The Ukraine War thread

[Amiga500]

Okay I understand what your getting at.

If cipher updates are required or the system starts failing and you don't have control to be functionally independent of that you've failed at the quite basic procurement level.
Again if your procuring military equipment and allowing information to be classified from yourself you're failing at the procurement.

Have you never worked on an MoD job before?

Failure at procurement appears to be de rigueur!!

 

[General Melchett]

Nah, he stopped well short of any actual defences around Moscow - he basically started behind Russia's defensive lines, drove through some empty countryside for a bit, before pulling into a lay-by.
I'm sure he caused some shockwaves, but shit never got real

I remember experienced military commentators in the media at the time saying he had the capability to do it and how Russia's domestic security had been badly exposed. The Russian army sat back and let them drive through various checkpoints knowing they couldn't stop them. There were even reports that Putin had scarpered. The reason he shat the bed was that he had no plan and maybe no desire to hold on to power. He had just reached the end of his tether with Putin's incompetent defence minister mate.

 

[Amiga500]

Very much like where I work now. The software and hardware are produced with no consultation with customers or technical services who will be maintaining the analysers.

It's quite obvious that neither have been tested properly, in fact, one software update released to specifically fix a particular issue didn't even fix that issue.

Err, you don't work at the same place as me do you?!?

Probably not - we've mostly kids or people who have been here a long time and never learned the right way to do things, and a very small smattering of experienced people who have come in from outside during COVID etc and are constantly aghast at the ineptitude. I'd know if there were someone in here with 20+ years engineering in the RAF.

 

[Amiga500]

Funny you mention wrestlers because I had a thought about that earlier. Trump's cabinet are basically just a bunch of performers - people who have been involved in TV, media and journalism. If the Democrats are serious about winning back power in this surreal world, there is only one man who can lead them to victory.

DTA - Don't Trust Austin America!

 

[Amiga500]

Maybe now in terms of combat experience but in terms of equipment, it still lacks. They are being beaten by Russia due to equipment and manpower shortages. France and Britain could provide enough of both to tip the scales, they certainly outclass large chunks of what Russia is using.

Britain and France don't need to defeat Russia alone, they just need to give Ukraine the boost it needs to push them out.

If other EU nations contributed, even small amounts, it could remove Russia's key advantages.

Yeah, well - probably need to consider the nuances of that.

EU countries could provide a serious boost in airpower.

But on the ground - the war the EU armies are equipped for is the war of the 90s, or anti-insurgency operations of the 00s.
The Ukrainian-Russian war is nothing like either.

There essentially is no fog of war 3km either side of the front. So to significantly influence matters on the ground a whole means of denying airspace to drones would need to be created and deployed. Current world leaders? Ukraine. By a long distance. EU armies would be supplementing and very much under the instruction of Ukrainian commanders till they establish the differences between reality and pre-war doctrine. Don't see that going down well.

 

[McTallshort]

I remember experienced military commentators in the media at the time saying he had the capability to do it and how Russia's domestic security had been badly exposed. The Russian army sat back and let them drive through various checkpoints knowing they couldn't stop them. There were even reports that Putin had scarpered. The reason he shat the bed was that he had no plan and maybe no desire to hold on to power. He had just reached the end of his tether with Putin's incompetent defence minister mate.

Oh he absolutely scarpered. Turned off his private jets tracker and everything. Prigozen also shot down a few Russian planes. The coup was on.

 

[McTallshort]

Yeah, well - probably need to consider the nuances of that.

EU countries could provide a serious boost in airpower.

But on the ground - the war the EU armies are equipped for is the war of the 90s, or anti-insurgency operations of the 00s.
The Ukrainian-Russian war is nothing like either.

There essentially is no fog of war 3km either side of the front. So to significantly influence matters on the ground a whole means of denying airspace to drones would need to be created and deployed. Current world leaders? Ukraine. By a long distance. EU armies would be supplementing and very much under the instruction of Ukrainian commanders till they establish the differences between reality and pre-war doctrine. Don't see that going down well.

The Poles have set up a war school with Ukrainian instructors teaching NATO officers everything they have learnt....but they didn't say thank you apparently

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Well,then I invite you both to Ukraine and Russia, you definitely know everything better than your military and can kick everyone out everywhere. Why should French and British soldiers go somewhere if they have Rambo Erasmus and the whole General (!) Melchett

Acting like Britain and France apparently couldn't do anything to Russia whilst Russia has made minimal gains in months and made the greatest gains after months and months preparing and with the most favourable conditions they could hope for, launching the war entirely on their own terms.

It's never really been about who could win a conventional ground war, it's about political will and WMDs. Russia is already struggling, an influx of thousands of fresh, trained soldiers with tons of new equipment, who have been learning from the Ukrainians, would definitely knock them. What more does Russia have to call on that they aren't already? They've tried mercenaries, they've tried foreign soldiers and munitions, they've tried essentially press-ganging foreigners into their armed forces and still struggle. The only remaining step is conscription and shifting the nation to a total war footing. You think many would be willing to support that just to satisfy Putin's ego?

 

[Sour Patch Kid]

Fact Check: Did Europe spend more on Russian oil and gas than Ukraine aid?

President Donald Trump made the claim during his address to Congress.

www.newsweek.com

This highlights the issues in relying on a nation like Russia for your energy though
More money being given to Russia for oil and gas than it is giving in aid to Ukraine. Seems like that makes zero sense and is actually harmful to Ukraine in the end. You (collectively) are funding both sides and actually funding Russia more, then saying we need to keep funding Ukraine. How about stop the flow of money to Russia that they can use to finance the war?

 

[Saintjay]

Not great for the Ukraine.

 

[AlRums]

 

[McTallshort]

Fact Check: Did Europe spend more on Russian oil and gas than Ukraine aid?

President Donald Trump made the claim during his address to Congress.

www.newsweek.com

This highlights the issues in relying on a nation like Russia for your energy though
More money being given to Russia for oil and gas than it is giving in aid to Ukraine. Seems like that makes zero sense and is actually harmful to Ukraine in the end. You (collectively) are funding both sides and actually funding Russia more, then saying we need to keep funding Ukraine. How about stop the flow of money to Russia that they can use to finance the war?

In the UK before the war we got 5% of our energy from Russia..... although we did allow Russians to invest in London and launder their money like it was Christmas

 

[McTallshort]

Ok so the duty rumour is the Americans want a peace agreement but with the following caveats

Mineral deal with Ukraine which is worse than the one (for Ukraine) that was on the table Friday which it's understood Trump didn't like hence the fall out.

Weapons deal with Europe which will involve Europe spending it's frozen Russian money on weapons from the US and not to be used for Ukrainian rebuilding.

It's pretty certain that Russia will sign and continue to nibble at Ukraine making it a failed state which they can exploit so America gets peace and a **** tonne of money and mineral's.

 

[Amiga500]

Ok so the duty rumour is the Americans want a peace agreement but with the following caveats

Mineral deal with Ukraine which is worse than the one (for Ukraine) that was on the table Friday which it's understood Trump didn't like hence the fall out.

Weapons deal with Europe which will involve Europe spending it's frozen Russian money on weapons from the US and not to be used for Ukrainian rebuilding.

It's pretty certain that Russia will sign and continue to nibble at Ukraine making it a failed state which they can exploit so America gets peace and a **** tonne of money and mineral's.

Yeah, fuk that.

If needs be, Starmer et al do need to do their Chamberlain moment - which is rather misunderstood by many.

When departing for Munich, Chamberlain was under absolutely no illusions about the state of the armed forces.
That extra year meant it wasn't Gloster Gladiators and a handful of Hurricanes vs. Bf.109, Bf.110, Ju88 etc in Battle of Britain.

Churchill - notoriously useless at both strategical and tactical thinking - didn't grasp that so agitated from the sidelines, and its largely his version of history that was written.

The European armies, and perhaps more specifically the armaments industry, may need politicians to buy a bit of time to get production rates ramped up and divisions reequipped, retrained etc.

 

[General Melchett]

You could just about stomach it all if it was just Trump on a power trip to appease his domestic audience but the cosy relationship with Europe's aggressor is the biggest red flag of all. He's using blackmail and bullying tactics via his unchecked power on a key ally FFS. The trust is gone.

Incredible how the ocean apart argument doesn't apply to Israel who along with Russia seems
to be the two main beneficiaries since he took office. The billions blown supporting Israel curiously not an issue. A reward for helping him win doubt.

Europe needs to start showing balls and getting tough starting with Victor Orban who has a hotline to Trump and Putin. How can leaders speak freely in Brussels today knowing there's a mole in the room.

Another thing Europe has to do is iron out the cyber threat from China and start to thaw relations. Of America, Russia and China the latter is now looking like the least worst of the three. More trade with China and less with America is a pretty significant lever that Europe still has. Trudeau was right - fentanyl is just a bogus excuse to raise tariffs which are just a lever he has created out of thin air to be used to blackmail allies further down the line.

 

[Which Tyler]

So... it wasn't acceptable before - was both literal extortion, and there was no guarantee of security.
And this one is worse - but somehow supposed to be more acceptable.

Need to treat USA as - at best - an unreliable acquaintance, at worst, a hostile state

 

[ncurd]

I'm finding the concept of EU army now hilarious for obvious reasons.

 

[AlRums]

Trump to revoke legal status for 240,000 Ukrainians as US steps up deportations

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-plans-revoke-legal-status-ukrainians-who-fled-us-sources-say-2025-03-06/

 

[Yulia]

Acting like Britain and France apparently couldn't do anything to Russia whilst Russia has made minimal gains in months and made the greatest gains after months and months preparing and with the most favourable conditions they could hope for, launching the war entirely on their own terms.

It's never really been about who could win a conventional ground war, it's about political will and WMDs. Russia is already struggling, an influx of thousands of fresh, trained soldiers with tons of new equipment, who have been learning from the Ukrainians, would definitely knock them. What more does Russia have to call on that they aren't already? They've tried mercenaries, they've tried foreign soldiers and munitions, they've tried essentially press-ganging foreigners into their armed forces and still struggle. The only remaining step is conscription and shifting the nation to a total war footing. You think many would be willing to support that just to satisfy Putin's ego?

You forget that it's not only 1.5mln active and 2mln reserve resources. It's also around 31mln of mobilisation resource that doesn't take part in the war with Ukraine and kept for the worse scenario.Not to mention that it's also the largest nuclear arsenal (as well as a good system of its delivery). Putin's strategy is to show that he can win this war cheap and with small resources, by sending mostly "consumables" like prisoners, foreign contractors,new contractors from poor regions etc without any serious motivation,while from Ukrainian side there are good professional military+ very well motivated conscripts (who are defending their country, families, children) and they are well supported by Europe (less important) and the USA (more important).
To respond to your question: noone wants to satisfy Putin's ego. But if a foreign country sends its troops to Ukraine that means a participation in the war and already a direct threat to Russia.
If everything would be that pink as you describe,European countries wouldn't be in panic now asking Americans to protect them.
But as I said, I don't see any "threat of Russian invasion" somewhere anymore: putin is already old (he's turning 73 this year if I'm not mistaken)+time during war in Ukraine+time needed for an Army modernization etc etc and people don't really support war in Ukraine nor hypothetical WW3 if it's "Russian invasion" somewhere else. Most of Europeans seem to be also adequate enough to not start a war with Russia.
I don't want to discuss this scenario anymore, I think it's already mad and criminal even to think about it

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

You forget that it's not only 1.5mln active and 2mln reserve resources. It's also around 31mln of mobilisation resource that doesn't take part in the war with Ukraine and kept for the worse scenario.Not to mention that it's also the largest nuclear arsenal (as well as a good system of its delivery). Putin's strategy is to show that he can win this war cheap and with small resources, by sending mostly "consumables" like prisoners, foreign contractors,new contractors from poor regions etc without any serious motivation,while from Ukrainian side there are good professional military+ very well motivated conscripts (who are defending their country, families, children) and they are well supported by Europe (less important) and the USA (more important).
To respond to your question: noone wants to satisfy Putin's ego. But if a foreign country sends its troops to Ukraine that means a participation in the war and already a direct threat to Russia.
If everything would be that pink as you describe,European countries wouldn't be in panic now asking Americans to protect them.
But as I said, I don't see any "threat of Russian invasion" somewhere anymore: putin is already old (he's turning 73 this year if I'm not mistaken)+time during war in Ukraine+time needed for an Army modernization etc etc and people don't really support war in Ukraine nor hypothetical WW3 if it's "Russian invasion" somewhere else. Most of Europeans seem to be also adequate enough to not start a war with Russia.
I don't want to discuss this scenario anymore, I think it's already mad and criminal even to think about it

No I haven't forgotten and there is a very good reason Putin hasn't utilised that supposed mobilisation resource, they haven't got a hope in hell of equipping them. When talking about nuclear arsenals, all other discussions become pointless, either he will use them or he won't. If he will, conventional army comparisons are meaningless, if he won't then bringing them up is meaningless. I don't think even Putin is mad enough to use nukes simply to prevent being pushed out of Ukraine.

Absolutely nothing about what Putin is doing is "on the cheap" and I find it staggering you can claim that. Russia is spending more on it's military at the moment than the rest of Europe combined, making up something like 30% of it's total expenditure. That is not cheap by any stretch of the imagination. The real reason he's using "consumables" and foreign troops is he is desperately trying to avoid having to go to the next step of escalation, which will have a larger impact on the wealthier city dwellers and his oligarch friends. He's been throwing people into the meat grinder who have no political capital in Russia and are thus expendable. Eventually he will burn through these people.

Also the reservists you mention won't be top level Russian soldiers, they will be little better than the conscripts he's already using, possibly even worse as he won't have any carrot to bribe them with, only the stick. Russia burnt through their "elite" soldiers in the early years of the war, and they couldn't finish the job against a Ukraine much weaker and less prepared than it is now.

Ah so the Russians can use foreign troops as much as they want but anyone else does and it's not allowed? Do you not see what absolute ******** that is? If North Koreans can fight for Russia, a war that doesn't involve them in the slightest, Europeans can fight for Ukraine, a war that DOES involve them.

Europe is panicking because they are woefully under-prepared due to a combination of gutting their militaries and having gutless leaders for years who shied away from any sort of conflict. An unwillingness to take on Russia is not the same as an inability to. Russia is happy to take risks and use nukes as an ever present threat to give them the security to do so. The rest of the world moved away from that after the Cold War but Russia is embracing it again. Do as we say because we have nukes.

You don't see a threat of Russian invasion? Russia has been involved in 3 invasions of it's neighbours in the last 15 years and has openly stated they want a return to the USSR sphere of influence... That's a pretty big ******* threat and there is no guarantee that threat will vanish when Putin dies. For all we know, he may not even be the most mad among the people in power in Russia and someone even worse could take over.

The only thing mad and criminal is letting Russia get away with expansionist violence. If Russia can invade Ukraine because it deems there to be a threat on it's border then European nations can support Ukraine because they deem what is happening to be a threat on their border.