:
If he fast? Yes.
Can he break tackles? Yes.
Can he break the line? Yes (stats show the he breaks the line more times per carry than any other NZ wing apart from Kade Poki).
Does he score tries? Yes
Can he link up with his support? Yes, whenever he breaks the line he almost invariably links up with his support.
Is he a good defender? Yes.
Has he got a high work-rate? Yes, in my opinion his work-rate is second to none among NZ wings.
Can he kick? Yes.
Does he chase kicks well? Yes, he's possibly the best kick chasing wing in the country. Is he good under the high ball. Generally yes (though as I've mentioned he has dropped a couple in previous weeks)
Does he have good hands? Yes

How many NZ wings would get a 'yes' for all these questions?
Guildford can be indecisive with the ball in hand (as Nickdnz pointed out), but that is his only real weakness I can think of. If he continues to play well for the Crusaders into the playoffs I think he may well get an AB's recall for the Tri-nations.

The point is, he doesn't excell in anything. I disagree that he breaks tackles, and no number of stats will change my mind on that. If it wasn't for the fact that Fruean/SBW/Carter/Dagg/Maitland all require attention, Guildford would not make a quater of the number of line breaks. There are three things I agree he does well. He has a very good work rate, he runs good support lines and he is relatively safe under the high ball. However that is as far as it goes. For all of Gear's criticisms on defense, he's hardly missed a tackle this season, and the game against the Highlanders, he can hardly be criticized when the whole team looked pretty average.

My biggest problem about Gear crfitics, is that their argument always seem to be that he looks good in attack, especially at the lower levels, but he goes missing in positioning and defense, ands therefore cannot step up. He then goes on to have a sublime EoYT, and people then go on to say "That was against England, Wales, Ireland and Scotland, he won't do well in the Tri Nations. It just seems really strage that he is constantly said to be below par (when playing for the Canes and Wellington) regardless of his form, but when he does do well, people can't wait to see him changed for a more safe, but less talented winger like Guildford. Guildford looked pretty average despite all the hype in his All Black games, where as Gear scored five tries in four games.

 

[Darwin]

The point is, he doesn't excell in anything. I disagree that he breaks tackles, and no number of stats will change my mind on that. If it wasn't for the fact that Fruean/SBW/Carter/Dagg/Maitland all require attention, Guildford would not make a quater of the number of line breaks. There are three things I agree he does well. He has a very good work rate, he runs good support lines and he is relatively safe under the high ball. However that is as far as it goes. For all of Gear's criticisms on defense, he's hardly missed a tackle this season, and the game against the Highlanders, he can hardly be criticized when the whole team looked pretty average.

My biggest problem about Gear crfitics, is that their argument always seem to be that he looks good in attack, especially at the lower levels, but he goes missing in positioning and defense, ands therefore cannot step up. He then goes on to have a sublime EoYT, and people then go on to say "That was against England, Wales, Ireland and Scotland, he won't do well in the Tri Nations. It just seems really strage that he is constantly said to be below par (when playing for the Canes and Wellington) regardless of his form, but when he does do well, people can't wait to see him changed for a more safe, but less talented winger like Guildford. Guildford looked pretty average despite all the hype in his All Black games, where as Gear scored five tries in four games.

Guildford has broken tackles every game that I've seen him play this season. This is reflected in the game stats, but if want to ignore them that's entirely up to you. Personally I don't believe that Hosea Gear has ever broken a tackle in his entire career, and no number of stats will change my mind on that Playing in a good backline does mean that Guildford has more of an opportunity to make linebreaks, but he does take these chances very well. If Guildford was playing the All Blacks he would be in an even better backline, so there is no reason why he wouldn't make as many linebreaks for the AB's.

I've seen Gear miss numerous tackles this year, and likewise these are reflected in the game stats (though there is no point in posting them, as you wouldn't believe them anyways ). I've seen him caught out of position on defense quite a few times as well. His work-rate appeared to have improved at the end of last season, but it has been poor this season in my opinion. He has had plenty of chances with the ball in hand this season, but hasn't broken the line that often, but he usually makes it past he advantage line.

I don't think Gear had a 'sublime EoYT'. He had a couple of good games, but I don't personally think he was outstanding like many people seemed to think he was. He got a lot of credit for scoring five tries. He took these tries well, but I'd expect any international wing to have been able to finish 4/5 of these tries. While Toeava on the other wing didn't get all the plaudits that Gear got, he was equally dangerous in attack (if not more dangerous), made some great defense plays, and had a huge work-rate. Indeed one of Gear's tries was due to Toeava breaking 3-4 tackles then offloading to Gear for an easy try. I'm certainly not in the camp of those who think Gear 'wont do well in the Tri-nations' rather in the camp of 'he is unproven in the Tri-nations, so we have no idea how well he will go'; clearly Guildford et al. would all fall into the same category. Gear has never greatly impressed me at Super Rugby level, but in recent years has looked good at ITM Cup level, and has always looked impressive for the NZ Maori team. I'd imagine he will start he Tri-nations as the incumbent left wing, and if he takes his chances he should still be the incumbent left wing come RWC time.

 

[Black Heart]

I agree with you I see it, his overall skills are poor , its a task for him to throw a decent pass. Hes ALL gas, we wont see him in the All Blacks again

That's a fairly bold call considering he's only 22.

 

[Black Heart]

Guildford has broken tackles every game that I've seen him play this season. This is reflected in the game stats, but if want to ignore them that's entirely up to you. Personally I don't believe that Hosea Gear has ever broken a tackle in his entire career, and no number of stats will change my mind on that Playing in a good backline does mean that Guildford has more of an opportunity to make linebreaks, but he does take these chances very well. If Guildford was playing the All Blacks he would be in an even better backline, so there is no reason why he wouldn't make as many linebreaks for the AB's.

And what if Guildford had been playing for the Canes this year???

 

[tomred]

There are players playing themselves into and out of this years RWC squad. Guys like Ben Smith, Richard Kahui and Wyatt Crockett have to be there. I'd hate to see guys picked on reputation again like Afoa, Rokocoko, McAlister and Sivivatu who have been less than average in the Super Rugby comp.

 

[Darwin]

And what if Guildford had been playing for the Canes this year???

How Guildford would have performed if he had played for the Canes this year is unknown. I suspect he would have been less effective (as he was in an under-performing Hawkes' Bay team last year), but that is only speculation. However last time I checked though, the All Blacks, not the Hurricanes, will be playing test rugby this year. Therefore the question that needs to be asked when assessing potential All Black options is not "how good would they be if they played for Super franchise 'x' ", but rather "how good will they be if they play for the All Blacks".

 

[Grizzly]

No mention of Fruean in the centers?

 

[Black Heart]

How Guildford would have performed if he had played for the Canes this year is unknown. I suspect he would have been less effective (as he was in an under-performing Hawkes' Bay team last year), but that is only speculation. However last time I checked though, the All Blacks, not the Hurricanes, will be playing test rugby this year. Therefore the question that needs to be asked when assessing potential All Black options is not "how good would they be if they played for Super franchise 'x' ", but rather "how good will they be if they play for the All Blacks".

My comment was really directed more at Hosea Gear than Zac Guildford.

I do like Guildford, he is a quality player. And I'm not having a go at him as such but I don't think you give Gear the credit he's due. He's playing in a team that is traditionally disfunctional at the best of times and that doesn't take into account their current slump in form. Stats are all well and good but it doesn't reflect things like the amount of ball (and more importantly) the amount of quality ball both players get (or don't get) playing in their respective teams.

If you consider the Canes' match against the Force for instance, the only ball Gear got was scrappy and he was forced into 1 on 2 confrontations and yet he still held his own. Guildford would have played no better in such a situation.

 

[Black Heart]

No mention of Fruean in the centers?

Probably doesn't have the experience to force a spot over someone like Smith. Would like to see him get a run before the WC though.

 

[Darwin]

My comment was really directed more at Hosea Gear than Zac Guildford.

I do like Guildford, he is a quality player. And I'm not having a go at him as such but I don't think you give Gear the credit he's due. He's playing in a team that is traditionally disfunctional at the best of times and that doesn't take into account their current slump in form. Stats are all well and good but it doesn't reflect things like the amount of ball (and more importantly) the amount of quality ball both players get (or don't get) playing in their respective teams.

If you consider the Canes' match against the Force for instance, the only ball Gear got was scrappy and he was forced into 1 on 2 confrontations and yet he still held his own. Guildford would have played no better in such a situation.

Fair enough. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Gear is having a bad season, just that he's generally been solid rather than spectacular. I think he got quite a bit of ball in space against the Force, but wasn't able to do much with it. I have nothing against Gear at all; if I was picking the AB's RWC squad now I would probably pick him (and wouldn't pick Guildford). I just don't think that Gear is the superstar that many are making him out to be (last time I looked he was 3rd in voting for The Rugby Forum's Southern Hemisphere player of the year!). He may well turn out to be a superstar of the International game, but I think he needs to play some more tests before we can really say how good an international player he is.

 

[nickdnz]

Fair enough. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Gear is having a bad season, just that he's generally been solid rather than spectacular. I think he got quite a bit of ball in space against the Force, but wasn't able to do much with it. I have nothing against Gear at all; if I was picking the AB's RWC squad now I would probably pick him (and wouldn't pick Guildford). I just don't think that Gear is the superstar that many are making him out to be (last time I looked he was 3rd in voting for The Rugby Forum's Southern Hemisphere player of the year!). He may well turn out to be a superstar of the International game, but I think he needs to play some more tests before we can really say how good an international player he is.

Haha, I think I was the first one to nominate him. In honesty, I think I like Gear because he is the mold of what I like a winger to be. If I had it my way, Doug Howlett would not have been in nearly as many tests as he was in and Joe Rokocoko and Rico Gear would have been my starters. I like a winger to be able to score a 80m try from nothing, and anything less I often overlook. I think I forgive Gear any of his faults, just because some of his tries have been amazing, and he's the closer to Rokocoko's 2003 form, than Rokocoko. It's like Ben Smith, doesn't put a foot wrong, good kickers, catcher, creative etc, but he's not what I'd call the most exciting player, and if there is one position where I wan't an amazing speedstar, it's the wing. It won't always help win a match, but it does make it more entertaining.

That, and I don't like Guildford. Genuinely I was pleased he left the Canes. I can't see what the fuss is about, short of a good work rate.

 

[Darwin]

Haha, I think I was the first one to nominate him. In honesty, I think I like Gear because he is the mold of what I like a winger to be. If I had it my way, Doug Howlett would not have been in nearly as many tests as he was in and Joe Rokocoko and Rico Gear would have been my starters. I like a winger to be able to score a 80m try from nothing, and anything less I often overlook. I think I forgive Gear any of his faults, just because some of his tries have been amazing, and he's the closer to Rokocoko's 2003 form, than Rokocoko. It's like Ben Smith, doesn't put a foot wrong, good kickers, catcher, creative etc, but he's not what I'd call the most exciting player, and if there is one position where I wan't an amazing speedstar, it's the wing. It won't always help win a match, but it does make it more entertaining.

That, and I don't like Guildford. Genuinely I was pleased he left the Canes. I can't see what the fuss is about, short of a good work rate.

I would pick an in form Howlett (at his prime) over almost any other wing in world rugby. I still can't fathom why he wasn't selected against France in the quarters of the last RWC, as he looked to be in the form of his life....

If I remember correctly we had he Gear v Guildford debate before last years Tri-nations, and neither of them got in.... I hope that doesn't happen this time. Gear clearly had a much better season than Guildford last year, so thus far you are clearly winning the debate! I will wait to see whether he continues to dominate during the Tri-nations and RWC (which I really hope he does!) before I finally concede defeat

 

[Shaggy]

Haha, I think I was the first one to nominate him. In honesty, I think I like Gear because he is the mold of what I like a winger to be. If I had it my way, Doug Howlett would not have been in nearly as many tests as he was in and Joe Rokocoko and Rico Gear would have been my starters. I like a winger to be able to score a 80m try from nothing, and anything less I often overlook. I think I forgive Gear any of his faults, just because some of his tries have been amazing, and he's the closer to Rokocoko's 2003 form, than Rokocoko. It's like Ben Smith, doesn't put a foot wrong, good kickers, catcher, creative etc, but he's not what I'd call the most exciting player, and if there is one position where I wan't an amazing speedstar, it's the wing. It won't always help win a match, but it does make it more entertaining.

That, and I don't like Guildford. Genuinely I was pleased he left the Canes. I can't see what the fuss is about, short of a good work rate.

I've got to admit I was wondering about what all of the fuss was about when Guildford was selected for the AB's, and wasn't really a big fan, but he has looked very good this season, even when a number of the front line Crusaders backs have been out injured, he's been one of the better performers.

I get where your coming from with regard to traditional wingers, but reality is that the modern winger needs to have the skills more akin to a fullback, as they often interchange, particularly when fielding and returning kicks. The AB selectors certainly have shown a preference in recent years by play fullbacks on the wing.

I'm not advocating a kickfest/kick and chase kind of game, but it does make it a little harder for the opposition to counter a player if they know he's not going to run it back at them every single time

 

[Larksea]

stuff

good write up.

though I'd argue statistics dont paint the whole picture, even more so with defense stats because defense is such a team effort as well.

That would be where the fact Kahui is playing outside the worst 12 in NZ (Sweeney) and inside some pretty poor defenders as well (sivivatu has been very poor at times on defense, Nanai Williams has been very poor and Masnaga has had some good games and some bad games on defense).

A good example of that would be if we could somehow get Kahui's defense stats for the All Blacks. Without actually ever seeing them I'm 90% sure they would be a lot better than his overall stats for the chiefs.

Also statistis seem to miss a lot like tackle assists. I've seen players that have had great busy games on defense and then checked the stats only to see they were only credited for 4 tackles over 80min

Also worth considering that kahui came back from a major sholder injury this season. He surely wasn't 100% on defense for at least his first two games I'd say.

just hope both these guys are 100% for the WC, lucky to have such depth at 13 after it was such a major weakness for at least two world cups.

 

[nickdnz]

I've got to admit I was wondering about what all of the fuss was about when Guildford was selected for the AB's, and wasn't really a big fan, but he has looked very good this season, even when a number of the front line Crusaders backs have been out injured, he's been one of the better performers.

I get where your coming from with regard to traditional wingers, but reality is that the modern winger needs to have the skills more akin to a fullback, as they often interchange, particularly when fielding and returning kicks. The AB selectors certainly have shown a preference in recent years by play fullbacks on the wing.

I'm not advocating a kickfest/kick and chase kind of game, but it does make it a little harder for the opposition to counter a player if they know he's not going to run it back at them every single time

Well that's true to a certain extent, however I think the traditional wings are making a come back, especially since the laws in the breakdown changed in 2010. The advantage is now awarded to the attacking team, so the importance of taking the high ball and kick, is not what it was in 2009. Because of this, it may be the reason why Guildford and Ben Smith haven't gotten any All Black games after 2009, and even Cory Jane is looking less of a certainty. It is pretty evident that at least three of the options the All Blacks used on the wing in 2010 in Rokocoko, Gear and Ranger with Sivivatu also included in the EoYT but being ruled out with injury, have no strong kicking game.

 

[Black Heart]

good write up.

though I'd argue statistics dont paint the whole picture, even more so with defense stats because defense is such a team effort as well.

That would be where the fact Kahui is playing outside the worst 12 in NZ (Sweeney) and inside some pretty poor defenders as well (sivivatu has been very poor at times on defense, Nanai Williams has been very poor and Masnaga has had some good games and some bad games on defense).

A good example of that would be if we could somehow get Kahui's defense stats for the All Blacks. Without actually ever seeing them I'm 90% sure they would be a lot better than his overall stats for the chiefs.

Also statistis seem to miss a lot like tackle assists. I've seen players that have had great busy games on defense and then checked the stats only to see they were only credited for 4 tackles over 80min

Also worth considering that kahui came back from a major sholder injury this season. He surely wasn't 100% on defense for at least his first two games I'd say.

just hope both these guys are 100% for the WC, lucky to have such depth at 13 after it was such a major weakness for at least two world cups.

That's got to be the biggest understatement of the decade.